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Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on ANHEUSER-BUSCH INBEV SA NV. We currently have 6 research reports from 1 professional analysts.
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ANHEUSER-BUSCH INBEV SA NV
ANHEUSER-BUSCH INBEV SA NV
Q3: ABI lowers guidance on the back of weak Brazil
28 Oct 16
ABI Q3 update: On an organic basis, revenue grew +2.8% (cons. +3.4%). Volumes were down 0.9% (cons. -1.5%). Revenue per hl stood at 3.8%. On the reported figures, revenue is down 2.3%. The EBITDA margin contracted by 240bp on a reported basis and by 178bp on organic basis (due to Brazil). Organic sales by region: North America -0.3% (cons. +0.7%), Mexico +12% (cons. +8.1%), LatAm North -5% (cons. +3.1%), LatAm South 22.2% (cons. 12.2%), Europe +3.1% (cons. +3%) and Asia 5% (cons. 4.9%). Volumes by region: North America -2.4% (cons. -0.8%), Mexico +9.6% (cons. +5%), LatAm North -4.5% (cons. -4%), LatAm South -1.7% (cons. -7%), Europe -3.2% (cons. +0.3%) and Asia 1.2% (cons. +0%). By most important market, the US performance in Q3 was weak (both STRs and STWs were down by respectively –2.6% and -2.5%, ABI continued also to lose some market share to STRs). Brazil was very weak (volumes down 5.1%, pricing was negative, and there was a huge EBITDA margin deterioration from 50.2% to 37.8%). Mexico seems robust. China delivered good results (volumes +1.6% and 417bp EBITDA margin progression). The group cut its FY guidance for pricing to now be in line with inflation (vs. ahead of inflation) due to a weak Brazil. ABI had expected Brazil to be flat in revenue for the FY, which is no longer the case. The company expects that unfavourable hedges linked to the devaluation of the Brazilian real will impact COGS before easing by mid-FY17.
Weak Q2 but who cares when China gives clearance & the SABM Board recommends the offer
29 Jul 16
Q2 update. On an organic basis, revenue grew +4% (cons +5.8%). Volumes were down -1.7% (cons +1%). Revenue per hl stood at 5.9%. On the reported figures, revenue is down -2.2%. The EBITDA margin contracted by 50 bps (due to LatAm). Organic sales by region: North America +2.2% (cons. +1%), Mexico +9.5% (cons. +11%), LatAm North +1.7% (cons. +9.2%), LatAm South 4.1% (cons. +15%), Europe +4.6% (cons. +4%) and Asia 4.1% (cons. +5%). Volumes by region: North America +0.4% (cons. -0.7%), Mexico +7.2% (cons. +8%), LatAm North -4.6% (cons. +1.3%), LatAm South -14.8% (cons. -5%), Europe -0.8% (cons. +1.2%) and Asia –1.7% (cons. +1.2%). Taking the most important markets, the US delivered good results which were an improvement on the Q1 (volumes were practically flat -0.3% with flat STRs and STWs down -0.9%, whereas the EBITDA margin was up +92bp). Mexico recorded another quarter of strong growth (volumes +9.9%, the margin was negatively impacted by the timing of sales and marketing investments). Brazil’s performance was weak and reflects the challenging macro environment (volumes -4.7%, organic EBITDA margin was down 217bp). China’s performance was good given the weak industrial environment (volumes -1.8% vs. market -8%, organic EBITDA margin was up +553bp on the back of premium portfolio). The company amended its FY guidance and now expects Brazilian net revenue to be flat for the FY (mid to high-single-digit previously).
Q1 disappoints on Brazilian weakness
04 May 16
ABI reported its Q1. Volumes were down 1.7% (cons. -0.3%). Organic revenue was up 3.1% (cons. 6.1%). Revenue per hl stood at 4.9%. On reported figures, revenues were down 10% whereas the normalised EBITDA margin contracted by 120bp. Organic volumes by region: Northe America -1.1% (cons. 0.1%), Mexico +13% (cons. +8%), LatAm North -7.3% (cons. -3.5%), LatAm South -5.3% (cons. -2%), Europe +1.8% (cons. +0.5%) and Asia -0.5% (cons. 0%). Taking the most important markets, the US delivered good results (volumes down 1.2% with STRs -0.3% and STWs down -1.2%, whereas the EBITDA margin was up +82bp). Mexico delivered another quarter of solid growth (volumes +13%, however the margin was negatively impacted by the timing of sales and marketing investments). Brazil’s performance reflects the challenging macro environment (volumes -8.5%, organic EBITDA margin was down 96bp). China’s performance was neutral (volumes -1.1% vs. market -4%, organic EBITDA margin up +76bp). The group expects the challenging environment to continue but initiatives which have been put in place should mitigate the impact. Consequently, ABI remains cautiously optimistic about the rest of the year and maintains its guidance.
