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  • 29 May 19

Announces 1Q19 results

Leucrotta announced 1Q19 results which were in line with both GMPFE and consensus expectations (FFO $0.02 vs. GMPFE $0.02 vs. consensus $0.02) in what was a relatively quiet quarter operationally.

Companies: LEUCROTTA EXPLORATION
  • 01 May 19

FLASH: Provides operational update

Leucrotta provided an update regarding its 8-22 (B08-22-081-14W6) Upper Montney test well at Mica.

Companies: LEUCROTTA EXPLORATION
  • 08 Mar 19

Reports 2018 reserve book

Leucrotta announced its 2018 reserve results, which is similar to prior years. Conversion of resource to tangible production and cash flow continues to be secondary to preservation/expansion of large resource footprint, and the careful delineation of acreage position. As such, PDP based performance measures are underwhelming, undeveloped 1P/2P categories are better, though will still trial its peers to a degree in some efficiency aspects.

Companies: LEUCROTTA EXPLORATION
  • 28 Nov 18

Reports 3Q18 results, activity to slow with adherence to cash flow budget ahead

Leucrotta announced financial and operating results slightly behind our forecast, with lower liquids production, higher differentials and royalties cresting above a lower unit cash cost element which was a positive.

Companies: LEUCROTTA EXPLORATION
  • 18 Jun 18

FLASH: Positive initial result from Upper Montney well

This morning, LXE announced the initial results of its 10-08 Upper Montney well at Two Rivers. The well was cleaned-up over a ten day period and on the last day recorded a rate of 1,842 boe/d, which included 685 b/d (42 degree light oil), 5.6 mmcf/d of natural gas (1.3% H2S) and an estimated 224 b/d of recoverable NGL’s. Management noted that the well was also producing significant water and frac fluid during the test period which was expected for the Upper Montney in the region.

Companies: LEUCROTTA EXPLORATION
  • 30 May 18

First quarter results ahead of expectations

LXE reported average 1Q18 production of 4,180 boe/d (27% liquids), which was comfortably ahead of the GMPFE estimate of ~3,567 boe/d which management attributed to flush production during the quarter. Production volumes were up ~10% QoQ. Cash flow of $6.4 mm ($0.03/share) was also ahead of our estimate of $3.3mm ($0.02/share) due to higher production and lower than forecasted operating costs. The company also had royalty credits that resulted in no royalties paid during 1Q18. During the quarter, LXE spent $11.5 mm net largely on DCT&E, which was in line with our forecast of $12 mm. As of quarter-end, LXE had $13.6 mm in cash and working capital and an undrawn $20 mm credit facility. Between the available working capital, credit facility and estimated 18e cash flow, LXE has enough capital to execute its 2018e capital program. Looking forward, LXE expects production in 2Q18 to be impacted by ~500 boe/d (shut-ins and maintenance) and the company reiterated its 2018 average production guidance of 3,600 boe/d (in line with GMPFE). We have updated our model to reflect the quarterly results. With an implied 26% return, we continue to have a BUY rating on Leucrotta.

Companies: LEUCROTTA EXPLORATION
  • 25 Apr 18

No surprises from year-end results

LXE reported average 4Q17 production of 3,802 boe/d (34% liquids). This was in line with pre-released volumes of ~3,802 boe/d (when reserves were released) and production volumes are up ~22% QoQ. Cash flow of $4.5mm ($0.02/share) was ahead of our estimate of $3.3mm ($0.02/share) due to higher liquids production and lower than forecasted operating and transportation costs.

Companies: LEUCROTTA EXPLORATION
  • 27 Feb 18

Drilling at Doe/Mica results in higher y/y reserve bookings

Reserves were up 258% y/y on a PDP basis to 4.6mmboe, 47% on a 1P basis to 15.1mmboe and 63% on a 2P basis to 37.1mmboe. Increased bookings were due to ongoing delineation drilling on its Doe/Mica Montney core area and higher per well bookings (Lower Montney Turbidite oil window moved from 650mboe to 855mboe). Based on managements stated 4Q17 production volumes of 3,802 boe/d, this represents a 1P RLI of 10.8 years and a 2P RLI of 26.7 years.  We calculate 2P Future Development Costs of $167.6mm, which is ~13x Leucrotta’s 2018e estimated cash flow of $12.6mm (strip). Based off total spending this resulted in 1P FD&A costs of $19.61/boe and 2P FD&A costs of $10.67/boe, including FDC. This drives recycle ratios of 0.4x 1P and 0.8x 2P based on a 2017e cash flow netback of $8.13/boe.  We have updated our model and NAV to reflect the reserve report and operations update. With an implied 47% return, we continue to have a BUY rating on Leucrotta.

