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Breakfast Today

  • 27 Jun 16

"The Brexit fall-out will continue today, with uncertainty seemingly compounding over the weekend as investors reflected on the apparent lack of immediate, firm policy planning and contingent measures to cope with such a binary outcome. The FTSE-100 is seen opening around 95 points down in highly volatile trade, while the principal European indices are also expected to be hit hard again. IMF head, Christine Lagarde, warned of further economic and political pain if UK and European policy markets were not quick to reassure by filling this void. As always, when in doubt, currency volatility remains elevated; Sterling's fall continued in Asia with the onshore GBP/Yuan pair tumbling 8.7% as the PBOC lowered its daily fix by 0.91% to a six-year low on Monday, the largest daily fall since China shocked markets with its currency devaluation; EUR/US$ remains under similar pressure as Eurosceptic parties shake the foundations of the EU to the core by repeating calls for their own referendums. By contrast, Germany has attempted to salvage something from the wreckage, with Peter Altmaier, Angela Merkel's chief of staff suggesting UK politicians should have the possibility to 'think again about the fallout from the exit' following the Chancellor's suggestion that Berlin did not see Britain's vote as irrevocable. Meanwhile, equities in London are seen continuing the pattern set on Friday, with UK banks, retailers and housebuilders/real estate suffering relative to defensives like utilities, telecoms and heathcare. Looking overseas, Japanese equities rebounded as the Nikkei recouped some of Friday's near 8% plunge, while selling continued everywhere else in the region; US indices suffered badly, led by financial from the outset as east coast pundits felt forced to again reflect on the chances of the 'unthinkable' at November's forthcoming presidential election. There is little other news that will capture trader's attention today, as eyes focus on Parliament's post Brexit gathering. The Council of Mortgage lenders data is due for release this morning, while amongst corporates interim results are due from Porvair." - Barry Gibb, Research Analyst