Research, Charts & Company Announcements
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YPB GROUP LTD
YPB GROUP LTD
Upgrading on guidance
10 Jun 16
YPB Group (YPB) combines patented anti-counterfeiting technology with security packaging solutions, consulting and forensic services to help businesses protect their brands from the risks of counterfeiting and product diversion. The company recently completed a A$4.54m share placement and provided guidance to the market for FY17 profit before tax of A$5m. We have incorporated this guidance and the effect of the share placement into our forecasts, resulting in a 24% upgrade to our FY17e PBT to A$5.4m. Our DCF valuation is A$0.43/share (A$0.44 previously) following the upgrade and after incorporating the additional 18.91m shares in issue.
Raises A$4.5m via an institutional placement
24 May 16
YPB Group (YPB) has completed an institutional placement of 18.75m shares at A$0.24/share raising A$4.5m. The placement was oversubscribed and brought six new institutions to the register. The company plans to use the net proceeds to accelerate conversion of its business opportunity pipeline into recurring revenues, expand into new markets and enhance its solutions suite through R&D investment. The placement follows an announcement by YPB last week that it expected to breakeven by Q117 and deliver a pre-tax profit of A$5m for FY17.
FY17 PBT guidance of A$5m
19 May 16
YPB Group (YPB) combines patented anti-counterfeiting technology with security packaging solutions, consulting and forensic services to help businesses protect their brands from the risk of counterfeiting and product diversion. YPB has announced that it expects to reach cash flow break-even by end Q117 and to deliver profit before tax of A$5m for the year ending 31 December 2017. This is the first time the company has given guidance for FY17 and follows a spate of successful contracts for the group, the latest being a memorandum of understanding to supply its technology to global packaging group Orora. YPB’s guidance is 16% ahead of Edison’s FY17 PBT forecast.
Connecting in the Americas
30 Mar 16
YPB Group has secured a three-year contract to provide its invisible supply chain authentication solution to a major US casual footwear brand, with its tracer technology set to be incorporated in 70% of the brand’s entire production. The contract, believed to be with Crocs, is the second major transaction secured by YPB in the Americas this quarter. It follows further support for YPB’s product in China with Beijing Sandun Card Technology choosing YPB’s anti-counterfeit technology for security passes for the People’s Procuratorate of Beijing Municipality. Our DCF valuation is A$0.44/share, having incorporated the recently completed A$7.8m capital raise.
Connecting to protect and detect
12 Nov 15
YPB Group has completed the acquisition of privately-held proximity marketing company nTouch for A$4.5m in shares at 35c/share. The acquisition extends its anti-counterfeiting expertise in B2C and positions it as one of the only companies globally to offer end-to-end counterfeit protection solutions. We have incorporated nTouch into our forecasts and included some recent contract wins. This has resulted in both an upgrade to our CY15e and CY16e forecasts and an increase in our DCF valuation to A$0.50/share from A$0.37/share previously.
01 Nov 16
Since our last outlook note, Quadrise has begun to supply MSAR for extended LONO sea trials, paving the way for commercial adoption from calendar H217 onwards. In August it signed a memorandum of understanding with clients in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA), which is a key enabler for progressing the production-to-combustion pilot there. In October it completed a placing and open offer raising a total of £5.25m (gross). This should enable it to transition comfortably to the commercial phase on successful completion of the LONO and KSA trials.
GTL transaction not going ahead
01 Dec 16
Intelligent Energy (IEH) has announced that the deal to acquire the Energy Management Business of GTL will not now be consummated. The move leaves management free to concentrate on driving sales of commercially ready B2B products, which is a key element of its strategy. We adjust our FY17e revenue estimate while leaving our pre-exceptional losses and cash-flow forecasts unchanged.
GMP FirstEnergy ― UK Energy morning research package
30 Nov 16
Gran Tierra (GTE CN)1, 6; BUY, C$5.50: Equity financing and acquisition of two blocks from Ecopetrol | Northern Petroleum (NOP LN)1; SPECUATIVE BUY, £0.15: Farm out and equity issue | President Energy (PPC LN) (not covered): IFC Equity Subscription | Primeline Energy (PEH CN) (not covered): 2Q16 Results ended 30 September 2016 | Faroe Petroleum (FPM LN)6 ; BUY, £1.20: Oda update in Norway | Jersey Oil & Gas (JOG LN)1 ; Under Review: Placing | SacOil (SAC LN/SCL SJ)1 : SPECULATIVE BUY, £0.016, Trading Update
24 Nov 16
Quixant* (QXT): Gaming gains (CORP) | SCISYS* (SSY): Bringing good news from Germany (CORP) | Hayward Tyler Group*: Contract wins (CORP) | Sound Energy (SOU): TE-7 flow rate and fund raise (BUY) | Water Intelligence* (WATR): Growth and improving returns in a defensive market (CORP) | Imaginatik* (IMTK): Interim trading update (CORP)
Operating profits and net cash position – restored; market outlook – precarious
01 Dec 16
The turnaround was noticeable Lonmin’s full-year (September-ending) results were ahead of consensus and AV’s estimates. Sales came in at $1.1bn (-14% yoy) as the average realised (USD-denominated) PGM prices and sales volumes were down yoy 12% and 2%, respectively. However, platinum sales (736koz) were much ahead of earlier guidance (700koz) – thanks to certain smelting/processing efficiencies, which helped more than offset the impact of reorganisation-related disruptions. After two consecutive years (FY14-15) of hefty operating losses, Lonmin finally reported an adjusted operating profit (even though feeble) of $7m. This was facilitated by the record weakness in the South African rand (down from ZAR12/$ in FY15 to ZAR14.77/$ in FY16) and ZAR1.3bn of cost savings – 86% higher than the earlier target. Disappointingly, Lonmin recognised $335m of asset impairments (vs. $1.8bn in FY2015), which resulted in a full-year net loss of $400m. But the turnaround in reported OCFs – inflow of $58m vs. an outflow of $12m – was a much-needed improvement, which, along with conservative capex (-35% yoy) of $87m, resulted in a net cash position of $173m (with no short-term repayments) vs. a net debt position of $185m (at end-FY15). But the guidance spells caution For FY17, management targets conservative platinum sales of 650-680koz, while unit costs are expected to remain under pressure – ZAR10,800-11,300/oz vs. ZAR10,748/oz achieved in FY16. On the other hand, capex plans would be aggressive – ZAR1.8bn (which includes ZAR400m for the tailings project – already delayed by almost two years) vs. ZAR1.3bn spent in FY16.
Raising Target Price to 2,500p per share
01 Nov 16
Royal Dutch reported clean EPS of US$0.35, nearly 50% ahead of consensus. More importantly, cash flow jumped QoQ to US$8.5bn which should go a long way to confirming Shell’s capacity to maintain the current dividend, despite the increase in gearing to 29.2%. Upstream returned to profitability on an underlying basis for the first time since 1Q15. We believe these results confirm our view that Shell’s dividend can and will be maintained at US$0.47 per quarter and we increase our Target Price to 2,500p per share, given further sterling weakness.