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  • 29 May 19

Announces 1Q19 results

Leucrotta announced 1Q19 results which were in line with both GMPFE and consensus expectations (FFO $0.02 vs. GMPFE $0.02 vs. consensus $0.02) in what was a relatively quiet quarter operationally.

Companies: LEUCROTTA EXPLORATION
  • 01 May 19

FLASH: Provides operational update

Leucrotta provided an update regarding its 8-22 (B08-22-081-14W6) Upper Montney test well at Mica.

Companies: LEUCROTTA EXPLORATION
  • 08 Mar 19

Reports 2018 reserve book

Leucrotta announced its 2018 reserve results, which is similar to prior years. Conversion of resource to tangible production and cash flow continues to be secondary to preservation/expansion of large resource footprint, and the careful delineation of acreage position. As such, PDP based performance measures are underwhelming, undeveloped 1P/2P categories are better, though will still trial its peers to a degree in some efficiency aspects.

Companies: LEUCROTTA EXPLORATION
  • 28 Nov 18

Reports 3Q18 results, activity to slow with adherence to cash flow budget ahead

Leucrotta announced financial and operating results slightly behind our forecast, with lower liquids production, higher differentials and royalties cresting above a lower unit cash cost element which was a positive.

Companies: LEUCROTTA EXPLORATION
  • 18 Jun 18

FLASH: Positive initial result from Upper Montney well

This morning, LXE announced the initial results of its 10-08 Upper Montney well at Two Rivers. The well was cleaned-up over a ten day period and on the last day recorded a rate of 1,842 boe/d, which included 685 b/d (42 degree light oil), 5.6 mmcf/d of natural gas (1.3% H2S) and an estimated 224 b/d of recoverable NGL’s. Management noted that the well was also producing significant water and frac fluid during the test period which was expected for the Upper Montney in the region.

Companies: LEUCROTTA EXPLORATION
  • 30 May 18

First quarter results ahead of expectations

LXE reported average 1Q18 production of 4,180 boe/d (27% liquids), which was comfortably ahead of the GMPFE estimate of ~3,567 boe/d which management attributed to flush production during the quarter. Production volumes were up ~10% QoQ. Cash flow of $6.4 mm ($0.03/share) was also ahead of our estimate of $3.3mm ($0.02/share) due to higher production and lower than forecasted operating costs. The company also had royalty credits that resulted in no royalties paid during 1Q18. During the quarter, LXE spent $11.5 mm net largely on DCT&E, which was in line with our forecast of $12 mm. As of quarter-end, LXE had $13.6 mm in cash and working capital and an undrawn $20 mm credit facility. Between the available working capital, credit facility and estimated 18e cash flow, LXE has enough capital to execute its 2018e capital program. Looking forward, LXE expects production in 2Q18 to be impacted by ~500 boe/d (shut-ins and maintenance) and the company reiterated its 2018 average production guidance of 3,600 boe/d (in line with GMPFE). We have updated our model to reflect the quarterly results. With an implied 26% return, we continue to have a BUY rating on Leucrotta.

Companies: LEUCROTTA EXPLORATION
  • 25 Apr 18

No surprises from year-end results

LXE reported average 4Q17 production of 3,802 boe/d (34% liquids). This was in line with pre-released volumes of ~3,802 boe/d (when reserves were released) and production volumes are up ~22% QoQ. Cash flow of $4.5mm ($0.02/share) was ahead of our estimate of $3.3mm ($0.02/share) due to higher liquids production and lower than forecasted operating and transportation costs.

Companies: LEUCROTTA EXPLORATION
  • 27 Feb 18

Drilling at Doe/Mica results in higher y/y reserve bookings

Reserves were up 258% y/y on a PDP basis to 4.6mmboe, 47% on a 1P basis to 15.1mmboe and 63% on a 2P basis to 37.1mmboe. Increased bookings were due to ongoing delineation drilling on its Doe/Mica Montney core area and higher per well bookings (Lower Montney Turbidite oil window moved from 650mboe to 855mboe). Based on managements stated 4Q17 production volumes of 3,802 boe/d, this represents a 1P RLI of 10.8 years and a 2P RLI of 26.7 years.  We calculate 2P Future Development Costs of $167.6mm, which is ~13x Leucrotta’s 2018e estimated cash flow of $12.6mm (strip). Based off total spending this resulted in 1P FD&A costs of $19.61/boe and 2P FD&A costs of $10.67/boe, including FDC. This drives recycle ratios of 0.4x 1P and 0.8x 2P based on a 2017e cash flow netback of $8.13/boe.  We have updated our model and NAV to reflect the reserve report and operations update. With an implied 47% return, we continue to have a BUY rating on Leucrotta.