Q4 leaves a taste of disappointment
25 Feb 16
ABI released its Q4 and FY results. In Q4, total volumes declined 0.7% (cons 0%) whereas revenue grew organically +7% (cons +6.5%). The normalised EBITDA grew +6.6% (cons 6.5%). Revenue per hl grew 7.7%. On reported figures, sales stood at $10.7bn (cons $11.1bn) and normalised EBITDA was at $4.3bn (cons $4.58bn). Q4 organic volumes by region: NorAm -2.9% (cons. -1%), Mexico +11.3% (cons. +5%), LatAm North -2.6% (cons. +1.1%), LatAm South -3.7% (cons. +0.9%), Europe + 2.9% (cons. -3%) and Asia Pacific -0.2 (cons -1%). Q4 organic revenue by region: NorAm -0.6% (cons. 0.2%), Mexico +13.9% (cons. +8%), LatAm North +7.1% (cons +9%), LatAm South -+24.1% (cons. +28.5%), Europe + 8.9% (cons. +3%) and Asia Pacific 11% (cons +4.8%). Taking the most important markets, in Q4, the *US* volumes were down 3.3% (STWs were down 3.3% STRs were down 1.1%) whereas the organic EBITDA margin contracted 246bp (poor quarter). *Mexico* recorded another strong quarter with volumes up +11.3% and a 352bp organic EBITDA margin improvement. In *Brazil*, volumes stood at -3.5% whereas the EBITDA margin was up 34bp (a good performance in a difficult economic context). *China* remained fragile with volumes practically flat (-0.2% vs. -6% for the whole industry, good performance overall). On a FY basis, total volumes were down 0.6%, organic revenue was up +6.3% (-7% on reported figures). The normalised EBITDA margin was up 55bp organically and down 80bp on a reported basis. Proposed interim dividend is €2.00 (€3.60 for the FY vs. €3.00 last year).
Solid Q3, China disappoints
30 Oct 15
ABI released its Q3 update. Revenue grew +7.9% organically (consensus +6.7%) whereas organic volumes were up +1.5% (cons. +0.9%). Revenue per hl grew 6.3%. On reported figures revenue was down by 7.1% due to an adverse FX effect. Total normalised EBITDA margin progressed by 58bp organically and was 10bp down on a reported basis. Organic revenue growth by region: NorAm +2.8% (cons. +2%), Mexico +14.2% (cons. +7%), LatAm North +11.6% (cons. +8.9%), LatAm South +27.4% (cons. +25.2%), Europe + 9.4% (cons. +4%) and Asia Pacific +4.4% (cons. 9+%). As for the most important markets, the US improved its volumes by 1.2% (STWs were up +1.2% on easy comps, STRs were down 2.1%) whereas the organic EBITDA margin expanded by 14bp. Mexico recorded an excellent quarter with volumes up +11.5% and a 256bp organic EBITDA margin improvement. In Brazil, volumes stood at 3.5% (on easier comps, additionally supported by favourable weather) whereas the EBITDA margin contracted by 59bp. China remains weak (economic slowdown and poor weather) with volumes down by 1.3% whereas organic EBITDA margin progressed by only 29bp. The company reported higher than expected net finance costs in the quarter (-$810m vs. -$366m in Q3 14) linked to the hedging the share-based payment programme (mark-to-market loss of $585m). ABI raised its guidance saying that revenue per hl will increase ahead of inflation due to higher than expected premium brand volumes (in line with inflation previously). COGS per hl should also increase due to premiumisation but revenue per hl should more than offset this COGS increase. The proposed interim dividend is €1.60. As a reminder, the period for ABI to put in a firm offer for SABM has been extended to 4 November.
