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The Q2 was slightly better than expected. We expect Proximus to see modest sales and Ebitda growth in the coming years.
However Proximus has been lagging behind its peers on fibre deployment and needs to invest. The group is not yet out of the woods in terms of its EBITDA less capex and is unlikely to increase its dividends any time soon.
The group is trading at a significant discount and we maintain our Buy opinion despite seeing no catalyst in the short term.
Companies: Proximus SA de droit public (PROX:BRU)Proximus SA de droit public (0DPU:LON)
Like in the previous quarter, the Q4 EBITDA was disappointing, down by 4.7% yoy and lfl. The good point is, however, that Proximus expects its Domestic revenue and EBITDA to grow up to 1% yoy in 2022.
In line with its accelerated fibre deployment, Proximus’ capex should grow by 8% in 2022 to exceed 20% of its sales. Well, the group has not yet left the inn and is unlikely to increase its dividends any time soon. We remain, however, at Buy.
Domestic revenue was slightly disappointing, down by 2.1% yoy and lfl. Consumer revenue was indeed down by 1.6% due to the ongoing trend of Consumers opting increasingly for a product combination excluding a Fixed Voice line.
We remain at Buy on the stock which remains heavily discounted vs its peers but Proximus is lagging behind in the deployment of fibre compared to its peers and has to invest. So no catalyst in the short term.
Proximus’ Q1 was globally in line with expectations.
The key point is that Proximus has been lagging behind in the deployment of fibre compared to its peers and has to invest. So the group has not yet left the inn and should not immediately increase its dividends.
In our view, even if there is quite a solid upside in the long term for the stock there are few catalysts in the short term for the price to take off.
The stock was down by 10% last Friday (26 February) after the release of a disappointing Q4 but, above all, a poor outlook for 2021. Management expects indeed only flat revenues and an EBITDA down by 3-4% yoy, while capex should up by 20%.
However, we still believe that, given the investments made, Proximus deserves a degree of reappraisal as its yield remains safe and the dividend may ultimately grow with the pay-back on its speedier and augmented capex.
A good Q3 with a resilient and better-than-expected EBITDA. As a result Proximus has revised its 2020 guidance upwards with EBITDA-CAPEX at €830m vs €780m-800m previously.
Over 2020-22 the group is supposed to return a dividend of €1.2 (-20% compared to 2019 to invest more than ever in fibre and 5G). This level should, however, be considered as a floor and we believe the dividend could be raised earlier than currently expected.
Companies: Proximus SA de droit public
A correct Q2 with in particular a very good resilience in the EBITDA, which was down by only 1.5% yoy despite a logical 5.9% decline in revenues due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
Proximus reiterates once again its 2020 full-year guidance of EBITDA minus capex of €780-800m. Therefore the new dividend of €1.20 over 2020-22 proposed in early 2020 has to be considered as… a floor perfectly sustainable over the period.
We maintain our Buy opinion on the stock.
Proximus is a no-growth story for 2019… but is securing quarter after quarter its solid position on the Belgian TV side thanks to the deployment of its fibre network.
The stock has recovered 35% since July 2018. It is no longer very far off our target price which has not changed much in a year. We maintain our opinion at Add on the stock.
Proximus is a no-growth story for 2019.
The stock had recovered with a 20% increase during Q4. The stock is down by 6% this morning, investors preferring to move towards growth stocks while shedding no growth yield values.
We believe however this is still an opportunity to buy the stock given the secure yield and the fact that the group is currently winning, slowly but surely, market share on the TV side.
The key point to highlight is that Proximus is currently winning market share (likely 34.5% at end 2018 vs 32% at end 2016) on the TV side vs Telenet.
Even if Proximus does not offer genuine growth prospects and will have to face Telenet’s offensive in the quadruple play, its restructuring enables it to be more competitive and well positioned to maintain its leadership in 4G and to win market shares on TV… and also to offer a strong dividend.
Q1 revenues were flat yoy. And that is indeed slightly better than in the previous quarter (-0.9% in Q4). Domestic revenues were up by 0.9% yoy thanks to the Fixed data and TV services and despite the impact of the “Roam like at home” regulation, while revenue from BICS (the International Carrier division combined with that of the African telco MTN) were down by 3.9% yoy (it had decreased by 6.6% in Q4), but they included the consolidation of TeleSign for one month more.
As in previous quarter
The group released last Friday (2 March) its Q4 results.
Q4 revenues were down by 0.9% yoy, a slighter less decline compared to the -3.2% yoy recorded in both Q3 and Q2. Domestic revenues were indeed up by 0.9% despite the impact of the “Roam like at home” regulation, while revenue from BICS (the International Carrier division combined with that of the African telco MTN) were down by 6.6% (vs -12% in Q3 and Q2), but they included two months’ consolidation of TeleSign (the organic decline was in
The group released last week its Q3 results.
Q3 revenues were down by 3.2% yoy, like in Q2 (as a reminder, revenues were, however, up by 0.7% yoy in Q1). Domestic revenues were indeed only stable yoy (as expected given the impact of the “Roam like at home” regulation), while revenue from BICS (the International Carrier division combined with that of the African telco MTN) were down by 12.1%, like in Q2, driven by volatility in the voice business, combined with a less favourable destination mix
Q2 revenues were down by 2.9% yoy, a rather disappointing number given the 0.7% yoy growth recorded in Q1. Domestic revenues were indeed stable yoy as they were up by a solid 3.2% in Q1, while revenue from BICS (the International Carrier division combined with that of the African telco MTN) were down by 12.9%, a sharper decrease than in the two previous quarters, driven by volatility in the voice business, combined with a less favourable destination mix.
As in previous quarters, the EBITDA did
Q1 revenues were up by 0.7% yoy. A good number indeed as Domestic revenues were up by a very solid 3.2% while revenue from BICS (the International Carrier division combined with that of the African telco MTN) were down by 6.6%, like in Q4, due to a less favourable destination mix.
And, as in 2016, the good news was the strong increase in EBITDA (+4% yoy, the regional pylon tax effect aside) driven by the ongoing firm reduction in operating expenses.
Taking into account the implementation of ‘R
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