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Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on ANHEUSER-BUSCH INBEV SA NV. We currently have 6 research reports from 1 professional analysts.
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ANHEUSER-BUSCH INBEV SA NV
ANHEUSER-BUSCH INBEV SA NV
Q3: ABI lowers guidance on the back of weak Brazil
28 Oct 16
ABI Q3 update: On an organic basis, revenue grew +2.8% (cons. +3.4%). Volumes were down 0.9% (cons. -1.5%). Revenue per hl stood at 3.8%. On the reported figures, revenue is down 2.3%. The EBITDA margin contracted by 240bp on a reported basis and by 178bp on organic basis (due to Brazil). Organic sales by region: North America -0.3% (cons. +0.7%), Mexico +12% (cons. +8.1%), LatAm North -5% (cons. +3.1%), LatAm South 22.2% (cons. 12.2%), Europe +3.1% (cons. +3%) and Asia 5% (cons. 4.9%). Volumes by region: North America -2.4% (cons. -0.8%), Mexico +9.6% (cons. +5%), LatAm North -4.5% (cons. -4%), LatAm South -1.7% (cons. -7%), Europe -3.2% (cons. +0.3%) and Asia 1.2% (cons. +0%). By most important market, the US performance in Q3 was weak (both STRs and STWs were down by respectively –2.6% and -2.5%, ABI continued also to lose some market share to STRs). Brazil was very weak (volumes down 5.1%, pricing was negative, and there was a huge EBITDA margin deterioration from 50.2% to 37.8%). Mexico seems robust. China delivered good results (volumes +1.6% and 417bp EBITDA margin progression). The group cut its FY guidance for pricing to now be in line with inflation (vs. ahead of inflation) due to a weak Brazil. ABI had expected Brazil to be flat in revenue for the FY, which is no longer the case. The company expects that unfavourable hedges linked to the devaluation of the Brazilian real will impact COGS before easing by mid-FY17.
Weak Q2 but who cares when China gives clearance & the SABM Board recommends the offer
29 Jul 16
Q2 update. On an organic basis, revenue grew +4% (cons +5.8%). Volumes were down -1.7% (cons +1%). Revenue per hl stood at 5.9%. On the reported figures, revenue is down -2.2%. The EBITDA margin contracted by 50 bps (due to LatAm). Organic sales by region: North America +2.2% (cons. +1%), Mexico +9.5% (cons. +11%), LatAm North +1.7% (cons. +9.2%), LatAm South 4.1% (cons. +15%), Europe +4.6% (cons. +4%) and Asia 4.1% (cons. +5%). Volumes by region: North America +0.4% (cons. -0.7%), Mexico +7.2% (cons. +8%), LatAm North -4.6% (cons. +1.3%), LatAm South -14.8% (cons. -5%), Europe -0.8% (cons. +1.2%) and Asia –1.7% (cons. +1.2%). Taking the most important markets, the US delivered good results which were an improvement on the Q1 (volumes were practically flat -0.3% with flat STRs and STWs down -0.9%, whereas the EBITDA margin was up +92bp). Mexico recorded another quarter of strong growth (volumes +9.9%, the margin was negatively impacted by the timing of sales and marketing investments). Brazil’s performance was weak and reflects the challenging macro environment (volumes -4.7%, organic EBITDA margin was down 217bp). China’s performance was good given the weak industrial environment (volumes -1.8% vs. market -8%, organic EBITDA margin was up +553bp on the back of premium portfolio). The company amended its FY guidance and now expects Brazilian net revenue to be flat for the FY (mid to high-single-digit previously).
Q1 disappoints on Brazilian weakness
04 May 16
ABI reported its Q1. Volumes were down 1.7% (cons. -0.3%). Organic revenue was up 3.1% (cons. 6.1%). Revenue per hl stood at 4.9%. On reported figures, revenues were down 10% whereas the normalised EBITDA margin contracted by 120bp. Organic volumes by region: Northe America -1.1% (cons. 0.1%), Mexico +13% (cons. +8%), LatAm North -7.3% (cons. -3.5%), LatAm South -5.3% (cons. -2%), Europe +1.8% (cons. +0.5%) and Asia -0.5% (cons. 0%). Taking the most important markets, the US delivered good results (volumes down 1.2% with STRs -0.3% and STWs down -1.2%, whereas the EBITDA margin was up +82bp). Mexico delivered another quarter of solid growth (volumes +13%, however the margin was negatively impacted by the timing of sales and marketing investments). Brazil’s performance reflects the challenging macro environment (volumes -8.5%, organic EBITDA margin was down 96bp). China’s performance was neutral (volumes -1.1% vs. market -4%, organic EBITDA margin up +76bp). The group expects the challenging environment to continue but initiatives which have been put in place should mitigate the impact. Consequently, ABI remains cautiously optimistic about the rest of the year and maintains its guidance.
