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NAV tracking in line with forecasts GBL posted a NAV of EUR113/share at the end of December 2023, up from EUR109 at end Q3 23 and broadly in line with our EUR112/share estimate. Portfolio evolution in Q4 reflected: 1) a slight increase in listed assets of EUR72m; 2) continued gains in fair value at the private portfolio companies thanks to healthcare-related businesses; and 3) a slight uplift at GBL Capital driven by funds and co-investments. The discount to NAV at the end of last year stood at 37% compared to 35% at end Q3 23. Cash earnings broadly stable - great deal of cash return Cash earnings in 2023 were broadly stable at EUR414m (versus EUR412m in 2022) as gains in dividend received were offset by lower distribution from GBL Capital (likely due to slower pace of exits at underlying funds). Over 2023, GBL returned c.EUR1.2bn to shareholders in dividends and share buybacks while cancelling 6.3m shares. The group also announced that it will propose to cancel 8.3m treasury shares at the next AGM. TP adjusted - Outperform maintained We have cut our 2024/2025 cash earnings estimates by 11% to reflect the partial sale of Pernod Ricard and the full exit from Mowi. We have adjusted our TP from EUR91 to EUR89 (still based on a 25% discount to NAV, in line with history). The shares trade at a c40% discount to our EUR119 spot NAV, up from 35% at the end of Q3, an increase in line with the subsector. We maintain our Outperform rating on the back of 1) potential for hidden value in private assets accounting for 34% of capital and 2) further capital deployment thanks to sizable firepower.
Groupe Bruxelles Lambert Groupe Bruxelles Lambert SA
• FY23 NAV came in at EUR 113.6 p/s, down 2.2% YoY and slightly above our estimate (EUR 112.6). GBL proposes stable dividend at EUR 2.75 p/s, as guided at H1• We estimate today's NAV at EUR 116.1 p/s, which points to a discount of 40.9%. This is quite elevated compared to the long-term average of ~25%. Applying our target discount of 30%, we keep our TP at EUR 89• Despite our TP offering ~30% upside, we believe the sentiment surrounding GBL is suboptimal. We believe the firm needs to regain trust of investors by realizing attractive NAV growth. This
In 2023, GBL is clearly delivering on its strategic ambitions with regard to both the development of its third-party management business and the active rotation of its portfolio towards unlisted assets. To crown it all, through dividends and share buybacks, GBL is committed to delivering attractive shareholder returns of around €1.2bn in FY 2023. Nevertheless, Q3 23 was disappointing in terms of the NAV, which fell by 8% driven down by the listed assets.
NAV at EUR 109.2 p/s, down 8.5% QoQ and in line with our estimate of EUR 107.47th share buyback envelope approved with another EUR 500m to be put to use or ~5% of its market capStrategic management changes at GBL Capital We estimate today's NAV at EUR 109.1 p/s, implying a discount of 34.4%.We reiterate our Hold rating and keep our EUR 89 TP unchanged
Although GBL is pursuing the strategic development of its private assets with the growth of GBL Capital via an active portfolio rotation and recorded a solid performance from the unlisted assets over 9m, GBL’s NAV again moved lower, with an 8% decline qoq and 10% YTD. On a more positive note, the discount to NAV has been reduced by 410bps.
GBL ended the half-year with welcome news for its investors: an acceleration in the execution of its €500m share buy-back programme with a €130m additional envelope. In terms of net income and cash earnings, the HoldCo is in the green. The blemish on the picture remains NAV, down 6% qoq, penalised by the downward revaluation of Webhelp due to market fears about the negative impact of AI on its business. Yet, the discount to NAV is at an all-time high.
Net asset value tracking in line with forecasts GBL posted a NAV of EUR119/share at end of H1 23 up 2.7% year-to-date and broadly in line with our EUR120/share estimate. Portfolio evolution in H1 reflected: 1) a slight decline in listed assets including the sale of the stake in Mowi, Holcim and partially in Pernod Ricard; 2) a decline in private portfolio companies entirely driven WebHelp due to peers de-rating on investors'' concerns over AI; 3) an uplift at GBL Capital driven by funds and co-investments. Cash earnings tracking well - extension of share buyback programme Cash earnings came in at EUR388m in H1 23, broadly stable YoY, as a +25% increase in dividends from participations (notably thanks to Imerys special dividend) was offset by lower distribution from GBL Capital funds. During the first half, the group acquired EUR279m of its own shares and cancelled c.6.3m. Management announced an extension of its ongoing EUR500m share buyback programme for an additional EUR130m. TP adjusted for portfolio fair value - Outperform maintained The shares trade at a c40% discount to spot NAV. The discount may be slightly higher when factoring in the revaluation of healthcare related assets (currently at purchase price in the portfolio and to be marked-to-market in November). We have adjusted our TP from EUR93 to EUR91 (still based on a 25% discount to NAV in line with history) to take into account changes in fair value of private assets and a reduced share count. We maintain our Outperform rating.
GBL's H1 NAV down 2% but NAV p/s up 3% thanks to cancellation of shares to EUR 119.3 (DPe EUR 122)Dividend guided to be stable again at EUR 2.75We estimate today's NAV to be EUR 119.5 p/s, implying a discount of 38.4%. Although elevated and despite continued strong performance from Affidea and Sanoptis, we see little catalysts for a rerating in the short termOur TP goes to EUR 89 (vs. EUR 91 before). Hold reiterated
Updating forecasts and valuation We now update our forecasts and NAV following the Q1 23 print in early May. We incorporate the last twelve month''s moves in the portfolio and notably the sizable private deals in Healthcare (Affidea, Sanoptis), the full Mowi exit, mark-to-market of the listed portfolio and group''s share buy-back over the period. We derive a spot net asset value of EUR124. Target price down to EUR93 (from EUR103) - Outperform maintained We have reduced our target price from EUR103 to EUR93 to reflect the moves in the listed portfolio. Our methodology is unchanged, i.e., we apply a target discount of 25% to our NAV estimate in line with the historical average. We leave our rating unchanged on the back of 1) potential for hidden value in private assets now accounting for 34% of the portfolio (vs. 25% at the same period last year); 2) further capital deployment into private assets.
