Company Description: Peak Fintech Group Inc. (Peak or “the Company”) is the parent company of a group of financial technology (Fintech) subsidiaries operating in China’s lending industry. Peak provides an investment vehicle for investors looking to participate in China’s Fintech industry. Peak’s subsidiaries use technology, analytics, and artificial intelligence (AI) to provide loans, help small and medium enterprises (SMEs) obtain loans, help lenders find clients, and also minimize lending risk. Peak accomplishes this through an ecosystem of lenders, borrowers, brokers, and other participants that have come together around its Cubeler Lending Hub platform. Investment Highlights: (1) NASDAQ listing imminent. Peak’s management believes that the NASDAQ listing will attract new tech-centric institutional shareholders. It expects the shares to begin trading on the NASDAQ soon. (2) Peak recently closes $52.6 million financing. The Company believes the financing will “unlock” new expansion and partnership opportunities, and new revenue streams, both inside and outside of China. (3) Peak releases Revenue & EBITDA guidance. It forecasts revenue of $104 million in 2021 with EBITDA of $12.5 million, ramping up to $624 million of revenue in 2023 with EBITDA of $155 million. (3) Model impacts. Due to the lower Q1/2021 revenue results, we reduced our 2021 revenue estimate to $81.5M from $86.1M. Incorporating Peak’s recent guidance, we have significantly increased our 2022 revenue estimate to $258.2M from $103.6M and $516.3M from $113.9M in 2023, approximately 85% and 83% of Peak’s guidance, respectively. (4) Share Consolidation: The share count has been adjusted to accommodate the 1-for-2 share consolidation that took effect on July 27. Financial Analysis & Valuation: (A) The revised revenue and EBITDA estimates for 2021-2023 are: 2021: Revenue $81.5 million; EBITDA $9.4 million; 2022: Revenue $258.2 million; EBITDA $47.6 million; 2023: Revenue $516.3 million; EBITDA $95.8 million. (B) To reflect increased confidence in the business, we have raised our revenue multiple to 5x from 4x, increased our EBITDA multiple to 12x from 10x, and raised the DCF terminal EBITDA multiple to 12x from 10x. We estimate an equal-weighted price per share target of $11.30. (C) We are increasing our one-year target price to $11.00 from $4.80 and maintaining our Speculative Buy rating.
30 Jul 2021
NASDAQ Listing & $100M Sales Guidance Fuels Peak’s H2/21
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NASDAQ Listing & $100M Sales Guidance Fuels Peak’s H2/21
Tenet Fintech Group Inc. (PKK:CNQ) | 0 0 0.0%
- Published:
30 Jul 2021 -
Author:
Chris Thompson -
Pages:
23 -
Company Description: Peak Fintech Group Inc. (Peak or “the Company”) is the parent company of a group of financial technology (Fintech) subsidiaries operating in China’s lending industry. Peak provides an investment vehicle for investors looking to participate in China’s Fintech industry. Peak’s subsidiaries use technology, analytics, and artificial intelligence (AI) to provide loans, help small and medium enterprises (SMEs) obtain loans, help lenders find clients, and also minimize lending risk. Peak accomplishes this through an ecosystem of lenders, borrowers, brokers, and other participants that have come together around its Cubeler Lending Hub platform. Investment Highlights: (1) NASDAQ listing imminent. Peak’s management believes that the NASDAQ listing will attract new tech-centric institutional shareholders. It expects the shares to begin trading on the NASDAQ soon. (2) Peak recently closes $52.6 million financing. The Company believes the financing will “unlock” new expansion and partnership opportunities, and new revenue streams, both inside and outside of China. (3) Peak releases Revenue & EBITDA guidance. It forecasts revenue of $104 million in 2021 with EBITDA of $12.5 million, ramping up to $624 million of revenue in 2023 with EBITDA of $155 million. (3) Model impacts. Due to the lower Q1/2021 revenue results, we reduced our 2021 revenue estimate to $81.5M from $86.1M. Incorporating Peak’s recent guidance, we have significantly increased our 2022 revenue estimate to $258.2M from $103.6M and $516.3M from $113.9M in 2023, approximately 85% and 83% of Peak’s guidance, respectively. (4) Share Consolidation: The share count has been adjusted to accommodate the 1-for-2 share consolidation that took effect on July 27. Financial Analysis & Valuation: (A) The revised revenue and EBITDA estimates for 2021-2023 are: 2021: Revenue $81.5 million; EBITDA $9.4 million; 2022: Revenue $258.2 million; EBITDA $47.6 million; 2023: Revenue $516.3 million; EBITDA $95.8 million. (B) To reflect increased confidence in the business, we have raised our revenue multiple to 5x from 4x, increased our EBITDA multiple to 12x from 10x, and raised the DCF terminal EBITDA multiple to 12x from 10x. We estimate an equal-weighted price per share target of $11.30. (C) We are increasing our one-year target price to $11.00 from $4.80 and maintaining our Speculative Buy rating.