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Q3: ABI lowers guidance on the back of weak Brazil

  • 28 Oct 16

ABI Q3 update: On an organic basis, revenue grew +2.8% (cons. +3.4%). Volumes were down 0.9% (cons. -1.5%). Revenue per hl stood at 3.8%. On the reported figures, revenue is down 2.3%. The EBITDA margin contracted by 240bp on a reported basis and by 178bp on organic basis (due to Brazil). Organic sales by region: North America -0.3% (cons. +0.7%), Mexico +12% (cons. +8.1%), LatAm North -5% (cons. +3.1%), LatAm South 22.2% (cons. 12.2%), Europe +3.1% (cons. +3%) and Asia 5% (cons. 4.9%). Volumes by region: North America -2.4% (cons. -0.8%), Mexico +9.6% (cons. +5%), LatAm North -4.5% (cons. -4%), LatAm South -1.7% (cons. -7%), Europe -3.2% (cons. +0.3%) and Asia 1.2% (cons. +0%). By most important market, the US performance in Q3 was weak (both STRs and STWs were down by respectively –2.6% and -2.5%, ABI continued also to lose some market share to STRs). Brazil was very weak (volumes down 5.1%, pricing was negative, and there was a huge EBITDA margin deterioration from 50.2% to 37.8%). Mexico seems robust. China delivered good results (volumes +1.6% and 417bp EBITDA margin progression). The group cut its FY guidance for pricing to now be in line with inflation (vs. ahead of inflation) due to a weak Brazil. ABI had expected Brazil to be flat in revenue for the FY, which is no longer the case. The company expects that unfavourable hedges linked to the devaluation of the Brazilian real will impact COGS before easing by mid-FY17.

Weak Q2 but who cares when China gives clearance & the SABM Board recommends the offer

  • 29 Jul 16

Q2 update. On an organic basis, revenue grew +4% (cons +5.8%). Volumes were down -1.7% (cons +1%). Revenue per hl stood at 5.9%. On the reported figures, revenue is down -2.2%. The EBITDA margin contracted by 50 bps (due to LatAm). Organic sales by region: North America +2.2% (cons. +1%), Mexico +9.5% (cons. +11%), LatAm North +1.7% (cons. +9.2%), LatAm South 4.1% (cons. +15%), Europe +4.6% (cons. +4%) and Asia 4.1% (cons. +5%). Volumes by region: North America +0.4% (cons. -0.7%), Mexico +7.2% (cons. +8%), LatAm North -4.6% (cons. +1.3%), LatAm South -14.8% (cons. -5%), Europe -0.8% (cons. +1.2%) and Asia –1.7% (cons. +1.2%). Taking the most important markets, the US delivered good results which were an improvement on the Q1 (volumes were practically flat -0.3% with flat STRs and STWs down -0.9%, whereas the EBITDA margin was up +92bp). Mexico recorded another quarter of strong growth (volumes +9.9%, the margin was negatively impacted by the timing of sales and marketing investments). Brazil’s performance was weak and reflects the challenging macro environment (volumes -4.7%, organic EBITDA margin was down 217bp). China’s performance was good given the weak industrial environment (volumes -1.8% vs. market -8%, organic EBITDA margin was up +553bp on the back of premium portfolio). The company amended its FY guidance and now expects Brazilian net revenue to be flat for the FY (mid to high-single-digit previously).

Q4 leaves a taste of disappointment

  • 25 Feb 16

ABI released its Q4 and FY results. In Q4, total volumes declined 0.7% (cons 0%) whereas revenue grew organically +7% (cons +6.5%). The normalised EBITDA grew +6.6% (cons 6.5%). Revenue per hl grew 7.7%. On reported figures, sales stood at $10.7bn (cons $11.1bn) and normalised EBITDA was at $4.3bn (cons $4.58bn). Q4 organic volumes by region: NorAm -2.9% (cons. -1%), Mexico +11.3% (cons. +5%), LatAm North -2.6% (cons. +1.1%), LatAm South -3.7% (cons. +0.9%), Europe + 2.9% (cons. -3%) and Asia Pacific -0.2 (cons -1%). Q4 organic revenue by region: NorAm -0.6% (cons. 0.2%), Mexico +13.9% (cons. +8%), LatAm North +7.1% (cons +9%), LatAm South -+24.1% (cons. +28.5%), Europe + 8.9% (cons. +3%) and Asia Pacific 11% (cons +4.8%). Taking the most important markets, in Q4, the *US* volumes were down 3.3% (STWs were down 3.3% STRs were down 1.1%) whereas the organic EBITDA margin contracted 246bp (poor quarter). *Mexico* recorded another strong quarter with volumes up +11.3% and a 352bp organic EBITDA margin improvement. In *Brazil*, volumes stood at -3.5% whereas the EBITDA margin was up 34bp (a good performance in a difficult economic context). *China* remained fragile with volumes practically flat (-0.2% vs. -6% for the whole industry, good performance overall). On a FY basis, total volumes were down 0.6%, organic revenue was up +6.3% (-7% on reported figures). The normalised EBITDA margin was up 55bp organically and down 80bp on a reported basis. Proposed interim dividend is €2.00 (€3.60 for the FY vs. €3.00 last year).

Solid Q3, China disappoints

  • 30 Oct 15

ABI released its Q3 update. Revenue grew +7.9% organically (consensus +6.7%) whereas organic volumes were up +1.5% (cons. +0.9%). Revenue per hl grew 6.3%. On reported figures revenue was down by 7.1% due to an adverse FX effect. Total normalised EBITDA margin progressed by 58bp organically and was 10bp down on a reported basis. Organic revenue growth by region: NorAm +2.8% (cons. +2%), Mexico +14.2% (cons. +7%), LatAm North +11.6% (cons. +8.9%), LatAm South +27.4% (cons. +25.2%), Europe + 9.4% (cons. +4%) and Asia Pacific +4.4% (cons. 9+%). As for the most important markets, the US improved its volumes by 1.2% (STWs were up +1.2% on easy comps, STRs were down 2.1%) whereas the organic EBITDA margin expanded by 14bp. Mexico recorded an excellent quarter with volumes up +11.5% and a 256bp organic EBITDA margin improvement. In Brazil, volumes stood at 3.5% (on easier comps, additionally supported by favourable weather) whereas the EBITDA margin contracted by 59bp. China remains weak (economic slowdown and poor weather) with volumes down by 1.3% whereas organic EBITDA margin progressed by only 29bp. The company reported higher than expected net finance costs in the quarter (-$810m vs. -$366m in Q3 14) linked to the hedging the share-based payment programme (mark-to-market loss of $585m). ABI raised its guidance saying that revenue per hl will increase ahead of inflation due to higher than expected premium brand volumes (in line with inflation previously). COGS per hl should also increase due to premiumisation but revenue per hl should more than offset this COGS increase. The proposed interim dividend is €1.60. As a reminder, the period for ABI to put in a firm offer for SABM has been extended to 4 November.