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Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on VOESTALPINE AG. We currently have 9 research reports from 1 professional analysts.
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Prices and profits have started to more than stabilise
09 Feb 17
The group’s revenue increased by 3.9% to €2.69bn in Q3 16/17 which brought the ytd number to €8.1bn (-3.3%). EBITDA was up by 13% to €356m and down by 12% to €1.06bn, respectively. This trend was similar for net earnings after minorities (+28% to €101m and -32% to €326m). Revenue was slightly below but EBITDA and net earnings were slightly ahead of our forecast.
Prices have not really stabilised in Q2 16/17
09 Nov 16
The price fall has moderated somewhat, but has continued to be negative. As a result, the group’s revenue was down by 5.4% to €2.64bn which brought the H1 number to €5.41bn, a fall of 6.5%. However, Voestalpine’s operating earnings stabilised somewhat in Q2 (EBITDA: +1.6% to €371m) whereas it was still down by 21% to €705m in H1. We had expected H1 numbers of €5.49bn and €690m, respectively. For the full-year, management now expects EBITDA to come in at last year’s level (statement before: ‘almost’ on last year’s level) whereas the outlook for an unchanged EBIT number has been maintained.
Life has got tougher
09 Aug 16
Voestalpine suffered a 7.7% revenue setback to €2.77bn in Q1 16/17 (FYE 31 March) and a 37% EBITDA decrease to €527m. All of the group’s other profit numbers are also sharply down. However, some of this is the result of one-off consolidation effects of €137m realised in Q1 last year. Excluding this gain from last year’s EBITDA number still leaves a profit setback of 14% for the current year, while we had expected a decrease of 5% and a revenue number of a good €2.9bn.
All steel prices down, but reasonable profits
02 Jun 16
Voestalpine’s sales and profit decline has accelerated in Q4 15/16 (through to March) as steel prices fell sharply. However, the numbers are very much in line with our projections. Full-year revenue was down by 1.1% to just below €11.1bn (-8.4% in Q4) and EBITDA fell by 5.5% to €1.45bn (-46%) in Q4). Net profit after minorities was up by 9% to €585m in the full year. These profit number changes are based on what Voestalpine released a year ago and not on the adjusted 2014/15 numbers management released today. We had expected revenue of €11.16bn, EBITDA of €1.50bn and net earnings of €615m.
Largest ever heavy plate order received for Nord Stream 2
19 Apr 16
Voestalpine was the supplier of heavy plates to Russian tube producer OMK, which delivered a total of 170,000 tons of tubes for Nord Stream 1 and was completed in 2012. Although final political decisions are still pending, OMK has received a 33% stake in the new order for Nord Stream 2. Deliveries are expected to start in August 2016 and will last through to February 2018. According to Voestalpine, this order is for several hundred thousand tons of heavy plates, i.e. clearly more than for the first project. The pipeline will be built next to the first one, thus connecting Russia and Western Europe via the Baltic Sea. It is not only objected by several countries in Midwest Europe (like Poland and the Baltic States) but also by others as it increases Europe’s dependence on Russian energy supply. This order will clearly help fill the capacities of Voestalpine’s Grobblech GmbH, which is part of the group’s Carbon Steel division. Whether it will also allow to generate a decent margin remains to be seen as the competition for these kinds of large-scale orders is, because of the investment slump in the energy industry, fierce to say the least.
9M 2015/16 numbers almost matched our projections
10 Feb 16
The group continued generating rising carbon steel and special steel prices in the last quarter. However, as shipments were down, consolidated revenue fell by 4% to slightly less than €2.6bn and the 9M revenue is up by only 1.5% to €8.38bn. This has also taken its toll on quarterly EBITDA which fell by 5% to €315m but is up by 11% to just above €1.2bn through to December. Both revenue and EBITDA numbers are below our projected €8.56bn and €1.23bn, respectively.
20 Feb 17
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The Slide Rule
12 Jan 17
What is The Slide Rule? The Slide Rule has been designed to dramatically simplify the identification of the best companies in the UK small/mid-cap sector by making a quantitative assessment of the relative potential of each company. At its core, The Slide Rule aims to identify those companies that create genuine shareholder value through strong returns on capital and solid growth, but also present a value opportunity with the potential tailwind of earnings momentum. Companies are assessed within a Quality, Value, Growth and Momentum (QVGM) framework.
