Research, Charts & Company Announcements
Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on NOVOGEN LTD. We currently have 4 research reports from 1 professional analysts.
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Acquires mid-stage cancer drug from Genentech
31 Oct 16
Novogen has in-licensed global rights to the Phase II-ready drug GDC-0084 from Genentech. GDC-0084 is designed to treat brain cancers, including the rapidly fatal glioblastoma (GBM). Novogen plans to initiate a Phase II trial in GBM next year and positive trial results could allow filing for accelerated approval in 2020. The transaction will complement Novogen’s preclinical assets and Cantrixil, which will enter Phase I in ovarian cancer in Q416. Our valuation of Novogen’s existing programme is unchanged at A$112m (A$0.26/share). We value GDC-0084 under two different scenarios at A$11-54m, after accounting for A$35m of anticipated clinical trial costs.
Cantrixil to enter clinic in H216
11 May 16
Novogen has unwound its CanTx JV with Yale and resumed 100% ownership of its lead superbenzopyran Cantrixil, as it prepares to enter the clinic in ovarian cancer patients in Q416. Separately, its anti-tropomyosin (ATM) drug Anisina, which shows strong synergy with standard-of-care anti-mitotic drugs, is scheduled to enter the clinic in H216 or H117 (pending successful completion of toxicology studies). With $29m cash, we believe that Novogen is funded through FY18. Our valuation is virtually unchanged at $86m (vs $87m), with the benefit of resuming 100% ownership of Cantrixil offset by higher forecast G&A expenses.
Sharper focus on anti-cancer drugs
19 Oct 15
Novogen has prioritised development of its three lead anti-cancer drugs following a scientific review. Cantrixil is scheduled to enter the clinic in H116 and Anisina in H216 (both pending successful completion of toxicology studies). We have trimmed our valuation model, removing the prostate cancer indication for Trilexium, as it is not expected to enter the clinic until 2017, which reduces our valuation to $87m (vs $126m) or $5.13 per ADR (undiluted). With $32m cash, Novogen is funded beyond FY18.
Promising anti-cancer drugs head to the clinic
13 Jul 15
Novogen is developing two groups of anti-cancer compounds that have shown a great deal of promise in preclinical studies. Its super-benzopyran drugs are highly potent against cancer stem cells that are resistant to standard chemotherapy drugs, both in vitro and in animal models. Its lead anti-tropomyosin dug, Anisina, shows strong synergy with standard-ofcare anti-mitotic vinca alkaloid drugs. The company is well-funded, having raised ~$26m in the past two months, and is on track to have its three lead anti-cancer drugs in clinical trials by mid-2016. Its base case valuation is $126m, or $7.45 per ADR (undiluted).
20 Apr 17
Although the last two months have seen a broadly neutral performance from the UK healthcare sector compared to a significantly more volatile 6 months prior, we continue to expect macro-events and increased geo-political risk to result in an overall neutral performance from the sector over the next period. However, company specific news is likely to drive a strong outperformance from selected mid-market companies. We retain our neutral sector stance whilst highlighting those we expect to outperform.
N+1 Singer - Morning Song 24-04-2017
24 Apr 17
First Derivatives (FDP LN) FY slightly ahead as strong trading momentum continues | Goals Soccer Centres (GOAL LN) A potentially exciting corporate development | mporium Group (MPM LN) 2016 results: course set for exciting 2017 | Vectura Group (VEC LN) VR315 risk outweighs longer-term potential
Positive top-line results in first iclaprim phase III clinical trial (REVIVE-1)
18 Apr 17
Motif Bio (LSE: MTFB, NASDAQ: MTFB), a late clinical stage antibiotic development company, announced positive results this morning in the first of its two iclaprim phase III clinical trials, REVIVE-1, comparing iclaprim to vancomycin in the treatment of acute bacterial skin and skin structure infections (ABSSSI). Iclaprim, a next-generation antibiotic targeting an underutilised mechanism of action which causes rapid killing of bacteria, is being developed for the treatment of serious and life threatening bacterial infections. On the key primary endpoint in the study, early clinical response at 48-72 hours after drug treatment began, 80.9% of patients on iclaprim achieved a positive response compared to 81.0% of patients on vancomycin, well within the 10% non-inferiority margin required by the FDA. Iclaprim was also shown to be safe and well-tolerated compared to vancomycin. With these positive results from REVIVE-1 we have increased the probability of success for the iclaprim development program from 65% to 75% raising our risk-adjusted NPV for Motif Bio to almost £240m or 122p per share (previously £210m and 107p per share).
N+1 Singer - Sinclair Pharma - EBITDA upgrade for 2017, but lower TP due to warranty claim and costs
19 Apr 17
We have updated product-level forecasts and included the £10m SVB debt facility and £5m warranty claim settlement with Alliance Pharma in our forecasts. The 6.3% upgrade to our FY2017 sales estimate (from £46.0m to £48.9m) brings expected EBITDA profitability forward by one year (to FY2017 from FY2018). We remain positive on the ongoing rollout of Silhouette Instalift® in particular and retain our Buy recommendation. However, higher expected sales & marketing costs and the warranty claim weigh on our valuation: we downgrade our target price from 42p to 37p.
24 Apr 17
Lok’nStore* (LOK): Growth supported by a strong balance sheet (CORP) | Mortice* (MORT): UK acquisition (CORP) | Avacta* (AVCT): Another milestone – 1st non-therapeutics licence (CORP) | Petra Diamonds (PDF): Trading update and Q3 results (BUY) | Nasstar* (NASA): Growth and margin focus (CORP)