31 Jul 15
ABI reported its Q2 numbers. Sales stood at €11.05bn (consensus at €11.6bn), down by -11.6% yoy (FX at -11.6%). On a constant basis, the revenue grew by 4.1% (cons. at 5.6%). Total volumes declined by 2.2% (beer -2.1%, non-alcohol beverage -2.9%) vs. consensus at -0.2%. Organic volumes by region: North America -0.9% (cons. at 1%), Mexico 4% (cons. at 2%), LatAm North -6.5% (cons. at -4%), LatAm South 5.5% (cons. at 1%), Europe -7.6% (cons. at -5.5%), Asia Pacific -1.6% (cons. at 3.8%). By country, the US saw a 1.1% volume decline and a -303bp yoy slide in the organic EBITDA margin. Mexico remains strong with volume growth (4.10%) and margin progression (+308bp). In Brazil, excluding the World Cup, beer volumes were down by -3.1% due to the unfavourable macro-economic environment, nevertheless the organic EBITDA margin progressed by 229bp. China's volumes were flattish (slightly down) whereas the organic EBITDA margin progressed by 378bp. On reported figures, the Q2 normalised EBITDA was down by -14.3% (FX at -12%) whereas the normalised EBITDA margin decreased by 70bp. Volumes of three Global brands increased by 6.4% (vs. 4.6%) with Budweiser up by 6%, Corona up by 7.4% and Stella Artois up by 4.9%. The share buy-back programme ($1bn, announced in February) was completed.
13 Feb 17
Middlesbrough-based pawnbroker Ramsdens Holdings is set to join AIM on 15 February. Its growth is not coming from its core business but from providing foreign currency, pre-paid travel cards and international payments. The strategy is to increase the group’s online activities and grow the number of branches. In the year to March 2016, group revenues improved from £29.2m to £30m. The accounts of the main subsidiary show that foreign-currency margin rose from £5.36m to £7.59m. This contributes 35% of group gross profit. By contrast, the core business of pawnbroking, precious metal purchases and retail sales fell from £21.3m to £19.8m. Revenues from other financial services were flat at £2.6m. Ramsdens has 127 sites and last year it made an operating profit of £3.19m. In the six months to September 2016, revenues increased from £16.2m to £18.4m and operating profit improved from £2.81m to £3.48m. The placing will raise £15.6m at 86p a share, valuing the company at £26.5m. NorthEdge Capital, which backed a buyout in September 2014, will receive just over £10m from share sales. The NorthEdge stake will fall from 75.6% to 30.7%. The other £5m will go to the company and be used to repay the remaining loan notes and the costs of the flotation. By the end of March 2016, there were still £4m of loan notes outstanding to NorthEdge, with £4.86m paid off during the previous year.
Salient play in a healthy industry
16 Feb 17
PepsiCo’s (PEP US, N/R) full year figures reconfirmed growth expectations for the US FMCG giant in 2017. PepsiCo – which generates one third of its revenue from North American beverages – looks for 3% organic sales growth in 2017. Our own view about UK soft drinks remains positive. Flexibility around sugar, ongoing innovation, potential price support from a sugar tax and further M&A are all consistent with the industry maintaining sales growth and delivering positive share price performances.
The Quest for Dividends
01 Feb 17
The Dow Jones Index has just breached the 20,000 mark, the first time in its 131- year history that it has done so, whilst the FTSE-100 Index has also been at record levels in recent weeks. The election of the controversial Donald Trump as the new US President, and more specifically the impact of his planned expansionist economic policies, have boosted stock markets, both in the US and in the UK.
New CEO resets targets: cost savings ahead, mid single-digit top-line target by 2020
16 Feb 17
Nestle’s FY and Q4 update: In Q4, sales grew organically +2.9% (weaker than 3.5% expected). In Q4, Zone Americas, EMENA and Others slowed down compared to the previous quarter. Zone AOA (+4.4%), Waters (+5.4%) and Nestle Nutrition performed better than in Q3. On a FY basis, organic sales are up +3.2% (cons. 3.4%) with RIG +2.4% and pricing of 0.8%. On reported figures, sales are up +0.8 (FX: -1.6%). The trading operating margin is up 30bp on constant FX and +20bp on reported figures (in line with consensus). FY17 outlook: top-line growth of 2-4%, stable operating margin as a result of a considerable increase in restructuring costs to drive future profitability. EPS is expected to rise at constant FX and capital efficiency is also expected to rise. For the mid-term, Nestlé targets mid single-digit top-line growth and 200bp in structural cost savings by 2020. The proposed dividend is CHF2.30 (vs. CHF2.25 last year).
Foundations laid; building starts
15 Feb 17
Last week RM posted a reassuring set of prelims (adj. PBT 4% ahead) that showed continued progress within RM Education (+6% EBIT gr’th) and RM Results (+22% EBIT gr’th) – achievements that shouldn’t be overshadowed by the challenging (but temporary) external market, which is weighing on RM Resources (-9% EBIT). Indeed, combined with Connect Education & Care, we are bullish on the division’s long-term prospects, and as such we raise our target price to 207p and retain our Buy recommendation.