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  • 09 Nov 18

Most popular equity research this week | 5 - 9 Nov

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Companies: BNOCMHRE/SCEELCOARBBSIXHTONAPHMURITVAGYEMECLIGZOOGDRDPPOPMAVOCSHDNLOXBKOOVHAYDGMDNSFREDXVALGTLYW7LRREPHPPURPAVCTMCLVTABURDISH
  • 06 Nov 18

THE MONTHLY November 2018

In addition to Hardman’s monthly analysis of client stocks, the thorny issue of market disruption – a popular theme currently - is also addressed. In a wide-ranging article, Hardman’s utilities analyst, Nigel Hawkins, assesses the impact that market disruption has already made. In some sectors, notably telecoms and aviation, market disruption has been apparent for many years, as the rise of Vodafone, Ryanair and easyJet demonstrates. However, in some sectors, such as oil and housebuilding, structural changes have been modest – the dominance of the big players endures. For investors, there is real interest in those sectors where changes are underway. The UK groceries market, which may shortly become a duopoly, is a case in point. And, intriguingly, who knows if there is a company currently languishing in AIM, which will attain a £50bn market valuation within the next decade?

Companies: OPM AVO AGY APH ARBB AVCT DISH BNO BUR CMH CLIG CSH DNL DPP GTLY GDR HAYD KOOV MCL MUR NSF OXB PHP RE/ REDX SCE SIXH TON VAL VTA W7L

  • 04 Oct 18

THE MONTHLY October 2018

We are in the midst of the Conference season for political parties and trade unions in Britain. We all have a lot on our minds, with generational constitutional issues to the fore, but these have come to the fore after many years of concerns building up about citizens’ ‘place in the world’.

Companies: OPM AGY ARBB AVCT DISH BNO BUR CMH CLIG DNL DPP GTLY GDR HAYD KOOV MCL MUR NSF OXB PHP RE/ REDX SCE SIXH TRX TON VAL VTA W7L

  • 03 Sep 18

The Monthly September 2018

September’s Hardman Monthly features an article from guest contributor, Tim Ward. Tim is the Chief Executive of the Quoted Companies Alliance (QCA), an organisation that champions the interests of small to mid-size quoted companies.

Companies: OPM AVO AGY APH ARBB AVCT BNO CMH DNL EVG GDR INL KOOV MCL MUR NSF OXB PHP RE/ REDX SCLP SCE SIXH TRX TON VAL W7L

  • 03 Sep 18

FY’18 – focus on PTSD drug development

Bionomics (BNO) is an Australian biopharmaceutical company specialising in ion channel drug discovery for central nervous system (CNS) disorders such as anxiety and post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD). BNO also offers contract and partnered discovery based on its proprietary technology platforms: MultiCore and ionX. The group sales model includes fees-for-service, licensing income, and royalties from successful partnered products. In fiscal 2018, its strategy has been to focus on the development of its lead candidate, BNC210, to completion of Phase II in PTSD – the RESTORE trial is due to read out next month, a potential value inflection point.

Companies: Bionomics
  • 24 Aug 18

Bionomics - PTSD programme on track for results in Q3

The fiscal year 2018, which ended in June, was a major transition for Bionomics as it realigned itself to focus on disorders of the central nervous system. This strategy hinges on the company’s lead asset BNC210, a negative allosteric modulator of the α7 nicotinic acetylcholine receptor, which has a potentially novel anxiolytic mechanism of action. The drug is in Phase IIb for post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) (with a readout expected in this quarter) and Phase IIa for agitation in the elderly.

Companies: Bionomics
  • 03 Aug 18

Most popular equity research this week | 30 Jul - 3 Aug

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  • 18 Jul 18

Bionomics - RESTORE trial completed, data this quarter

Bionomics announced on 9 July 2018 that it had completed treatment in its 193-patient Phase II clinical study of BNC210 for post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD). The RESTORE clinical study completed the treatment phase on time and the company stated that it intends to provide topline data by the end of calendar Q318.

