GES: Snapping the Store: Moving to a Boutique Model; Reiterate Buy, $37 PT

We are reiterating our Buy rating, $37 price target and projections for Guess? after visiting stores in the Metro New Your City area and Long Island. Management continues to materially upgrade the Guess? store experience, increasing the focus on key fashion items, reducing the visual impact of denim and focusing on highlighting limited inventory (and sizing) levels, all with the goal of creating a more elevated, boutique driven store experience, inline with what international Guess? shoppers exp

GES: Snapping the Store: Raising the Fashion Bar for Spring; Reiterate Buy

We are reiterating our Buy rating, $37 price target and projections after visiting Guess? stores in the Metro NYC area and Long Island. We believe, with Spring now beginning to fully flow into stores, Guess? has continued to pivot their overall looks and focus even more on key fashion items, with an increased emphasis on activewear, dresses, and accessories, particularly handbags and footwear and men's accessories. Further, the company is experimenting in select stores to limit overall sizes on

EXPR: Snapping the Store; Spring, Activewear, Swim Strong

We are reiterating our Buy rating, price target and projections for Express after visiting stores in Connecticut and Long Island. With Spring now in full bloom, Express has been rolling out new looks for the season, from a major activewear collection, an expansion of Body Contour, new men's swim, shorts for both men and women and seasonal suiting and dresses for the next key event or wedding. Further, the offerings are keyed by an increased focus on mix and match core basics, offering strong ver

GES; 4Q Review: Best Still in Store for GUESS?; Reiterate Buy & Raising PT

We are reiterating our Buy rating on GES, raising our price target to $37 (from $32.50) and rolling out FY26 projections after Guess? ended FY24 with a strong 4Q which easily beat both top and bottom line Street expectations and announced a $2.25 per share special dividend. Further, initial FY25 projections, which incorporate the acquisition of Rag & Bone, handily beat Street top line projections and bracket bottom line expectations, even as Guess? adds resources to drive Rag & Bone to higher ov

GES: 4Q Preview: Showing the Way; Reiterate Buy Rating, $32.50 PT

We are reiterating our Buy rating, $32.50 price target and projections for Guess? with the company announcing 4QFY24 (January) results after the close on Wednesday. We believe management remained conservative in their 4Q projections, already incorporating a tough domestic environment, which should allow the company to achieve top and bottom line results in their projected range. Further, we expect Guess? to incorporate multiple positive drivers in their initial FY25 guidance, including the recen

GES: Snapping the Story; Rolling Out Spring Winners; Reiterate Buy & $32.50 PT

We are reiterating our Buy rating, projections and $32.50 price target for Guess? after visiting stores in the NYC metro area and Long Island. We believe Guess? is rolling out strong initial fashion statements for Spring, from dresses to light hues and jackets, women's and men's activewear and further distortions for key accessories. For men's, new short sleeve shirts and accessories expansion are helping to drive traffic. Further, with the stores clean, the brand is fully ready for an early Spr

EXPR: Snapping the Store: Clearing & Gearing

We are reiterating our Buy rating, price target and projections for Express after visiting stores in Connecticut and Long Island. With the stores receiving early Spring shipments, the focus is on the final clearance of older goods and setting up for the new Spring Season. The new Spring season for women is setting up for lighter colors, continued high levels of versatility, and further expansion of key categories such as denim and Body Contour and women's suiting, while for men the focus is on t

GES: Rag & Bone an Auspicious First Acquisition; Reiterate Buy, $32.50 PT

We are reiterating our Buy rating, $32.50 price target and raising our projections to reflect the announced acquisition of leading premium ($195+) denim player rag & bone by Guess? and a joint venture with leading brand licensor WHP Global. We view this acquisition, Guess?' first, as an accretive winner, offering multiple (and material) expansion opportunities which leverage Guess?' strong international presence, infrastructure, category expansion and licensing ability and position as a leading

