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  • 28 Aug 19

Reports 2Q19 results

Leucrotta announced second quarter financial and operating results which were in line to slightly behind GMPFE and consensus expectations (AFFO $0.01 vs. GMPFE $0.01 vs. consensus $0.01). Leucrotta invested ~$3 mm in the quarter, surpassing both GMPFE and consensus estimates of $0.00 mm and $1.65 mm, with the lion’s share of the expenditure being directed towards an infrastructure acquisition in the Two Rivers operating area. We have taken capex down in both 2019e and 2020e as management conveys conservation of capital and the preservation of a positive working capital position.

Companies: LEUCROTTA EXPLORATION
  • 29 May 19

Announces 1Q19 results

Leucrotta announced 1Q19 results which were in line with both GMPFE and consensus expectations (FFO $0.02 vs. GMPFE $0.02 vs. consensus $0.02) in what was a relatively quiet quarter operationally.

Companies: LEUCROTTA EXPLORATION
  • 01 May 19

FLASH: Provides operational update

Leucrotta provided an update regarding its 8-22 (B08-22-081-14W6) Upper Montney test well at Mica.

Companies: LEUCROTTA EXPLORATION
  • 08 Mar 19

Reports 2018 reserve book

Leucrotta announced its 2018 reserve results, which is similar to prior years. Conversion of resource to tangible production and cash flow continues to be secondary to preservation/expansion of large resource footprint, and the careful delineation of acreage position. As such, PDP based performance measures are underwhelming, undeveloped 1P/2P categories are better, though will still trial its peers to a degree in some efficiency aspects.

Companies: LEUCROTTA EXPLORATION
  • 28 Nov 18

Reports 3Q18 results, activity to slow with adherence to cash flow budget ahead

Leucrotta announced financial and operating results slightly behind our forecast, with lower liquids production, higher differentials and royalties cresting above a lower unit cash cost element which was a positive.

Companies: LEUCROTTA EXPLORATION
  • 18 Jun 18

FLASH: Positive initial result from Upper Montney well

This morning, LXE announced the initial results of its 10-08 Upper Montney well at Two Rivers. The well was cleaned-up over a ten day period and on the last day recorded a rate of 1,842 boe/d, which included 685 b/d (42 degree light oil), 5.6 mmcf/d of natural gas (1.3% H2S) and an estimated 224 b/d of recoverable NGL’s. Management noted that the well was also producing significant water and frac fluid during the test period which was expected for the Upper Montney in the region.

Companies: LEUCROTTA EXPLORATION
  • 30 May 18

First quarter results ahead of expectations

LXE reported average 1Q18 production of 4,180 boe/d (27% liquids), which was comfortably ahead of the GMPFE estimate of ~3,567 boe/d which management attributed to flush production during the quarter. Production volumes were up ~10% QoQ. Cash flow of $6.4 mm ($0.03/share) was also ahead of our estimate of $3.3mm ($0.02/share) due to higher production and lower than forecasted operating costs. The company also had royalty credits that resulted in no royalties paid during 1Q18. During the quarter, LXE spent $11.5 mm net largely on DCT&E, which was in line with our forecast of $12 mm. As of quarter-end, LXE had $13.6 mm in cash and working capital and an undrawn $20 mm credit facility. Between the available working capital, credit facility and estimated 18e cash flow, LXE has enough capital to execute its 2018e capital program. Looking forward, LXE expects production in 2Q18 to be impacted by ~500 boe/d (shut-ins and maintenance) and the company reiterated its 2018 average production guidance of 3,600 boe/d (in line with GMPFE). We have updated our model to reflect the quarterly results. With an implied 26% return, we continue to have a BUY rating on Leucrotta.

Companies: LEUCROTTA EXPLORATION
  • 25 Apr 18

No surprises from year-end results

LXE reported average 4Q17 production of 3,802 boe/d (34% liquids). This was in line with pre-released volumes of ~3,802 boe/d (when reserves were released) and production volumes are up ~22% QoQ. Cash flow of $4.5mm ($0.02/share) was ahead of our estimate of $3.3mm ($0.02/share) due to higher liquids production and lower than forecasted operating and transportation costs.

