Research, Charts & Company Announcements
Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on UCB SA. We currently have 5 research reports from 1 professional analysts.
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No major surprises in Q3
01 Nov 16
UCB reported a strong performance in its Q3 16 trading update (only top-line numbers). Sales were up by 12% yoy to €1.1bn (ahead of consensus), the outperformance primarily coming from Keppra, while CVN also performed fairly well (combined growth of 16%). Management confirmed full year guidance at the upper end of the range – revenue: €4-4.1bn, recurring EBITDA: €970-1,010m and core EPS of €2.9-3.2).
Strong H1; H2 read-across critical
11 Aug 16
UCB reported a strong set of H1 16 numbers. NB All sales growth numbers in CER unless mentioned otherwise. Net sales were up 9% to €1.9bn, primarily driven by the CVN portfolio – Cimzia (+24%), Vimpat (+18%) and Neupro (+12%), pulled down to some extent by off-patent drug Keppra (-7%). The declining royalty income (-38%) and other revenue (-27%) meant a moderate growth in total revenue at 5% to €2bn (Q2 16 revenue increased just 1% in reported terms). Profitability came in strongly with recurring EBITDA increasing 18% to €549m (margin improved c.3ppt to c.27.2%), mainly on account of the positive product mix, and the lower R&D and G&A expenses. Management has confirmed its FY 16 guidance: revenue of €4-4.1bn, recurring EBITDA of €970-1,010m and core EPS of €2.9-3.2.
Strong start to the year
06 May 16
In its Q1 16 trading update, UCB reported a robust revenue growth of 9% yoy at CER (11% reported) to €991m (higher than the consensus estimate), driven by the strong performance of the CVN trio (Cimzia, Vimpat and Neupro), offset to some extent by Keppra. The company does not report profitability numbers in the quarterly results. Management reiterated its FY 16 guidance: revenue of €4-4.1bn, recurring EBITDA of €970-1,010m and core EPS of €2.9-3.2.
Solid FY 16 guidance amid uncertainty on Romosozumab
15 Apr 16
UCB ended FY 15 on a strong note and gave a robust guidance for FY 16. Q4 15 revenue was up 7% yoy to €1bn, while FY 15 revenue increased 16% (+9% at CER) to €3.9bn, against our estimate of €3.8bn, primarily driven by the core CVN portfolio. The beat was mainly on account of higher-than-expected royalties and other revenue (contract manufacturing, partnerships etc.). For the full year, the recurring EBITDA came in at €821m (+18% at CER; +35% in euros; margin improved c.3ppts), vs. our estimate of €805m, led by an improved product mix, lower-than-expected R&D, and general and administrative expenses as well as a positive forex impact. Net profit attributable to shareholders, however, came in below our expectations at €623m, mainly due to a lower-than-expected gain recognised on the divestments of Kremers Urban and established brands in India. The company proposed a dividend of €1.1 per share for FY 15 (up from €1.06 in FY 14). For FY 16, management sees revenue of €4-4.1bn, recurring EBITDA of €970-1,010m and core EPS of €2.9-3.2.
UCB fuelled by CVN success and pipeline promise
18 Dec 15
The last quarter has been an eventful one for UCB, with several positive triggers (following the phase III failure of its Lupus drug, Epratuzumab) – both on the operating as well as the pipeline front – driving the improved momentum and outlook for the company. From the encouraging read-out from its osteoporosis drug Romosozumab to the positive CHMP recommendation for its pipeline epilepsy drug, Brivaracetam, and the successful divestiture of Kremers Urban to US-based Lannett Inc. (for $1.23bn), there have been several positive developments, which augur well for near-to-mid-term delivery prospects. Better-than-anticipated reception to the core CVN (Cimzia, Vimpat, Neupro) portfolio and a series of successful label extensions, embellish the future growth potential further. The trend has been echoed in the company’s Q3 trading performance, which came in ahead of consensus estimates. Revenue increased c.17% yoy to €947m driven by across-the-board growth and the strong performance of the CVN portfolio. The off-patent drug Keppra remained surprisingly strong, reporting a 9% growth, driven by supply shortages in the US and strong uptake in the Japanese market. 9M revenue growth was c.19% (12% CER). Given the solid performance, management has made a second successive upgrade to its FY 15 guidance – Revenue now expected to be c.€3.75bn (earlier €3.65-3.75bn), EBITDA – c.€800m (earlier c.€740m), EPS – €2.0-2.1 (earlier €1.9-2.05).