Q4 leaves a taste of disappointment
25 Feb 16
ABI released its Q4 and FY results. In Q4, total volumes declined 0.7% (cons 0%) whereas revenue grew organically +7% (cons +6.5%). The normalised EBITDA grew +6.6% (cons 6.5%). Revenue per hl grew 7.7%. On reported figures, sales stood at $10.7bn (cons $11.1bn) and normalised EBITDA was at $4.3bn (cons $4.58bn). Q4 organic volumes by region: NorAm -2.9% (cons. -1%), Mexico +11.3% (cons. +5%), LatAm North -2.6% (cons. +1.1%), LatAm South -3.7% (cons. +0.9%), Europe + 2.9% (cons. -3%) and Asia Pacific -0.2 (cons -1%). Q4 organic revenue by region: NorAm -0.6% (cons. 0.2%), Mexico +13.9% (cons. +8%), LatAm North +7.1% (cons +9%), LatAm South -+24.1% (cons. +28.5%), Europe + 8.9% (cons. +3%) and Asia Pacific 11% (cons +4.8%). Taking the most important markets, in Q4, the *US* volumes were down 3.3% (STWs were down 3.3% STRs were down 1.1%) whereas the organic EBITDA margin contracted 246bp (poor quarter). *Mexico* recorded another strong quarter with volumes up +11.3% and a 352bp organic EBITDA margin improvement. In *Brazil*, volumes stood at -3.5% whereas the EBITDA margin was up 34bp (a good performance in a difficult economic context). *China* remained fragile with volumes practically flat (-0.2% vs. -6% for the whole industry, good performance overall). On a FY basis, total volumes were down 0.6%, organic revenue was up +6.3% (-7% on reported figures). The normalised EBITDA margin was up 55bp organically and down 80bp on a reported basis. Proposed interim dividend is €2.00 (€3.60 for the FY vs. €3.00 last year).
Solid Q3, China disappoints
30 Oct 15
ABI released its Q3 update. Revenue grew +7.9% organically (consensus +6.7%) whereas organic volumes were up +1.5% (cons. +0.9%). Revenue per hl grew 6.3%. On reported figures revenue was down by 7.1% due to an adverse FX effect. Total normalised EBITDA margin progressed by 58bp organically and was 10bp down on a reported basis. Organic revenue growth by region: NorAm +2.8% (cons. +2%), Mexico +14.2% (cons. +7%), LatAm North +11.6% (cons. +8.9%), LatAm South +27.4% (cons. +25.2%), Europe + 9.4% (cons. +4%) and Asia Pacific +4.4% (cons. 9+%). As for the most important markets, the US improved its volumes by 1.2% (STWs were up +1.2% on easy comps, STRs were down 2.1%) whereas the organic EBITDA margin expanded by 14bp. Mexico recorded an excellent quarter with volumes up +11.5% and a 256bp organic EBITDA margin improvement. In Brazil, volumes stood at 3.5% (on easier comps, additionally supported by favourable weather) whereas the EBITDA margin contracted by 59bp. China remains weak (economic slowdown and poor weather) with volumes down by 1.3% whereas organic EBITDA margin progressed by only 29bp. The company reported higher than expected net finance costs in the quarter (-$810m vs. -$366m in Q3 14) linked to the hedging the share-based payment programme (mark-to-market loss of $585m). ABI raised its guidance saying that revenue per hl will increase ahead of inflation due to higher than expected premium brand volumes (in line with inflation previously). COGS per hl should also increase due to premiumisation but revenue per hl should more than offset this COGS increase. The proposed interim dividend is €1.60. As a reminder, the period for ABI to put in a firm offer for SABM has been extended to 4 November.