Companies: LEUCROTTA EXPLORATION
  • 27 Feb 18

Drilling at Doe/Mica results in higher y/y reserve bookings

Reserves were up 258% y/y on a PDP basis to 4.6mmboe, 47% on a 1P basis to 15.1mmboe and 63% on a 2P basis to 37.1mmboe. Increased bookings were due to ongoing delineation drilling on its Doe/Mica Montney core area and higher per well bookings (Lower Montney Turbidite oil window moved from 650mboe to 855mboe). Based on managements stated 4Q17 production volumes of 3,802 boe/d, this represents a 1P RLI of 10.8 years and a 2P RLI of 26.7 years.  We calculate 2P Future Development Costs of $167.6mm, which is ~13x Leucrotta’s 2018e estimated cash flow of $12.6mm (strip). Based off total spending this resulted in 1P FD&A costs of $19.61/boe and 2P FD&A costs of $10.67/boe, including FDC. This drives recycle ratios of 0.4x 1P and 0.8x 2P based on a 2017e cash flow netback of $8.13/boe.  We have updated our model and NAV to reflect the reserve report and operations update. With an implied 47% return, we continue to have a BUY rating on Leucrotta.

Companies: LEUCROTTA EXPLORATION
  • 23 Jan 18

Update on Lower Montney drilling activities

The 9-33 oil well was drilled and completed late last year using 51 fracs compared to the previous design of 28 fracs. The well had a reported IP30 rate of 1,351 boe/d (45%), which is 131% above type curve and well ahead of previous Lower Montney Turbidite wells. Management also stated that its 4-12 liquids-rich gas well that was completed using 49 fracs had an IP90 rate of 685 boe/d (30% liquids), which is tracking below type curve of 845 boe/d (30% liquids). This was largely attributed to a mechanical failure during completion that resulted in a material number of fracs being ineffective. Management believes only about 20 of the fracs were contributing. In 2018, the company will focus on delineation and well productivity. As a result, the company will drill 2 vertical wells to confirm Turbidite reservoir and 3 – 4 Hz wells to extend the proven productivity of the Lower Montney Turbidite play over LXE lands. As at 2017YE LXE had an estimated ~$19mm in positive working capital and an undrawn $20mm credit facility. Management expects to complete its 2018 capital program with cash flow and cash on hand. We have updated our model to reflect the operations update. With an implied 30% return we continue to have a BUY rating on LXE.

Companies: LEUCROTTA EXPLORATION
  • 29 Nov 17

No surprises from 3Q17 results

LXE reported average 3Q17 production of 3,123 boe/d (27% liquids). This was in line with pre-released volumes of ~3,000 boe/d and production volumes are up ~19% QoQ. Management continues to expect volumes to rise and forecasts 4Q17 average production of 3,600 boe/d (30% liquids) vs previous GMPFE forecasts at 3,369 boe/d (28% liquids) and the street at 3,280 boe/d. CFPS (f.d.) of $0.01/share was slightly ahead of our estimate of $0.00/share due to lower than forecasted operating and transportation costs. However, reported 3Q cash flow was in line with the street estimates of $0.01/share. During the quarter, LXE spent $16.3 mm largely on DCT&E, which was in line with our forecast of $15 mm. As at Sept 30, 2017, LXE has $29.2 mm in cash and working capital (previously stated ~$28 mm) and an undrawn $20 mm credit facility. Management estimates that it will have ~$18 mm in positive working capital at year-end (previously stated ~$20 mm) and an undrawn bank line. We have updated our model to reflect 3Q17 results and 4Q17 production guidance. With an implied 25% return, we continue to have a BUY rating on LXE.