Companies: LEUCROTTA EXPLORATION
  • 23 Jan 18

Update on Lower Montney drilling activities

The 9-33 oil well was drilled and completed late last year using 51 fracs compared to the previous design of 28 fracs. The well had a reported IP30 rate of 1,351 boe/d (45%), which is 131% above type curve and well ahead of previous Lower Montney Turbidite wells. Management also stated that its 4-12 liquids-rich gas well that was completed using 49 fracs had an IP90 rate of 685 boe/d (30% liquids), which is tracking below type curve of 845 boe/d (30% liquids). This was largely attributed to a mechanical failure during completion that resulted in a material number of fracs being ineffective. Management believes only about 20 of the fracs were contributing. In 2018, the company will focus on delineation and well productivity. As a result, the company will drill 2 vertical wells to confirm Turbidite reservoir and 3 – 4 Hz wells to extend the proven productivity of the Lower Montney Turbidite play over LXE lands. As at 2017YE LXE had an estimated ~$19mm in positive working capital and an undrawn $20mm credit facility. Management expects to complete its 2018 capital program with cash flow and cash on hand. We have updated our model to reflect the operations update. With an implied 30% return we continue to have a BUY rating on LXE.

Companies: LEUCROTTA EXPLORATION
  • 29 Nov 17

No surprises from 3Q17 results

LXE reported average 3Q17 production of 3,123 boe/d (27% liquids). This was in line with pre-released volumes of ~3,000 boe/d and production volumes are up ~19% QoQ. Management continues to expect volumes to rise and forecasts 4Q17 average production of 3,600 boe/d (30% liquids) vs previous GMPFE forecasts at 3,369 boe/d (28% liquids) and the street at 3,280 boe/d. CFPS (f.d.) of $0.01/share was slightly ahead of our estimate of $0.00/share due to lower than forecasted operating and transportation costs. However, reported 3Q cash flow was in line with the street estimates of $0.01/share. During the quarter, LXE spent $16.3 mm largely on DCT&E, which was in line with our forecast of $15 mm. As at Sept 30, 2017, LXE has $29.2 mm in cash and working capital (previously stated ~$28 mm) and an undrawn $20 mm credit facility. Management estimates that it will have ~$18 mm in positive working capital at year-end (previously stated ~$20 mm) and an undrawn bank line. We have updated our model to reflect 3Q17 results and 4Q17 production guidance. With an implied 25% return, we continue to have a BUY rating on LXE.

Companies: LEUCROTTA EXPLORATION
  • 24 Oct 17

3Q17 preview and operations update

This morning, Leucrotta released a Fall operations update focused on its ongoing Montney activity. The biggest news item from the release was an update on longer-term production data from its A8-22 Lower Montney well. This well had an IP90 rate of 838 boe/d (40% oil & liquids). Given that A8-22 has both a higher IP90 rate (type curve of 521 boe/d) and a shallower decline (IP30 was 996 boe/d), we view these results as encouraging. 3Q17 production of ~3,000 boe/d (27% liquids) is largely in line with GMPFE estimates of 2,869 boe/d (28% liquids) and the street at 2,809 boe/d (29% liquids). Currently, LXE is producing around 3,200 boe/d however, management expects volumes to rise through 4Q17. As at September 30, 2017, the company estimates it has $28 mm in cash and working capital and an undrawn $20 mm credit facility. Management estimates that at year-end it will have ~$20mm in working capital (vs GMPFEe of $21mm) and an undrawn bank line. We have made some minor changes to our RENAV (from $2.21/sh to $2.54/sh) to account for this morning’s press release. We still consider our NAV assumptions conservative since over time LXE will have the opportunity to: 1) lower well costs using pad drilling and 2) decrease risk through successful delineation drilling. We have also updated our model to reflect 3Q17 financial and operating results.

