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  • 28 Aug 19
Reports 2Q19 results

Leucrotta announced second quarter financial and operating results which were in line to slightly behind GMPFE and consensus expectations (AFFO $0.01 vs. GMPFE $0.01 vs. consensus $0.01). Leucrotta invested ~$3 mm in the quarter, surpassing both GMPFE and consensus estimates of $0.00 mm and $1.65 mm, with the lion’s share of the expenditure being directed towards an infrastructure acquisition in the Two Rivers operating area. We have taken capex down in both 2019e and 2020e as management conveys conservation of capital and the preservation of a positive working capital position.

Companies: LEUCROTTA EXPLORATION
  • 28 Aug 19
Reports 2Q19 results

Leucrotta announced second quarter financial and operating results which were in line to slightly behind GMPFE and consensus expectations (AFFO $0.01 vs. GMPFE $0.01 vs. consensus $0.01). Leucrotta invested ~$3 mm in the quarter, surpassing both GMPFE and consensus estimates of $0.00 mm and $1.65 mm, with the lion’s share of the expenditure being directed towards an infrastructure acquisition in the Two Rivers operating area. We have taken capex down in both 2019e and 2020e as management conveys conservation of capital and the preservation of a positive working capital position.

Companies: LEUCROTTA EXPLORATION
  • 29 May 19
Announces 1Q19 results

Leucrotta announced 1Q19 results which were in line with both GMPFE and consensus expectations (FFO $0.02 vs. GMPFE $0.02 vs. consensus $0.02) in what was a relatively quiet quarter operationally.

Companies: LEUCROTTA EXPLORATION
  • 29 May 19
Announces 1Q19 results

Leucrotta announced 1Q19 results which were in line with both GMPFE and consensus expectations (FFO $0.02 vs. GMPFE $0.02 vs. consensus $0.02) in what was a relatively quiet quarter operationally.

Companies: LEUCROTTA EXPLORATION
  • 01 May 19
FLASH: Provides operational update

Leucrotta provided an update regarding its 8-22 (B08-22-081-14W6) Upper Montney test well at Mica.

Companies: LEUCROTTA EXPLORATION
  • 01 May 19
FLASH: Provides operational update

Leucrotta provided an update regarding its 8-22 (B08-22-081-14W6) Upper Montney test well at Mica.

Companies: LEUCROTTA EXPLORATION
  • 08 Mar 19
Reports 2018 reserve book

Leucrotta announced its 2018 reserve results, which is similar to prior years. Conversion of resource to tangible production and cash flow continues to be secondary to preservation/expansion of large resource footprint, and the careful delineation of acreage position. As such, PDP based performance measures are underwhelming, undeveloped 1P/2P categories are better, though will still trial its peers to a degree in some efficiency aspects.

Companies: LEUCROTTA EXPLORATION
  • 08 Mar 19
Reports 2018 reserve book

Leucrotta announced its 2018 reserve results, which is similar to prior years. Conversion of resource to tangible production and cash flow continues to be secondary to preservation/expansion of large resource footprint, and the careful delineation of acreage position. As such, PDP based performance measures are underwhelming, undeveloped 1P/2P categories are better, though will still trial its peers to a degree in some efficiency aspects.

Companies: LEUCROTTA EXPLORATION
  • 28 Nov 18
Reports 3Q18 results, activity to slow with adherence to cash flow budget ahead

Leucrotta announced financial and operating results slightly behind our forecast, with lower liquids production, higher differentials and royalties cresting above a lower unit cash cost element which was a positive.

Companies: LEUCROTTA EXPLORATION
  • 28 Nov 18
Reports 3Q18 results, activity to slow with adherence to cash flow budget ahead

Leucrotta announced financial and operating results slightly behind our forecast, with lower liquids production, higher differentials and royalties cresting above a lower unit cash cost element which was a positive.

Companies: LEUCROTTA EXPLORATION
  • 18 Jun 18
FLASH: Positive initial result from Upper Montney well

This morning, LXE announced the initial results of its 10-08 Upper Montney well at Two Rivers. The well was cleaned-up over a ten day period and on the last day recorded a rate of 1,842 boe/d, which included 685 b/d (42 degree light oil), 5.6 mmcf/d of natural gas (1.3% H2S) and an estimated 224 b/d of recoverable NGL’s. Management noted that the well was also producing significant water and frac fluid during the test period which was expected for the Upper Montney in the region.