Companies: LEUCROTTA EXPLORATION
  • 24 Oct 17

3Q17 preview and operations update

This morning, Leucrotta released a Fall operations update focused on its ongoing Montney activity. The biggest news item from the release was an update on longer-term production data from its A8-22 Lower Montney well. This well had an IP90 rate of 838 boe/d (40% oil & liquids). Given that A8-22 has both a higher IP90 rate (type curve of 521 boe/d) and a shallower decline (IP30 was 996 boe/d), we view these results as encouraging. 3Q17 production of ~3,000 boe/d (27% liquids) is largely in line with GMPFE estimates of 2,869 boe/d (28% liquids) and the street at 2,809 boe/d (29% liquids). Currently, LXE is producing around 3,200 boe/d however, management expects volumes to rise through 4Q17. As at September 30, 2017, the company estimates it has $28 mm in cash and working capital and an undrawn $20 mm credit facility. Management estimates that at year-end it will have ~$20mm in working capital (vs GMPFEe of $21mm) and an undrawn bank line. We have made some minor changes to our RENAV (from $2.21/sh to $2.54/sh) to account for this morning’s press release. We still consider our NAV assumptions conservative since over time LXE will have the opportunity to: 1) lower well costs using pad drilling and 2) decrease risk through successful delineation drilling. We have also updated our model to reflect 3Q17 financial and operating results.

Companies: LEUCROTTA EXPLORATION
  • 26 Jul 16

2Q16e Quarterly Preview

Some Recovery on Segmented Cash Flow Generation Over Q1 Though Still Down 56% Y/Y. In aggregate, the Intermediate, Mid, and Small Cap groups are expected to generate 2Q16e cash flow of $1,281 mm, $183 mm, and $53 mm, or $1.517 billion in total, that while depressed relative to the same period last year (~$2.647 billion combined), is up 17% sequentially from the prior quarter, largely on the strength of crude oil price recovery in the period. Severely weak natural gas pricing picture markedly reversed into summer, market likely to ignore financials for natural gas producers and look ahead to winter and formalization of sell-side 2018e estimates in coming months. Spot AECO natural gas prices recently crested C$2.60/mcf, and with a reasonable alignment of previously distressed NE BC Stn2 differentials, augmented by a withdrawal expected next week, view the market psyche as constructive and looking ahead, with the analogy that this market is shaping up to mirror 2012 still holding. That said, with crude oil poised to retest support levels, combined with strong stock price performance broadly observed YTD, we would characterize sentiment as slightly pessimistic in the near-term which could reduce or unwind momentum-based investment strategies that have worked thus far in 2016.

Companies: AAV ARX BTE BNP CPG ERF POU PEY PGF PWT PSK VII TOU VET WCP BNE CJ CR DEE JOY KEL LTS NVA PPY PMT PNE RRX RMP SRX SGY TOG TET ATU CKE GXE IKM LXE MQL PRQ SPE SKX TVE TVL YO ZAR

  • 23 Jun 16

Intermediates, Mid Caps & Small Cap Commodity Price Update

With this publication we highlight forecast revisions associated with our commodity price update (Natural Gas Update; Crude Oil Update), reaffirming a view of commodity price recovery in 2017e. In the interim until then, 2016e Canadian oil price realizations are up ~11% in the synthetic and Edmonton Light streams, with heavy WCS crude up ~20% which is amplified by Canadian oilsands output curtailments. While 2016e Canadian natural gas prices are projected to be ~20% lower, we expect much of this effect to be mitigated by strong hedging positions this year, and remain focused on price recovery next year with very strong increases reflected in both the strip and our revised forecast. Overall, broad valuations are flat to slightly higher coming out of this exercise, with oil/ liquids levered entities observing the highest 2017e CFO uptick. We remain constructive on the space, though the market will need to look past a trough of potentially weak pricing this summer.

Companies: ARX CPG ERF TOU POU CJ PPY SRX LXE

  • 27 May 16

Reports 1Q16 Results

Leucrotta’s first quarter results came in as expected, with little to no new operational information embedded in the release. Recall, during the period the Company announced encouraging results from its 8-22 light oil well at Mica along with a successful liquids-rich delineation well at East Doe, both in the Lower Montney turbidite play. With no material changes to our forecast, we have maintained both our Outperform ranking and target price of $2.00 per share.

Companies: LEUCROTTA EXPLORATION

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  • 02 Dec 19

Hurricane Energy - Warwick West discovery

This morning Hurricane Energy announced the flow test results from its Warwick West well, which is the third and last well from the 2019 drilling campaign in the Greater Warwick Area (GWA). The well confirmed the discovery of 43° API light oil and tested at a stable flow rate of 1,300bod on natural flow with less than 0.5% of water being produced. Hurricane and Spirit Energy are evaluating the results of the 2019 drilling campaign and further technical analysis will determine both the potential for GWA to be a single accumulation and its volumetrics. Our risked valuation of Hurricane stands at 102.8p/share, with GWA tieback valued at 3.5p/share and GWA full field development at 21.6p/share. Hurricane shares are trading at 37.5p after dropping c 20% this morning. This implies the market is not attributing any value to the GWA full field, even though an oil discovery was observed.