Companies: LEUCROTTA EXPLORATION
  • 26 Jul 16

2Q16e Quarterly Preview

Some Recovery on Segmented Cash Flow Generation Over Q1 Though Still Down 56% Y/Y. In aggregate, the Intermediate, Mid, and Small Cap groups are expected to generate 2Q16e cash flow of $1,281 mm, $183 mm, and $53 mm, or $1.517 billion in total, that while depressed relative to the same period last year (~$2.647 billion combined), is up 17% sequentially from the prior quarter, largely on the strength of crude oil price recovery in the period. Severely weak natural gas pricing picture markedly reversed into summer, market likely to ignore financials for natural gas producers and look ahead to winter and formalization of sell-side 2018e estimates in coming months. Spot AECO natural gas prices recently crested C$2.60/mcf, and with a reasonable alignment of previously distressed NE BC Stn2 differentials, augmented by a withdrawal expected next week, view the market psyche as constructive and looking ahead, with the analogy that this market is shaping up to mirror 2012 still holding. That said, with crude oil poised to retest support levels, combined with strong stock price performance broadly observed YTD, we would characterize sentiment as slightly pessimistic in the near-term which could reduce or unwind momentum-based investment strategies that have worked thus far in 2016.

Companies: AAV ARX BTE BNP CPG ERF POU PEY PGF PWT PSK VII TOU VET WCP BNE CJ CR DEE JOY KEL LTS NVA PPY PMT PNE RRX RMP SRX SGY TOG TET ATU CKE GXE IKM LXE MQL PRQ SPE SKX TVE TVL YO ZAR

  • 23 Jun 16

Intermediates, Mid Caps & Small Cap Commodity Price Update

With this publication we highlight forecast revisions associated with our commodity price update (Natural Gas Update; Crude Oil Update), reaffirming a view of commodity price recovery in 2017e. In the interim until then, 2016e Canadian oil price realizations are up ~11% in the synthetic and Edmonton Light streams, with heavy WCS crude up ~20% which is amplified by Canadian oilsands output curtailments. While 2016e Canadian natural gas prices are projected to be ~20% lower, we expect much of this effect to be mitigated by strong hedging positions this year, and remain focused on price recovery next year with very strong increases reflected in both the strip and our revised forecast. Overall, broad valuations are flat to slightly higher coming out of this exercise, with oil/ liquids levered entities observing the highest 2017e CFO uptick. We remain constructive on the space, though the market will need to look past a trough of potentially weak pricing this summer.

Companies: ARX CPG ERF TOU POU CJ PPY SRX LXE

  • 27 May 16

Reports 1Q16 Results

Leucrotta’s first quarter results came in as expected, with little to no new operational information embedded in the release. Recall, during the period the Company announced encouraging results from its 8-22 light oil well at Mica along with a successful liquids-rich delineation well at East Doe, both in the Lower Montney turbidite play. With no material changes to our forecast, we have maintained both our Outperform ranking and target price of $2.00 per share.

Companies: LEUCROTTA EXPLORATION
  • 26 May 16

REPORTS 1Q16 RESULTS

Impact - neutral with first quarter results in line with expectations and nothing new in terms of operational information

Companies: LEUCROTTA EXPLORATION

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  • 23 Jul 19

Quarterly Research Outlook - Summer 2019

In January, we provided a list of 11 stocks for 2019 that we believed would perform strongly with attractive catalysts that could lead to material outperformance. In this Quarterly Research Outlook, we revisit these views, analysing what has happened and how the remaining six months of the year could play out.

Companies: AMS ANX ARS ATYM AVON BLVN PIER BUR CGS CAML CALL CSRT TIDE CYAN DTG DEMG ELM EMR FPO FST GTLY GENL GRI GEEC GKP HMI HAYD HEAD HILS HTG HUR HYR IBPO IOG INDI JHD JOG KAPE KEYS KCT KGH LAM LIT LOK MACF MANO PCA PANR PXC PHC PMO RBW RMM REDD RSW RNO RKH RBGP ROR SUS SCPA SHG SOLG SOM TWD TRAK TSG TRI VNET VTC ZOO ZTF

