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Since the FY2020 results announcement in December 2020, the UK has gone into a prolonged lockdown that has significantly reduced high street footfall, not to mention the international travel restrictions impacting Ramsdens FX business. Against this backdrop the group has delivered a resilient performance in 1H21. Despite most stores remaining open, the group expects to report only a small loss in the half helped by prudent cost control. Moreover, the group’s balance sheet remains strong with c.£15m of cash and an undrawn £10m credit facility. Given today’s update and continued uncertainty regarding international travel, we now expect FY2021E PBT of £1.0m (from £3.9m). We continue to believe in a strong recovery once restrictions are lifted and maintain our TP of 162p. However, given the recent share price performance we move to a HOLD rating.
Companies: Ramsdens Holdings PLC
Wickes to demerge from Travis Perkins and list on the Main Market. Expected 28 April. Advance Energy to complete an RTO on AIM indirectly acquiring up to 50% of Carnarvon Petroleum Timor which holds a 100 per cent. working interest and is the contractor under the Buffalo PSC, offshore Timor-Leste. Carnarvon Petroleum Timor is a subsidiary of ASX listed company, Carnarvon Petroleum Limited. The net proceeds of the Placing of approximately £20.01m (approximately US$27.51mm) will be used to fund the Acquisition. Due 19 April. NFT Investments plc is an investment company that specialises in non-fungible tokens (NFT). Has applied for admission to the Access segment of the AQSE Growth Market. No funds being raised. Due 16 April. Thor Explorations (TSXV:THX) seeking a secondary listing on AIM. The Company is targeting Admission during Q2 2021. Segun Lawson, President & CEO, stated: “Thor Explorations has advanced significantly, in both project development and capitalisation since the acquisition of Segilola in 2016. This year, the Company is well positioned to achieve two major milestones with the commencement of gold production at Segilola in Nigeria and a maiden resource at Douta in Senegal, as well as continuing to progress our highly prospective Nigerian exploration portfolio on the Ilesha Schist belt.” MAST Energy Developments (MED) is to IPO on the Standard List on 14th April 2021 under the ticker MAST. The company has raised £5m giving a market capitalisation on listing of c. £23m. MED is currently a 100% subsidiary company of AIM quoted, Kibo Energy*. MED was established to acquire and develop a portfolio of flexible power plants in the UK and become a multi-asset operator in the rapidly growing Reserve Power market. PensionBee has confirmed its intention to float on the High Growth Segment of the Main Market of LSE. The online pension provider had approximately 130,000 Active Customers and £1.5bn of assets under administration, in each case as at 28 February 2021. The Offer will comprise new Shares raising gross proceeds of approximately £55m and existing Shares to be sold by certain existing small minority shareholders of up to £5m. None of the founders, directors or members of senior management of PensionBee are selling any existing Shares. Expected in April. Imperial X (AQSE:IMPP) to join the Main Market (standard). It is also proposed that on Admission to the Official List, the Company will change its name to Cloudbreak Discovery Plc. With effect from Admission, Imperial X will hold equity positions and royalties in a variety of projects in the natural resources sector across multiple jurisdictions, primarily in the Americas and Africa. The Company is proposing to raise up to £1.5m by way of placing of new Ordinary Shares to support further prospect acquisitions. Current Mkt cap £4.7m Expected April 2021. Proposed move to AIM from the main market (standard) by Emmerson (EML.L) to provide Emmerson with access to a market and environment which is more suited, in the Board's view, to the Company's current size and strategy ahead of pivotal period for the Company with the commencement of mine construction at the Khemisset Potash Project expected by end of 2021. Follows recent award of Mining Licence granting Emmerson exclusive right to develop and mine the potash deposit and £5.5m raise to fund ongoing project development work. NextEnergy Renewables to launch an IPO on the Main Market. NREN is a differentiated renewables investment Company that aims to capture the most attractive private renewables and energy transition infrastructure investment opportunities globally. Targeting a £300m raise. NREN is targeting total returns of 9-11 per cent. per annum (net of all fees and expenses but including the Target Dividend and capital appreciation) . The Company's target dividend yield for the first full financial year to 31 December 2022 is 5.5 pence. Due Early March 2021. Digital 9 Infrastructure launch an initial public offering on the Specialist Fund Segment of the Main Market of the London Stock Exchange, by way of an initial placing and offer for subscription for a target issue £400m. Digital 9 Infrastructure plc is a newly established, externally managed investment trust. The Company will invest in a range of digital infrastructure assets which deliver a reliable, functioning internet. The IPO Prospectus is expected to be published in March 2021. Fix Price announces its intention to float on the Main Market of the London Stock Exchange. Fix Price is one of the leading variety value retailers globally and the largest in Russia, with more than 4,200 stores. Fix Price has revenues of RUB 190.1bn, RUB 142.9bn and RUB 108.7bn for 2020, 2019 and 2018, respectively. Adjusted EBITDA for the same years was RUB 36.8bn, RUB 27.2bn and RUB 14.2bn, respectively. The Offer would consist of an offering of GDRs by certain existing shareholders of the Company. Great Point Entertainment Income Trust PLC announced its prospectus has been approved by the FCA. Great Point Entertainment Income Trust PLC is a newly established, externally managed closed-ended investment company. The Company will provide project finance to content makers and commissioners in the global television and film production industry via senior loans secured against pre-sold intellectual property (IP) rights. GPEIT's investment objective is to provide Shareholders with dividend income and modest capital growth through exposure to media content finance.
