Event in Progress:
Discover the latest content that has just been published on Research Tree
ERM Power has announced a takeover offer by Shell Energy Australia for 100% of its share capital at a cash price of A$2.465 per share, broadly in line with our DCF-based base case valuation of A$2.4/share. ERM’s directors and the largest shareholder, Trevor St Baker, support the proposal, which will be subject to shareholder approval – likely in or around early November 2019.
Companies: ERM Power
Edison
The recent investor day confirmed the opportunities we see for ERM Power from an evolving energy market, which we expect will create medium-term growth potential especially for the Energy Solutions business. In the meantime, investors will benefit from strong forecasted cash flow generation, with total free cash flow over the period FY19–21 equivalent to c 40% of the current market cap. We expect this to be allocated in a balanced way between shareholders’ remuneration and growth capex.
At its H119 results, ERM Power sent a strong positive signal about the outlook for its Electricity Retail business, upgrading its medium-term gross margins per unit by c 10%. The c 30% dividend hike, the additional 3c/share special dividend and A$60m reserved for investments in growth also show the balance sheet and the cash flow are strong.
Premium
ERM Power is refocusing on its core business by selling the US business and investing in the highest growth part of its Australian activities. We have increased our forecasts to reflect the accretive effect of the recent transactions and see more upside potential to the share price following the recent recovery as valuation multiples appear undemanding and the dividend yield is attractive.
ERM Power has announced the acquisition for up to A$16m of Out Performers, a provider of energy services to large energy customers. This is consistent with a refocusing on core Australian activities, following the recent announcement of the upcoming US business disposal. We estimate the acquisition implies a P/E multiple at a large discount to ERM Power and <5% EPS accretion on a full-year basis.
In the context of the FY18 results (23 August), ERM Power announced its intention to sell US supply activities, which we view as very positive, as we expect this business to continue to generate significant negative profit and cash flow. On an underlying basis, FY18 EBITDA was 12% better than expected, while net income was in line with our forecast. On the negative side, the company moved from a net cash position to a net debt position as a result of cash outflows related to derivatives variatio
ERM Power’s strategy is focused on sustaining growth in its cash-generative core Australian activities while developing two new growth areas: energy solutions and US supply. While we have reduced our short-term forecasts for the US activities to reflect lower margins and volumes, as guided by the company, we have increased our forecasts for energy solutions on the back of our new assessment following a recent investor briefing. Our analysis suggests this business could drive up to 40% growth in
ERM Power has issued a trading update that confirms its outlook for the Australian activities (in line or above for 2018 and in line for 2019) but downgrades the outlook for its US activities (slightly lower volumes and significantly lower gross margins). Our initial calculations suggest this could have a potential A$4m and A$13m negative effect on our 2018-19e net income forecasts respectively; we place our forecasts under review. Although the trading update for the US activities is disappointi
ERM Power is a leading electricity supplier and trader operating in Australia and the US. In addition to supply and gas-fired power generation in Australia, the company is focusing on two new sources of growth: US supply and energy solutions. These new areas of focus are the key drivers of our forecast 12% EBITDA CAGR in FY17-23. Energy solutions aims to reduce customers’ costs and carbon footprint and improve their energy efficiency. We believe ERM Power’s current share price implies not only z
Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on ERM Power. We currently have 9 research reports from 1 professional analysts.
