Research, Charts & Company Announcements
Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on UCB SA. We currently have 5 research reports from 1 professional analysts.
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No major surprises in Q3
01 Nov 16
UCB reported a strong performance in its Q3 16 trading update (only top-line numbers). Sales were up by 12% yoy to €1.1bn (ahead of consensus), the outperformance primarily coming from Keppra, while CVN also performed fairly well (combined growth of 16%). Management confirmed full year guidance at the upper end of the range – revenue: €4-4.1bn, recurring EBITDA: €970-1,010m and core EPS of €2.9-3.2).
Strong H1; H2 read-across critical
11 Aug 16
UCB reported a strong set of H1 16 numbers. NB All sales growth numbers in CER unless mentioned otherwise. Net sales were up 9% to €1.9bn, primarily driven by the CVN portfolio – Cimzia (+24%), Vimpat (+18%) and Neupro (+12%), pulled down to some extent by off-patent drug Keppra (-7%). The declining royalty income (-38%) and other revenue (-27%) meant a moderate growth in total revenue at 5% to €2bn (Q2 16 revenue increased just 1% in reported terms). Profitability came in strongly with recurring EBITDA increasing 18% to €549m (margin improved c.3ppt to c.27.2%), mainly on account of the positive product mix, and the lower R&D and G&A expenses. Management has confirmed its FY 16 guidance: revenue of €4-4.1bn, recurring EBITDA of €970-1,010m and core EPS of €2.9-3.2.
Strong start to the year
06 May 16
In its Q1 16 trading update, UCB reported a robust revenue growth of 9% yoy at CER (11% reported) to €991m (higher than the consensus estimate), driven by the strong performance of the CVN trio (Cimzia, Vimpat and Neupro), offset to some extent by Keppra. The company does not report profitability numbers in the quarterly results. Management reiterated its FY 16 guidance: revenue of €4-4.1bn, recurring EBITDA of €970-1,010m and core EPS of €2.9-3.2.
Solid FY 16 guidance amid uncertainty on Romosozumab
15 Apr 16
UCB ended FY 15 on a strong note and gave a robust guidance for FY 16. Q4 15 revenue was up 7% yoy to €1bn, while FY 15 revenue increased 16% (+9% at CER) to €3.9bn, against our estimate of €3.8bn, primarily driven by the core CVN portfolio. The beat was mainly on account of higher-than-expected royalties and other revenue (contract manufacturing, partnerships etc.). For the full year, the recurring EBITDA came in at €821m (+18% at CER; +35% in euros; margin improved c.3ppts), vs. our estimate of €805m, led by an improved product mix, lower-than-expected R&D, and general and administrative expenses as well as a positive forex impact. Net profit attributable to shareholders, however, came in below our expectations at €623m, mainly due to a lower-than-expected gain recognised on the divestments of Kremers Urban and established brands in India. The company proposed a dividend of €1.1 per share for FY 15 (up from €1.06 in FY 14). For FY 16, management sees revenue of €4-4.1bn, recurring EBITDA of €970-1,010m and core EPS of €2.9-3.2.
UCB fuelled by CVN success and pipeline promise
18 Dec 15
The last quarter has been an eventful one for UCB, with several positive triggers (following the phase III failure of its Lupus drug, Epratuzumab) – both on the operating as well as the pipeline front – driving the improved momentum and outlook for the company. From the encouraging read-out from its osteoporosis drug Romosozumab to the positive CHMP recommendation for its pipeline epilepsy drug, Brivaracetam, and the successful divestiture of Kremers Urban to US-based Lannett Inc. (for $1.23bn), there have been several positive developments, which augur well for near-to-mid-term delivery prospects. Better-than-anticipated reception to the core CVN (Cimzia, Vimpat, Neupro) portfolio and a series of successful label extensions, embellish the future growth potential further. The trend has been echoed in the company’s Q3 trading performance, which came in ahead of consensus estimates. Revenue increased c.17% yoy to €947m driven by across-the-board growth and the strong performance of the CVN portfolio. The off-patent drug Keppra remained surprisingly strong, reporting a 9% growth, driven by supply shortages in the US and strong uptake in the Japanese market. 9M revenue growth was c.19% (12% CER). Given the solid performance, management has made a second successive upgrade to its FY 15 guidance – Revenue now expected to be c.€3.75bn (earlier €3.65-3.75bn), EBITDA – c.€800m (earlier c.€740m), EPS – €2.0-2.1 (earlier €1.9-2.05).
