Event in Progress:
Discover the latest content that has just been published on Research Tree
The Q2 was slightly better than expected. We expect Proximus to see modest sales and Ebitda growth in the coming years.
However Proximus has been lagging behind its peers on fibre deployment and needs to invest. The group is not yet out of the woods in terms of its EBITDA less capex and is unlikely to increase its dividends any time soon.
The group is trading at a significant discount and we maintain our Buy opinion despite seeing no catalyst in the short term.
Companies: Proximus SA de droit public
Like in the previous quarter, the Q4 EBITDA was disappointing, down by 4.7% yoy and lfl. The good point is, however, that Proximus expects its Domestic revenue and EBITDA to grow up to 1% yoy in 2022.
In line with its accelerated fibre deployment, Proximus’ capex should grow by 8% in 2022 to exceed 20% of its sales. Well, the group has not yet left the inn and is unlikely to increase its dividends any time soon. We remain, however, at Buy.
Domestic revenue was slightly disappointing, down by 2.1% yoy and lfl. Consumer revenue was indeed down by 1.6% due to the ongoing trend of Consumers opting increasingly for a product combination excluding a Fixed Voice line.
We remain at Buy on the stock which remains heavily discounted vs its peers but Proximus is lagging behind in the deployment of fibre compared to its peers and has to invest. So no catalyst in the short term.
Proximus’ Q1 was globally in line with expectations.
The key point is that Proximus has been lagging behind in the deployment of fibre compared to its peers and has to invest. So the group has not yet left the inn and should not immediately increase its dividends.
In our view, even if there is quite a solid upside in the long term for the stock there are few catalysts in the short term for the price to take off.
The stock was down by 10% last Friday (26 February) after the release of a disappointing Q4 but, above all, a poor outlook for 2021. Management expects indeed only flat revenues and an EBITDA down by 3-4% yoy, while capex should up by 20%.
However, we still believe that, given the investments made, Proximus deserves a degree of reappraisal as its yield remains safe and the dividend may ultimately grow with the pay-back on its speedier and augmented capex.
A good Q3 with a resilient and better-than-expected EBITDA. As a result Proximus has revised its 2020 guidance upwards with EBITDA-CAPEX at €830m vs €780m-800m previously.
Over 2020-22 the group is supposed to return a dividend of €1.2 (-20% compared to 2019 to invest more than ever in fibre and 5G). This level should, however, be considered as a floor and we believe the dividend could be raised earlier than currently expected.
A correct Q2 with in particular a very good resilience in the EBITDA, which was down by only 1.5% yoy despite a logical 5.9% decline in revenues due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
Proximus reiterates once again its 2020 full-year guidance of EBITDA minus capex of €780-800m. Therefore the new dividend of €1.20 over 2020-22 proposed in early 2020 has to be considered as… a floor perfectly sustainable over the period.
We maintain our Buy opinion on the stock.
Proximus is a no-growth story for 2019… but is securing quarter after quarter its solid position on the Belgian TV side thanks to the deployment of its fibre network.
The stock has recovered 35% since July 2018. It is no longer very far off our target price which has not changed much in a year. We maintain our opinion at Add on the stock.
Proximus is a no-growth story for 2019.
The stock had recovered with a 20% increase during Q4. The stock is down by 6% this morning, investors preferring to move towards growth stocks while shedding no growth yield values.
We believe however this is still an opportunity to buy the stock given the secure yield and the fact that the group is currently winning, slowly but surely, market share on the TV side.
The key point to highlight is that Proximus is currently winning market share (likely 34.5% at end 2018 vs 32% at end 2016) on the TV side vs Telenet.
Even if Proximus does not offer genuine growth prospects and will have to face Telenet’s offensive in the quadruple play, its restructuring enables it to be more competitive and well positioned to maintain its leadership in 4G and to win market shares on TV… and also to offer a strong dividend.
Q1 revenues were flat yoy. And that is indeed slightly better than in the previous quarter (-0.9% in Q4). Domestic revenues were up by 0.9% yoy thanks to the Fixed data and TV services and despite the impact of the “Roam like at home” regulation, while revenue from BICS (the International Carrier division combined with that of the African telco MTN) were down by 3.9% yoy (it had decreased by 6.6% in Q4), but they included the consolidation of TeleSign for one month more.
As in previous quarter
The group released last Friday (2 March) its Q4 results.
Q4 revenues were down by 0.9% yoy, a slighter less decline compared to the -3.2% yoy recorded in both Q3 and Q2. Domestic revenues were indeed up by 0.9% despite the impact of the “Roam like at home” regulation, while revenue from BICS (the International Carrier division combined with that of the African telco MTN) were down by 6.6% (vs -12% in Q3 and Q2), but they included two months’ consolidation of TeleSign (the organic decline was in
The group released last week its Q3 results.