Companies: LEUCROTTA EXPLORATION
  • 23 Jan 18

Update on Lower Montney drilling activities

The 9-33 oil well was drilled and completed late last year using 51 fracs compared to the previous design of 28 fracs. The well had a reported IP30 rate of 1,351 boe/d (45%), which is 131% above type curve and well ahead of previous Lower Montney Turbidite wells. Management also stated that its 4-12 liquids-rich gas well that was completed using 49 fracs had an IP90 rate of 685 boe/d (30% liquids), which is tracking below type curve of 845 boe/d (30% liquids). This was largely attributed to a mechanical failure during completion that resulted in a material number of fracs being ineffective. Management believes only about 20 of the fracs were contributing. In 2018, the company will focus on delineation and well productivity. As a result, the company will drill 2 vertical wells to confirm Turbidite reservoir and 3 – 4 Hz wells to extend the proven productivity of the Lower Montney Turbidite play over LXE lands. As at 2017YE LXE had an estimated ~$19mm in positive working capital and an undrawn $20mm credit facility. Management expects to complete its 2018 capital program with cash flow and cash on hand. We have updated our model to reflect the operations update. With an implied 30% return we continue to have a BUY rating on LXE.

Companies: LEUCROTTA EXPLORATION
  • 29 Nov 17

No surprises from 3Q17 results

LXE reported average 3Q17 production of 3,123 boe/d (27% liquids). This was in line with pre-released volumes of ~3,000 boe/d and production volumes are up ~19% QoQ. Management continues to expect volumes to rise and forecasts 4Q17 average production of 3,600 boe/d (30% liquids) vs previous GMPFE forecasts at 3,369 boe/d (28% liquids) and the street at 3,280 boe/d. CFPS (f.d.) of $0.01/share was slightly ahead of our estimate of $0.00/share due to lower than forecasted operating and transportation costs. However, reported 3Q cash flow was in line with the street estimates of $0.01/share. During the quarter, LXE spent $16.3 mm largely on DCT&E, which was in line with our forecast of $15 mm. As at Sept 30, 2017, LXE has $29.2 mm in cash and working capital (previously stated ~$28 mm) and an undrawn $20 mm credit facility. Management estimates that it will have ~$18 mm in positive working capital at year-end (previously stated ~$20 mm) and an undrawn bank line. We have updated our model to reflect 3Q17 results and 4Q17 production guidance. With an implied 25% return, we continue to have a BUY rating on LXE.

Companies: LEUCROTTA EXPLORATION
  • 24 Oct 17

3Q17 preview and operations update

This morning, Leucrotta released a Fall operations update focused on its ongoing Montney activity. The biggest news item from the release was an update on longer-term production data from its A8-22 Lower Montney well. This well had an IP90 rate of 838 boe/d (40% oil & liquids). Given that A8-22 has both a higher IP90 rate (type curve of 521 boe/d) and a shallower decline (IP30 was 996 boe/d), we view these results as encouraging. 3Q17 production of ~3,000 boe/d (27% liquids) is largely in line with GMPFE estimates of 2,869 boe/d (28% liquids) and the street at 2,809 boe/d (29% liquids). Currently, LXE is producing around 3,200 boe/d however, management expects volumes to rise through 4Q17. As at September 30, 2017, the company estimates it has $28 mm in cash and working capital and an undrawn $20 mm credit facility. Management estimates that at year-end it will have ~$20mm in working capital (vs GMPFEe of $21mm) and an undrawn bank line. We have made some minor changes to our RENAV (from $2.21/sh to $2.54/sh) to account for this morning’s press release. We still consider our NAV assumptions conservative since over time LXE will have the opportunity to: 1) lower well costs using pad drilling and 2) decrease risk through successful delineation drilling. We have also updated our model to reflect 3Q17 financial and operating results.

