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Q4 23 key highlights: 1) Revenues up 10% y/y (+6% q/q); 2) EBITDA at EUR84m (+2% q/q), o/w EUR21m from the revaluation of biological assets and EUR12m from the sale of CO2 certificates; 3) FCF reached EUR22m, mainly due to a EUR66m decline in NWC q/q; 4) FY24 EBITDA should be higher than in FY23, but the extent was neither quantified nor qualified on the call. Given only moderate absolute changes to EAT/FCF 24/25e, we maintain our val. range of EUR18-EUR49. Challenging environment in the fiber
Companies: Lenzing (LNZ:VIE)Lenzing AG (LNZ:WBO)
BNP Paribas Exane - Sponsored Research
We have updated our numbers to reflect yesterday''s ad hoc release: 1) Mgmt. specified the FY23 EBITDA target to ''around EUR300m'' (previous range: EUR270-330m / VA consensus: EUR289m), suggesting a sequential decline in Q4; 2) non-cash impairment of EUR480m. We cut our adj. EBITA 24-26e by c.20%, now sitting 41%/28% below consensus 24/25e, to reflect a continued challenging market environment. Our new forecasts point to a new valuation range of EUR18-49 per share. Weak market conditions drov
Q3 23 key highlights: 1) Revenues down by 9% y/y (-2% q/q); 2) EBITDA down 23% q/q due to lower tailwinds from revaluation of biological assets; 3) Cost-saving measures should support a recovery from 2024 to the tune of EUR50m in 2024 and EUR100m p.a. as of 2025. We cut our EPS estimates for 2023/24 and update our valuation range to EUR28-EUR59 (from EUR31-EUR64). Fiber segment remains Lenzing''s problem child Lenzing''s Fiber division remains burdened by the current unfavorable market develop
Lenzing has gone through a ''perfect storm'' with major capex projects having come online just as end markets deteriorated. Yet payback on its EUR 2bn investment looks tangible via increased backward integration and a structurally better mix, complemented by cost cutting. With fiber markets bottoming out, EBITDA has scope to rise from EUR 330m in 23e (guidance: EUR 320-400m) to EUR 650m by 26e, supporting deleveraging to 2.5x and ROCE 10%. Our fair value range is EUR 31-64. Crystallization of p
Lenzing''s Q4 results do not prompt significant changes to our FY-23 group EBITDA estimates (Fiber higher / Pulp lower, on pulp price deflation). This can be regarded as a good start after substantial negative consensus revisions during FY-22 (amid a ''perfect storm'' of cost inflation and de-stocking of customer inventories) and the new company guidance for EUR320m-EUR420m EBITDA indicates that the company regards even higher EBITDA levels than our EUR336m as realistic, subject to market recove
Lenzing has issued a profit warning, providing an updated EBITDA 2022 guidance of EUR250m. With Q3 results on 3 November, Lenzing had called market expectations of around ~EUR300m EBITDA at that time ''realistic''. On the conference call, management stated that ~EUR15m of the profit-warning is due to one-off effects (restructuring) while FX and weaker markets had a negative profit impact of ~EUR20m each. We think the profit-warning comes as a negative surprise as the market environment has not d
Following Lenzing''s recent profit warning and negative newsflow from customers, we cut our forecasts and valuation range. Weak demand and weakening pricing Low consumer confidence has impacted demand for wood-based cellulosic fibers and commodity prices have developed unfavourably since summer. Viscose Staple Fiber (textile) prices declined by 13% since June, and Cotton (FE) prices are down 24%, both in USD-terms. At the same time, dissolving pulp prices have decreased only marginally and ener
Looking for double-digit organic growth? ESG qualities? Low P/E? Lenzing has it all. With key projects in Brazil and Thailand ramping in 2022, additional visibility on earnings and value could drive a re-rating. We analyse organic growth potential, plus the resulting cash flow and balance sheet risks, to reach a fair value range of EUR65 (assuming a $900/t mid-term pulp price) to EUR114 in a blue-sky scenario of a 18% ROIC for the Brazil project, which could be achievable at a $1,050/t DWP price
Companies: Lenzing AG (LNZ:WBO)Lenzing AG (0NCV:LON)
Q3 EBITDA came in 9% below consensus Lenzing reported implied Q3 EBITDA of EUR80m, 9% below consensus expectations mostly driven by lower margins (impacted by higher energy, dissolving wood pulp and logistics costs). Management reiterated guidance for the year (EBITDA of at least EUR360m) and 2024 targets (including the EUR800m EBITDA target). Inflation: how long will it last? Management reiterated its comments on inflation in energy, raw materials and logistics costs, adding that more press
Lenzing is a global leader in WBCF... Lenzing is an Austrian manufacturer of wood-based cellulosic fibres (WBCF). These are alternatives to cotton and synthetic fibres (mostly polyester) used in textiles (c.62% in 2020) and non-woven applications (c.38% in 2020). The company is a market leader in specialty fibres (specialty viscose, lyocell and modal), and one of the top 5 players in commodity viscose. ... and a beneficiary of an ESG shift With better CO2 profile of wood-based cellulosic fib
Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on Lenzing AG. We currently have 15 research reports from 2 professional analysts.
