Q1 operational results in-line with expectations

CAML’s Q1 production performance was characteristically stable compared with the corresponding period of prior years. Given rates always increase at Kounrad as Kazakhstan exits its cold winter months, and with higher production levels expected at Sasa in H2 as construction activity concludes on the cut and paste back-fill transition project, we believe both operations are on course to meet guidance. Assuming costs stabilise around recent levels, we think this could drive dividend growth in 2024,

SP Angel Morning View: Gold $2,363/oz continues to surge as hedge funds extend bullish positions

VSA Capital Morning Miner 09/04/24 (Central Asia Metals)

Central Asia Metals (CAML LN) has reported Q1 2024 production results and as a result our full year forecasts are unchanged. Output across the three metals was down QoQ and YoY due to seasonal factors while management has highlighted that higher production at Sasa is due once construction is complete.

Central Asia Metals: 2023 Full Year Results

Central Asia Metals (CAML LN) reported full year earnings with net revenue of US$197m down 12% YoY (-1% against VSA estimate) owing to lower commodity prices and modestly lower output albeit comfortably within guidance. EBITDA of US$97m was down 27% YoY marginally below our estimate as the lower top line combined with inflationary pressure. However, group COGS ex-D&A increased 8% YoY, far lower than in-country inflation. A flagged increase in taxation in Kazakhstan meant that net income was US$3

2023 results: healthy margins in challenging markets

Weaker metal prices and slightly lower sales volumes saw earnings fall y-o-y as expected, though CAML nonetheless maintained a very healthy EBITDA margin, testament to the low operating cost structure of Kounrad in particular. The full-year dividend of 18p sees CAML yield an attractive 9%, and with capex projects at Sasa concluding this year, we see scope for dividends to increase further. M&A remains a priority, and we look forward to further developments in this area as 2024 progresses.

SP Angel Morning View: Gold prices hold firm as China moves to strengthen CNY after Friday fall

Central Asia Metals: Q4 2023 Operations Update

Central Asia Metals (CAML LN) has again achieved production guidance for the full year. Copper production in Q4 2023 was 3.4kt, down 4% YoY and up 2% QoQ resulting in 13.8kt of output in 2023, down 3% YoY and 1% below our estimate. Zinc production in Q4 2023 was 5.4kt, up 3% YoY and 6% QoQ with full year output of 20.3kt down 5% YoY but 3% ahead of our forecast owing to strong grades in the latter part of the year. This was comfortably within the guidance range of 19-21kt which is maintained for

2023 full-year production targets hit

CAML delivered another solid production performance in 2023, with full-year copper output at Kounrad coming in towards the upper end of the company’s guidance range and zinc and lead production at Sasa stabilising around the prior year’s level. The project to transition to more flexible and sustainable mining and tailings disposal practices at Sasa progressed significantly in 2023 and is on track for completion this year. This will mark the end of any significant capex call beyond sustaining. Gi

Full-year targets in sight after solid Q3

A typically stable performance at Kounrad and improving zinc grades at Sasa look to have CAML on course to meet its 2023 full-year production targets for copper, zinc and lead. Assuming metals prices hold around current levels through Q4, we think this will see CAML deliver another year of strong free cash flow generation and maintain its peer-group leading dividend returns. Capex requirements should reduce materially from next year as the project to transition to more flexible and sustainable m

SP Angel Morning View: Gold prices hold higher following US Treasury rally cautious Fed and safe-haven appetite

VSA Capital Morning Miner 10/10/23 (Central Asia Metals)

Central Asia Metals (CAML LN) has reported production figures for Q3 2023 demonstrating that the company is comfortably on track to achieve production guidance and our full year forecasts across copper, lead and zinc.

NextSource Materials - Initiation

NextSource is uniquely positioned to build a leading vertically integrated position, ex China, in the supply of Lithium-ion battery anode material which is essential for the Energy Transition. The company is commissioning phase 1 of its world-class Molo graphite mine in Madagascar and is in the final permitting process for its first Battery Anode Facility (BAF) to be located in Mauritius. The company is backed by Vision Blue, established by Sir Mick Davis, former CEO of Xstrata. On our calculat

