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Research reports on TRANSALTA RENEWABLES INC
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Reports 2Q16 Results
10 Aug 16
TransAlta Renewables’s second quarter adjusted funds from operations of $55 mm was slightly below our $61 mm expectations. Since our last report, TransAlta Renewables’s share price is up 20% and we believe much of the easy money has been made. We retain our 12-month target price of $15.00/share and, with our estimated 12-month total return of 12%, we maintain our Outperform ranking.
Reports 1Q16; Beats Estimates
29 Apr 16
Impact: Positive. The Company reported a solid first quarter with EBITDA of $114 mm (FCC: $103 mm) and cash available for distribution (CAFD) of $82 mm (FCC: $76 mm). In the quarter, TransAlta Renewables acquired an economic interest in certain of TransAlta Corporation’s assets in Ontario and Quebec. The Company’s South Hedland power project continues to advance and is expected to be completed on schedule and on budget in mid-2017. TransAlta Renewables has left its FY2016 guidance unchanged, with an EBITDA range of $365 mm to $390 mm (FCCe: $363 mm). Although we have reduced our 12-month target price to $15.00/share, we have maintained our Outperform ranking.
REPORTS 1Q16; BEATS ESTIMATES
28 Apr 16
Impact: Positive. The Company reported a solid first quarter with EBITDA of $114 mm (FCC: $103) and cash available for distribution (CAFD) of $82 mm (FCC: $76). Comparable EBITDA and CAFD increased $59 mm and $50 mm, respectively, y/y. The increase from 1Q15 was a result of incremental cash flows from TransAlta Renewables' acquisitions in Canada and Australia and higher wind volumes in western Canada and at Wyoming wind. Earnings were adversely affected by the strengthening Canadian dollar, lowering C$ revenue earned from Australian and U.S. assets.
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Fighting the waves
25 Oct 16
Management action in response to a tough trading climate and falling profits should contribute to a sound recovery in profits next year. Following share price weakness, the group is valued at a substantial discount to both the broking market leader Clarkson and to other peers. Meanwhile, if the dividend can be held, the shares offer a well above-average yield, pending an eventual improvement in trading conditions.
21 Oct 16
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FY17 expectations unchanged. Interim dividend maintained
25 Oct 16
Interims reflect tough markets which impacted Technical. Shipbroking delivered a resilient result and Logistics has performed well. The interim dividend has been held at 9.0p. The group anticipate an improvement in H2. The Board’s expectations for the year are unchanged based upon the strength of the order book due in H2, its ongoing market coverage and the benefits of action taken previously. We have retained our FY2017 PBT forecast of £8.7m and a maintained dividend. We reiterate our Buy and adjust our TP to 450p.
Doing things differently
25 Oct 16
Growing pains have impacted on its operational performance (EBIT margins 5.8% FY15 vs 12.2% FY13) and the HSS Hire valuation is at distressed levels (price to book 0.4x vs 1.3x at the time of the float). As the top-line catches up with the expanded cost base and the roll-out of the NDEC leads to greater efficiencies, margins and returns will rebound. Historical experience has shown that price to book ratios typically match these improvements (see Ashtead FY08-FY15, price to book expanded +196%). Therefore, we see scope for material upside in the share price as the expected operational recovery to progress. Our 12 month target of 115p equates to a 0.8x price to net operating assets
Risks discounted leaving significant upside
18 Oct 16
FY 2016 sales grew strongly at +22% but EPS growth lagged at +3% (our revised forecast -1%) as staff attrition and significant investment in new services held back profitability. Conversion of profit into cash improved significantly, at 240% in H2, as shorter payment terms and a lower level of extensions also benefited. We make no major changes to our forecasts and reiterate our view that Utilitywise is at the forefront of a changing energy market, supported by investment in innovative technology. The current valuation is entirely focused on the short-term challenges and ignores the growth potential supported by the new services.