Research, Charts & Company Announcements
Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on MESOBLAST LTD. We currently have 5 research reports from 1 professional analysts.
Frequency of research reports
Research reports on
Tightening focus to extend runway
21 Sep 16
Mesoblast cut its cash burn by 15% in FY16 to US$90m, and guided for a further ~25% reduction in FY17, which will give it headroom to fund the Phase III heart failure (HF) trial that Teva relinquished in June. It has ~12 months of cash runway plus a US$90m equity finance facility, which will give a further 12 months’ runway. It expects to report interim analyses of three Phase III programmes by end Q117, including the HF trial. We lower our valuation ahead of these potential catalysts to A$1.5bn from A$1.8bn (A$3.84 per share from A$4.67), due to lower forecast uptake in HF and removal of two low-priority tier two programmes.
Teva returns rights to cardiovascular programme
08 Jul 16
Teva has relinquished all rights to cardiovascular applications of Mesoblast’s mesenchymal precursor cell (MPC) technology, as it focuses on its core CNS and respiratory interests. Mesoblast will seek a new partner with a cardiovascular focus at the appropriate time. It has entered an A$120m (~US$90m) equity finance facility with Kentgrove Capital to fund the ongoing Phase III CHF trial and a 600-patient confirmatory trial (estimated cost ~US$90m), and has brought forward the interim futility analysis to Q117. We have revised our development timelines and lower our valuation to A$1.8bn from A$2.8bn (A$4.67 from A$7.36 per share).
CHF Phase III clears interim safety analysis
11 May 16
In its Q3 FY16 results presentation Mesoblast revealed the Phase III trial of Revascor in CHF cleared its first interim safety analysis; but, following FDA advice, no information was released on surrogate measures of efficacy. Mesoblast and Teva will update the market on timelines for the CHF Phase III programme later this quarter, while RA and GvHD data are expected next quarter. Mesoblast maintained a reduced cash burn of US$22m in Q3, giving it a cash runway to end FY17 on our estimates. Our valuation is unchanged at A$7.36 per share ahead of the CHF programme update.
Impressive signs of efficacy in rheumatoid arthritis
18 Feb 16
Mesoblast has reported impressive efficacy data from the first cohort of the Phase II trial of its mesenchymal precursor cell (MPC) product in rheumatoid arthritis (RA), ahead of full results due in Q316. Key catalysts next quarter will be the first interim analysis from the pivotal MPC-150-IM heart failure trial, together with an update to trial timelines following the halving of the trial to 600 patients. The launch of Temcell in Japan for graft vs host disease this quarter will bring a royalty stream from partner JCR Pharmaceuticals. We lift our valuation to A$7.36 per share (from A$7.20).
Headway on positive developments
23 Jul 15
Mesoblast is steadily advancing its pipeline, presenting positive Phase II data at the American Diabetes Association in June for MPC-300-IV in moderate-to-severe diabetic nephropathy. The company is seeking an accelerated regulatory path on findings in a large patient population with little alternative for treatment. The recent agreement with Celgene, which entailed a net A$58.5m equity purchase in return for first right of refusal on products in certain disease areas, provides Mesoblast with a capital injection and potential development/commercialisation partner. Meanwhile, an imminent regulatory decision in Japan for MSC-100-IV in acute graft vs host disease (aGvHD) could prove a significant share price catalyst. If approved, MSC-100-IV would be Mesoblast’s first product to market.
08 Dec 16
Elderstreet stake acquired 02 GENERAL NEWS Globalworth premium In this issue Venture capital firm Draper Esprit has taken a 30.8% stake in venture capital trust manager Elderstreet. Both investment managers focus on the technology sector and they will be able to co-invest. Elderstreet has investments in a number of AIM-quoted companies through its VCTs. The purchase was funded by an issue of Draper Esprit shares worth just over £250,000. Simon Cook, the chief executive of Draper Esprit, is a former partner at Elderstreet so he knows the business and the people who run it, although he did leave more than 14 years ago. Cook has previously acquired portfolios from 3i and Cazenove, two other firms where he has worked. Draper Esprit has an option to acquire the remaining shares in Elderstreet, which has more than £25m under management. Adding Elderstreet to the group enables Draper Esprit to offer investors a range of EIS funds, VCTs and an ISA qualifying listed evergreen patient capital fund. The enlarged group has venture capital assets under management of more than £350m. At the end of September 2016, Draper Esprit had a net asset value of 352p a share, which is similar to the current share price. The June 2016 flotation price was 300p a share. Draper Esprit is quoted on Ireland’s Enterprise Securities Market as well as AIM.
N+1 Singer - Morning Song 05-12-2016
05 Dec 16
RTHM is acquiring a profitable Canadian listed mobile specialist for equivalent of US$42.5m consideration in shares (88.235m). This helps adds to two growth vectors RTHM is targeting; (i) adds unique exclusive audience (10m unique) and (ii) Exclusive demand Yahoo and Facebook. The business has 15 premium and owned and operated apps which provide users with rewards for activity. The business is expected to deliver c$9m of EBITDA in FY18 including $2m of cost synergies. This equates to just 4.7x EV/EBITDA. This marks what we see the first step in RTHM activity to scale the business and deliver on margin potential (see our initiation notes). Our initial estimates for EPS revisions are very significant - for FY18 are 2.3 cents (currently 0.6) and for FY19 4.3 (currently 2.5). There is a call at 830 for investors and we will revise post this.
Exponential growth now in sight
07 Dec 16
The best things in life are worth waiting for, or at least that seems to be the case with Kromek, a pioneering radiation detection expert. Since listing on AIM at 51p back in October 2013, the company has not only been busily refining and field testing its next generation CZT (cadmium zinc telluride) technology, but importantly also securing a raft of new orders.
N+1 Singer - Morning Song 09-12-2016
09 Dec 16
This morning’s AGM Statement confirms that trading in the first four months of the year to 31st October was in line with expectations. Revenue was slightly above the prior year period and cash collection has remained strong. The Group has reiterated its commitment to maintaining a progressive dividend policy. The statement is encouraging and we therefore leave our forecasts unchanged. We note the attractions of a 5% dividend yield and consider the shares inexpensive at 4.5x FY’17 EV/EBITDA.
Small Cap Breakfast
07 Dec 16
Creo Medical group—Schedule 1 update.. £20m raise. Expected market cap £61.2m, admission expected 9 December. ECSC—Schedule 1 from provider of cyber security services. Raising £5m. Vendor sale £0.8m. Target date 14 Dec. Expected market cap £15m. RM Secured Direct Lending - The secured direct lending fund intends to float on the Main Market on 15 December raising up to £100m
N+1 Singer - Morning Song 06-12-2016
06 Dec 16
With FY16 volume and revenue already disclosed in the pre-close, the focus in today’s prelims is on PBT (£100.3m versus our £101m) and EPS (96.8p versus our 95.4p). No special dividend triggered this year (none forecast) and DPS is held at 46.8p (N1SE: 48.0p). On end markets, recent commentary is reiterated – the core business is growing, whilst consumer electronics will be subdued in the current year (competitive capacity from Solvay). On currency, there will be a material benefit in the current year (a little more than the £14m to £15m previously indicated), and a further tailwind next year if current rates are maintained (quantum TBC). There is also an investment of £10m today in a minority interest in Magma Global, Victrex’ oil and gas mega programme partner. Although the share price is now close to our TP of 1730p, we feel that there is enough in today’s announcement to retain a positive stance on medium term opportunities with strong cashflow and a special dividend potentially to look forward to in the current year.