Companies: Bionomics
  • 29 Jun 18

Most popular equity research this week | 25-29 Jun

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Companies: BNOSEED4T4CMHRE/SCEARBBSIXHTONAPHMURAGYCLIGHMLHINLGDRTRXSCLPCOSOPMAVODNLOXBKOOVRDTIMOEQLSYGENABZANSFREDXEVGVALGTLYPHPNXRAVCTMCLBUR
  • 29 Jun 18

The Monthly

We have analysed every IPO on the London Stock Exchange (LSE) between January 2015 and February 2018. Our analysis proves that, as expected, liquidity does dry up after float. The scale varies between markets and sectors.

Companies: OPM AGY ARBB AVCT BNO CMH COS DNL EVG GTLY GDR INL KOOV MCL MUR NSF PHP RE/ REDX SCLP SIXH TRX TON VAL W7L OXB

  • 08 Jun 18

Most popular equity research this week | 28 May - 8 Jun

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Companies: BNOCMHRE/SCEARBBSIXHPHTMTONVP/APHMURAGYSXXALTCLIGINLGDRTRXSCLPCOSKWSOPMAVODNLOXBRFXKOOVYGENABZANSFREDXEVGVALGTLYPHPAVCTMCLBURPLUSVLTY
  • 04 Jun 18

The Monthly

Hardman & Co recently welcomed Milan Radia to our roster of established, industry expert analysts. Milan has 25 years of equity market experience at major investment banks and in asset management, and has worked on many high-profile successful IPOs. In 2017, he was ranked the No.1 earnings estimator in the UK for his sector in the Thomson Starmine Awards. Milan has also been techMARK Analyst of the Year and achieved top three Institutional Investor sector rankings for his coverage of the software and telecoms sectors. In our lead article this month he gives an insight into his thinking on some key themes in the sector.

Companies: OPM ABZA AVO AGY APH ARBB AVCT BNO BUR CMH CLIG COS DNL EVG GTLY GDR INL KOOV MCL MUR NSF YGEN PHP RE/ REDX SCLP SCE SIXH TRX TON VAL OXB

  • 04 Jun 18

A big deal in oncology?

Bionomics (BNO) is an Australian biopharmaceutical company specialising in ion channel drug discovery for central nervous system (CNS) disorders such as anxiety and post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD). BNO also offers contract and partnered drug discovery based on its proprietary technology platforms: MultiCore and ionX. The group sales model includes fees-for-service, licensing income and royalties from successful partnered products. Itsstrategic focus is on development of its lead candidate, BNC210, to completion of Phase II in PTSD. BNO is seeking to divest or out-license its off-strategy oncology programmes, which is the focus of this report.

Companies: Bionomics
  • 30 May 18

Third Phase II trial of BNC210 begins

BNO is an Australian biopharmaceutical company specialising in ion channel drug discovery for central nervous system (CNS) disorders such as anxiety and posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD). BNO also offers contract and partnered drug discovery based on its proprietary technology platforms: MultiCore and ionX. The group sales model includes fees-for-service, licensing income, and royalties from successful partnered products. Its strategic focus is on development of its lead candidate, BNC210, to completion of Phase II in PTSD. It has also recently started a third clinical trial of this candidate, this time in a third CNS indication – agitation.

Companies: Bionomics
  • 29 May 18

Phase IIa in agitation of the elderly initiated

Bionomics announced on 23 May 2018 it has initiated a Phase IIa study of its α7 nicotinic receptor inhibitor for the treatment of agitation in the elderly in a hospital setting. Agitation is a common problem (13-24%) in patients with dementia, and we expect the trial to focus primarily on this population. It will enrol a target of 40 patients across Australia and is expected to provide top-line data in calendar Q119.

Companies: Bionomics

Research, Charts & Company Announcements

Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on Bionomics. We currently have 16 research reports from 2 professional analysts.