Companies: GOOD FIH SRT NFC RFX ARCM ACRL EQLS ORPH VRS
NFT Investments plc is an investment company that specialises in non-fungible tokens (NFT). Has applied for admission to the Access segment of the AQSE Growth Market. No funds being raised. Due 16 April. Thor Explorations (TSXV:THX) seeking a secondary listing on AIM. The Company is targeting Admission during Q2 2021. Segun Lawson, President & CEO, stated: “Thor Explorations has advanced significantly, in both project development and capitalisation since the acquisition of Segilola in 2016. This year, the Company is well positioned to achieve two major milestones with the commencement of gold production at Segilola in Nigeria and a maiden resource at Douta in Senegal, as well as continuing to progress our highly prospective Nigerian exploration portfolio on the Ilesha Schist belt.” MAST Energy Developments (MED) is to IPO on the Standard List on 14th April 2021 under the ticker MAST. The company has raised £5m giving a market capitalisation on listing of c. £23m. MED is currently a 100% subsidiary company of AIM quoted, Kibo Energy*. MED was established to acquire and develop a portfolio of flexible power plants in the UK and become a multi-asset operator in the rapidly growing Reserve Power market. PensionBee has confirmed its intention to float on the High Growth Segment of the Main Market of LSE. The online pension provider had approximately 130,000 Active Customers and £1.5bn of assets under administration, in each case as at 28 February 2021. The Offer will comprise new Shares raising gross proceeds of approximately £55m and existing Shares to be sold by certain existing small minority shareholders of up to £5m. None of the founders, directors or members of senior management of PensionBee are selling any existing Shares. Expected in April. Imperial X (AQSE:IMPP) to join the Main Market (standard). It is also proposed that on Admission to the Official List, the Company will change its name to Cloudbreak Discovery Plc. With effect from Admission, Imperial X will hold equity positions and royalties in a variety of projects in the natural resources sector across multiple jurisdictions, primarily in the Americas and Africa. The Company is proposing to raise up to £1.5m by way of placing of new Ordinary Shares to support further prospect acquisitions. Current Mkt cap £4.7m Expected April 2021. Proposed move to AIM from the main market (standard) by Emmerson (EML.L) to provide Emmerson with access to a market and environment which is more suited, in the Board's view, to the Company's current size and strategy ahead of pivotal period for the Company with the commencement of mine construction at the Khemisset Potash Project expected by end of 2021. Follows recent award of Mining Licence granting Emmerson exclusive right to develop and mine the potash deposit and £5.5m raise to fund ongoing project development work. NextEnergy Renewables to launch an IPO on the Main Market. NREN is a differentiated renewables investment Company that aims to capture the most attractive private renewables and energy transition infrastructure investment opportunities globally. Targeting a £300m raise. NREN is targeting total returns of 9-11 per cent. per annum (net of all fees and expenses but including the Target Dividend and capital appreciation) . The Company's target dividend yield for the first full financial year to 31 December 2022 is 5.5 pence. Due Early March 2021. Digital 9 Infrastructure launch an initial public offering on the Specialist Fund Segment of the Main Market of the London Stock Exchange, by way of an initial placing and offer for subscription for a target issue £400m. Digital 9 Infrastructure plc is a newly established, externally managed investment trust. The Company will invest in a range of digital infrastructure assets which deliver a reliable, functioning internet. The IPO Prospectus is expected to be published in March 2021. Fix Price announces its intention to float on the Main Market of the London Stock Exchange. Fix Price is one of the leading variety value retailers globally and the largest in Russia, with more than 4,200 stores. Fix Price has revenues of RUB 190.1bn, RUB 142.9bn and RUB 108.7bn for 2020, 2019 and 2018, respectively. Adjusted EBITDA for the same years was RUB 36.8bn, RUB 27.2bn and RUB 14.2bn, respectively. The Offer would consist of an offering of GDRs by certain existing shareholders of the Company. Great Point Entertainment Income Trust PLC announced its prospectus has been approved by the FCA. Great Point Entertainment Income Trust PLC is a newly established, externally managed closed-ended investment company. The Company will provide project finance to content makers and commissioners in the global television and film production industry via senior loans secured against pre-sold intellectual property (IP) rights. GPEIT's investment objective is to provide Shareholders with dividend income and modest capital growth through exposure to media content finance.
