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We publish our new Ageas IFRS 17 model and reaffirm our BUY recommendation. Transitioning from the previous accounting standards to the new IFRS 17 framework is expected to drive up the projected profits. Ageas maintains a strong presence in the Asian market, with several JVs. These Asian investments collectively contribute a substantial proportion, approximately 45%, of the company’s operating profit. We expect this contribution to continue to grow, driven by the different growth dynamics in A
Companies: Ageas (AGS:EBR)ageas SA/NV (AGS:BRU)
AlphaValue
Ageas’ results were mostly driven by the volatile Chinese business and a strong Non-Life segment. Nevertheless, in China, we noted the absence of a dividend remitted in H1 23, a delay that has affected several Chinese state-owned enterprises. It is important to be aware that the annual cash dividend for the year is unlikely to be affected, as these dividends are scheduled for H2. But this delay serves as a reminder that careful evaluation is necessary when valuing the Chinese segment.
Ageas released a surprising set of Q3 22 results in our view. Although it was negatively impacted by market turmoil in Asia and high inflation in the UK and Turkey, Ageas had warned about these effects a few days ago. Embedding these factors into the consensus (which had been published before the warning), Ageas would have beat estimates.
Ageas released a very strong set of Q2 results. Carried by Belgium and Asia, the firm beat market expectations. On a HY basis, Ageas remains in line with our expectations. Prospects for additional share buybacks have been tempered but we expect a dividend towards the high-end of the guidance.
Ageas’ Q1 22 results yielded mixed feelings. On the one hand, P&C has been surprisingly good but could revert to lower levels, we believe. On the other hand, Asia has been disappointing and could remain disappointing for quite some time considering the local context. Solvency improved and the trend could offer perspectives of shareholder rewards.
Ageas’ Q3 results have been surprisingly strong, beating by far consensus estimates. However, the deteriorating solvency ratio coupled with guidance left unchanged, while the insurer could have shown more optimism over the year-end result, leaves a glimpse of potential worries.
Ageas’ H1 21 results are not what we would have expected. Asia’s Life business came in disappointing and Non-life is expected to be heavily impacted in the next quarter. But, overall, the outlook remains the same and the €150m share buy-back will cheer investors up. Tough times to go through but we remain positive in the medium term.
Ageas’ performance for the first quarter of the year is very positive. We believe the worst turmoils to be past (Turkey FX impact, COVID-19 claims and high volatility on the markets) and, coupled with the recovery in economies and strong capital generation, we see the rest of 2021 as looking better than expected.
Ageas released net profit at €1,141m. The Non-Life business contributed significantly to this performance (up 49% to €391m), while the Life divisions suffered and posted a 32% drop to €569m. We appreciate the resilient top line and the €2.65 to be distributed per share. Ageas also announced the acquisition of a 40% stake in the Turkish Life insurance and pensions company AvivaSA for €142m. The insurer enters a new market, with rapid growth and without problems of low interest rates.
Despite the pandemic, Ageas was very active during 2020 to reinforce its positions in existing markets and to clean its balance sheet. There are no fears about the capacity of the insurer to generate cash and to distribute a dividend for 2020 earnings.
Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on Ageas. We currently have 34 research reports from 3 professional analysts.
Proposed share-for-share merger with Northgate
Companies: Redde Northgate PLC
Arden Partners
Lowland Investment Company’s (LWI’s) unconstrained, multi-cap investment policy differentiates it from most peers in the AIC UK Equity Income sector. It offers investors broad market exposure, outside of the large, traditional ‘income stocks’ at a 13% discount to NAV. The underperformance of small- and mid-cap companies versus larger peers has slowed and a turnaround would be very positive for LWI. Portfolio returns are already benefiting from acquisition activity, spurred by low valuations, and
Companies: Lowland Investment Co PLC
Edison
Foxtons Group plc first quarter revenue rose 9% to £35.7m (1Q23: £32.9m) with growth delivered across all business segments. Trading is in line with management's expectations.
Companies: Foxtons Group Plc
Zeus Capital
PCI Pal’s FY23 results show revenue growth of +25% to £14.9m, gross profit growth of +31% to £13.1m at a margin of 88%, and an outlook confirming robust momentum in H1 24. The FY23 results are as expected following the August trading update, and FY23 Total Annual Contract Value (TACV) is +23% yoy to £16.4m, with ARR +14% yoy to £12.6m due to £3.1m of contracts in deployment. We expect ARR will increase +35% and +31% to £17.0m and £22.2m in FY24 and FY25, as management lands and expands following
Companies: PCI-PAL PLC
Cavendish
Foresight Solar Fund (FSFL) celebrated its 10-year anniversary of listing on the London Stock Exchange with decade-high cash distributions from assets of £120.4m in its FY23 results (year end 31 December). FY23 also saw FSFL’s divestment programme come to fruition with the sale of a 50% stake in its Spanish Lorca portfolio at a 21% premium to its holding value. The proceeds of this divestment, along with free cash, were used to pay down the fund’s variable rate debt via its revolving credit faci
Companies: Foresight Solar Fund Limited GBP
Tetragon Financial Group (Tetragon) posted a 6.4% net asset value (NAV) per share total return (TR) in US dollar terms in FY23. Tetragon’s returns normally have a low correlation with broader markets, and therefore its FY23 performance was below the 26.3% return of the S&P 500 Index, which rallied on the artificial intelligence (AI) theme. Tetragon’s FY23 return on equity (RoE) of 5.5% was below its target of 10–15% pa. That said, its performance since listing was within the target range at 11.3
Companies: Tetragon Financial Group Limited
Vp’s full year update highlights sector-leading results, once again benefiting from the diversity of its end markets and the quality of its specialist businesses. With results expected to be broadly in line with expectations, we trim our FY24 PBT forecast by c.5% to £39.0m, a shade below the FY23 outturn (£40.2m). We consider this an impressively resilient performance set against a mixed market backdrop. Under new leadership, a strategic refresh is underway and management is confident in long
Companies: Vp plc
Equity Development
On 9 January last year, we set out our ten top stock picks for 2023, for what turned out to be another relatively poor twelve months for UK equities due to two wars, stubbornly high inflation and further tightening of monetary policy. This was even as other major markets, such as the US, largely recovered in the year. In the 2023 calendar year, the AIM All-Share index fell 8.2% and is still 42% off its 2021 high. From the release of our 2023 top picks note, the average total return (assuming div
Companies: PTAL GHH IGP MSLH PINE NXQ EQLS NXR AXL
Vector Capital is an established commercial lending group, focused on secured short-term and bridging loans in the property sector. This morning, the group has reported full year results to 31 December 2023, illustrating the challenging market backdrop. While underlying trading was robust, with good demand being seen for new loans, provisions for bad debts relating to historical loans of £728k in the year led to a decrease in PBT to £2.1m (WHI est. £2.4m, FY22 £2.8m). Looking ahead, although VCA
Companies: Vector Capital PLC
WHIreland
Companies: Equals Group Plc
Canaccord Genuity
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