Research, Charts & Company Announcements
Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on VOESTALPINE AG. We currently have 8 research reports from 1 professional analysts.
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Prices have not really stabilised in Q2 16/17
09 Nov 16
The price fall has moderated somewhat, but has continued to be negative. As a result, the group’s revenue was down by 5.4% to €2.64bn which brought the H1 number to €5.41bn, a fall of 6.5%. However, Voestalpine’s operating earnings stabilised somewhat in Q2 (EBITDA: +1.6% to €371m) whereas it was still down by 21% to €705m in H1. We had expected H1 numbers of €5.49bn and €690m, respectively. For the full-year, management now expects EBITDA to come in at last year’s level (statement before: ‘almost’ on last year’s level) whereas the outlook for an unchanged EBIT number has been maintained.
Life has got tougher
09 Aug 16
Voestalpine suffered a 7.7% revenue setback to €2.77bn in Q1 16/17 (FYE 31 March) and a 37% EBITDA decrease to €527m. All of the group’s other profit numbers are also sharply down. However, some of this is the result of one-off consolidation effects of €137m realised in Q1 last year. Excluding this gain from last year’s EBITDA number still leaves a profit setback of 14% for the current year, while we had expected a decrease of 5% and a revenue number of a good €2.9bn.
All steel prices down, but reasonable profits
02 Jun 16
Voestalpine’s sales and profit decline has accelerated in Q4 15/16 (through to March) as steel prices fell sharply. However, the numbers are very much in line with our projections. Full-year revenue was down by 1.1% to just below €11.1bn (-8.4% in Q4) and EBITDA fell by 5.5% to €1.45bn (-46%) in Q4). Net profit after minorities was up by 9% to €585m in the full year. These profit number changes are based on what Voestalpine released a year ago and not on the adjusted 2014/15 numbers management released today. We had expected revenue of €11.16bn, EBITDA of €1.50bn and net earnings of €615m.
Largest ever heavy plate order received for Nord Stream 2
19 Apr 16
Voestalpine was the supplier of heavy plates to Russian tube producer OMK, which delivered a total of 170,000 tons of tubes for Nord Stream 1 and was completed in 2012. Although final political decisions are still pending, OMK has received a 33% stake in the new order for Nord Stream 2. Deliveries are expected to start in August 2016 and will last through to February 2018. According to Voestalpine, this order is for several hundred thousand tons of heavy plates, i.e. clearly more than for the first project. The pipeline will be built next to the first one, thus connecting Russia and Western Europe via the Baltic Sea. It is not only objected by several countries in Midwest Europe (like Poland and the Baltic States) but also by others as it increases Europe’s dependence on Russian energy supply. This order will clearly help fill the capacities of Voestalpine’s Grobblech GmbH, which is part of the group’s Carbon Steel division. Whether it will also allow to generate a decent margin remains to be seen as the competition for these kinds of large-scale orders is, because of the investment slump in the energy industry, fierce to say the least.
9M 2015/16 numbers almost matched our projections
10 Feb 16
The group continued generating rising carbon steel and special steel prices in the last quarter. However, as shipments were down, consolidated revenue fell by 4% to slightly less than €2.6bn and the 9M revenue is up by only 1.5% to €8.38bn. This has also taken its toll on quarterly EBITDA which fell by 5% to €315m but is up by 11% to just above €1.2bn through to December. Both revenue and EBITDA numbers are below our projected €8.56bn and €1.23bn, respectively.
Voestalpine intensifies cost reduction efforts
17 Dec 15
Management admits that its medium-term revenue goal of €20bn revenue in 2020 will not be reached. The new guidance is for around €15bn which we find much more realistic and is possible as it suggests an annual sales growth rate of 6% from the end of the last fiscal year through to 2019/20. ‘We have been too optimistic’, the CEO has admitted. As falling raw material prices have to be passed on to clients, the group needs another cost reduction programme (on top of the €900m initiated in 2014) that will involve all divisions. Details will be released in January, but the amount will be considerably smaller. The CEO left the question unanswered as to whether these efforts will translate into lay-offs.
The Slide Rule
12 Jan 17
What is The Slide Rule? The Slide Rule has been designed to dramatically simplify the identification of the best companies in the UK small/mid-cap sector by making a quantitative assessment of the relative potential of each company. At its core, The Slide Rule aims to identify those companies that create genuine shareholder value through strong returns on capital and solid growth, but also present a value opportunity with the potential tailwind of earnings momentum. Companies are assessed within a Quality, Value, Growth and Momentum (QVGM) framework.
The Monthly January 2017
09 Jan 17
Despite all the hullaballoo of the Brexit vote and the subsequent election of Donald Trump as the next US President, the UK stock market prospered last year, especially in the latter few months of 2016. The combination of a depreciating currency – making $ earnings more valuable in relative terms - and the Trump emphasis on infrastructure expenditure drove the stock market higher
Small Cap Breakfast
17 Jan 17
Global Energy Development (GED.L) — To be renamed Nautilus Marine Services. Schedule 1 from developer and seller of hydrocarbons and related products. Reverse takeover. Raising $10.5m via a convertible. Expected 9 Feb. Eco (Atlantic) Oil & Gas—TSX-V listed oil and gas exploration has announced its intention to float on AIM. Assets in Guyana and Namibia. Proposed £2m-£3m fundraise. Diversified Gas & Oil—According to LSE website first day of trading on AIM now expected for 30 January.
Minor delay but lower cost and better visibility enhance the investment profile
13 Jan 17
First oil at Stella is delayed by about a month, reducing the contribution of Stella to FY17 production by the same period. While this has an impact on FY17e free cash flow, this is negligible to our valuation. More importantly, FY17 opex are estimated at only US$18/boe, below our estimates of US$20/boe. There are opportunities to reduce opex further. Harrier is expected to reach first oil in 2018, one year earlier than we expected and at a cost of US$40 mm lower than we anticipated. The overall development cost is less than US$6.0/boe. Ithaca holds numerous discoveries around Stella that would be developed with a similar cost structure to Harrier.
16 Jan 17
We take a look at the rankings of the various countries in Africa that have a significant exposure to mining. We take the Transparency International corruption rankings as our starting point and modify these for exceptional geology and for current UK government travel warnings. Ghana, Botswana and Namibia come out as our top three, with Eritrea, Kenya and Zimbabwe at the bottom of our rankings.