Playing the long term, with short-term risks
16 Feb 17
After the publication of the annual results, we update our view and highlight the key points. Q4 16 key highlights As a reminder, the company reported results 30% below expectations at $400m for Q4 16. By division: 1) In upstream, underlying replacement costs profit came to $400m, vs. a loss a year earlier of $728m and a loss of $224m in Q3 16, reflecting the ongoing lower costs which have benefited from simplifications, efficiencies and lower exploration write-offs. In the US, the loss is still $147m. Production came in at 2.19mbpd, down 5.5% yoy due to disposals and up 1.8% on an underlying basis thanks to ramp-ups. One of the key events during the quarter was the renewal of BP’s onshore concession in the UAE with a 10% interest in the ADCO onshore oil concession. In terms of outlook, production should be higher in 2017 and will depend on the timing of project start-ups, acquisitions, divestments, and OPEC quota. Also the Abu Dhabi concession will be visible as from Q1 17. 2) In downstream, replacement costs profit came to $877m, down from $1.2bn a year ago and $1.4bn in Q3 16. The US division showed a loss of $371m vs a gain of $1.25bn. Non-US Fuel business earnings halved to $417m due to the weaker refining environment as well as the impact from the particularly large turnaround at the Whiting refinery. In lubricants, profit rose to $357m, reflecting the continued strong performance in its growth markets and premium brands as well as simplifications and greater efficiencies. The margin should remain unchanged for Q1 17. 3) Rosneft. Underlying replacement costs profit came to $135m, down from $235m a year ago, affected by the increased government take. Production was at 1.15mbpd, up from 1.03mbpd a year ago. This reflects the completion of the acquisition of Bashneft and Rosneft’s increased stake in the PetroMonagas venture. BP received a dividend of $322m after deduction of the withholding tax, in July 2016. On the Macondo oil spill, the charge taken for the Q4 16 pre-tax was $530m. This reflects BP’s latest estimates for claims including business economic loss. The pre-tax cash outflow on costs related to the oil spill for the full year 2016 was $7.1bn. Cash flow Excluding the Gulf of Mexico payment, the operating cash flow was $4.5bn. Underlying operating cash flow excluding the oil spill-related payment was $17.8bn for the full year. Proceeds during the year and the scrip dividend were not enough to cover capex and the cash dividend. Gearing at the end of the year increased to 27% ($35.5bn debt), in the high range of the group’s target of 20-30%. Organic capital was $16bn, below original guidance of $17bn to $19bn. Capex in 2017 should be close to $16-17bn. Divestment proceeds should be higher in 2017, close to $5bn and then reducing by $2-3bn per year after 2018. The total costs of the Deepwater payment should fall to $2bn in 2018 and then $1bn per year as from 2019. In 2017, this should be close to $5bn. All in all, including the latest acquisitions, cash flow break-even should be close to $60/bbl in 2017.
Small Cap Breakfast
16 Feb 17
Saffron Energy—Schedule One update. Raising £2.5m, expected Mkt Cap £7.7m. Admission due 24 Feb. Italian Oil & Gas Play Guinness Oil & Gas Exploration—Publication of prospectus. Seeking to raise £50m and invest in 15 exploration companies at launch, with plans to grow the portfolio to 30 positions during its lifetime. Issue closing 23 Feb. Arix Bioscience — Intention to float on the main market from the global healthcare and life science Company supporting medical innovation. Raised £52m in Feb 16 with investors including Woodford Investment Management
GMP FirstEnergy ― UK Energy morning research package
17 Feb 17
Enquest (ENQ LN): Speculative Buy, £0.65: Kraken FPSO in the field and hooked up in the North Sea | Ithaca Energy (IAE LN/CN)6: BUY, £1.40: Stella First Hydrocarbons in the North Sea | Bowleven (BLVN LN) (not covered): Denies claims made by Crown Ocean Capital