08 Dec 16
Elderstreet stake acquired 02 GENERAL NEWS Globalworth premium In this issue Venture capital firm Draper Esprit has taken a 30.8% stake in venture capital trust manager Elderstreet. Both investment managers focus on the technology sector and they will be able to co-invest. Elderstreet has investments in a number of AIM-quoted companies through its VCTs. The purchase was funded by an issue of Draper Esprit shares worth just over £250,000. Simon Cook, the chief executive of Draper Esprit, is a former partner at Elderstreet so he knows the business and the people who run it, although he did leave more than 14 years ago. Cook has previously acquired portfolios from 3i and Cazenove, two other firms where he has worked. Draper Esprit has an option to acquire the remaining shares in Elderstreet, which has more than £25m under management. Adding Elderstreet to the group enables Draper Esprit to offer investors a range of EIS funds, VCTs and an ISA qualifying listed evergreen patient capital fund. The enlarged group has venture capital assets under management of more than £350m. At the end of September 2016, Draper Esprit had a net asset value of 352p a share, which is similar to the current share price. The June 2016 flotation price was 300p a share. Draper Esprit is quoted on Ireland’s Enterprise Securities Market as well as AIM.
N+1 Singer - Morning Song 05-12-2016
05 Dec 16
RTHM is acquiring a profitable Canadian listed mobile specialist for equivalent of US$42.5m consideration in shares (88.235m). This helps adds to two growth vectors RTHM is targeting; (i) adds unique exclusive audience (10m unique) and (ii) Exclusive demand Yahoo and Facebook. The business has 15 premium and owned and operated apps which provide users with rewards for activity. The business is expected to deliver c$9m of EBITDA in FY18 including $2m of cost synergies. This equates to just 4.7x EV/EBITDA. This marks what we see the first step in RTHM activity to scale the business and deliver on margin potential (see our initiation notes). Our initial estimates for EPS revisions are very significant - for FY18 are 2.3 cents (currently 0.6) and for FY19 4.3 (currently 2.5). There is a call at 830 for investors and we will revise post this.
Exponential growth now in sight
07 Dec 16
The best things in life are worth waiting for, or at least that seems to be the case with Kromek, a pioneering radiation detection expert. Since listing on AIM at 51p back in October 2013, the company has not only been busily refining and field testing its next generation CZT (cadmium zinc telluride) technology, but importantly also securing a raft of new orders.
N+1 Singer - Morning Song 09-12-2016
09 Dec 16
This morning’s AGM Statement confirms that trading in the first four months of the year to 31st October was in line with expectations. Revenue was slightly above the prior year period and cash collection has remained strong. The Group has reiterated its commitment to maintaining a progressive dividend policy. The statement is encouraging and we therefore leave our forecasts unchanged. We note the attractions of a 5% dividend yield and consider the shares inexpensive at 4.5x FY’17 EV/EBITDA.
Small Cap Breakfast
07 Dec 16
Creo Medical group—Schedule 1 update.. £20m raise. Expected market cap £61.2m, admission expected 9 December. ECSC—Schedule 1 from provider of cyber security services. Raising £5m. Vendor sale £0.8m. Target date 14 Dec. Expected market cap £15m. RM Secured Direct Lending - The secured direct lending fund intends to float on the Main Market on 15 December raising up to £100m
N+1 Singer - Morning Song 06-12-2016
06 Dec 16
With FY16 volume and revenue already disclosed in the pre-close, the focus in today’s prelims is on PBT (£100.3m versus our £101m) and EPS (96.8p versus our 95.4p). No special dividend triggered this year (none forecast) and DPS is held at 46.8p (N1SE: 48.0p). On end markets, recent commentary is reiterated – the core business is growing, whilst consumer electronics will be subdued in the current year (competitive capacity from Solvay). On currency, there will be a material benefit in the current year (a little more than the £14m to £15m previously indicated), and a further tailwind next year if current rates are maintained (quantum TBC). There is also an investment of £10m today in a minority interest in Magma Global, Victrex’ oil and gas mega programme partner. Although the share price is now close to our TP of 1730p, we feel that there is enough in today’s announcement to retain a positive stance on medium term opportunities with strong cashflow and a special dividend potentially to look forward to in the current year.