Companies: RCN NCCL PRIM ORR AVCT TLY RENX CMCL ARO
Premier Miton’s 2Q21 trading update highlights the continued progress in both improving performance and AUM mix. Following a strong first quarter, 2Q21 AUM increased by a further 5% QoQ to £12.6bn (LibE: £12.1bn) driven by a second successive quarter of net fund flows and good market performance. Demand for UK equity-focused strategies is finally increasing and we expect the group to outperform given its strong track record and overweight position. Recent changes, including lower costs for investors, should also help turnaround the recent fund outflows in multi-asset funds. The strong 1H21 performance and good start by new funds gives us confidence that the group is well positioned for long-term growth. We raise our FY2021E EPS by 5% which results in our TP increasing to 188p (from 179p) offering 31% TSR.
Companies: Premier Miton Group Plc
The UK market showed a continued recovery in the first quarter albeit the indices are still well short of their all-time peaks, unlike many of their international peers. The FTSE 100 has risen by 1,186 points (21.4%) since the end of October and the FTSE 250 by 4,304 points (25.0%). The comparable performance since the start of the year is less spectacular- the FTSE 100 has risen by 253 points (3.9%) and the FTSE 250 has risen by 1,070 points (5.0%). The factors behind the sustained rally are familiar. The belief that the roll-out of the vaccine and some relaxation of lockdown limitations will lead to a significant economic recovery, compared to the collapse seen in the first half of 2020, due to lockdowns. Indeed, the recent economic picture is becoming more optimistic than previous expectations. According to the ONS, the economy grew a little more than initially estimated in Q4 last year. This means GDP for 2020 as a whole contracted by 9.8%, revised up marginally but still the worst contraction on record. Markets, in general, have focused upon the potential scope and extent of the recovery. The sectors and stocks that have outperformed have been seen as ‘recovery’ plays with a rotation from stocks seen as ‘lockdown’ winners into those set to benefit from the ‘unlocking of society’ and/or exposed to the consumer. We expect 2021 will continue to be a “stock-picker’s” market. The sharp increase in the household savings ratio in Q4 highlights the scope for a recovery driven by expenditure. As further lockdown limitations are lifted, evidence of this growth will help to underpin the more optimistic outlook for Q2 and beyond.
Companies: AMYT ARBB BPC BAG BVC BEG BONH BLVN BRSD CML CWK CRPR EYE ECHO FDM FAR FA/ GPH GSF HUW INSE JDG KAPE KP2 MACF MPAC MNZS NESF NBI OTMP OBD PREM QFI RUA SCS SEN SOS SUR TON TOU TXP TGL TCN UEM VLS WYN
Belvoir has reported a very strong set of results, ahead of pre-Covid expectations, driven by a resilient performance in the Property division and strong growth in Financial Services. The relatively low risk and capital light nature of the group’s franchise model and its ability to attract and motivate entrepreneurs in the sector continues to deliver strong returns. Cash flow remained strong, with net debt reducing to £3.7m from £6.9m, post a £2.1m acquisition and £1.9m dividend cost. With Government policies set to keep the housing sector moving until at least September 2021 and Belvoir’s long-term growth potential undiminished in a large, fragmented market, we have upgraded our FY 2021 EPS forecast by 11% and target price from 233p to 285p.
Companies: Belvoir Group PLC
Duke is raising up to £35m (gross) in new equity to deploy into new royalty partners and a follow-on investment. Crucially, the equity enhancement allows the group to make full use of the recently enlarged £55m Honeycomb debt facility for deployment. The resulting c£73m of available liquidity should see the group scale up to c£165m of invested capital and significantly diversify and secure the portfolio's royalties and lead to a notable step up in DPS toward pre-COVID-19 levels.
Companies: Duke Royalty
Companies: ARG ADT UKOG PHAR UNG CYAN FA/ SNX VRE SHED
In the past few weeks, all the listed multi-national pharmaceutical companies have reported results for 2020, which has given us the opportunity to update our industry statistics and drug database. This report provides the first, snapshot publication of global and US rankings of the top 20 drug companies for 2020. Comparisons are made with historical data to show how different company strategies have evolved. In addition, summary analysis has been provided for the sales evolution of therapeutic biopharmaceutical drugs, which saw sales rise 5.6% to $245bn, representing 26% of the market, driven by antibody-derived drugs.
