Recent US macro data point to a familiar late-cycle configuration: headline activity remains resilient, but underlying momentum is fading. Consumer spending entered Q4 on a firmer footing than expected, supported by solid real income growth earlier in the year and a strong starting point for holiday demand. At the same time, the labor market has clearly softened, with job growth slowing to a near-stall pace, unemployment drifting higher, and wage growth cooling to cycle lows.