  • 20 Aug 19

Cenkos: Empyrean Energy Plc - Duyung Operational Update

Empyrean Energy has provided an update on its upcoming drilling programme in the Duyung PSC, offshore Indonesia, where the Company holds an 8.5% working interest. The two well campaign includes the Tambak-1 exploration/appraisal well, designed to appraise the central part of the Mako field and test the deeper 250Bcf Tambak prospect and the Tambak-2 appraisal well, designed as a 13.5km step out from the existing Mako South-1 gas well. Success at Tambak-2 would potentially convert some of the 392Bcf of 3C resources into 2C resources, which we value at a risked US$20.2m or 3.8p per share net to Empyrean (2C resources: US$13.6m or 2.5p per share). At a net cost of US$553-723k, the upcoming drilling campaign has the potential to deliver significant shareholder value with the minimal amount of capital expenditure. We maintain our BUY recommendation and our 33p price target.

Companies: Empyrean Energy
  • 15 Aug 19

Small Cap Feast


Companies: THR TRX KIBO VNET ALS PGR OCI JAN KRS IHC

  • 02 Jul 19

Where’s the Value?

Warren Buffett once said that as an investor, it is wise to be ‘fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful’. Fear is not in short supply right now.

Companies: OPM ALU ANCR BLV CONN CRC FDL GATC HAT LEK MMH MCB MWE NXR NTBR NOG PAF PEG RFX SRC TEF TEG TPT VTU WYN XLM

  • 09 Aug 19

Cenkos: Diversified Gas & Oil Plc - Interim Results

Yesterday, Diversified Gas & Oil (DGOC) released its 2019 interim results. H1/19 production averaged 76,000boepd, up 292% YoY and 22% from H2/18. June exit rate production exceeded 90,200boepd following the addition of c20,000boepd from the HG Energy acquisition, in line with our forecast FY2019 production figure of 82,700boepd. Net debt as of 30 June 2019 was US$613m, having paid US$52m in credit facility principal payments, with a further US$19.2m being returned to shareholders through the Company's share buyback programme. In lieu of the headwinds around the commodity prices, we have reduced our long-term NGL price forecast, reducing our 2019 EBITDA from US$308m to US$278m and our target price from 161p/share to 157p/share.

Companies: Diversified Gas & Oil
  • 14 Aug 19

FLASH: On your marks, get set, GO!

The Borgland Dolphin semi-submersible drilling rig has completed its acceptance testing. It is commencing move preparations today and is expected to begin transit shortly thereafter towards the Liberator field where it will initiate drilling operations.

Companies: I3 Energy
  • 06 Aug 19

LIBERUM: Sirius Minerals* - Bond offering delayed, to return in early September

Sirius announced this morning it has suspended its bond issue until market conditions have stabilised. The bond was due to price this week, but has coincided with an escalation in the China/US trade war, a devaulation of the RMB through 7 and a smaller than anticipated cut in the Fed funds rate which combined to drive a sharp equity/commodity sell off and risk-off in high-yield markets.

Companies: Sirius Minerals
  • 13 Aug 19

Cenkos: Empyrean Energy Plc - FY2019 Results

On Friday, Empyrean Energy announced its annual results for FY19, in which it made significant progress across its diversified portfolio. In doing so, the Company has laid the foundations for what could be a transformational 12-18 months. We believe the near-term exploration and appraisal drilling of Mako in Indonesia, combined with the huge potential upside of the Jade and Topaz prospects, offshore China, make for a compelling investment case. We update our model to take into consideration the recent headwinds around the commodity prices, whilst increasing the risking at the Company's non-core projects at Riverbend and the Eagle Oil Pool, we maintain our 33p price target.

Companies: Empyrean Energy
  • 14 Aug 19

Small Cap Feast


Companies: SSY QFI SRB GFIN THR XSG LMS RENE OEX SO4

  • 05 Jul 19

Small Cap Feast

ReAssure Group plc - The Group is a leading closed book life insurance consolidator in the United Kingdom with 4.3m policies, £68.7 billion of assets under administration on a Post-L&G Illustrative Basis. It is considering a premium listing segment of the main market. Voyager AIR The Company will focus on the acquisition, leasing and management of primarily widebody aircraft, with asset management services to be provided by Amedeo Limited he IPO will comprise a Placing and Offer for Subscription of Shares to raise up to approximately US$200m· IMC Exploration Group (NEX: IMCP), focused on acquiring and exploring prospecting licence areas which have high potential for natural resource, is looking to admit its shares to the standard list and will withdraw for the NEX Exchange. TBC Uniphar, a diversified healthcare services business with a workforce of over 2,000, is looking to join AIM. Raise TBC, expected mid-July 2019