Q3 revenues were down by 3.2% yoy, like in Q2 (as a reminder, revenues were, however, up by 0.7% yoy in Q1). Domestic revenues were indeed only stable yoy (as expected given the impact of the “Roam like at home” regulation), while revenue from BICS (the International Carrier division combined with that of the African telco MTN) were down by 12.1%, like in Q2, driven by volatility in the voice business, combined with a less favourable destination mix
Q2 revenues were down by 2.9% yoy, a rather disappointing number given the 0.7% yoy growth recorded in Q1. Domestic revenues were indeed stable yoy as they were up by a solid 3.2% in Q1, while revenue from BICS (the International Carrier division combined with that of the African telco MTN) were down by 12.9%, a sharper decrease than in the two previous quarters, driven by volatility in the voice business, combined with a less favourable destination mix.
As in previous quarters, the EBITDA did
Q1 revenues were up by 0.7% yoy. A good number indeed as Domestic revenues were up by a very solid 3.2% while revenue from BICS (the International Carrier division combined with that of the African telco MTN) were down by 6.6%, like in Q4, due to a less favourable destination mix.
And, as in 2016, the good news was the strong increase in EBITDA (+4% yoy, the regional pylon tax effect aside) driven by the ongoing firm reduction in operating expenses.
Taking into account the implementation of ‘R
Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on Proximus SA de droit public.
We currently have 24 research reports from 2
Reaching the Inflection Point
Companies: CyanConnode Holdings plc
CyanConnode is a market-leading provider of telecommunications technology in the smart meter industry and is currently geared towards the vast expansion programme of electricity meter set out by the Government of India. In the past year it has built on its prior success, growing revenue by c50% and reducing net losses by c60% bringing it closer to profitability. CyanConnode trades on an FY1 EV/Sales multiple of 2.7x, which is a discount to its peer group trading on 4.1x. This leads us to an impl
Companies: SRT Marine Systems plc
No leavers today.
Leavers: No leavers today.
What’s cooking in the IPO kitchen?**
Milton Capital Plc, a new type of special purpose acquisition company, intends to join the Standard Segment of the Main Market. The directors intend to search initially for acquisition opportunities in the technology sector. The focus for the prospective acquisition is megatrends. This includes sectors such as space, artificial intelligence, machine learning and blockchain technology. Ticker upon admission
Companies: VRCI BRCK FUM INDI ORR OBD QFI RGD REDX SRT
SRT Marine has today issued a trading update for the six months ending 30
September 2022. H1 23 revenue of £18.8m was up considerably (300%) on
the £4.7m reported at H1 22. The principal driver of this growth is the fact
that the Systems division passed a number of key milestones, generating
revenue of c.£13.6m, up from £0.5m the year before. Management
estimates that a minimum profit before tax of £1.5m was generated in the
period, versus a loss of £3.1m at H1 22. The statement confirms
Progressive Equity Research
FY22 results confirm that the year to March was in line with expectations. Systems deployments were delayed by lockdowns so virtually all the sales were from the Transceivers business, itself struggling to meet growing demand while constrained by component shortages. Meanwhile, SRT continued to invest in its product portfolio and capability to deliver multiple large Systems projects around the world, resulting in a significant loss for the year. However, that investment has substantially improve
Friday's market sell off saw some violent downward moves in many stocks with little initial differentiation between sectors or the key drivers of businesses, creating significant share price drops in a number of higher quality or uncorrelated names. We take a look at some stocks we believe have either seen an unwarranted sell-off, have seen weakness go under the radar or where there is now a more attractive opportunity.
Companies: ANX IBPO CYAN SOM EQT AFM
CyanConnode has steadily been making progress in India, where the national smart meter programme has been gathering pace. In July 2022, the company crossed the one million mark for meters connected to its RF network across nine Indian states. This is the aggregate RF device number in India connected since 2014 and represents market share of 22%. The latest update from the company states an order book of 2.6m RF nodes for India. Performance of smart meters is a critical aspect of the Indian progr
Hardman & Co
Significant contract resumed and further cost cuts
CyanConnode released a solid trading update on 12 January which confirmed the Group was trading in line with market forecasts and demonstrated the renewed momentum the Group has seen in the past 12 months as COVID restrictions have eased and deliveries have accelerated. With a cash balance at end of December of £1 million, we believe cash will have been received from customers post period end. We understand debtors are in the region of £5.5m in India alone and with the Indian subsidiary now bein
A bland trading update with Q1 service revenues up by 2.5% yoy and lfl (vs+ 2.5% in Q4).
We maintain our opinion at Buy. The stock is currently around the 130p level. We are still waiting for a catalyst to boost the stock which remains discounted to its peers due to the scepticism and mistrust towards its CEO (under fire after missing opportunities in Italy, Spain and with Vantage).
Companies: Vodafone Group Plc
Companies: BATM Advanced Communications Ltd.