Companies: AVO ARIX BBGI CLIG DNL FLTA ICGT OCI PCA PIN PXC RECI STX SCE TRX VTA YEW
When finnCap issued a very positive trading update in early March, it noted that it retained a good pipeline with deals still to close in the remaining weeks of its financial year to the end of March 2021. The post-close update confirms that the Group did, indeed, secure further revenue following stronger performances than expected across all its businesses. It states that Total Income will be around £47.3m – well ahead of the previous view of ‘in excess of £43m’ and an 83% increase on the prior year. The M&A team maintained its strong financial Q4 performance while equity and debt activity continued to flourish. Reflecting the higher anticipated outturn, we upgrade our revenue and EBITDA estimates for FY 2021E by 9% and 11% respectively. CEO Sam Smith confirms that the Group’s Q1 2022E pipeline is ‘healthy’ and we see finnCap enter its new financial year with a set of businesses that are performing strongly, backed by a robust balance sheet.
Companies: finnCap Group plc
Urban Logistics REIT (“ULR”) has secured two assets at aggregate £21.7m cost equating to a 6.14% NIY. Both assets have long unexpired lease terms and opportunities for rental growth, as well as scope for value creation through asset management. 99% of rents for the Jun-21 quarter have already been collected. ULR offers a 6% dividend yield on the annualised returns from capital deployed in FY22e. With the price at NAV, we think that this represents an attractive entry point into an active value creation play with strong structural tailwinds.
Companies: Urban Logistics REIT plc
While Regional REIT’s (RGL’s) uninterrupted quarterly FY20 DPS payments backed by consistently strong rent collection has been known for some time, the recent FY20 results confirmed full cover by EPRA earnings. RGL remains very positive about the prospects for high-quality regional offices with affordable rents and with its diversified portfolio of attractively yielding assets RGL will continue to maximise dividend distributions.
Companies: Regional REIT Ltd.
The Budget offered a clear picture of the state of the economy. Put simply, the economy will be 3% smaller in three years’ time than it would have been without the impact of the pandemic. However, it is forecast to return to pre-pandemic levels by mid-2022, six months earlier than previously thought. The OBR forecasts that the UK economy will grow by 4.1% in 2021, (lower than the 5.5% outlined in November 2020). It has set its GDP forecasts in 2022, 2023 and 2024 at 7.3%, 1.7% and 1.6%. Positively, we have a continuation of substantial support for various parts of the economy – totalling £350bn. The market may focus on two elements. Under the so-called “super-deduction scheme, businesses which invest in the next two years will be able to claim 130% of the cost against their tax bill. This is significant but also significant is the proposed increase in corporation tax on profits from 19% to 25% in 2023. This has material consequences. Looking that far ahead is not straightforward. The increased tax charge will inevitably impact ratings. This may not be a consideration currently but may become one as more FY2023 estimates are introduced. Closer to home, we have continued to see most results/updates in line with expectations. An increasing number of companies have restored dividends. M&A across a broad range of sectors also looks set to continue.
Companies: AMYT ARBB BPC BVC BEG BRSD BWNG CBOX CTG CLG CML CWK EYE ECHO EML ESC FBD FA/ GSF HTWS INSE JDG MACF MTW NESF NAVF NSF NBI OTMP PCF PPC QFI SAVE SEN SNX TGL UTL VLS WYN
Vp’s trading update confirms an in line conclusion to FY21 and highlights a further improvement in demand at the start of the new financial year. Revenues have recently returned to 95% of pre-COVID levels, comfortably ahead of the 89% we had factored in for FY22. Adjusting for the current run rate prompts a 12% upgrade to current year EPS forecasts. We see continued scope for outperformance against prudently positioned forecasts and believe the discount to peers fails to reflect Vp’s recovery potential and earnings quality.
Companies: Vp plc
The Berlin rent cap has disrupted the market, but with a continuing housing shortage and new investment curtailed, free-market rents and condominium prices continued to increase in FY20, driving continuing strong returns for Phoenix Spree Deutschland (PSD). As discussed in detail in our December initiation note, pending a resolution of the rent cap legal challenge, PSD has sought to mitigate the effects while maintaining strategic flexibility; a resolution, which PSD expects by mid-year, will determine the strategy for extracting the value embedded in its portfolio.
Companies: Phoenix Spree Deutschland Fund