GBL saw a good start to the year, with a 5% NAV per share progression joined by a welcome modest 40bp narrowing of the — still above the long-term average — discount. FY23 is shaping up well for the holding company as it begins the integration of its third-party asset management business, should benefit from the creation of a global leader in customer experience through the Webhelp/Concentrix deal, and gets its portfolio rotation underway.
GBL delivered a positive first quarter with an increase in its NAV driven by its listed and alternative assets as well as progress on the integration of its third-party management activity. On the non-listed side, GBL should benefit from the agreement between Webhelp and Concentrix. Coupled with a solid operational performance, the beginning of the year is shaping up well for GBL.
NAV of EUR 123 p/s, up 5% YTD (FY22: EUR 116) was bang in line with our estimatePrivate Assets performed well with sales +16% and GBL Capital witnessed a 5% jump in value. The remaining stake in Mowi (1.9%) was sold. Together with some topping off of its Pernod Ricard stake, LTV dropped to 10.0% (-0.9%)We estimate today's NAV at EUR 123.6 p/s, implying a 35% discount. This remains elevated vs. the long-term average (~27%) and our 30% target discount. Our TP goes slightly up to EUR 91 p/s. As this provides ~13% upside, compared to ~15% in our investment
Following its entrance in Webhelp in 2019, GBL now exits by divesting to Concentrix and creating a global leader in CXThe EV of USD 4.8bn and taking into account Webhelp's debt level, implies an equity value of EUR 1.5bn for GBL's 62% stake, slightly below its latest NAVGBL realizes a nice exit and becomes shareholder of a global leader - Hold
Although GBL ended the year on a high note with a 3% qoq increase in its NAV to €116 per share, this had nevertheless declined by 19% over the year. GBL’s paradigm shift from a long-term investor with high-quality liquid assets to a more unlisted player with a high-growth investment profile in an economic environment that is clearly unfavourable to unlisted assets puzzles us. The year has, however, demonstrated the ability of the Belgian HoldCo to deliver on its strategic objectives.
FY22 NAV came in at EUR 116.2 p/s, down 19% YoY (FY21: EUR 143.9 p/s) but roughly in line with our estimate of EUR 123 p/sAdditional transparency on recently acquired private assets showed significant top-line growth and ability to pass on cost inflationProposed stable dividend of EUR 2.75 p/sWe estimate today's NAV to be EUR 123.9 p/s, implying a discount of 35.6%. This remains significantly above the long-term average of 25%. TP goes up to EUR 90 p/s (EUR 86 before). Hold reiterated.
GBL’s Q3 results were once again overwhelmed by the difficult macro-economic environment marked by drastic currency swings, soaring inflation and rapidly rising interest rates. Not surprisingly, NAV fell again, losing 3.6% this quarter, i.e. a 20% ytd collapse to €17.2bn (€112.4 per share). The ytd decline was driven by both a drop in the Belgian HoldCo’s listed assets and its third-party management business, Sienna. The only positive point in the picture is that the discount to NAV is growing slightly.
GBL posted half-year results in line with the Q1, i.e. submerged by the challenging macroeconomic environment. Yoy, the NAV of the group collapsed by 19% (-14% qoq) following the weak performances from its listed assets and Sienna Investment Managers. Moreover, the discount to NAV is closing. Long story short, there results are unlikely to enthuse investors.
Although the Q1 NAV performance was mitigated (-5% vs December 2021, +4% yoy) driven by the decline in the share prices of listed investments, GBL keeps making strong progress on its portfolio strategy towards higher-growth assets with major acquisitions in the health care sector and third-party asset management with two acquisitions. With a strong liquidity position and a relatively low net debt position, the Holdco is in solid standing to face the current macro-economic and geopolitical uncertainties.
The NAV development seen in 2021 confirms the strategic shift presented by GBL in its November 2021 CMD; the HoldCo is well on its way to reaching a 40% exposure to private assets in the mid-to-long-term as set out in its new strategic plan. However, the ripple effects of the Ukraine-Russia conflict on the global economy may pose a larger threat to the financial performance of the company’s holdings and, hence, on future NAV progression.
GBL’s Investors Day was the occasion for the company to unveil the next phase in its strategic shift towards private assets. Through Sienna, GBL takes a pivotal step to develop its own asset management business. The mid-term ambitions point to a growing exposure to higher growth (often unlisted) names, while maintaining GBL’s long-term oriented, engaged ownership DNA.
Although the NAV saw a slight decline over the quarter, GBL is making strong progress on its portfolio strategy, moving towards higher-growth (and unlisted) assets, and adding a new third-party asset management dimension through Sienna’s recent acquisition. Through higher cash earnings guaranteeing higher dividend pay-outs in addition to the cancellation of half of its treasury share stock, GBL is pulling all the right levers to enhance shareholder returns.
GBL saw a good start to the year, with a modest NAV progression joined by a welcome narrowing of the — still above long-term average — discount. Most importantly though, after a tame FY20 in terms of investments due to the COVID-19 crisis, GBL is coming back strongly to its asset rotation efforts with €1.4bn already shifted in Q1. With a buoyant war-chest and additional disposals incoming, FY21 is set to be a busy year as GBL reinforces its growth-oriented ambitions.
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