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(more news)
Date Source Announcement
03Sep18 09:55 EQS Hardman & Co Research: Bionomics Ltd (BNO) FY'18 - focus on PTSD drug development
04Jun18 06:30 EQS Hardman & Co Research: Bionomics (BNO): A big deal in oncology?
30May18 10:15 EQS Hardman & Co Research: Bionomics Ltd (BNO) Third Phase II trial of BNC210 begins
07Feb18 16:42 EQS Hardman & Co Research: Bionomics Ltd (BNO) initiation report: Channelling expertise in CNS drugs
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  • 02 Dec 19

Acquisition – 7% accretive in first full year

SDI has announced the acquisition of Chell Instruments; paying c.£4.3m for the business (FY 2018 EV/Sales and EV/EBIT of 0.9x and 5.5x) funded from cash and a new debt facility with net debt at year-end now expected to be c.£5.0m. SDI has shown that it can source and execute another accretive acquisition in what was a competitive tender bid process. We expect the acquisition to be c.7% accretive to EPS in FY 2021 and raise our target price by 25% to 75p to reflect the accretion as well as rolling forward our target year, implying an EV/EBITDA of 11.9x and adjusted P/E of 17.3x.

Companies: Scientific Digital Imaging
  • 21 Oct 19

Quarterly Research Outlook Autumn 2019

Following continued delays of a Brexit agreement, few sectors within the UK market have remained attractive to investors despite low valuations. One sector which has continued to outperform despite the political drama has been the UK video gaming sector (henceforth UK gaming), which we are fans of. We believe a combination of sector-leading growth, strong cash conversion and timely cyclical positioning support our positive view on the UK video gaming sector.

Companies: ABBY AMS ANX ARS ATYM AVON BLVN PIER BUR CGS CAML CDM CSRT TIDE CYAN DTG DEMG ELM EMR FPO FDEV GTLY GENL GHH GRI GEEC GKP HMI HAYD HEAD HILS HTG HUR IBPO IOG INDI JHD JOG KAPE KEYS KWS KCT KGH LAM LIT LOK MACF MANO MOD OXIG PCA PANR APP SRE PHC PMO RBW RMM RBGP REDD RSW RNO ROR SUS SCPA SEN SHG SOLG SOM SUMO TM17 INCE TWD TRAK TRI VNET VTC ZOO ZTF

  • 04 Dec 19

Cenkos: IXICO Plc -- Revenues growing and profitable

IXICO has reported a strong financial performance for FY19A built on continued commercial focus and a strengthened organisation. Revenues of £7.6m were up 40% and gross margin was up 600bps versus FY18A and the company delivered its first year of profitability since IPO. EBITDA of £0.5m was strongly ahead of our forecast (+£0.1m) and delivered an EBITDA margin of 6%. We have maintained our revenue growth expectations of 20% for FY20E and FY21E but have upgraded our profit expectations given the strong reported performance. We maintain our Buy recommendation.

Companies: IXICO
  • 06 Dec 19

H1 results: adjustments to clinical programmes

ReNeuron has announced its H1 2020 results; financials are slightly ahead of our expectations related to the identified slower recruitment of the Phase III PISCES trial. ReNeuron has made a number of positive clinical trial protocol changes to both the CTX and hRPC programmes to boost enrolment and accelerate clinical development, respectively, and we have included these changes into our forecasts.

Companies: Reneuron Group
  • 02 Dec 19

Cenkos: Creo Medical Group Plc - Cutting edge

Creo Medical continues to make strong progress on both development and commercial fronts. Following its direct entry into the US, the company recently reported its first commercial revenues from that market, building upon the broad commercial reach developed via its signed-up distributor network. While lead product, Speedboat, is making commercial progress, Creo expects to launch a further four endoscopic instruments on the CROMA Advanced Energy platform during 2020, significantly expanding the utility of the generator. To maintain this momentum, Creo Medical has announced it has conditionally raised £43m via an equity placing and will supplement this via an open offer to qualifying shareholders. We maintain our Buy recommendation.