GES: Snapping the Store: Picking the Key Winners; Reiterate Buy, $32.50 PT

We are reiterating our Buy rating, $32.50 price target and projections after visiting Guess? stores in Long Island and the Metro New York City region. We believe Guess? maintained planned discounting levels during the Holiday season, made strong winning fashion bets on active wear, luggage, handbags, footwear and other accessories and denim. Inventories, with the exception of outerwear, were in solid shape and should, after end of season sales, be clean for Spring. Further, the company has alrea

EXPR: Snapping the Store; Clearing Out for a New Year; Reiterate Buy Rating, PT

We are reiterating our Buy rating and $20 price target for Express, but lowering our 4QFY23 projections after visiting stores in Long Island and Connecticut. While we believe the Holiday offerings, especially on the women's side, were solid in terms of looks and versatility, and the company was not overly focused on the tough outerwear market, Express management made a decision to materially clear out the stores back rooms, which has resulted in material markdowns and inventory on the store floo

GES: 2024 Signposts: Remain Focused on Winning; Reiterate Buy Rating, $32.50 PT

We are reiterating our Buy rating, $32.50 price target and projections for Guess? as we look ahead into 2024. We believe Guess? remains well positioned to continue to register strong top and bottom line results, as the company continues their international expansion, raises the overall fashion bar, maintains strong inventory integrity, further realigns their licensing portfolio and launches the Guess? Jeans contemporary line. Further, we believe there remains opportunities to continue to upgrade

EXPR: 2024 Signposts: Creating the New Baseline; Reiterate Buy Rating, $20 PT

We are reiterating our Buy rating, $20 price target and projections for Express as we enter the new year. With FY24 setting up as the first complete fiscal year under new CEO Stewart Glendinning, we look for Express to begin to leverage the gains from material cost saving programs, continue to expand the relationship with brand licensor WHP Global, further demonstrate the strength of the Bonobos acquisition and re-energize the Express brand to once again register consistent, profitable results.

GES: Winning the Fashion Battle; Reiterate Buy Rating, $32.50 Price Target

We are reiterating our Buy rating, projections and $32.50 price target for Guess? after visiting stores in Metropolitan New York City and Long Island. We believe, with a solid Black Friday promotion, key winning strategies to expand the activewear, footwear and outerwear categories and strong accessories driven revenue, Guess? was able to remain strategic throughout the Holiday season and, we believe, undertake the promotional calendar they originally anticipated. As such, we remain confident in

EXPR: Getting Clean as Near Peak Xmas; Reiterate Buy Rating, $20 PT

We are reiterating our Buy rating, price target and projections for Express after visiting stores in Connecticut and Long Island. We believe Express has continued to aggressively reduce inventory levels and potential product overhang into 2024, as the company takes advantage of a strong women's offering, reduced dependence on heavy seasonal items (i.e. outerwear), new categories (loungewear), improved accessories offerings, and strong value and versatility, all of which have somewhat offset what

EXPR: 3Q Review; Cleaning Up the Mess; Reiterate Buy, Lowering PT to $20

We are cutting our projections and price target for Express, but maintaining our Buy rating after the company missed 3Q projections and guided to a materially weaker than expected 4Q. Further, with inventories heavier than expected ahead of the Holiday season (up 14% YoY, or flat if Bonobos is excluded) we expect the season to remain aggressively promotional and, in the near term, offset any gains from cost savings and other S,G&A reductions (and probably spill over into Q1FY24). That said, we c

Tracsis - Interims: FY order book visibility and a doubled pipeline

Interims to January are in line with the February TU, and materially unchanged forecasts for the FY July 2024. After the well flagged expected 1H24 revenue movement of -7% (vs 1H23 which had been strengthened by c£2m perpetual licence sales in the US), prospects for the second half are supported by several new contracts that will generate revenue in 2H24, in addition to material contract delivery milestones from existing large projects such as major TRACS Enterprise, Railhub deployments, and Rem

Eleco - FY23 recurring revenue growth of +22%, EBITDA +2% ahead

Eleco’s FY23 results show robust organic recurring revenue growth of +17% with recurring revenue +22% to £20.7m, adj EBITDA +2% ahead of the January update, and a confident outlook with Q1 ARR already at £24.5m vs £22.6m at FY23. At this point, the excellent start to FY24 leads us to reiterate our FY24-26E revenue, adj EBITDA, EFCF, and DPS, and we include the April 2024 acquisition of Vertical Digital in our FY24-26E net cash, as we explain below. As Eleco builds upon the successful acquisition