Companies: LEUCROTTA EXPLORATION
  • 26 Jul 16

2Q16e Quarterly Preview

Some Recovery on Segmented Cash Flow Generation Over Q1 Though Still Down 56% Y/Y. In aggregate, the Intermediate, Mid, and Small Cap groups are expected to generate 2Q16e cash flow of $1,281 mm, $183 mm, and $53 mm, or $1.517 billion in total, that while depressed relative to the same period last year (~$2.647 billion combined), is up 17% sequentially from the prior quarter, largely on the strength of crude oil price recovery in the period. Severely weak natural gas pricing picture markedly reversed into summer, market likely to ignore financials for natural gas producers and look ahead to winter and formalization of sell-side 2018e estimates in coming months. Spot AECO natural gas prices recently crested C$2.60/mcf, and with a reasonable alignment of previously distressed NE BC Stn2 differentials, augmented by a withdrawal expected next week, view the market psyche as constructive and looking ahead, with the analogy that this market is shaping up to mirror 2012 still holding. That said, with crude oil poised to retest support levels, combined with strong stock price performance broadly observed YTD, we would characterize sentiment as slightly pessimistic in the near-term which could reduce or unwind momentum-based investment strategies that have worked thus far in 2016.

Companies: AAV ARX BTE BNP CPG ERF POU PEY PGF PWT PSK VII TOU VET WCP BNE CJ CR DEE JOY KEL LTS NVA PPY PMT PNE RRX RMP SRX SGY TOG TET ATU CKE GXE IKM LXE MQL PRQ SPE SKX TVE TVL YO ZAR

  • 23 Jun 16

Intermediates, Mid Caps & Small Cap Commodity Price Update

With this publication we highlight forecast revisions associated with our commodity price update (Natural Gas Update; Crude Oil Update), reaffirming a view of commodity price recovery in 2017e. In the interim until then, 2016e Canadian oil price realizations are up ~11% in the synthetic and Edmonton Light streams, with heavy WCS crude up ~20% which is amplified by Canadian oilsands output curtailments. While 2016e Canadian natural gas prices are projected to be ~20% lower, we expect much of this effect to be mitigated by strong hedging positions this year, and remain focused on price recovery next year with very strong increases reflected in both the strip and our revised forecast. Overall, broad valuations are flat to slightly higher coming out of this exercise, with oil/ liquids levered entities observing the highest 2017e CFO uptick. We remain constructive on the space, though the market will need to look past a trough of potentially weak pricing this summer.

Companies: ARX CPG ERF TOU POU CJ PPY SRX LXE

  • 27 May 16

Reports 1Q16 Results

Leucrotta’s first quarter results came in as expected, with little to no new operational information embedded in the release. Recall, during the period the Company announced encouraging results from its 8-22 light oil well at Mica along with a successful liquids-rich delineation well at East Doe, both in the Lower Montney turbidite play. With no material changes to our forecast, we have maintained both our Outperform ranking and target price of $2.00 per share.

Companies: LEUCROTTA EXPLORATION
  • 26 May 16

REPORTS 1Q16 RESULTS

Impact - neutral with first quarter results in line with expectations and nothing new in terms of operational information

Companies: LEUCROTTA EXPLORATION

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  • 10 Jun 19

Comprehensive update note

The purpose of this note is to provide an overview of the implications for i3 Energy’s forthcoming summer-2019 three-well drilling programme, to provide context for the forthcoming commercial and regulatory milestones that i3 Energy could be expected to achieve under a success case scenario and to provide the market with our fair value estimate for i3 Energy.