31 Jul 15
ABI reported its Q2 numbers. Sales stood at €11.05bn (consensus at €11.6bn), down by -11.6% yoy (FX at -11.6%). On a constant basis, the revenue grew by 4.1% (cons. at 5.6%). Total volumes declined by 2.2% (beer -2.1%, non-alcohol beverage -2.9%) vs. consensus at -0.2%. Organic volumes by region: North America -0.9% (cons. at 1%), Mexico 4% (cons. at 2%), LatAm North -6.5% (cons. at -4%), LatAm South 5.5% (cons. at 1%), Europe -7.6% (cons. at -5.5%), Asia Pacific -1.6% (cons. at 3.8%). By country, the US saw a 1.1% volume decline and a -303bp yoy slide in the organic EBITDA margin. Mexico remains strong with volume growth (4.10%) and margin progression (+308bp). In Brazil, excluding the World Cup, beer volumes were down by -3.1% due to the unfavourable macro-economic environment, nevertheless the organic EBITDA margin progressed by 229bp. China's volumes were flattish (slightly down) whereas the organic EBITDA margin progressed by 378bp. On reported figures, the Q2 normalised EBITDA was down by -14.3% (FX at -12%) whereas the normalised EBITDA margin decreased by 70bp. Volumes of three Global brands increased by 6.4% (vs. 4.6%) with Budweiser up by 6%, Corona up by 7.4% and Stella Artois up by 4.9%. The share buy-back programme ($1bn, announced in February) was completed.
The Monthly January 2017
09 Jan 17
Despite all the hullaballoo of the Brexit vote and the subsequent election of Donald Trump as the next US President, the UK stock market prospered last year, especially in the latter few months of 2016. The combination of a depreciating currency – making $ earnings more valuable in relative terms - and the Trump emphasis on infrastructure expenditure drove the stock market higher
Panmure Morning Note 19-01-2017
19 Jan 17
Today’s H1FY17 pre-close is more than just solid; it demonstrates FIF’s resilience. As flagged at September’s FY16 results and, as demonstrated by both November’s reassuring AGM trading statement and today’s encouraging H1FY17’s pre-close, FIF is both well-prepared and well-equipped to offset considerable input cost pressures and maintain its progress on multiple levels, whilst the scope for accretive M&A in a highly fragmented market remains an added attraction. We maintain our BUY.
Agriculture starts FY2017 ahead of expectations
10 Jan 17
Carr’s Group’s (CARR LN, HOLD, T/P 175p) issued a statement today which confirmed that the company continues to trade in line with the Board’s expectations for the current financial year. The announcement refers to 18- week period which ended on 7th January and is the first pre-AGM statement since the disposal of the flour milling business for £36m.
10 for 17
09 Jan 17
As always at the start of a year, there are significant uncertainties about the year ahead but I think in 2017, the level of uncertainly has decisively moved up a gear. In fact, a leading economist at the LSE, Ethan Ilzetzki, was recently quoted as saying “I view the current global economic environment as the most uncertain in modern history”. Wow.
Joy of Techs
21 Nov 16
ICT evolution is driven by technological development as advances are made which both meet and shape customer requirements. Our 2011 note No such thing as a telco described the modern reality in that former ‘telcos’ now deliver varying elements of a range of managed services. We built on this theme last year, exploring in further detail their evolutionary paths, operating fundamentals, and cashflow yield similarities. In the consumer environment, demand for bundles of technology is complemented by demand for content. Across the pond, the mooted combination of AT&T and Time Warner typifies the bundled need of ‘pipe’ and content, since unbundled alternatives such as FaceTime and WhatsApp can be easier and clearer to chat over, and Amazon and Netflix are easier to watch anywhere. In the UK, BT’s defensive actions cover delivery, content and capabilities, acquiring EE yet also buying football rights. While TV was long ago added to triple play to become quad play, voice is now merely an app, and fixed and mobile seen as just dumb pipes: it's the content that will influence consumer choices. Growth of TV and film as well as music and gaming over IP leads to UK small cap opportunities. In context of the drive to maximise value from pipes and access by offering content and data, we look at some amongst the potential tech small cap beneficiaries: Amino*, Keyword Studios, ZOO Digital*, 7digital*, KCOM* and CityFibre*.