Companies: Hurricane Energy
  • 21 Oct 19

Quarterly Research Outlook Autumn 2019

Following continued delays of a Brexit agreement, few sectors within the UK market have remained attractive to investors despite low valuations. One sector which has continued to outperform despite the political drama has been the UK video gaming sector (henceforth UK gaming), which we are fans of. We believe a combination of sector-leading growth, strong cash conversion and timely cyclical positioning support our positive view on the UK video gaming sector.

Companies: ABBY AMS ANX ARS ATYM AVON BLVN PIER BUR CGS CAML CDM CSRT TIDE CYAN DTG DEMG ELM EMR FPO FDEV GTLY GENL GHH GRI GEEC GKP HMI HAYD HEAD HILS HTG HUR IBPO IOG INDI JHD JOG KAPE KEYS KWS KCT KGH LAM LIT LOK MACF MANO MOD OXIG PCA PANR APP SRE PHC PMO RBW RMM RBGP REDD RSW RNO ROR SUS SCPA SEN SHG SOLG SOM SUMO TM17 INCE TWD TRAK TRI VNET VTC ZOO ZTF

  • 02 Dec 19

Allenby Capital TMT Update - 02.12.19 (BIRD.L, CPX.L, SWG.L)

Blackbird plc* (BIRD.L, 35p/£30.7m) | CAP-XX Ltd* (CPX.L, 3.7p/£12.0m) | Shearwater plc (SWG.L, 242p/£53.5m)

Companies: BIRD CPX SWG

  • 02 Sep 19

LIBERUM: Sylvania Platinum* - Results beat, Grasvally disposal but light on dividend

Sylvania has reported FY19 results (June Y/E) of $6.37/sh versus expectations of $5.95/sh due to a lighter tax expense than assumed. They have entered into a binding agreement to sell Grasvally for R115m ($7.6m at current FX), which should be settled in the next eight months.

Companies: Sylvania Platinum
  • 02 Dec 19

Reinstating estimates

We are reinstating President Energy estimates after taking into account the recent temporary oil price controls and its strategic pivot towards gas in Argentina. Our forecasts come down materially, as does our price target, which we have cut from 19p to 10p. However, we believe the shares have already moved to discount the uncertain investment climate within Argentina. At this stage, the incoming President’s approach towards the oil industry remains unclear, although he has indicated support towards the development of Vaca Muerta shale. This uncertainty makes it hard for investors to commit, but PPC’s growing core Rio Negro assets provide investment flexibility alongside material growth potential that a period of stability in Argentina will reveal.

Companies: President Energy
  • 06 Dec 19

Diversified Gas & Oil - Roadmap to Main Market

Diversified Gas and Oil (DGO) has announced the successful completion of its securitised financing arrangement with a 5% coupon and 10-year maturity. The company issued $200m in notes secured by c 22% working interest of certain upstream assets’ cash flows. DGO also announced its Q319 results delivering a 10% q-o-q increase in production to c 91kboed and hedge adjusted EBITDA of $64m. Since our previous note, the company has completed three acquisitions encompassing assets located near DGO operations and announced it is pursuing a move to the Premium segment of the Main Market of the London Stock Exchange. We update our valuation to 157.2p/share affected by a decrease in short-term gas price assumptions and lower production in H119 compared to our last note.

Companies: Diversified Gas & Oil
  • 06 Dec 19

Cenkos: Salt Lake Potash Ltd -- Placing

Salt Lake has raised A$23.5m at A$0.70 from several new Australian institutional investors and existing institutional shareholders. Taurus has also extended the Stage 1 Facility by US$15m (A$22m) to US$45m ahead of the main Project Development Facility as Salt Lake complete documentation and satisfaction of conditions precedent for the main Project Development Facility. Whether the work is progressing quicker than expected or documentation is taking longer is unknown but Salt Lake are pushing forward to meet its Q4/20 target. The next key stage will be the main Project Development Facility being finalised.

