Research, Charts & Company Announcements
Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on UCB SA. We currently have 6 research reports from 1 professional analysts.
Frequency of research reports
Research reports on
Strong FY 16 results; crucial events ahead
03 Mar 17
UCB reported strong FY 16 numbers, with both top-line and bottom-line coming in slightly above our expectations. Revenue was up 8% yoy to €4.2bn (vs. our estimate of €4.1bn), mainly driven by the core CVN portfolio – Cimzia (+21%), Vimpat (+20%) and Neupro (+17%). Recurring EBITDA increased 26% to €1bn (the margin improved c.3.5ppt to c.25%), primarily on account of the positive product mix, and lower R&D (end of late stage trials of Romosozumab/Evenity) and G&A expenses. Core EPS came in at €3.19 compared with €2.17 in FY 15. The company announced a dividend of €1.15 per share (+4.5%). For FY 17, management gave a healthy guidance of revenue of €4.25-4.35bn, recurring EBITDA of €1.15-1.2bn and core EPS of €3.7-4. The revenue guidance includes a negative impact of c.4ppt from the divestments completed in 2016 (nitrate business and Venlafaxine ER) along with an adverse impact of 1-2ppt from the implementation of IFRS 15, which will necessitate the moving of some expenses from marketing to reduction in sales.
No major surprises in Q3
01 Nov 16
UCB reported a strong performance in its Q3 16 trading update (only top-line numbers). Sales were up by 12% yoy to €1.1bn (ahead of consensus), the outperformance primarily coming from Keppra, while CVN also performed fairly well (combined growth of 16%). Management confirmed full year guidance at the upper end of the range – revenue: €4-4.1bn, recurring EBITDA: €970-1,010m and core EPS of €2.9-3.2).
Strong H1; H2 read-across critical
11 Aug 16
UCB reported a strong set of H1 16 numbers. NB All sales growth numbers in CER unless mentioned otherwise. Net sales were up 9% to €1.9bn, primarily driven by the CVN portfolio – Cimzia (+24%), Vimpat (+18%) and Neupro (+12%), pulled down to some extent by off-patent drug Keppra (-7%). The declining royalty income (-38%) and other revenue (-27%) meant a moderate growth in total revenue at 5% to €2bn (Q2 16 revenue increased just 1% in reported terms). Profitability came in strongly with recurring EBITDA increasing 18% to €549m (margin improved c.3ppt to c.27.2%), mainly on account of the positive product mix, and the lower R&D and G&A expenses. Management has confirmed its FY 16 guidance: revenue of €4-4.1bn, recurring EBITDA of €970-1,010m and core EPS of €2.9-3.2.
Strong start to the year
06 May 16
In its Q1 16 trading update, UCB reported a robust revenue growth of 9% yoy at CER (11% reported) to €991m (higher than the consensus estimate), driven by the strong performance of the CVN trio (Cimzia, Vimpat and Neupro), offset to some extent by Keppra. The company does not report profitability numbers in the quarterly results. Management reiterated its FY 16 guidance: revenue of €4-4.1bn, recurring EBITDA of €970-1,010m and core EPS of €2.9-3.2.
Solid FY 16 guidance amid uncertainty on Romosozumab
15 Apr 16
UCB ended FY 15 on a strong note and gave a robust guidance for FY 16. Q4 15 revenue was up 7% yoy to €1bn, while FY 15 revenue increased 16% (+9% at CER) to €3.9bn, against our estimate of €3.8bn, primarily driven by the core CVN portfolio. The beat was mainly on account of higher-than-expected royalties and other revenue (contract manufacturing, partnerships etc.). For the full year, the recurring EBITDA came in at €821m (+18% at CER; +35% in euros; margin improved c.3ppts), vs. our estimate of €805m, led by an improved product mix, lower-than-expected R&D, and general and administrative expenses as well as a positive forex impact. Net profit attributable to shareholders, however, came in below our expectations at €623m, mainly due to a lower-than-expected gain recognised on the divestments of Kremers Urban and established brands in India. The company proposed a dividend of €1.1 per share for FY 15 (up from €1.06 in FY 14). For FY 16, management sees revenue of €4-4.1bn, recurring EBITDA of €970-1,010m and core EPS of €2.9-3.2.