Companies: LEUCROTTA EXPLORATION
  • 18 Jun 18
FLASH: Positive initial result from Upper Montney well

This morning, LXE announced the initial results of its 10-08 Upper Montney well at Two Rivers. The well was cleaned-up over a ten day period and on the last day recorded a rate of 1,842 boe/d, which included 685 b/d (42 degree light oil), 5.6 mmcf/d of natural gas (1.3% H2S) and an estimated 224 b/d of recoverable NGL’s. Management noted that the well was also producing significant water and frac fluid during the test period which was expected for the Upper Montney in the region.

Companies: LEUCROTTA EXPLORATION
  • 30 May 18
First quarter results ahead of expectations

LXE reported average 1Q18 production of 4,180 boe/d (27% liquids), which was comfortably ahead of the GMPFE estimate of ~3,567 boe/d which management attributed to flush production during the quarter. Production volumes were up ~10% QoQ. Cash flow of $6.4 mm ($0.03/share) was also ahead of our estimate of $3.3mm ($0.02/share) due to higher production and lower than forecasted operating costs. The company also had royalty credits that resulted in no royalties paid during 1Q18. During the quarter, LXE spent $11.5 mm net largely on DCT&E, which was in line with our forecast of $12 mm. As of quarter-end, LXE had $13.6 mm in cash and working capital and an undrawn $20 mm credit facility. Between the available working capital, credit facility and estimated 18e cash flow, LXE has enough capital to execute its 2018e capital program. Looking forward, LXE expects production in 2Q18 to be impacted by ~500 boe/d (shut-ins and maintenance) and the company reiterated its 2018 average production guidance of 3,600 boe/d (in line with GMPFE). We have updated our model to reflect the quarterly results. With an implied 26% return, we continue to have a BUY rating on Leucrotta.

Companies: LEUCROTTA EXPLORATION
  • 30 May 18
First quarter results ahead of expectations

LXE reported average 1Q18 production of 4,180 boe/d (27% liquids), which was comfortably ahead of the GMPFE estimate of ~3,567 boe/d which management attributed to flush production during the quarter. Production volumes were up ~10% QoQ. Cash flow of $6.4 mm ($0.03/share) was also ahead of our estimate of $3.3mm ($0.02/share) due to higher production and lower than forecasted operating costs. The company also had royalty credits that resulted in no royalties paid during 1Q18. During the quarter, LXE spent $11.5 mm net largely on DCT&E, which was in line with our forecast of $12 mm. As of quarter-end, LXE had $13.6 mm in cash and working capital and an undrawn $20 mm credit facility. Between the available working capital, credit facility and estimated 18e cash flow, LXE has enough capital to execute its 2018e capital program. Looking forward, LXE expects production in 2Q18 to be impacted by ~500 boe/d (shut-ins and maintenance) and the company reiterated its 2018 average production guidance of 3,600 boe/d (in line with GMPFE). We have updated our model to reflect the quarterly results. With an implied 26% return, we continue to have a BUY rating on Leucrotta.

Companies: LEUCROTTA EXPLORATION
  • 25 Apr 18
No surprises from year-end results

LXE reported average 4Q17 production of 3,802 boe/d (34% liquids). This was in line with pre-released volumes of ~3,802 boe/d (when reserves were released) and production volumes are up ~22% QoQ. Cash flow of $4.5mm ($0.02/share) was ahead of our estimate of $3.3mm ($0.02/share) due to higher liquids production and lower than forecasted operating and transportation costs.

Companies: LEUCROTTA EXPLORATION
  • 25 Apr 18
No surprises from year-end results

LXE reported average 4Q17 production of 3,802 boe/d (34% liquids). This was in line with pre-released volumes of ~3,802 boe/d (when reserves were released) and production volumes are up ~22% QoQ. Cash flow of $4.5mm ($0.02/share) was ahead of our estimate of $3.3mm ($0.02/share) due to higher liquids production and lower than forecasted operating and transportation costs.

