Research, Charts & Company Announcements
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20 Apr 17
Although the last two months have seen a broadly neutral performance from the UK healthcare sector compared to a significantly more volatile 6 months prior, we continue to expect macro-events and increased geo-political risk to result in an overall neutral performance from the sector over the next period. However, company specific news is likely to drive a strong outperformance from selected mid-market companies. We retain our neutral sector stance whilst highlighting those we expect to outperform.
Companies: ABC AMS AGY ANCR BTG BTG C4XD CTH DPH DNL EKF HCM HZD IMM MXCT MTPH PLI SCLP SPHR VLG VER
27 Apr 17
N+1 Singer - Morning Song 27-04-2017
Howden Joinery Group (HWDN LN) Solid start to FY17 means on track to meet forecasts | N Brown Group (BWNG LN) Newsflow starting to turn the corner lends to re-rating | NCC Group (NCC LN) No further deterioration in trading | PROACTIS Holdings (PHD LN) Redde (REDD LN) Volume growth in H2 underpins FY17e outlookExtended supplier opportunity supports TP increase | ReNeuron Group (RENE LN) Increased focus on retinal pipeline | Synairgen (SNG LN) AstraZeneca returns rights to AZN9412 | Verona Pharma (VRP LN) Significantly enhanced cash position to progress RPL554
Companies: BWNG HWDN VRP REDD SNG RENE NCC PHD
06 Apr 17
N+1 Singer - Small-cap quantitative research - Growth style screen revamp and 10 focus stocks
We have reviewed the performance of our consistent growth screen since the previous refresh on 27 September 2016 and revamped the selection parameters to focus more on forecast sales and EPS growth going forward. In the period under review the consistent growth style screen outperformed the small-cap benchmark by c. 6% and underperformed the microcap index by a similar amount. Interestingly, although growth doesn’t always seem to be defensive as might be expected, however it appears right to buy growth on dips caused by or coincident with wider market volatility. In the new forecast growth screen we take a close look at 10 focus stocks. We will monitor performance and refresh it in three to four months time.
Companies: ECK SDM DOTD ERGO HW/ EAH PHD FEN LOOP
24 Apr 17
N+1 Singer - Morning Song 24-04-2017
First Derivatives (FDP LN) FY slightly ahead as strong trading momentum continues | Goals Soccer Centres (GOAL LN) A potentially exciting corporate development | mporium Group (MPM LN) 2016 results: course set for exciting 2017 | Vectura Group (VEC LN) VR315 risk outweighs longer-term potential
Companies: VEC GOAL MPM FDP
07 Apr 17
Conviction List Q2 2017
Since its inception in 2010, the Panmure Gordon Conviction List has outperformed the market, returning 275% against a Small Companies index that would have returned 212%.
Companies: ALD AVON CTH EPWN INF MCB MRO NOG POLY SNR SMS STJ STJ WIZZ
24 Apr 17
Lok’nStore* (LOK): Growth supported by a strong balance sheet (CORP) | Mortice* (MORT): UK acquisition (CORP) | Avacta* (AVCT): Another milestone – 1st non-therapeutics licence (CORP) | Petra Diamonds (PDF): Trading update and Q3 results (BUY) | Nasstar* (NASA): Growth and margin focus (CORP)
Companies: LOK MORT AVCT PDL NASA
24 Apr 17
N+1 Singer - Vectura Group - VR315 risk outweighs longer-term potential
Following a review of product-level forecasts, we have reduced FY2017-18e revenue forecasts by 6.6% & 10.9% respectively. Following Mylan’s generic Advair® setback, we have also downgraded the likelihood of success for VR315 in the US. Although we remain impressed by the depth of Vectura’s pipeline, the potential valuation upside does not currently outweigh the risk of VR315 non-approval or delayed approval. We downgrade to Sell ahead of the 10th May GDUFA date with a TP of 131p (from 202p).
26 Apr 17
N+1 Singer - Abzena - Set for transformational growth
The successful £25m (gross) capital raise will fund a number of growth initiatives, including a significant expansion of the company’s manufacturing presence in the US. Supported by a strong services offering in the US and UK, we believe the investment will allow the company to capture a significantly larger share of the biologics development value chain. We reiterate our highly positive stance.