UCB fuelled by CVN success and pipeline promise
18 Dec 15
The last quarter has been an eventful one for UCB, with several positive triggers (following the phase III failure of its Lupus drug, Epratuzumab) – both on the operating as well as the pipeline front – driving the improved momentum and outlook for the company. From the encouraging read-out from its osteoporosis drug Romosozumab to the positive CHMP recommendation for its pipeline epilepsy drug, Brivaracetam, and the successful divestiture of Kremers Urban to US-based Lannett Inc. (for $1.23bn), there have been several positive developments, which augur well for near-to-mid-term delivery prospects. Better-than-anticipated reception to the core CVN (Cimzia, Vimpat, Neupro) portfolio and a series of successful label extensions, embellish the future growth potential further.
20 Apr 17
Although the last two months have seen a broadly neutral performance from the UK healthcare sector compared to a significantly more volatile 6 months prior, we continue to expect macro-events and increased geo-political risk to result in an overall neutral performance from the sector over the next period. However, company specific news is likely to drive a strong outperformance from selected mid-market companies. We retain our neutral sector stance whilst highlighting those we expect to outperform.
Positive top-line results in first iclaprim phase III clinical trial (REVIVE-1)
18 Apr 17
Motif Bio (LSE: MTFB, NASDAQ: MTFB), a late clinical stage antibiotic development company, announced positive results this morning in the first of its two iclaprim phase III clinical trials, REVIVE-1, comparing iclaprim to vancomycin in the treatment of acute bacterial skin and skin structure infections (ABSSSI). Iclaprim, a next-generation antibiotic targeting an underutilised mechanism of action which causes rapid killing of bacteria, is being developed for the treatment of serious and life threatening bacterial infections. On the key primary endpoint in the study, early clinical response at 48-72 hours after drug treatment began, 80.9% of patients on iclaprim achieved a positive response compared to 81.0% of patients on vancomycin, well within the 10% non-inferiority margin required by the FDA. Iclaprim was also shown to be safe and well-tolerated compared to vancomycin. With these positive results from REVIVE-1 we have increased the probability of success for the iclaprim development program from 65% to 75% raising our risk-adjusted NPV for Motif Bio to almost £240m or 122p per share (previously £210m and 107p per share).
N+1 Singer - Small-cap quantitative research - Growth style screen revamp and 10 focus stocks
06 Apr 17
We have reviewed the performance of our consistent growth screen since the previous refresh on 27 September 2016 and revamped the selection parameters to focus more on forecast sales and EPS growth going forward. In the period under review the consistent growth style screen outperformed the small-cap benchmark by c. 6% and underperformed the microcap index by a similar amount. Interestingly, although growth doesn’t always seem to be defensive as might be expected, however it appears right to buy growth on dips caused by or coincident with wider market volatility. In the new forecast growth screen we take a close look at 10 focus stocks. We will monitor performance and refresh it in three to four months time.
N+1 Singer - Sinclair Pharma - EBITDA upgrade for 2017, but lower TP due to warranty claim and costs
19 Apr 17
We have updated product-level forecasts and included the £10m SVB debt facility and £5m warranty claim settlement with Alliance Pharma in our forecasts. The 6.3% upgrade to our FY2017 sales estimate (from £46.0m to £48.9m) brings expected EBITDA profitability forward by one year (to FY2017 from FY2018). We remain positive on the ongoing rollout of Silhouette Instalift® in particular and retain our Buy recommendation. However, higher expected sales & marketing costs and the warranty claim weigh on our valuation: we downgrade our target price from 42p to 37p.
Positive REVIVE-1 Phase III study data
18 Apr 17
Motif Bio (MTFB) has announced positive top-line results from REVIVE-1, its global Phase III study comparing iclaprim to vancomycin in patients with acute bacterial skin and skin structure infections (ABSSSI). Iclaprim achieved the primary endpoint of non inferiority when compared to vancomycin, in both the early time point and test of cure endpoint. Iclaprim offers clinical advantages over existing hospital antibiotics that include the avoidance of renal toxicity, fixed dosage regimen and early response indications. With data from REVIVE-2 due out in H2 2017 we maintain our 125p price target and Buy recommendation.