Research, Charts & Company Announcements
Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on MESOBLAST LTD. We currently have 7 research reports from 1 professional analysts.
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Funding to deliver key data in 2017
05 Apr 17
Mesoblast has raised US$40m (gross) through a placement of 26.25m shares at A$2.00/share. The cash enables continued funding of the key MPC-150-IM Phase III heart failure (HF) study where an interim futility analysis is underway. We expect Q4 data from the Phase III in paediatric graft vs host disease (GvHD); Mallinckrodt has an option on partnering GvHD. Other projects can also be funded. Also in H2, top-line data from the NIH-funded Phase IIb study in end-stage HF with an LVAD may be reported. The indicative value has been increased to A$1.72bn from A$1.67bn to reflect reduced potential FY18 cash needs. The indicative value per share drops to A$4.02 from A$4.16 due to the increased dilution.
Continued positive RA responses
28 Feb 17
Statistically significant area under the curve analysis from Mesoblast’s Phase II stem cell product in refractory rheumatoid arthritis (RA) shows that the week 12 positive responses are maintained for 39 weeks. This suggests that the indication could progress into pivotal studies and may attract potential partners. We have increased the RA probability to 35% (formerly 20%). Mesoblast has entered a nine-month exclusive negotiation with Mallinckrodt (for an A$29.6m investment) on chronic low-back pain and graft vs host disease in transplantation. We have increased our indicative value for Mesoblast to A$1.67bn (A$4.16/share) from A$1.47bn.
Tightening focus to extend runway
21 Sep 16
Mesoblast cut its cash burn by 15% in FY16 to US$90m, and guided for a further ~25% reduction in FY17, which will give it headroom to fund the Phase III heart failure (HF) trial that Teva relinquished in June. It has ~12 months of cash runway plus a US$90m equity finance facility, which will give a further 12 months’ runway. It expects to report interim analyses of three Phase III programmes by end Q117, including the HF trial. We lower our valuation ahead of these potential catalysts to A$1.5bn from A$1.8bn (A$3.84 per share from A$4.67), due to lower forecast uptake in HF and removal of two low-priority tier two programmes.
Teva returns rights to cardiovascular programme
08 Jul 16
Teva has relinquished all rights to cardiovascular applications of Mesoblast’s mesenchymal precursor cell (MPC) technology, as it focuses on its core CNS and respiratory interests. Mesoblast will seek a new partner with a cardiovascular focus at the appropriate time. It has entered an A$120m (~US$90m) equity finance facility with Kentgrove Capital to fund the ongoing Phase III CHF trial and a 600-patient confirmatory trial (estimated cost ~US$90m), and has brought forward the interim futility analysis to Q117. We have revised our development timelines and lower our valuation to A$1.8bn from A$2.8bn (A$4.67 from A$7.36 per share).
CHF Phase III clears interim safety analysis
11 May 16
In its Q3 FY16 results presentation Mesoblast revealed the Phase III trial of Revascor in CHF cleared its first interim safety analysis; but, following FDA advice, no information was released on surrogate measures of efficacy. Mesoblast and Teva will update the market on timelines for the CHF Phase III programme later this quarter, while RA and GvHD data are expected next quarter. Mesoblast maintained a reduced cash burn of US$22m in Q3, giving it a cash runway to end FY17 on our estimates. Our valuation is unchanged at A$7.36 per share ahead of the CHF programme update.
Impressive signs of efficacy in rheumatoid arthritis
18 Feb 16
Mesoblast has reported impressive efficacy data from the first cohort of the Phase II trial of its mesenchymal precursor cell (MPC) product in rheumatoid arthritis (RA), ahead of full results due in Q316. Key catalysts next quarter will be the first interim analysis from the pivotal MPC-150-IM heart failure trial, together with an update to trial timelines following the halving of the trial to 600 patients. The launch of Temcell in Japan for graft vs host disease this quarter will bring a royalty stream from partner JCR Pharmaceuticals. We lift our valuation to A$7.36 per share (from A$7.20).
20 Apr 17
Although the last two months have seen a broadly neutral performance from the UK healthcare sector compared to a significantly more volatile 6 months prior, we continue to expect macro-events and increased geo-political risk to result in an overall neutral performance from the sector over the next period. However, company specific news is likely to drive a strong outperformance from selected mid-market companies. We retain our neutral sector stance whilst highlighting those we expect to outperform.
N+1 Singer - Small-cap quantitative research - Growth style screen revamp and 10 focus stocks
06 Apr 17
We have reviewed the performance of our consistent growth screen since the previous refresh on 27 September 2016 and revamped the selection parameters to focus more on forecast sales and EPS growth going forward. In the period under review the consistent growth style screen outperformed the small-cap benchmark by c. 6% and underperformed the microcap index by a similar amount. Interestingly, although growth doesn’t always seem to be defensive as might be expected, however it appears right to buy growth on dips caused by or coincident with wider market volatility. In the new forecast growth screen we take a close look at 10 focus stocks. We will monitor performance and refresh it in three to four months time.
N+1 Singer - Morning Song 24-04-2017
24 Apr 17
First Derivatives (FDP LN) FY slightly ahead as strong trading momentum continues | Goals Soccer Centres (GOAL LN) A potentially exciting corporate development | mporium Group (MPM LN) 2016 results: course set for exciting 2017 | Vectura Group (VEC LN) VR315 risk outweighs longer-term potential
24 Apr 17
Lok’nStore* (LOK): Growth supported by a strong balance sheet (CORP) | Mortice* (MORT): UK acquisition (CORP) | Avacta* (AVCT): Another milestone – 1st non-therapeutics licence (CORP) | Petra Diamonds (PDF): Trading update and Q3 results (BUY) | Nasstar* (NASA): Growth and margin focus (CORP)
N+1 Singer - Vectura Group - VR315 risk outweighs longer-term potential
24 Apr 17
Following a review of product-level forecasts, we have reduced FY2017-18e revenue forecasts by 6.6% & 10.9% respectively. Following Mylan’s generic Advair® setback, we have also downgraded the likelihood of success for VR315 in the US. Although we remain impressed by the depth of Vectura’s pipeline, the potential valuation upside does not currently outweigh the risk of VR315 non-approval or delayed approval. We downgrade to Sell ahead of the 10th May GDUFA date with a TP of 131p (from 202p).