Companies: Creo Medical Group
  • 28 Nov 19

LIBERUM: Futura Medical* - December data could be game-changing

Futura is set to report headline data from its P3 FM57 study in erectile dysfunction (ED) in December. We believe that the trial is significantly de-risked and hence estimate a >70% probability of some form of positive outcome.

Companies: Futura Medical
  • 03 Dec 19

SP Angel Healthcare Conditions

Collagen Solutions (COS.L): Interim results | Genedrive plc (GDR.L): Hearing loss assay kit demonstrates high clinical accuracy

Companies: Collagen Solutions Genedrive

  • 05 Dec 19

US licensing deal: Major Opportunity Within LupuzorTM Unlocked

ImmuPharma announced a major US licensing deal on 28 November 2019 with Avion Pharmaceuticals (“Avion”), a US specialty business that has a focus on Rheumatology, Women’s health (Lupus afflicts women more) Dermatology and other therapeutic areas. Avion have a strong marketing and commercialisation operation (with over 100 specialist sales reps). Avion has exclusively in-licensed LupuzorTM for the US market for Lupus (SLE) and other indications and agreed to fund an international Phase III clinical trial for up to US$25m. In addition, Avion will pay up to US$70m in milestones and a royalty stream tiered to 17% has been agreed. We have always believed that ImmuPharma could deliver such a successful deal for the US market (given the track record of the previous deal executed with Cephalon). This deal with Avion was aided by the strength of the clinical data (and safety profile) from the Phase III trial announced last year. Our detailed analysis of the respective cohort data, driven by the performance of the peptide in the auto ds-DNA antibody positive patients validated our assumptions of the value of LupuzorTM. We now see LupuzorTM as having the ability to generate blockbuster sales in the US (US$1bn+) alone (previously US and EU combined) – which when coupled with a royalty stream of up to 17% on revenues, could see an annual royalty to ImmuPharma’s bottom line of US$170m per year. What is particularly impressive about this deal is not only ImmuPharma’s ability to identify and execute a new licensing partner for LupuzorTM but also the opportunity available for ImmuPharma to find new distribution and marketing partners outside the US for LupuzorTM, for e.g. in Europe, where a new trial would not even be required given Avion’s funding commitment. This means that there is a distinct possibility that further licensing deals could follow bringing in an attractive additional royalty stream, and additional upfront and milestone payments. Outside of LupuzorTM, we believe that ImmuPharma has the potential to generate news-flow on its other pipeline assets including Nucant and UreKa. Based on the financial assumptions for this deal, and a lower risk profile (reduction in risk premium in our DCF model) we increase our target price (which is 50% discounted) from 76p to 100p / share. BUY.

Companies: ImmuPharma
  • 05 Dec 19

Avacta Group - Executive interview

In this video, Alastair Smith, CEO of Avacta Group, discusses the progress the company has made this year. This includes new and expanded partnerships, operational and financial achievements, and the advancement of AVA6000 towards the clinic.

Companies: Avacta Group
  • 04 Dec 19

Proving the accuracy and superiority of minibeams

The goal of Advanced Oncotherapy (AVO) is to deliver an affordable and more effective proton beam therapy (PBT) system, based on state-of-the-art technology developed originally at the world-renowned CERN. In the past 18 months, the project has been de-risked through important technical milestones. AVO is now working on the verification and validation phase, prior to CE marking and LIGHT being used on the first patients. Meanwhile, AVO has entered into a research collaboration with the Cleveland Clinic aimed at proving the accuracy of targeting cancerous tissue, and sparing normal tissue, with proton minibeams in comparison with other methodologies.