An excellent win, momentum rebuilding

Made Tech has won a material expansion (worth up to £19.5m/2yrs) with a long-standing customer, The Department for Levelling Up, Housing and Communities (“DLUHC”). Coming off the back of a soft H1 bookings performance, we expect this win to materially boost investor sentiment and reassure how notwithstanding a tough backdrop (given an impending general election) MTEC continues to outcompete legacy providers and in-so-doing, grow its share of wallet with large/strategic customers. Landing near FY

Morning Note – 24 April 2024

LIBERUM: 1Spatial: Walk the talk and get SaaSy

Alphawave Semi - FY23 results, 1Q24 trading update

Following the updated guidance published last week, Alphawave reported a 74% YoY increase in revenue to US$321.7m for FY23 generating adjusted EBITDA of US$62.6m, up 34% YoY. As previewed, bookings in 1Q24 were strong at US$117.9m, up 20% YoY and ahead of guidance. The results release and conference call confirm that revised guidance mainly reflects a more conservative approach to revenue recognition under new CFO, Rahul Mathur, and an acceleration in the pace at which Alphawave is pivoting away

tinyBuild (TBLD LN) - Focused on H2 recovery

tinyBuild’s FY23 results confirmed a sharp drop in revenue and swing into adjusted EBITDA losses, as well as asset impairments and high cash burn. After already making $10m of annualised cost savings, the company continues to run-down its cash balance and now relies on a H2-weighted release schedule to reduce cash outflows.

LIBERUM: Cerillion: Continued strong trading in 1H

Morning Note – 23 April 2024

Pennant International - FY23 update and appointment

We view confirmation of market forecasts / PEN's February update as providing further validation for the company's strategy. Ongoing business streams (including the concluding stage of the Boeing / Apache contract) provide underpinning for forecasts for the current year and software-derived earnings as strategized look set to rise in FY24 with the launch of the company's GenS technology (well-regarded and long-established OmegaPS series update). Tuesday's statement from the Prime Minister ple

Synectics + (SNX, House Stock at 188p) - Positive AGM statement

To infinity…

Cerillion has announced a very solid update, as H1 sales and EBITDA are both up 10% y/y to £22.5m and £10.9m respectively, notwithstanding the exceptionally strong base period (sales and EBITDA +27% and +38% resp.). Results therefore point to continued strong customer demand, reflecting how Cerillion’s out-of-the-box product continues to resonate and gain adoption, particularly in a ‘budget conscious’ environment, by offering faster time to market, greater configurability and at a lower cost. Me

Checkit - Signposting the path to profitability

In a tough trading environment, Checkit managed to grow FY24 revenue by 17% and reduce EBITDA losses by nearly half. The company has had a positive start to FY25 with new contract wins and the launch of a new module. Focus on growth from its existing customer base combined with strict cost control is helping Checkit to make steady progress towards its target of positive EBITDA and cash generation in FY27.

Hybridan Small Cap Feast - 24 April 24

24th April 2024 * A corporate client of Hybridan LLP ** Arranged by type of listing and date of announcement *** Alphabetically arranged **** Potential means Intention to Float (ITF) has been announced Dish of the day Admissions: Delistings: What’s baking in the oven? ** Potential**** Initial Public Offerings: Reverse Takeovers: 16 April 2024: Electric Guitar (ELEG.L) Concurrent with its Admission to trading on AIM, Electric Guitar is proposing to acquire the entire issued share capital of 3radi

In-line H1, strategic initiatives advancing at pace

As reported in March, underlying EBITDA profitability improved to record levels despite FX headwinds. Further platform and proposition developments were completed, key steps on its digital roadmap, and it has already won 7 contracts YTD. Alongside planned growth in private membership, this will at least offset the loss of one contract. Forecasts are left unchanged today and, as member engagement throttles back up, FX headwinds ease, and proof points of digital efficiency emerge, markets should b