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Sumo is trading strongly, with several drivers that could lead the company to outperform 2021 earnings expectations, in our view. Even based on conservative earnings expectations, we believe shares offer attractive value to growth.
Companies: Sumo Group Plc
IQE has announced it expects FY20 revenues to be c £178m. This is ahead of our estimates, which we revised upwards in November, reflecting outperformance in both the wireless and photonics segments. We have updated our FY20 forecasts. Given IQE’s leveraged business model, this results in a 64% uplift in EPS. Noting the uncertainty about the effect of a pandemic-related recession on the rate of smartphone sales growth, we leave our FY21 estimates unchanged for the time being.
Companies: IQE plc
ZOO’s trading update in advance of its March year-end suggests that visibility continues to improve, and major new client projects have continued to deliver. A combination of a material back-catalogue focus across the industry, a growing acceptance of cloud-based dubbing, and a very modest return to new content production have combined to produce a robust outcome for FY21E, and we upgrade estimates. Just as importantly, the outlook for FY22 and beyond continues to improve, giving management confidence to invest in expanding ZOO’s dubbing service into new markets.
Companies: ZOO Digital Group plc
Sopheon’s trading update for the end of 2020 shows that the historical weighting to Q4 for revenues again produced a strong end to the year, ahead of Q4 2019. Revenue is expected to total around $30.0m with Adjusted EBITDA of c. $5.6m. We reintroduce estimates for FY 2020E which reflect those numbers. The proportion of recurring revenue increased again during FY 2020E. That mix shift within strong sales bookings growth of 23% during the year means that much of the associated revenue will be recognised future years. With ongoing sales traction, we continue to see Sopheon as well-positioned with highly appropriate solutions which meet the needs of businesses to innovate and digitalise at a faster pace. Sopheon is proving itself highly capable of selling despite the Covid-19 challenges, and we believe the group’s products will become more relevant and more in demand precisely because of the race to digitalisation that Covid has so clearly accelerated.
Companies: Sopheon plc
MySale has delivered a striking turnaround in profitability with H1 FY21 EBITDA of A$2.5m up an impressive A$6.1m YOY. We believe this marked turnaround validates its AZN First strategy and signals the Group now has a robust and cash generative operating platform on which it can scale.
Companies: MySale Group plc
Interims to October are in line with the comfortable interim trading update and unchanged forecasts. Post period end, the group continued to benefit from evident momentum through the oversubscribed £49m placing, followed by the acquisition of Huddle. ARR increased 13% to £54.8m, including 7% organic growth; 60% of all new logo wins derived from outside the UK; and each territory and each segment (Assurance, Compliance, Collaboration) delivered growth. A £50m debt facility continues to fuel the M&A machine, and adds to the organic opportunities from the TAM of $3bn in Integrated Risk Management, where Ideagen has remained in Gartner’s Magic Quadrant since 2016. Despite 1H21 (1 May to 31 October) still suffering COVID influences (client decision-making and sales cycles), with temporary effects on organic growth, Ideagen powers on. As the driving force in establishment of the group, David Hornsby’s retirement represents the end of a chapter – but no change in executive capabilities and the strategic rationale for growth that Ideagen does so well. Target price 347p (280p).
Companies: Ideagen PLC
As a nation, we love knocking ourselves. However in truth, we’re actually a pretty pioneering bunch. For instance, the experts at Oxford University & AstraZeneca have developed one of the world’s 3 most important vaccines in double quick time. Plus, many other British firms are creating similar breakthrough Covid inventions, such as Kromek.
Companies: Kromek Group Plc
The Panoply has reported a very positive trading update for the Q3 to December and indicates that full year results for the year to March will be significantly ahead of expectations. The group won £15m of new contracts in Q3, including the significant assignment from the Planning Inspectorate announced at the November interims. This further demonstrates the successful development of the group, notably its expansion into healthcare and establishment of FutureGov and Foundry4 as full-service brands. In November we raised our FY21 Revenue and PBT forecasts by +5%/+10% to £44.5m/£4.9m and we further raise by +8% to £48.0m/£5.3m this morning. We choose to leave our FY22 estimates unchanged at this stage, but clearly the group has very strong momentum and we see clear scope to raise our forecasts as we progress through the year. We continue to view The Panoply as ideally placed to benefit from the structural tailwinds in digital transformation and, underpinned by our increased forecasts, raise our target price to 235p (was 220p).