Companies: LEUCROTTA EXPLORATION
  • 27 Feb 18
Drilling at Doe/Mica results in higher y/y reserve bookings

Reserves were up 258% y/y on a PDP basis to 4.6mmboe, 47% on a 1P basis to 15.1mmboe and 63% on a 2P basis to 37.1mmboe. Increased bookings were due to ongoing delineation drilling on its Doe/Mica Montney core area and higher per well bookings (Lower Montney Turbidite oil window moved from 650mboe to 855mboe). Based on managements stated 4Q17 production volumes of 3,802 boe/d, this represents a 1P RLI of 10.8 years and a 2P RLI of 26.7 years.  We calculate 2P Future Development Costs of $167.6mm, which is ~13x Leucrotta’s 2018e estimated cash flow of $12.6mm (strip). Based off total spending this resulted in 1P FD&A costs of $19.61/boe and 2P FD&A costs of $10.67/boe, including FDC. This drives recycle ratios of 0.4x 1P and 0.8x 2P based on a 2017e cash flow netback of $8.13/boe.  We have updated our model and NAV to reflect the reserve report and operations update. With an implied 47% return, we continue to have a BUY rating on Leucrotta.

Companies: LEUCROTTA EXPLORATION
  • 27 Feb 18
Drilling at Doe/Mica results in higher y/y reserve bookings

Reserves were up 258% y/y on a PDP basis to 4.6mmboe, 47% on a 1P basis to 15.1mmboe and 63% on a 2P basis to 37.1mmboe. Increased bookings were due to ongoing delineation drilling on its Doe/Mica Montney core area and higher per well bookings (Lower Montney Turbidite oil window moved from 650mboe to 855mboe). Based on managements stated 4Q17 production volumes of 3,802 boe/d, this represents a 1P RLI of 10.8 years and a 2P RLI of 26.7 years.  We calculate 2P Future Development Costs of $167.6mm, which is ~13x Leucrotta’s 2018e estimated cash flow of $12.6mm (strip). Based off total spending this resulted in 1P FD&A costs of $19.61/boe and 2P FD&A costs of $10.67/boe, including FDC. This drives recycle ratios of 0.4x 1P and 0.8x 2P based on a 2017e cash flow netback of $8.13/boe.  We have updated our model and NAV to reflect the reserve report and operations update. With an implied 47% return, we continue to have a BUY rating on Leucrotta.

Companies: LEUCROTTA EXPLORATION
  • 23 Jan 18
Update on Lower Montney drilling activities

The 9-33 oil well was drilled and completed late last year using 51 fracs compared to the previous design of 28 fracs. The well had a reported IP30 rate of 1,351 boe/d (45%), which is 131% above type curve and well ahead of previous Lower Montney Turbidite wells. Management also stated that its 4-12 liquids-rich gas well that was completed using 49 fracs had an IP90 rate of 685 boe/d (30% liquids), which is tracking below type curve of 845 boe/d (30% liquids). This was largely attributed to a mechanical failure during completion that resulted in a material number of fracs being ineffective. Management believes only about 20 of the fracs were contributing. In 2018, the company will focus on delineation and well productivity. As a result, the company will drill 2 vertical wells to confirm Turbidite reservoir and 3 – 4 Hz wells to extend the proven productivity of the Lower Montney Turbidite play over LXE lands. As at 2017YE LXE had an estimated ~$19mm in positive working capital and an undrawn $20mm credit facility. Management expects to complete its 2018 capital program with cash flow and cash on hand. We have updated our model to reflect the operations update. With an implied 30% return we continue to have a BUY rating on LXE.