Falcon Oil & Gas - Funding a Multi TCF Resource

Falcon has raised gross proceeds of US$8.9m via a placing and subscription at a price of 6p/share and the granting of overriding royalty interests. The net proceeds, together with Falcon’s existing cash resources (cUS$4.3m) will be used to fund Falcon’s net share of 2024 capex (cUS$9m) associated with the 40MMscf/d Shenandoah South Pilot Project, including the drilling, stimulation, and flow testing of two 10,000ft horizontal wells. The funds will also enable Falcon to fund its share of the cost

Initiation of Coverage - Critical raw materials for Europe’s green transition

Beowulf is advancing a portfolio of projects in Europe focussed on metals and minerals that are critical to enabling the continent’s transition to a greener economy. Awareness of Europe’s over-reliance on external supply sources for such vital raw materials is driving growing political support for ‘home-grown’ projects. Beowulf is strategically positioned to leverage this fast-evolving trend – its Kallak project in Sweden holds potential to deliver high-quality iron ore to lower the carbon-inten

Morning Note – 22 April 2024

Sintana Energy Inc. (TSX-V: SEI): Constrained test rate of 14 mboe/d at Mopane-1X. 10+ bn boe in place confirmed.

• Multiple tests over multiple zones in multiple horizons were run at the Mopane-1X exploration well. The flows achieved during the well test reached the maximum allowed limits of 14 mboe/d. The flow rate was constrained by the size of the available surface facilities. • The AVO-1 horizon encountered at Mopane-1X and Mopane-2X are in the same pressure regime, suggesting that the entire area (8 km diameter) between the two wells is connected. Overall, in the Mopane complex alone, and before dril

Touchstone Exploration+ (TXP, House Stock at 44p) - Closing of expanded bank facilities

LIBERUM: Ferrexpo: Production triples

SP Angel Morning View: Copper prices hit $9,700/t as China smelts concentrates for zero charge Tc/Rc

Jubilee Metals - Operational Update Q3 FY2024

Jubilee today reports its Q3 and third quarter operational results from its expanding operations in Zambia (copper) and South Africa (chrome and PGM). South Africa is on a growth trajectory with record chrome production of 409kt in the quarter (Q2 FY2024 381kt) and a monthly record in March of 145kt and production YTD of 1.13Mt (0.94Mt). Jubilee is well underway to its annual target capacity of 2,1Mt/yr especially with the new 300kt/yr chrome plant at Thutse expected to be operational in August

Transition to Mining Operator

Adriatic Metals has announced their transition from mining contractor to mining operator at Rupice. The transition is expected to continue to benefit the development and productivity rates being achieved at Rupice mine, as well as result in cost efficiencies and improved HSE standards. The company has also announced a short-term loan facility with Orion of $25m, that is drawable at the option of the company in Q3/4 this year.

Alien Metals - Hancock Project, Mining Lease Granted

Alien today reports intraday that the Western Australian Government has granted a mining licence for the Hancock iron ore project for a 21-year term. The granting of the mining licence is the latest milestone delivered by Alien as it advances the project towards development and production.

I3 Energy (I3E LN) - Canada royalty assets sale

I3 has announced the sale of the majority of its royalty interests in Canada, for US$24.8m cash. This allows the company to fully repay amounts drawn on its debt facility and create a working capital surplus, giving I3 significant additional funding flexibility going forward

Jersey Oil & Gas (JOG LN) - Share price fall creates opportunity

Since November, the JOG share price has moderated from a high of 250p to current levels of 149.5p. This is despite JOG having now made significant progress towards FID on its c.70mmboe Buchan project, with FID upcoming later this year. In our view this share price move is unjustified, with current levels further enhancing the value on offer, and making an attractive opportunity for investors.

Trinity Exploration and Production - Reserves Reduction but Solid Core Business

Trinity has announced a c28% reduction to its 2P reserves following a YE23 review. Despite the decrease in the Company’s 2P reserves, Trinity’s core business remains robust, with a reserves/production ratio of >12.5 years at YE23. Whilst there is significant potential for growth within the current portfolio, this will be difficult to unlock from the current balance sheet and we believe further financing will be required. We update our target price to 76p (from 202p), a c85% premium to the curren

Clean Power Hydrogen - New customers and licensees circling…

CPH2 has released FY23 results with the company completing the period with a slightly lower cash outflow from operations and a higher cash balance than forecast. Looking ahead, with a new and improved technical and engineering team, the company has committed to completing Factory Acceptance Testing of its first MW scale electrolyser, the 0.5MW MFE110, within the next three months. In our view, this will be a major milestone for the company which will demonstrate that its unique technology can be