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20 Oct 16
We adjust our forecasts following Lookers impending disposal of its parts division and subsequent re-investment in two premium dealer groups. The company has acquired Drayton for £55m which was conditional on the sale of the parts division and separately completed a further £27m acquisition of Knights. Management have deleveraged following the transaction with our 2017 net debt/EBITDA forecast now 0.3x and we estimate the company has over £100m of firepower available. We would back this management team to deploy this effectively, building long term value for investors.
N+1 Singer - Morning Song 18-10-2016
18 Oct 16
1Spatial delivered a soft first half performance showing slower revenue development in its higher-margin Geospatial business, thereby impacting overall adjusted EBITDA. The group has a strong order book (of which the Geospatial component is up 30% y-o-y) and has built up a solid pipeline of opportunities which it expects to convert in the next six months. As such, the group is maintaining guidance for the year, albeit performance will be heavily H2-weighted. We believe the 1.1x EV/Sales and 6.2x EV/EBITDA Jan’17 rating does not reflect the potential of an IP-rich, productised business that is leveraging partnerships to scale growth – but recognise that stronger revenue traction is required to buoy confidence and drive the re-rating of the shares.
Rating fails to recognise potential
17 Oct 16
Vertu’s interim results demonstrate ongoing momentum despite a more challenging trading climate. Investment has continued, building the medium-term potential. Recent share price weakness is understandable, in the light of weak sterling, but the rating does not recognise the medium- to longer-term growth potential.
14 Oct 16
Elegant has released a trading update confirming that it is trading in line with 2016 expectations. The dividend has been maintained, which is currently yielding 11% (trough cover of 1.2x 2017). The NAV is 184p, which also provides significant freehold asset support. However, we are reducing our 2017 and 2018 forecasts, which drives an 6% reduction in REVPAR in 2017 vs. our previous assumptions and is largely occupancy driven. We also factor in additional corporate costs to support the growth with the room count +35% since IPO factoring in Waves and its latest management contract.
Consensus eps falling…falling…falling…rising 2.0
29 Apr 16
In January we screened for companies with estimates that had been declining consistently since a year previously, but which had risen in the immediately preceding three months (see our note dated 22 January 2016). We have reviewed the performance of those companies and, given the overall strength of this selection, we have re-run the screen. In the c.3 months since selection, the unweighted average rise was c.34% against a c.11% rise in the main All-Share index. From the same universe as before (some 900 companies) we find 38 companies selected by the screen. We note a number of stocks in the list where we have a supportive stance including: Devro (DVO LN, Buy), James Fisher (FSJ LN, Corporate), Mattioli Woods (MTW LN, Buy) and Spirent Communications (SPT LN, Buy).
N+1 Singer - Marshall Motor Holdings - Unscheduled RNS confirms share price detached from performance
18 Oct 16
In an unscheduled trading update, Marshall Motors indicates that trading performance has been positive so far in H2, including the key plate change month of Sept. This reflects a healthy combination of LFL growth and the acquisitions of SG Smith and Ridgeway. Management therefore remains confident in delivering FY expectations. Structural changes within the motor retail industry are resulting in wide divergence in performance between weaker smaller operators and stronger larger players. Our research has consistently highlighted this and we believe read across for the latter (including Marshall Motors) should not automatically be drawn from headline data on the market e.g. from the SMMT or BCA. With the valuation down to a P/E of 4x (11% FCF yield) the shares have scope for a rebound today.