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Liberum
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Shore Capital
Domino’s Pizza Group’s (DOM’s) new CEO has set an ambitious long-term growth target, including an acceleration in its net store opening programme. With better alignment between the company and its franchisees, management believes DOM should be capable of generating improved profit growth, versus that achieved in recent years, and potential higher returns.
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Edison
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On 9 January last year, we set out our ten top stock picks for 2023, for what turned out to be another relatively poor twelve months for UK equities due to two wars, stubbornly high inflation and further tightening of monetary policy. This was even as other major markets, such as the US, largely recovered in the year. In the 2023 calendar year, the AIM All-Share index fell 8.2% and is still 42% off its 2021 high. From the release of our 2023 top picks note, the average total return (assuming div
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Zeus Capital
Pinewood’s transition to a pure-play automotive SaaS business is now largely complete. Today we introduce summary forecasts out to FY26 and reiterate the investment case. We see significant opportunity for Pinewood to grow its user base in the UK and internationally whilst generating high EBITDA margins and cash conversion. With a 24.5p special dividend embedded in the current price (payable Q1/Q2), the effective price today is 12.3p. Based on the Group’s FY27 target of £27m EBITDA, we estimate
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Vertu is the fourth largest automotive retailer in the UK, with 188 sales outlets and a track record of cross-cycle growth, principally through businesses it has acquired, funded by equity, debt and most importantly cash generation. Vertu operates across the entire vehicle lifecycle, including new and used vehicle sales, and vehicle servicing, repair and parts. Service and repair is a 40+% gross margin repeating business. With economic headwinds, the transition to electric vehicles, recent overs
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Progressive Equity Research
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17th April 2024 * A corporate client of Hybridan LLP ** Arranged by type of listing and date of announcement *** Alphabetically arranged **** Potential means Intention to Float (ITF) has been announced Dish of the day Admissions: Delistings: What’s baking in the oven? ** Potential**** Initial Public Offerings: Reverse Takeovers: 16 April 2024: Electric Guitar (ELEG.L) Concurrent with its Admission to trading on AIM, Electric Guitar is proposing to acquire the entire issued share capital of 3radi
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Hybridan
React Group is a well-managed, growing UK services business with a high degree of recurring revenues (c87%).
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Dowgate Capital
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Today’s trading statement from ZOO highlights a ramp-up in demand following the end to the industry-wide strikes of last year. ZOO struck a note of caution in its January update regarding the timing of orders. However new productions are starting to translate into a healthy order pipeline, with a good recovery in revenue anticipated in H1 FY25. The update guides to revenue of at least $40m for the year to March 2024, ahead of our estimate at $36.8m. We have improved our adjusted EBITDA loss marg
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During 2023, ME Group commenced the deployment of its next generation photobooths, which are integrated with the group’s newly developed proprietary software, gained market leadership in the Japanese photobooth market with an acquisition, continued to roll out laundry units with existing and new location partners, commenced a share buyback programme and gained entry into the FTSE 250. 2023 was a year of significant strategic and financial progress, with sales up 15%, EPS up 31% and net cash main
Companies: ME Group International plc
Cavendish
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