Nutrien reported net earnings of $469mn in 3Q25, up from $25mn a year ago, with diluted net earnings per share of $0.96, compared to $0.04 last year. The company’s sales reached $6,007mn, up 12% YoY in 3Q, and $21,545mn (+3% YoY) in 9M25. Gross margin rose to $1,964mn in 3Q, up 31% YoY, while Adjusted EBITDA was $1,431mn, up 42% YoY. In 9M25, diluted net earnings per share were $3.48, compared to $1.13 a year ago. The Retail segment posted sales of $3,427mn in 3Q, up 5% YoY, driven by crop nutrients sales, with Adjusted EBITDA of $230mn. In 9M25, Retail sales reached $14,476mn, down 1% YoY, largely due to lower crop protection product sales, while Adjusted EBITDA improved to $1,425mn, up 5% YoY, supported by lower operating expenses. In the Potash segment, net sales increased 27% YoY, driven by higher selling prices. The average potash selling price rose to $277/t in 3Q from $213/t a year earlier. Potash volumes declined from 4.152mt to 4.059mt. Adjusted EBITDA reached $733mn, up 32% YoY. In 9M25, potash net sales totaled $2,857mn (+16% YoY) and Adjusted EBITDA was $1,809mn (+16% YoY). Latin America remained the largest market for Canpotex, followed by other Asian markets. India and China represented just 15% of Canpotex’s sales in 9M25. Nutrien’s Nitrogen segment delivered strong results, with net sales of $1,063mn (+34% YoY) and Adjusted EBITDA of $556mn (+57% YoY) in 3Q25. Higher net selling prices for ammonia, urea, and nitrogen solutions supported the increase. The average net selling price was $357/t in 3Q, up from $298/t a year ago. Gross margin in the nitrogen segment rose to $139mn, compared to $83mn last year. Strong demand drove a higher operating rate for ammonia—86% in 3Q versus 79% a year ago. In the Phosphate segment, net sales increased 20% YoY in 3Q to $495mn, with Adjusted EBITDA of $122mn, up 37% YoY. Higher phosphate prices and volumes were partially offset by increased sulfur costs. Nutrien announced it is reviewing strategic options for the phosphate business—including operational reconfiguration, strategic partnerships, or a potential sale—with a decision expected in 2026. Nutrien sold its 50% stake in Profertil for $0.6bn. The Trinidad nitrogen facility was shut down in October due to uncertainty around gas supply. The company ended the quarter with $13bn of debt and $0.6bn in cash and cash equivalents. Nutrien repurchased 8.3mn shares in 2025 for a total of $465mn as of November 4, 2025. In total, $1.2bn was returned to shareholders in 9M25 through dividends and share repurchases.
Nutrien raised its potash sales guidance for FY25 from 13.9–14.5 mt to 14.0–14.5 mt, and now expects Retail Adjusted EBITDA of $1.68–1.82bn, nitrogen sales volumes of 10.7–11.0 mt, and phosphate sales volumes of 2.35–2.55 mt. Strong global potash demand is expected to drive shipments to 73–75 mt in 2025 and potentially 74–77 mt in 2026, compared to 72.5 mt in 2024. Global capacity additions remain limited. Nitrogen demand is estimated to grow 2% YoY in 2025, while Chinese urea exports may remain weak in 4Q25. Phosphate supply constraints are expected to persist globally through 2025.
Potash and nitrogen demand outlooks remain positive for 2025 and 2026. Fertilizer producers continue to report robust demand, supported by higher prices and still-limited supply over the next two years. We maintain our DCF-based 12-month price target of US$65.4 and reaffirm our ‘Buy’ rating on the stock.
24 Nov 2025
Nutrien 3Q25: Solid Margins; Phosphates Under Strategic Review
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Nutrien 3Q25: Solid Margins; Phosphates Under Strategic Review
Nutrien reported net earnings of $469mn in 3Q25, up from $25mn a year ago, with diluted net earnings per share of $0.96, compared to $0.04 last year. The company’s sales reached $6,007mn, up 12% YoY in 3Q, and $21,545mn (+3% YoY) in 9M25. Gross margin rose to $1,964mn in 3Q, up 31% YoY, while Adjusted EBITDA was $1,431mn, up 42% YoY. In 9M25, diluted net earnings per share were $3.48, compared to $1.13 a year ago. The Retail segment posted sales of $3,427mn in 3Q, up 5% YoY, driven by crop nutrients sales, with Adjusted EBITDA of $230mn. In 9M25, Retail sales reached $14,476mn, down 1% YoY, largely due to lower crop protection product sales, while Adjusted EBITDA improved to $1,425mn, up 5% YoY, supported by lower operating expenses. In the Potash segment, net sales increased 27% YoY, driven by higher selling prices. The average potash selling price rose to $277/t in 3Q from $213/t a year earlier. Potash volumes declined from 4.152mt to 4.059mt. Adjusted EBITDA reached $733mn, up 32% YoY. In 9M25, potash net sales totaled $2,857mn (+16% YoY) and Adjusted EBITDA was $1,809mn (+16% YoY). Latin America remained the largest market for Canpotex, followed by other Asian markets. India and China represented just 15% of Canpotex’s sales in 9M25. Nutrien’s Nitrogen segment delivered strong results, with net sales of $1,063mn (+34% YoY) and Adjusted EBITDA of $556mn (+57% YoY) in 3Q25. Higher net selling prices for ammonia, urea, and nitrogen solutions supported the increase. The average net selling price was $357/t in 3Q, up from $298/t a year ago. Gross margin in the nitrogen segment rose to $139mn, compared to $83mn last year. Strong demand drove a higher operating rate for ammonia—86% in 3Q versus 79% a year ago. In the Phosphate segment, net sales increased 20% YoY in 3Q to $495mn, with Adjusted EBITDA of $122mn, up 37% YoY. Higher phosphate prices and volumes were partially offset by increased sulfur costs. Nutrien announced it is reviewing strategic options for the phosphate business—including operational reconfiguration, strategic partnerships, or a potential sale—with a decision expected in 2026. Nutrien sold its 50% stake in Profertil for $0.6bn. The Trinidad nitrogen facility was shut down in October due to uncertainty around gas supply. The company ended the quarter with $13bn of debt and $0.6bn in cash and cash equivalents. Nutrien repurchased 8.3mn shares in 2025 for a total of $465mn as of November 4, 2025. In total, $1.2bn was returned to shareholders in 9M25 through dividends and share repurchases.
Nutrien raised its potash sales guidance for FY25 from 13.9–14.5 mt to 14.0–14.5 mt, and now expects Retail Adjusted EBITDA of $1.68–1.82bn, nitrogen sales volumes of 10.7–11.0 mt, and phosphate sales volumes of 2.35–2.55 mt. Strong global potash demand is expected to drive shipments to 73–75 mt in 2025 and potentially 74–77 mt in 2026, compared to 72.5 mt in 2024. Global capacity additions remain limited. Nitrogen demand is estimated to grow 2% YoY in 2025, while Chinese urea exports may remain weak in 4Q25. Phosphate supply constraints are expected to persist globally through 2025.
Potash and nitrogen demand outlooks remain positive for 2025 and 2026. Fertilizer producers continue to report robust demand, supported by higher prices and still-limited supply over the next two years. We maintain our DCF-based 12-month price target of US$65.4 and reaffirm our ‘Buy’ rating on the stock.