Companies: FOG PHC FEN BBSN ELIX
Cavendish
Companies: CLA STM GLN FXPO KAV GWMO CEY BHP THX EEE
SP Angel
Companies: Gattaca plc
Liberum
AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Tethys Oil (TETY SS)C; target price of SEK100 per share: Increasing further the size of the prize/Considering Algeria – The South Lahan area on Block 58 is estimated to hold 55-523 mmbl prospective resources (P90-P10 case) with a mean case of 251.8 mmbbl prospective resources across six prospects in the Ara Carbonate. Combined with the previously disclosed prospective resources of the Fahd area in the north-eastern part of Block 58, Te
Companies: OKEA WDS GALP RHC RHC ENW EOG UJO TRIN I3E SCIR ZPHR SDX CRCL UOG TETY CEG IOX 0EVE CNE VAR TETY VLE GALP OKEA
Auctus Advisors
The focus of Hardman & Co Research is on the nine quoted Infrastructure Investment Companies (IICs) and on the 22 Renewable Energy Infrastructure Funds (REIFs): the stocks analysed are all members of the Association of Investment Companies (AIC). We are updating our publication of January 2023, assessing both the lacklustre share price performances during 2023 and the key issues, including interest rates, inflation and power prices. As a 31-strong group, its combined market capitalisation is no
Companies: AEIT ROOF DGI9 INPP GSF SEIT USFP HICL ORIT BSIF TRIG NESF SEQI HEIT GRP GCP FSFL 3IN AERI PINT RNEW BBGI GSEO DORE TENT GRID CORD HGEN AEET
Hardman & Co
22nd April 2024 * A corporate client of Hybridan LLP ** Arranged by type of listing and date of announcement *** Alphabetically arranged **** Potential means Intention to Float (ITF) has been announced Dish of the day Admissions: Delistings: What’s baking in the oven? ** Potential**** Initial Public Offerings: Reverse Takeovers: 16 April 2024: Electric Guitar (ELEG.L) Concurrent with its Admission to trading on AIM, Electric Guitar is proposing to acquire the entire issued share capital of 3radi
Companies: ARV CTL AFRN FEN HUW TENG BBSN EAAS VAL
Hybridan
Quadrise (QED LN) has provided an update on its Utah project with Valkor. Valkor’s partner (Heavy Sweet Oil LLC) has received funding and approval to commence drilling enabling production of 20-40bopd of heavy sweet oil providing QED with samples for production of test scale quantities of MSAR and bioMSAR; the company’s key fuel decarbonising emulsion fuel products. This should derisk the commercial scale ramp up. QED management has highlighted that Valkor has not yet raised the minimum of US$
Companies: Quadrise PLC
VSA Capital
Another Good Year of Diversified Growth with More to Come in 2024 CCapital have released their Q1 operating results. Overall, revenue has come in slightly lower than expected at $80.2m vs TamE of $85.9m but is largely tracking in line with our FY24 annual estimate and we note the company has maintained guidance. Drilling revenue for this quarter was impacted by a fall in utilisaztion rates as well as general remobilisation geographically but we expect a strong recovery throughout the year as k
Companies: Capital Limited
Tamesis Partners
Epwin’s FY23 results show a strong performance in both absolute and relative terms with operating profit increasing 19% yoy to £25.5m (FY22: £21.5m) as the margin expanded 140bps yoy to 7.4%.
Companies: Epwin Group PLC
Zeus Capital
Companies: FOG PEB KBT EMR TIME GETB JNEO
Jersey Electricity (JEL) is intensifying its focus on energy security and electrification across Jersey by creating opportunities to accelerate growth. It successfully navigated the volatile wholesale power price environment in 2020–23, shielding its customer base from the worst inflationary pressures. However, from 2025, as older, more favourable hedges expire, this protection will diminish. Therefore, we have marginally reduced our earnings forecasts to account for the increased exposure to wh
Companies: Jersey Electricity plc Class A
Companies: PLL TLG HZM SAV KAV KP2 SVML
Banquet Buffet*** Abingdon Health 9.25p £11.3m (ABDX.L) The lateral flow contract development and manufacturing organisation announces its unaudited interim results for the six months ended 31 December 2023. Revenue increased 117% to £2.4m (H1 2023: £1.1m). The Adjusted EBITDA loss decreased 47% to £1.2m (H1 2023: £2.2m). Furthermore, reduction in operating loss of 50% to £1.2m (H1 2023: £2.4m). The Board therefore expects that H2 2024 revenue will be significantly improved compared with H1 2024
Companies: CPX SLP FA/ FIPP ECR ETP ORCA
Shore Capital
The FY24 year-end update is very upbeat signalling trading being materially ahead of expectations, with a better-than-expected profit out turn and stronger cash generation. It continues to strengthen margins through efficiencies and investment in modern equipment. The order book remains close to record levels providing a robust view of future forecasts. In FY24E we upgrade EPS by 11% and in FY25E a significant upgrade of 27.6%. It looks capable of declaring a dividend in FY25 as well as manageme
Companies: Renold plc
Share: