Stifel FirstEnergy Morning Research Package

Birchcliff Energy (BIR-TSX); BUY, C$4.60 ― Reports unaudited Q4 results & 2019 reserves | Bonterra Energy (BNE-TSX); HOLD, C$4.75― Rolling out 2020 guidance and 2019 year-end reserves | Mullen Group (MTL-TSX); HOLD, C$8.50― An OFS company no more | Pine Cliff Energy (PNE-TSX); HOLD, C$0.15― 2020 guidance and 2019 year-end reserves | Precision Drilling (PD-TSX); BUY, C$3.75― FCF yields of 31% in 2020e and 2021e | TC Energy (TRP-TSX); BUY, C$79.00― In-line quarter, but a bit more growth capital

Chipping away at debt repayment

 Bonterra announced 3Q19 results which were modestly behind both GMPFE and consensus expectations.  Production for the quarter came in at 12,136 boe/d, shy of both GMPFE (12,678 boe/d) and consensus (12,544 boe/d), as the company continued to deal with the impact of shut in volumes due to both thirdparty infrastructure maintenance and price deterioration.  Funds flow of $22.6 mm ($0.68/sh) was below both GMPFE’s call for $24.1 mm ($0.72/sh), and the Street at $23.8 mm ($0.72/sh). Unsurpri

Announces 1Q19 results, Debt reduction remains primary focus in near term

Production of 12,020 boe/d underwhelmed the consensus call of 12,785 boe/d, as production was negatively impacted by 560 boe/d of shut-ins, primarily due to well freeze-offs in February.

3Q18 trails estimates, 2019 appearing more challenging with crude oil differential impacts

Bonterra reported 3Q18 production of 13,043 boe/d, in line with GMPFE expectations. Production was down q/q as the company was subjected to significant maintenance work to the tune of roughly ~500 boe/d.

Transferring coverage: Estimates reinstated

With this publication, following an analyst transition, we are transferring coverage of Bonterra Energy Corp. During this transition period, Bonterra posted 2Q18 results that were ahead of expectations on both a production and cash flow basis. In fact, the company posted its highest cash flow netback since 2Q15 (nearly $30.00/boe). Despite a more active than expected capital program and normal course dividend payouts, Bonterra managed to pay down debt by $8.8 mm, bringing its run-rate D/CF down

1Q18 results

1Q18 production of 13,051 boe/d was in line with GMP FE estimate of 13,083 boe/d and consensus of 13,093 boe/d. CFPS (f.d.) of $0.84/shr during the quarter was slightly behind our estimate of $0.88/shr and consensus of $0.89/shr. The company spent $36.2mm on E&D in 1Q18 (GMPFE at $30mm), which included drilling 15 (14.9 net) wells. BNE’s capital program was front-end loaded with capital in 1Q18 totalling ~50% of planned 2018e expenditures. Management noted that April volumes averaged ~14,600

Second Quarter Report Contains No Surprises

Bonterra’s second quarter production volumes were within 1% of both our estimate and the consensus, although increased to over 13,000 boe/d early in the third quarter as new wells were brought on stream and a portion of previously shut-in production was reactivated. Cash flow was modestly ahead of expectations due to lower royalties in the period, while both operating and transportation costs came in as expected. Guidance remains unchanged, with 2016e capital spending of ~$40 mm and production e

2Q16e Quarterly Preview

Some Recovery on Segmented Cash Flow Generation Over Q1 Though Still Down 56% Y/Y. In aggregate, the Intermediate, Mid, and Small Cap groups are expected to generate 2Q16e cash flow of $1,281 mm, $183 mm, and $53 mm, or $1.517 billion in total, that while depressed relative to the same period last year (~$2.647 billion combined), is up 17% sequentially from the prior quarter, largely on the strength of crude oil price recovery in the period. Severely weak natural gas pricing picture markedly rev

ANNOUNCES ~10% REDUCTION TO BORROWING BASE

Impact: Neutral. The 10% reduction to Bonterra's credit facility to $380 mm is within our prior expectations given current commodity prices, and remains sufficient for the Company to execute on its previously outlined $40 mm capital budget while also paying down debt in 2016e.

MANAGEMENT UPDATE

We had the pleasure of hosting the Management team from Bonterra Energy to run through the Company's latest corporate presentation. Management noted at US$45.00/bbl WTI the Company is more than comfortable with its current dividend of $0.10 per month, while also reiterating plans to spend ~$40 mm of capital to keep production relatively flat at the 12,500 boe/d level. As before, Management continues to manage its production levels through the current downturn to ensure long term value creation.

Bonterra Energy Reports 1Q16 Results, Cash Flow Ahead on Lower Costs

First quarter production volumes were in line with our estimate, although slightly ahead of consensus, with a handful of wells drilled and completed in late 2015 that were brought on stream in the period.

Intermediates, Mid Caps & Small Caps

With this publication we briefly summarize our projections for 1Q16e quarterly results for the Junior E&P (Intermediate, Mid & Small Cap) segments of our coverage universe

Domestic E&P Statistical Package and FD&A Review

With this publication we highlight various metrics and statistics forthcoming from yearend reserve books for our Domestic E&P coverage universe (Integrateds, Large Cap, Oilsands, Intermediate, Mid Cap, and Small Cap). Similar charts for YE2014 reserves can be found in our Statistical Package dated April 7, 2015.

Intermediates, Mid Caps & Small Cap Commodity Price Update

With this publication we highlight forecast revisions associated with our commodity price update (Natural Gas Update; Crude Oil Update), roughly characterized by near term lifts in crude oil prices concurrent with a reduction to portended 2016e and 2017e natural gas pricing outlooks. While there are a few ranking changes on mostly non-material moves to valuations, implied returns within the group on the whole are far less than postulated only a few months ago, reflective of resurgent equity pric

Year-end Results Contain no Surprises

Fourth quarter production volumes were previously reported with the Company’s year-end reserve release in February, with no other surprises included in the year- end results. Recall, Bonterra previously reported year-end reserves which were up ~13% on a 2P basis, while NPVs were up ~4% impacted by lower commodity prices. Management reiterated plans for capital spending of $40 mm in 2016e, with production expected to average ~12,500 boe/d. We have made very few changes to our forecast coming off

Jubilee Metals - Operational Update Q3 FY2024

Jubilee today reports its Q3 and third quarter operational results from its expanding operations in Zambia (copper) and South Africa (chrome and PGM). South Africa is on a growth trajectory with record chrome production of 409kt in the quarter (Q2 FY2024 381kt) and a monthly record in March of 145kt and production YTD of 1.13Mt (0.94Mt). Jubilee is well underway to its annual target capacity of 2,1Mt/yr especially with the new 300kt/yr chrome plant at Thutse expected to be operational in August

Trinity Exploration and Production - Reserves Reduction but Solid Core Business

Trinity has announced a c28% reduction to its 2P reserves following a YE23 review. Despite the decrease in the Company’s 2P reserves, Trinity’s core business remains robust, with a reserves/production ratio of >12.5 years at YE23. Whilst there is significant potential for growth within the current portfolio, this will be difficult to unlock from the current balance sheet and we believe further financing will be required. We update our target price to 76p (from 202p), a c85% premium to the curren

I3 Energy (I3E LN) - Canada royalty assets sale

I3 has announced the sale of the majority of its royalty interests in Canada, for US$24.8m cash. This allows the company to fully repay amounts drawn on its debt facility and create a working capital surplus, giving I3 significant additional funding flexibility going forward

Morning Note – 16 April 2024

Valeura Energy (TSX: VLE): Three exploration wells deliver three discoveries

• The Nong Yao-13 exploration well in the new Nong Yao D area that was targeting multiple zones has encountered >30 feet of new oil play across several new shallow intervals which have not been produced elsewhere on the concession. These reservoirs are believed to be recurring across the Nong Yao D area. • The drilling result confirms that oil has successfully migrated into this area of the block (a factor that was seen to be a risk in the Nong Yao D area) and open the opportunity for further a

NextSource Materials - Initiation

NextSource is uniquely positioned to build a leading vertically integrated position, ex China, in the supply of Lithium-ion battery anode material which is essential for the Energy Transition. The company is commissioning phase 1 of its world-class Molo graphite mine in Madagascar and is in the final permitting process for its first Battery Anode Facility (BAF) to be located in Mauritius. The company is backed by Vision Blue, established by Sir Mick Davis, former CEO of Xstrata. On our calculat

DEC FY23 Results Update

DEC reported FY23 results which were in line with expectations and announced the acquisition of joint venture assets from Oaktree along with an updated capital allocation framework.

Morning Note – 15 April 2024

Oil & Gas - Cavendish sector note

Chariot, Energean, Touchstone Exploration, Longboat Energy, Hartshead Resources, BP, Helix Exploration, PetroTal, Pantheon Resources, Caspian Sunrise, Petrofac, DNO ASA, Valeura Energy, Aker BP, Var Energi Source: FactSet, weekly change 08/04/24-12/04/24 Oil rose as Israel braced for a possible attack from Iran, a development that would threaten major disruptions in a region that accounts for a third of the world’s crude output. An assault is expected to come as soon as the next 48 hours, which

Clean Power Hydrogen - New customers and licensees circling…

CPH2 has released FY23 results with the company completing the period with a slightly lower cash outflow from operations and a higher cash balance than forecast. Looking ahead, with a new and improved technical and engineering team, the company has committed to completing Factory Acceptance Testing of its first MW scale electrolyser, the 0.5MW MFE110, within the next three months. In our view, this will be a major milestone for the company which will demonstrate that its unique technology can be

Alien Metals - Hancock Project, Mining Lease Granted

Alien today reports intraday that the Western Australian Government has granted a mining licence for the Hancock iron ore project for a 21-year term. The granting of the mining licence is the latest milestone delivered by Alien as it advances the project towards development and production.

SP Angel . Morning View . Copper prices hold higher as China processing fees fall below $0/t amid low feedstock availability

Union Jack Oil (UJO LN) - Wressle update

Union Jack has released an update on its Wressle asset, reporting maturing production from Wressle-1, alongside progress for significant further development activities on the field going forward.

PROGRESSIVE: Pharos Energy: Delivering on operations and balance sheet

Pharos Energy reported FY23 results on 27 March. Group net production of 6,508 boepd (FY22: 7,166 boepd) was in line with guidance, assisted by successful development drilling in Vietnam and exploration successes in Egypt. Pharos’s strong cash generation resulted in a stronger balance sheet, with net debt reduced to US$6.6m (from US$28.9m at the end of 2022) and cash balances totalling US$32.6m. This left the group free to return more cash to shareholders, including a 10% increase in dividends,

Union Jack Oil+ (UJO, House Stock at 23p) - Wressle update