Companies: I3 Energy
  • 13 Jun 19

SP Angel – Oil & Gas View

Diversified Gas & Oil (DGOC): Quarterly Dividend | Ascent Resources* (AST): Permitting Update

Companies: Diversified Gas & Oil Ascent Resources

  • 11 Apr 19

Quarterly Research Outlook

We’re just over three months in to 2019 and we’ve seen a 10% UK market rally, retracing much of the Q4 decline, such is the nature of fickle market sentiment. That said, many of the issues we wrote about three months ago that were impacting markets remain: notably Brexit, trade wars, geopolitics and global monetary policy. The 2019 rally thus far feels somewhat fragile, with competing forces of optimism on a potential trade deal which could underpin the rally, against the deterioration in underlying economic data that could ultimately undermine the recent market gains. In this context, we look at what the lead indicators and the market are telling us about the industrial cycle and the stocks most exposed to various industrial trends. The Q4 derating in short cycle industrials and autos had been vicious and while these sectors have seen a more solid footing in 2019, with earnings downgrades being priced in, it will likely take a trough in lead indicators before short cycle stocks can start to perform again and re-rate relative to the market.

Companies: ARS CYAN HYR LIT SOM ABBY AMS AMER ANX ATYM AVON BLVN PIER BUR CGS CAML CALL CSRT TIDE DTG DEMG EMR FPO FST GTLY GENL GOR GRI GEEC HDY HMI HAYD HEAD HILS HTG HUR IBPO INDI JHD JOG KEYS KCT KGH LAM LOK MACF MNO MANO MOD MKLW OXIG PCA PANR PARK PGM PHC PMO RBW RMM REDD RSW RNO RKH RBGP ROR SUS SCPA SHG SOLG TRAK TRI VNET VTC ZOO ZTF

  • 23 May 19

LIBERUM: Sirius Minerals* - On the cusp of a major de-risking event

The completion of $825m in equity and convertible financing now puts Sirius on the cusp of finalising the funding package for its WoodSmith mine. The company plans to issue a $500m high yield bond in the coming months which will unlock the remaining $2.5bn credit facility from JP Morgan, needed to complete the project.

Companies: Sirius Minerals
  • 11 Jun 19

SP Angel – Oil & Gas View

Amerisur Resources (AMER): Operational Update | Phoenix Global Resources (PGR): Q1 Operational Update | UK Oil & Gas (UKOG): Production Update

Companies: AMER PGR UKOG

  • 13 Jun 19

Cenkos: Salt Lake Potash Ltd - Lake Way 200ktpa Scoping Study

Salt Lake Potash has released a scoping study for a commercial scale SOP project at Lake Way. The Study is based on production of 200,000tpa of premium grade SOP (53% K2O) with a mine life of over 20 years. Estimated pre-production capital of A$237m and LOM opex of A$264/t (US$185/t) FOB. Estimated Post Tax NPV8% of A$381m, IRR of 27% and payback of 3.2 years with first production forecast for Q4/20. Salt Lake Potash raised A$20.25m at A$0.54 (29.8p) along with a 1 for 4 option exercisable at A$0.85 before June 2023 and are in advanced discussions with a debt provider for a debt funding package which will support funding for the Lake Way Project to first production next year. With the project financing advanced, permitting progressing and a pipeline of further growth beyond Lake Way the potential upside is significant. As such we have increased our near-term valuation to 60p per share.

Companies: Salt Lake Potash
  • 27 Mar 19

Rally seen in the first quarter stalls

Parliamentary and Brexit developments continue to hold centre stage, although the precise path forward remains as unclear as ever. The uncertainty over Brexit, worries over a possible slowdown in the US and the outlook for global economic growth generally have all contributed to the recent falls in markets. While the rally seen since the start of the year has petered out, most indices have still made progress. In Share News & Views we comment on Bloomsbury Publishing, Bonhill Group*, Braemar Shipping Services*, Burford, Clarkson, LightwaveRF*, Marshall Motor Holdings and Synectics*.

Companies: AOR APC BONH BMS CTG CRPR DMTR ESC EUSP FDM FA/ LWRF LSAI NKTN PCF SNX TCN VRE W7L

  • 20 May 19

Embarking on the next growth phase

Iofina is embarking on its next growth phase, seeking to raise up to £7.5m via a placing, subscription and open offer to allow it to roll out its next iodine plant, develop new products and strengthen its balance sheet. In addition, Southern Rock has agreed to convert 75% of its $5.6m debt to equity, which when combined with the equity raise will materially reduce the company’s debt burden and put it in a strong position to benefit from rising iodine prices.