N+1 Singer - Small-cap quantitative research - Momentum screen refresh + 10 focus stocks
12 Jan 17
We have refreshed our momentum style screen for the first time since inception on 26 July 2016. As before, the screen selects the 25 stocks exhibiting the most extreme momentum characteristics, according to our measurement method. From these we have selected 10 to focus on. Since inception the screen has underperformed both the main small-cap and micro-cap indices against a background of generally rising momentum. We have noted a subset of the basket, where decelerating momentum at the time of measurement appears correlated with significant share price falls since selection. We shall monitor this factor with the new screen, albeit there are only two such stocks showing this pattern, namely Lamprell (not rated) and Gear4music (not rated).
N+1 Singer - Morning Song 12-01-2017
12 Jan 17
As anticipated, the second half has again been stronger than H1 and results will be broadly in line with expectations. In line with this, the order book has continued to grow and is at record levels. This confirms that significant progress has been made in the Group’s shift towards its Technology Products division which, as targeted, contributed c.60% of group revenue in FY16. The small acquisition of Cable Power also gives a complementary boost to the product range. It is also worth noting the significant reduction in net debt, £1.0m ahead of our forecast. We remain supportive of the Group’s strategy and continue to see a bright future as this transition towards a design led technology solutions business continues. We look forward to more detail in March at the final results.
N+1 Singer - Best Ideas 2017 - Top picks
04 Jan 17
Today we publish our Best Ideas for 2017 - 12 stocks that we believe have excellent prospects in the current year together with a detailed discussion of what we see as the key sector and market themes for 2017. Our top picks are Cineworld, Elementis, Herald Investment Trust, Hill & Smith, IQE, MySale, Redde, ReNeuron, RhythmOne, SDL, Servelec and Severfield.
The Monthly January 2017
09 Jan 17
Despite all the hullaballoo of the Brexit vote and the subsequent election of Donald Trump as the next US President, the UK stock market prospered last year, especially in the latter few months of 2016. The combination of a depreciating currency – making $ earnings more valuable in relative terms - and the Trump emphasis on infrastructure expenditure drove the stock market higher
Small Cap Breakfast
17 Jan 17
Global Energy Development (GED.L) — To be renamed Nautilus Marine Services. Schedule 1 from developer and seller of hydrocarbons and related products. Reverse takeover. Raising $10.5m via a convertible. Expected 9 Feb. Eco (Atlantic) Oil & Gas—TSX-V listed oil and gas exploration has announced its intention to float on AIM. Assets in Guyana and Namibia. Proposed £2m-£3m fundraise. Diversified Gas & Oil—According to LSE website first day of trading on AIM now expected for 30 January.
N+1 Singer - Morning Song 16-01-2017
16 Jan 17
As the birthplace of Stephenson, Armstrong and Swan, the North East of England has a proud history of industrial and technological innovation. Despite local economic challenges, the region’s industrial heritage lives on through continuing success in high end engineering and technology. The recent takeovers of private equity backed SMD (subsea robotics) and Nomad Digital (wi-fi on the railways) are testament to this. The North East has also emerged as a leader in genetics and genomics with an enviable life sciences and healthcare infrastructure. Against this backdrop, we expect the region to continue to throw up attractive IPO candidates to build on the six new listings in the past three years. We expect 2017 to be far kinder to the existing portfolio of North East plcs than 2016 (a year to forget) with recent management changes one important theme for the new year. Our top picks are Hargreaves Services, Quantum Pharma and Zytronic (all N+1 Singer Corporate clients) and we are Buyers of Northgate and Grainger.