Companies: Panoply Holdings Plc
Following Fonix’s IPO in October 2020, today’s H1 trading update demonstrates continued growth that is comfortably in line with management’s expectations. Total Payment Volume (TPV) has grown +18% in H1 to £123m, as Fonix has successfully executed on its strategy to grow with both new and existing customers, including the BBC Children in Need campaign in November where Fonix’s platform handled £13.9m of the total £40.1m of donations. Increased levels of customer activity have driven +21% growth in H1 gross profit to £5.8m, and Fonix is continuing to generate strong underlying cash flows that will amply cover the maiden interim dividend expected in March. We conservatively forecast FY21 gross profit growth of +13% to £11.2m, and H1 means that Fonix has already achieved 52% of our FY21 forecast. As Fonix continues to deliver on the investment case that we explained in depth in November, we expect our conservative FY21 and FY22 forecasts of +11-12% EBITDA and EPS growth could see upside, and even on conservative forecasts, Fonix looks undervalued on 15x 12m forward EV/EBITDA and an EFCF yield of 5%. This compares to AIM payment and finnCap Tech 40 peers trading on 12m forward EV/EBITDA of 20-28x with 11-26% EBITDA growth, and EFCF yields of 2-3%. With today’s reassuring announcement we upgrade our target price to 200p (4% EFCF yield or 20x FY22 EV/EBITDA), and look forward to interim results in February.
Companies: Fonix Mobile PLC
EMIS saw trading gradually improve through H220 to finish the year slightly ahead of expectations. The company continued to support customers in dealing with the pandemic, with the recently acquired Pinnacle Systems’ software now being used in the nationwide vaccination programme. Progress was also made in product development with the launch of the first EMIS-X analytics product. We maintain our forecasts.
Companies: EMIS Group plc
Sage Group released a good set of Q1 20/21 figures with organic recurring revenue growth of 4.7% in line with the full-year guidance (+3-5%). This performance was spread out across various cloud native software and essentially driven by the gain of new customers. Lastly, no deterioration in the churn rate is reassuring considering the continuing tough market conditions. All in all, Sage Group confirmed FY2020/21 guidance.
Companies: Sage Group plc
The Panoply’s update on trading for the three months ending 31 December 2020 confirms the group has enjoyed a successful third quarter and continues the trend of positive news flow from the group. Against the backdrop of COVID-19 driven macro-economic challenges, The Panoply has reported an acceleration of new business wins. In our view this further validates both the Panoply’s innovative business model and with operations now focussed on two full-stack brands, demonstrates the strategic value of the acquisitions made to date. Management has increased guidance on FY 21E performance, and we take the company’s cue and revise our revenue and adjusted EBITDA forecasts upwards by 8% and 10% respectively.
VR Education Holdings (VRE) expects FY20 revenue growth of around 38% to €1.42m. This was driven by substantial growth in ENGAGE revenue and its user base, with ENGAGE now accounting for over 40% of group revenue. While ENGAGE benefited from changes resulting from COVID, they also caused museum closures, which reduced Showcase Experience revenues. VRE has also outlined its medium-term outlook objectives for 2023 – 2025. Key targets include ENGAGE revenue of €10m, 500 active enterprise customers and 100K monthly users.
Companies: VR Education Holdings PLC
H1A delivered a very resilient performance given the backdrop of halted deliveries and reduced manufacturing capacity. Orders and shipments are resuming and a ramp up in activity levels is expected in H2. A cash outflow in H1A has been supported by new committed facilities and gross cash levels look set to support the business successfully through the second half and beyond.
Synairgen (SNG.L): Completion of recruitment for at home trial | Sensyne Health (SENS.L): Research agreement with The Royal Wolverhampton NHS Trust
Companies: Synairgen plc (SNG:LON)Sensyne Health Plc (SENS:LON)