Companies: ABZENA LTD
26 Apr 17
N+1 Singer - Morning Song 26-04-2017
Abzena (ABZA LN) Set for transformational growth | Boohoo.com (BOO LN) Strong continuing momentum in BOO and PLT, cautious start for NG | Brooks Macdonald Group (BRK LN) Positive net inflows and performance combine to drive FuM growth | Devro (DVO LN) Reassuring AGM update | Nichols (NICL LN) Positive AGM tenor supportive of premium rating | Oxford Instruments (OXIG LN) Sale of Industrial Analysis business | PCI-PAL (PCIP LN) Contract win | PROACTIS Holdings (PHD LN) H1 results as expected, no change to forecasts | Stadium Group (SDM LN) Trading in line; Technology Day for investors | Walker Greenbank (WGB LN) Momentum visibly rebuilding post floods and after investment in growth
Companies: OXIG DVO NICL SDM WGB BOO ABZA PCIP BRK PHD
25 Apr 17
In-line trading update and FY 2018 estimates
The company provided a trading update for the year ending 31 March 2017, indicating that results will be in line with market expectations, with revenues of £14.25m and adjusted pre-tax profits of £1.1m. We introduce forecasts for FY 2018, which includes first commercial sales of Malaria tests but, pending the outcome and clarification of ongoing discussions with Immunodiagnostic Systems (IDS), we have assumed no revenues for Allersys. We maintain a 28p price target, which implies a FY 2018 EV/sales, EV/EBITDA and P/E multiples of 1.9x, 13.7x and 22.0x, respectively, but with the prospect of an agreement with IDH, we envisage upgrades during 2017.
Companies: Omega Diagnostics
21 Apr 17
N+1 Singer - Ergomed - Forecasts upgraded; analysis of upside potential
Ergomed’s FY results highlighted continued robust growth with its services business (+30% YoY) and an impressive backlog of £70m contracted future work, providing a high level of revenue visibility. We upgrade our forecasts and Target Price (from 293p to 360p) to reflect the increasing momentum and visibility. We look forward to top line data from co-development partner Aeterna Zentaris’ Phase III trial of Zoptrex™ (endometrial cancer) in April. If positive, it will help validate Ergomed’s hybrid model and follows the recent positive top-line Phase II results of Lorediplon (insomnia) from Ferrer. We also provide an analysis of the upside potential from the development business in this note. We remain at Buy.
21 Apr 17
N+1 Singer - Morning Song 21-04-2017
Ergomed (ERGO LN) Forecasts upgraded; analysis of upside potential | N Brown Group (BWNG LN) Preview – FY17 results due on Thursday | ReNeuron Group (RENE LN) Update on clinical programmes | Vernalis (VER LN) Complete Response Letter for CCP-07
Companies: BWNG VER RENE ERGO
25 Apr 17
Fenner (FENR): Forecast upgrades follow strong interims (BUY) | Omega Diagnostics* (ODX): In-line trading update and FY18 estimates (CORP) | Minds + Machines* (MMX): Prelims pressing ahead (CORP) | Imaginatik* (IMTK): Year-end trading update (CORP) | OptiBiotix* (OPTI): FY16 results in line with expectations (CORP) | Europa Oil & Gas*, (EOG): Irish seismic contractor (CORP) | Sound Energy (SOU): Schlumberger investment (HOLD) | CityFibre* (CITY): Strategy proof point (CORP) | Connect (CNCT): Investment being made to drive growth (BUY)
Companies: FENR ODX MMX IMTK OPTI EOG SOU CFHL CNCT
05 Apr 17
Progressive development across portfolio
AGY is a long-established specialist in the prevention, diagnosis and treatment of allergies. Pollinex Quattro continues to gain market share despite being available in EU only on a ‘Named Patient’ basis. Trials to obtain full approval as a biological have progressed well in EU with the first patient recruited in the pivotal birch pollen allergy vaccine Phase III trial. US trials are back on-track with a new safety trial underway. A Phase I study of Acarovac MPL, a ‘dust mite allergy’ vaccine, has been approved in Spain for 32 patients. Finally, Polyvac Peanut has completed preclinical testing and has potential to significantly disrupt the peanut allergy market.
Companies: Allergy Therapeutics
25 Apr 17
Small Cap Breakfast
ADES International— Provider of offshore and onshore oil and gas drilling and production services in the Middle East and Africa, seeking raise up to $170m plus vendor sale under a Standard Listing of the Main Market. Admission due May 2017. Global Ports Holding—Intention to float on Standard List of the Main Market. International cruise ports operator. Seeking $250m raise including $75m primary offer. Dorcaster—Schedule One Update. Admission now expected on AIM 3 May. RTO of Escape Hunt raising £14m at 135p. Verditek— Intention to float on AIM. On Admission, the Company's subsidiaries will be involved in advanced solar photovoltaic, filtration and absorption technologies specialising in providing environmental services. Raising £3.5m. Admission in May. ADES International Holding— Intends to join the Standard List of the Main Market in May raising up to $170m plus a vendor sale. Provider of offshore and onshore oil and gas drilling and production services in the Middle East and Africa. Admission expected in May. Tufton Oceanic Assets– Offer extended to 9 May on specialist funds segment of Main Market to enable investors to complete further due diligence.
Companies: MXCT CLIN COS ODX HZM OPTI COMS IMTK TRIN BLTG