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BELLUS Health – Taking Stock
15 Aug 16
It has now been nearly two months since BELLUS Health announced that its lead candidate KIACTA™ had not met its primary endpoint in the Phase 3 study completed earlier this year. The shares are 89% down since the news. The company’s recent Q3 release however tells us Shigamab™, a wholly owned programme, has shown further very strong pre-clinical data for sHUS this time in a primate model, and reminds us that BELLUS Health holds interests in a number of third party programmes that have potential we believe not currently reflected in the share price.
Where next for BELLUS Health?
21 Jun 16
The drug development company focused on rare diseases has announced top-line Phase 3 results of KIACTA™ for the treatment of AA amyloidosis. Disappointingly the study did not meet its primary efficacy endpoint (ie shown to have delayed defined adverse events at a P value of 0.05 or less) but was shown to be safe and well tolerated over treatment periods of greater than 4 years. The shares fell 79% on the day to C$0.51.
Countdown to D Day
16 May 16
The drug development company focused on rare diseases last week reported financial and operating results for the quarter ending 31 March. The numbers in themselves contained no surprises. The company made a loss of C$724k vs C$46k in Q1 2015, with the increased loss pertaining largely to a lower level of revenue recognised for accounting purposes in 2016 in relation to the VIVIMIND™ license agreement with FB Health, an increase in general and administrative costs to C$988k from $719k as well as an increase in foreign exchange loss.
FY2015 results reveal small profit but focus now on vital Q2 KIACTATM data
04 Mar 16
Last week the drug development company focused on rare diseases reported its results for the year ended December 2015. Revenues of C$4m exceeded our C$2.5m expectation. This was due to a higher amount of revenues recognised under the service agreement with the company’s partner on KIACTATM Auven Therapeutics and VIMINDTM license agreement with FB Health. However it should be noted that the cash element of these revenues totaled C$1.3m. On that same basis the company also beat our projections in terms of profitability with a total net profit attributable to shareholders of C$202k compared to a $1.9m loss in FY2014. Year end cash and equivalents of $9.7m were in line with our expectations giving the company some headroom to advance its earlier stage programmes in the event that no deal is struck for KIACTATM this year.
Phase 3 confirmatory trial complete
22 Jan 16
BELLUS Health and its partner Auven therapeutics have announced that the KIACTATM event-driven phase 3 confirmatory study for the treatment of AA amyloidosis, has met its completion target of 120 patient events linked to the deterioration of kidney function. Top line data will take a few months to be compiled after all remaining patients have completed final study visits. The trial has spanned 50 sites worldwide. It is only once this process is complete that the data from the placebo controlled trial will be unblinded and all stakeholders (the company, its shareholders, clinicians and AA amyloidosis sufferers) will know whether the study has met with its primary endpoint which will support global regulatory approvals. The initial results are expected to be released in the second quarter of this year.
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21 Oct 16
STM* (STM): Acquisition of London & Colonial (CORP) | Hurricane Energy (HUR): £70m placing and open offer (BUY) | Firestone Diamonds* (FDI): Liqhobong commissioning update (BUY) | Accsys (AXS): Acorn aiming to be a mighty oak – analyst interview (BUY) | Avacta* (AVCT): Act now… – analyst interview (CORP) | Tristel* (TSTL): Full year 2016 results – analyst interview (CORP)
25 Oct 16
"London’s blue chip index is called some 15 points higher during this morning’s opening trade, which should see the FTSE-100 test the psychologically important 7000 level once again. The US markets, whose principal indices all closed higher overnight, remain Europe’s main influence as investors track the territory’s latest round of deals and earnings. While broadly pleasing investors, technology issues continue to lead the way which resulted in the NASDAQ registering a full 1% rise on good trading volumes. Against this background, the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President, Charles Evans, delivered a speech in which he predicted three US interest-rate rises before the end of 2017, while effectively suggesting that the central bank should allow its inflation target to be overshot before responding with confidence strangling hikes. Generally, however, his forecasts are not far from the current consensus, although he refused to be drawn of the timing of the first move which the markets continue to anticipate in the form of a 25bp move being delivered before the 2016 year-end. By comparison, Asia ended mixed, with the Shanghai Composite finishing unchanged as a weaker Yuan was countered by gains in resource stocks; the latter also boosted the ASX’s commodity-heavy index while a weaker Yen resulted in the Nikkei closing the session with the region’s strongest gain. No major UK macro data are due for release today, which means that traders will eyes will remain focussed on the US disclosure of consumer confidence and housing figures due this afternoon, with neither the ECB President Mario Draghi’s scheduled lecture or the Bank of England Governor, Mark Carney’s appearance before the Lord’s Committee, expected to provide significant new market-sensitive information. Earnings or trading updates are expected from Anglo American Carpetright (AAL.L), GKN (GKN.L), National Express (NEX.L) and Whitbread (WTB.L). Significant quarterly earnings also due from US majors due this afternoon include Apple and General Motors. " - Barry Gibb, Research Analyst
Panmure Morning Note 27-10-2016
27 Oct 16
CareTech announces that trading to September 2016 is in line with market expectations. The company continues to trade at a significant discount to peers, we believe this is unjustified given the consistent performance in recent periods, including double digit EBITDA growth and high dividend yield. We maintain our BUY recommendation and 380p price target.
FY 2016 results
17 Oct 16
Full-year results were 7% ahead of the August trading update. Revenue growth of 27% was driven by Vitamin D, up c55%, and sterling's depreciation, which contributed c11% to growth. A higher final dividend together with a 20p special dividend implies a combined yield of 2.9%. Management is confident that Siemens will launch its troponin-based assay contributing to and largely replacing lost NT proBNP royalties in FY 2018. We have increased our target price to 1450p to reflect a 5% EPS upgrade to 2017 earnings and introduced a 2018 forecast, calling for EPS of 72.7p.
N+1 Singer - Morning Song 26-10-2016
26 Oct 16
Verona Pharma has been awarded its second Venture and Innovation Award from the UK Cystic Fibrosis Trust for the development of RPL554 in Cystic Fibrosis (CF). The award signals the significant potential for RPL554 to be developed as a novel treatment for Cystic Fibrosis. Preliminary data supports the molecule’s potential utility in this indication, demonstrating RPL554’S ability to activate an ion channel known to be dysfunctional in CF. The award will support a Phase IIa clinical trial expected to commence in H1 2017. Preparations have also started for Phase IIb trials of RPL554 as a nebulised treatment for COPD with clinical dosing expected to commence in Q2 2017. We remain extremely encouraged by the expanding opportunity of RPL554 and Verona Pharma’s future prospects.