Companies: Advanced Oncotherapy
  • 18 Jul 19

FY results; acquisitions to fully benefit FY 2020

Full-year results to 30 April 2019 were in line at the revenue line but 5% (£0.1m) better than expected at the adjusted pre-tax profit level. Underpinned by c.5.5% organic growth, the 20% and 26% increases in revenue and adjusted EBITDA were driven by full-year contributions from ATC and QSI, acquired in FY 2018, as well as five acquisitions in FY 2019. Notable was the 35% increase in free cashflow. Additional investments into Sentek, Atik, Graticules and Astles and the integration of ATC with Thermal Exchange in FY 2020 should benefit the businesses in FY 2021. We upgrade our FY 2020 adjusted EPS by 7% as well as introduce FY 2021 forecasts, which indicate 13% EPS growth. The company indicates that it expects to add at least one new business in FY 2020, which will be incremental to these forecasts. We are raising our target price by 9% to 60p, reflecting the improved gross margins and stronger underlying cashflow.

Companies: Scientific Digital Imaging
  • 25 Nov 19

Elegant and effective treatment for Erectile Dysfunction

Futura Medical is rapidly approaching a major inflection point as the results of a pivotal Phase III study (FM57) for its lead compound, MED2005, are due to read out in December. MED2005 is a fast-acting glyceryl trinitrate gel that addresses erectile dysfunction (ED). The FM57 data is expected to be positive and will influence the design of the remaining Phase III trial (FM59) required for US approval (and possibly Europe too). This data will also fuel licensing discussions with potential partners. The commercial opportunity in ED is sizeable, although addressing the various elements of the market segments and different geographies optimally will, in our view, be critical. Our DCF-based model employs conservative assumptions and currently values Futura Medical at £127m, equivalent to 62p a share.

Companies: Futura Medical
  • 02 Dec 19

Interims – VISITECT CD4 starts to deliver on potential

Interim results were in line with the 22 October trading update, reflecting the financial benefits of closing its German business and selling the infectious disease business. Revenues from continuing operations increased 6% to £4.5m, largely reflecting the growth in Food Intolerance (+6% to £4.1m). This resulted in an adjusted EBITDA and pre-tax loss of c.£0.25m (vs. -£0.3m) and c.£0.35m (vs. -£0.5m), respectively. Omega also announced a further order from Nigeria for VISTECT CD4, which is contingent on approval in that market, but could be shipped by the FY year-end. We are not changing CD4 forecasts at this time until there is clarity over MoH approval. We make minor changes, however, to our FY forecasts to reflect the adoption of IFRS 16, which reduces adjusted pre-tax profits by c.£60k in both years. Year-end net debt is unchanged at c.£0.8m. We leave our target price unchanged at 25p.

Companies: Omega Diagnostics Group
  • 03 Dec 19

Cenkos: Collagen Solutions Plc -- Continued momentum

Collagen Solutions has reported results for the six-months to September 2019 (H1/20). As announced with the October Trading Update, revenues grew 14.4% to £2.23m for the period. Revenues were driven by the Core business which delivered 56% growth. The business acquired four new contracts and ten new customers during the period. The company remains engaged with its notified body in relation to ChondroMimetic, with the changing medical device regulatory environment limiting visibility on the timing of approval. We maintain our Buy recommendation.

Companies: Collagen Solutions
  • 07 Sep 16

N+1 Singer - Futura Medical - Stellar data from pivotal MED2002 (Eroxon™) trial

Futura Medical has announced stellar data from the first clinical trial of MED2002 (Eroxon™). The data shows not only strong efficacy vs. placebo (p=0.0001), but also an excellent safety & tolerability profile and a faster onset of action than currently approved ED products. We believe the market potential is significant, and will update our forecasts as soon as the commercialisation strategy for the product has been clarified. In our view, the product addresses a significant unmet need: it has been reported that sildenafil (Viagra® and generics) is contraindicated in c. 7.5% of patients otherwise eligible for therapy. In addition, a proportion of patients will likely prefer Eroxon™ over sildenafil as a result of its fast onset of action and topical administration. We re-iterate our highly positive stance on Futura Medical.

Companies: Futura Medical