Companies: Salt Lake Potash
  • 06 Nov 19

LIBERUM: Ceres Power - Clean hydrogen announcement, forthcoming CMD, sector M&A

Ceres has made a strategically important RNS this morning indicating it has launched its first hydrogen fuel cell system giving customers a zero carbon option system looking forward in addition to its low carbon natural gas systems - one of two areas we hoped it would develop into. Our note today explains the merits of having a fuell cell system designed specifically to work with clean hydrogen, flags next week's CMD at the new Redhill facility and Liberum's December's conference at Liberum and highlights the reasons why the hydrogen/FC sector has been booming.

Companies: Ceres Power
  • 26 Nov 19

Oil prices help, but the best returns come from asset growth

This note takes a look at UK oil and gas sector equities from the supermajors down to the small cap E&Ps, the extent to which they outperform a simple bet on oil prices, and whether there are common characteristics that can allow investors to pick winners in the space. We conclude that outperformance is possible and has been achieved by numerous names in the last ten years, with the core hallmarks being asset base augmentation, either by progressing assets and/or via acquisition, and possessing the agency to achieve this. We also include profiles of the oil and gas stocks in our coverage.

Companies: BLVN GENL GEEC GKP HTG HUR IOG JOG LAM PANR PMO RKH SEN

  • 18 Apr 19

LIBERUM: Sylvania Platinum* - More value and more options

We recently attended a company site visit which highlighted that we have considerably undervalued the tail of Sylvania’s operations. Also, now that its host Samancor has grander ambitions, Sylvania too has possible growth opportunities.

Companies: Sylvania Platinum
  • 12 Sep 19

Hurricane Energy - Lincoln Crestal positive flow test

This morning Hurricane Energy announced the flow test results from its Lincoln Crestal well, the second well of a three-well drilling campaign in the Greater Warwick Area (GWA). The well tested at a maximum stable flow rate of 9,800bopd using electrical submersible pumps (ESPs). The well flowed at an average rate of 4,682bopd under natural conditions and no formation water was produced. The well will now be suspended, with the intention that it will be used for production via tie-back to Lancaster’s Aoka Mizu FPSO in 2020, subject to further work, regulatory consent and final investment decision by the joint venture. Production from the tie-back would generate reservoir data to be used in planning future phases of development of GWA. The drilling rig will now move to the location for the third and last well of the 2019 drilling programme, Warwick West. Our latest risked valuation of Hurricane Energy stands at 102.8p/share, with GWA tie-back being valued at 3.5p/share and GWA FFD at 21.6p/share. Hurricane Energy is currently trading at 49.0p/share.

Companies: Hurricane Energy
  • 02 Dec 19

Premier Oil

BIG-P development onstream

Companies: Premier Oil
  • 04 Dec 19

Coro Energy - Italian asset disposal and Bulu acquisition update

Coro Energy has provided an update on both the disposal of its non-core Italian assets and its Bulu PSC acquisition offshore East Java. Coro has entered into a conditional sale and purchase agreement with Zenith Energy for the disposal of its entire Italian portfolio for a consideration of £3.9m paid in new Zenith Energy shares. An initial consideration of £0.4m will be paid on completion of the deal and the rest is subject to certain production targets. Coro also announced the parties in the Bulu PSC continue to progress the transfer of the 42.5% participating interest in the PSC to Coro. With the acquisition not completed by the 2 December 2019 long-stop date due to a delay in receipt of approvals, the parties are now negotiating a further six-month extension.

Companies: Coro Energy
  • 02 Oct 19

LIBERUM: Ceres Power - Significant commercial progress in FY19

FY results contain few surprises as the trading update in July had already revealed revenues and that operating losses had 'reduced significantly. The shares are now up almost 30% since we initiated with a Buy in late June but still over 30% below our DCF valuation based on forecasts through to 2030.

Companies: Ceres Power
  • 29 Oct 19

Q3: upstream impacted by weather, partly offset by a strong downstream

The results show positive contributions from Rosneft and all Downstream divisions, partly offsetting the Upstream division, which was down on lower prices and lower production. The release has been toned down by management, indicating that a dividend hike will not be likely in Q4 as the focus is on deleveraging. This is not surprising, in our view, since H2 had little room for improvement with the buy-back planned and we do not see this as a departure from the progressive dividend policy.

Companies: BP