Companies: Iofina
  • 20 May 19

FLASH: Resetting guidance down

1Q19 production was 3.7 mboe/d (GMP FEe: 3.4 mboe/d). NW Gemsa was 2.1 mboe/d (GMP FEe: 1.8 mboe/d), Meseda was 826 bbl/d (GMP FEe: 848 bbl/d) and Morocco was 761 boe/d (GMP FEe: 763 boe/d).

Companies: Sdx Energy
  • 07 Jun 19

KEFI Minerals - Final government approvals granted

After two years lost to a state of emergency in Ethiopia, a new political order has emerged that has allowed KEFI to progress Tulu Kapi to the point of development. All federal government consents have now been received (including from the National Bank of Ethiopia, Ethiopia’s central bank). This now allows KEFI to trigger the first equity instalment of US$11.4m from its Ethiopian partners into the project, which will fund detailed engineering & procurement (including long lead items), allow community resettlement and defer debt funding until FY20. Importantly, however, it also enables the infrastructure finance bond programme to proceed, such that, on the current timeline, commissioning of the plant is anticipated to start by end-2020, with first gold in April 2021 and full production by mid-2021.

Companies: Kefi Minerals
  • 13 Jun 19

Tapping into ANS mineral potential

KEFI Minerals is an AIM-listed gold and base metals mineral exploration/development company advancing DFS stage Tulu Kapi Gold Project in Western Ethiopia as well as a set of precious and base metals exploration permits in Saudi Arabia.

Companies: Kefi Minerals
  • 16 Apr 19

FLASH: Well test result in Mexico

The Zama 2ST1 encountered 873 feet of gross oil bearing reservoir with a net-to-gross ratio of c. 70%, in line with expectations. The vertical well flowed on test a combined oil rate of 7,426 bbl/d from two separate flow tests over a total perforated interval of 248 feet. The main flow period was for c. 4 days and there was no pressure depletion of the reservoir. As planned, rates were restricted due to limited drawdown to prevent sand production.

Companies: Premier Oil
  • 09 May 19

OBA pipeline – cash flow and valuation scenarios

Amerisur is an E&P company with assets onshore Colombia. The company achieved production of 5.4mbbl/d in 2018 generating US$34.0m of EBITDA, and has an ongoing 2019 drilling programme aimed at adding resources and production volumes.

Companies: Amerisur Resources
  • 24 May 19

Cenkos: Diversified Gas & Oil Plc - Operational update

Last week, Diversified Gas & Oil (DGO) provided an update on its Appalachian Basin operations. Q1/19 net production averaged approximately 69,000boepd, with the Company's Smarter Well Management Programme continuing to deliver results, increasing April production to over 70,000boepd (90,000boepd including production from the HG Energy II assets). Ongoing integration of the HG Energy II wells into the portfolio is proceeding as planned, delivering net production of over 20,000boepd at the end of April. Strong margins of 55% in Q1/19 led to US$47m in debt reduction payments prior to the March dividend payment and amounts held in escrow for the HG Energy II acquisition. Net debt to adjusted-EBITDA remains unchanged from year-end at 1.8x, with the Company having a current liquidity of over US$330m. This morning, the Company announced the addition of David J Turner Jr as an Independent Non-Executive Director and Chairman of the Board's Audit Committee. We reiterate our BUY recommendation and maintain our price target at 169p/share

Companies: Diversified Gas & Oil
  • 03 Jun 19

Cenkos: Plexus Holdings - JV to expand production wellhead offering

Plexus has announced that it has entered into a joint venture called Plexus Pressure Control Limited (PPC) with Bell Valves Limited (BEL), a long-established supplier of high integrity valves, actuators and controls. Plexus is continuing to make solid progress in developing its market potential in high-value surface production projects following the sale of the surface jack-up rig exploration wellhead rental business to TFMC. The JV will enable Plexus to offer oil and gas producers a full package of widely field proven POS-GRIP surface production wellheads, xmas trees and valves, which is a strategic move that Plexus has been pursuing for some time. The balance sheet remains strong with forecast FY19 net cash of £9.8m post the recent £1m special interim dividend.

Companies: Plexus