Companies: SRT CHH VELA CREO ASH MIRA ECO AQX ARCM DRV

  • 12 Aug 19

Very good flow test results at Inanli

The well test result of the deepest target zone at Inanli-1 is very good news given that (1) we did not expect much from this lower quality reservoir and (2) the stable flow rate compares very favourably to previous tests and address important water concerns. The flow rate of 0.64 mmcf/d achieved so far at Inanli after 8 days from 14 m net sands is very encouraging in light of the total flow rate at Yamalik-1 on similar choke size for ALL THE ZONES flowing commingle from 121 m of total net pay (1.4 mmcf/d after four days and 0.5 mmcf/d stabilized after a month). The initial individual zones flow rates at Yamalik of 0.4-0.9 mmcf/d are not comparable given that they were in open hole (rather than chocked) over a period of only 24 hours and the fracks were on much larger areas. Only one third of the initial proppant was used at Inanli resulting in small reservoir stimulation. This bodes very well for the upcoming tests of the shallower and much better areas of the reservoir

Companies: Valeura Energy
  • 13 Aug 19

Sale of Australian assets confirmed

Hydrodec has announced the disposal of its Australian plant and equipment for A$1.7m, after allowing for A$300k decommissioning and transportation costs (A$2m pre-decommissioning costs) to Greenbottle Re-refining UK. While the proceeds are slightly lower than our expectations of US$2m (A$2.9m), we believe the execution of this transaction is welcome to simplify the Group and reduce management distraction to allow focus on the US operations.

Companies: Hydrodec Group
  • 19 Aug 19

Positive Feasibility Study outcome for the Tiris uranium project

Aura has now completed its feasibility Study into producing uranium (and potentially vanadium) from its Tiris deposit in Mauritania. The outcome was a viable project which is scalable, has a low All-In-Sustaining-Cost (AISC) cost at $30/lb U3O8 (compared with global peers) and most importantly has a low capital cost at $63m – particularly important in today’s unsteady capital market environment. We are firmly of the opinion that Tiris is a company maker for Aura as it moves along the next steps of optimisation and funding with a view at this stage to commission end 2020 / beginning 2021 – perfectly timed for what we perceive as a potential inflection point in the uranium price and a move to higher prices. We see additional value in Aura, we believe currently unrecognised in the market, with the large battery-metal Häggån project in Sweden and some prime greenstone belts in Mauritania which are (in our view) highly prospective for gold and base metals as limited prior exploration has shown. We currently see fair value in Aura at 3.2p/sh.

Companies: Aura Energy
  • 11 Jul 19

H1 2019 Operations Update

Central Asia Metals (CAML LN) announced robust operational performance yesterday with production on track for full year targets and our estimates driven by incremental operational improvements at Sasa. Q2 2019 zinc production of 5.9kt was up 7% YoY and 4% QoQ while copper production of 3.6kt was broadly flat YoY and up 23% QoQ while lead output of 7.1kt was down 3% YoY and 1% QoQ. With H1 2019 production of 6.6kt copper, 14.4kt lead and 11.5kt zinc, CAML is on track for our full year estimates of 13.4kt, 28.9kt and 22.9kt respectively with our zinc estimate upgraded by 3%.

Companies: Central Asia Metals
  • 30 Jul 19

Hurricane Energy - Lancaster EPS performing above expectations

In June 2019, Hurricane Energy successfully delivered first oil from the Lancaster early production system (EPS) on time and on budget. Initial production performance has been ahead of management expectations providing support for increasing the EPS production plateau from a current base case of 17kbd to c 30kbd from Q420/Q121. Key to achieving this would be access to gas export, together with success at the ongoing Lincoln Crestal well, 205/26b-14, in the Greater Warwick Area (GWA). In this note, we update our short-term oil price deck (continuing to use last published EIA short-term forecasts) and adjust operational metrics to reflect the latest company guidance. In addition, we increase our risking of GWA to reflect the results of the Warwick Deep exploration well and remove the risked value we had included for Halifax. Overall, these leave our valuation broadly unchanged at 102.8p/share (+0.5%).

Companies: Hurricane Energy