Research, Charts & Company Announcements
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KIDMAN RESOURCES LTD
KIDMAN RESOURCES LTD
11 Aug 16
"House prices, one of the UK's principal consumer confidence supports, have come under Brexit pressure. The Royal Institute of Surveyors confirmed yesterday that its members were reporting falling activity levels in all regions, with July prices growing at their slowest pace in three years, a sharp drop in sales and a record low number of properties being advertised. A survey of over 300 agents also suggests they expect key London prices to fall over the next year. This news, along with the sharp reversal in oil prices spurred by a reported spike in US crude inventories on the back of expanded production from Saudi Arabia, means equities in London will have a soft opening this morning, with the FTSE-100 seen down around 25 points in early trading. The US markets, not surprising, saw energy stocks lead the falls overnight; while continuing to trade in a narrow range, all principal indices closed modestly negative in the absence of other significant corporate or macroeconomic news. In Asia, the Nikkei was closed for Mountain Day public holiday, leaving the Chinese markets in Hong Kong and Shanghai to put in fractional gains, while the commodity-exposed ASX fell back quite sharply. UK investors will be keen to see this morning's Council of Mortgage Lenders arrears and repossessions report, while corporates expected to report half-yearly figures include Caledonia Mining Corp. (CMCL.L), Glencore (GLEN.L), Hastings Group (HSTG.L), Old Mutual (OML.L) and TUI (TUI.L)." - Barry Gibb, Research Analyst
Strong trading leads to upgrades
22 Mar 17
On the back of today’s positive trading update and slightly upgraded profit forecasts for FY2017, FY2018 and FY2019 we have reviewed our DCF analysis. This has led to an increased DCF valuation per share of 1500p (from 1200p) which we have made our new target price (from 1200p). Both TFP and JC Paper have contributed to the upgrades shown in the table below as have favourable currency movements. With the potential for further upgrades due to capitalising 3DP costs to come we maintain our Add recommendation.
GMP FirstEnergy ― UK Energy morning research package
17 Mar 17
Pacific Exploration & Production1,6 (PEN CN); BUY, C$72.00: 4Q16 results and improving outlook | Serinus Energy (SEN CN)1, 3; Speculative Buy, C$0.65: FY16 results | IGas Energy (IGAS LN) (not covered): Final terms of a previously announced proposed capital restructuring | Tullow Oil (TLW LN): HOLD, £3.10: Right Issue at a discount & CNOOC exercises pre-emption rights in Uganda
Bang to rights
21 Mar 17
Tullow unexpectedly announced a US$750m rights issue on Friday at a 45.2% discount to the previous close. While this step confirms our investment thesis, the scale of the discount and the timing look like a slap in the face for investors and/or indicative of a weaker financial position than we are modelling. We publish revised estimates to reflect the impact of the issue and cut our Target Price to 215p per share (from 245p). We maintain our Hold recommendation.
Panmure Morning Note 22-03-2017
22 Mar 17
Acacia Mining and Endeavour Mining confirmed merger talks have now ended with Endeavour claiming an inability to “create adequate value for Endeavour shareholders”, most likely, we believe, given the disappointing ruling from the Tanzanian government on copper-gold concentrate sales. We were positive on the merger and believed a credible London listed Pan-African producer capable of challenging Randgold, would have been established. We make no change to our Hold recommendation today, and expect the shares to be marked lower in early trade.
South Disouq spuds
20 Mar 17
SDX Energy announced this morning that it has spudded the South Disouq (SD-1X) well in Egypt, targeting gas and oil across a number of intervals. This is a high impact event for SDX Energy, as current company 2P reserves of 4.7mmboe (post acquisition) would be dwarfed by success at South Disouq (we model a 65mmboe field of which SDX holds 55% WI), which could be developed quickly due to existing pipeline infrastructure passing through the block. Our valuation for South Disouq is 6.8p/share, although on success we would expect notable de-risking. Our core NAV is 42p with a full NAV (including South Disouq) of 57p/share. The well is due to take 30-45 days, so we would expect a result in mid late April.