Companies: LEUCROTTA EXPLORATION
  • 23 Jan 18
Update on Lower Montney drilling activities

The 9-33 oil well was drilled and completed late last year using 51 fracs compared to the previous design of 28 fracs. The well had a reported IP30 rate of 1,351 boe/d (45%), which is 131% above type curve and well ahead of previous Lower Montney Turbidite wells. Management also stated that its 4-12 liquids-rich gas well that was completed using 49 fracs had an IP90 rate of 685 boe/d (30% liquids), which is tracking below type curve of 845 boe/d (30% liquids). This was largely attributed to a mechanical failure during completion that resulted in a material number of fracs being ineffective. Management believes only about 20 of the fracs were contributing. In 2018, the company will focus on delineation and well productivity. As a result, the company will drill 2 vertical wells to confirm Turbidite reservoir and 3 – 4 Hz wells to extend the proven productivity of the Lower Montney Turbidite play over LXE lands. As at 2017YE LXE had an estimated ~$19mm in positive working capital and an undrawn $20mm credit facility. Management expects to complete its 2018 capital program with cash flow and cash on hand. We have updated our model to reflect the operations update. With an implied 30% return we continue to have a BUY rating on LXE.

Companies: LEUCROTTA EXPLORATION
  • 29 Nov 17
No surprises from 3Q17 results

LXE reported average 3Q17 production of 3,123 boe/d (27% liquids). This was in line with pre-released volumes of ~3,000 boe/d and production volumes are up ~19% QoQ. Management continues to expect volumes to rise and forecasts 4Q17 average production of 3,600 boe/d (30% liquids) vs previous GMPFE forecasts at 3,369 boe/d (28% liquids) and the street at 3,280 boe/d. CFPS (f.d.) of $0.01/share was slightly ahead of our estimate of $0.00/share due to lower than forecasted operating and transportation costs. However, reported 3Q cash flow was in line with the street estimates of $0.01/share. During the quarter, LXE spent $16.3 mm largely on DCT&E, which was in line with our forecast of $15 mm. As at Sept 30, 2017, LXE has $29.2 mm in cash and working capital (previously stated ~$28 mm) and an undrawn $20 mm credit facility. Management estimates that it will have ~$18 mm in positive working capital at year-end (previously stated ~$20 mm) and an undrawn bank line. We have updated our model to reflect 3Q17 results and 4Q17 production guidance. With an implied 25% return, we continue to have a BUY rating on LXE.

Companies: LEUCROTTA EXPLORATION
  • 29 Nov 17
No surprises from 3Q17 results

LXE reported average 3Q17 production of 3,123 boe/d (27% liquids). This was in line with pre-released volumes of ~3,000 boe/d and production volumes are up ~19% QoQ. Management continues to expect volumes to rise and forecasts 4Q17 average production of 3,600 boe/d (30% liquids) vs previous GMPFE forecasts at 3,369 boe/d (28% liquids) and the street at 3,280 boe/d. CFPS (f.d.) of $0.01/share was slightly ahead of our estimate of $0.00/share due to lower than forecasted operating and transportation costs. However, reported 3Q cash flow was in line with the street estimates of $0.01/share. During the quarter, LXE spent $16.3 mm largely on DCT&E, which was in line with our forecast of $15 mm. As at Sept 30, 2017, LXE has $29.2 mm in cash and working capital (previously stated ~$28 mm) and an undrawn $20 mm credit facility. Management estimates that it will have ~$18 mm in positive working capital at year-end (previously stated ~$20 mm) and an undrawn bank line. We have updated our model to reflect 3Q17 results and 4Q17 production guidance. With an implied 25% return, we continue to have a BUY rating on LXE.

Companies: LEUCROTTA EXPLORATION
  • 24 Oct 17
3Q17 preview and operations update

This morning, Leucrotta released a Fall operations update focused on its ongoing Montney activity. The biggest news item from the release was an update on longer-term production data from its A8-22 Lower Montney well. This well had an IP90 rate of 838 boe/d (40% oil & liquids). Given that A8-22 has both a higher IP90 rate (type curve of 521 boe/d) and a shallower decline (IP30 was 996 boe/d), we view these results as encouraging. 3Q17 production of ~3,000 boe/d (27% liquids) is largely in line with GMPFE estimates of 2,869 boe/d (28% liquids) and the street at 2,809 boe/d (29% liquids). Currently, LXE is producing around 3,200 boe/d however, management expects volumes to rise through 4Q17. As at September 30, 2017, the company estimates it has $28 mm in cash and working capital and an undrawn $20 mm credit facility. Management estimates that at year-end it will have ~$20mm in working capital (vs GMPFEe of $21mm) and an undrawn bank line. We have made some minor changes to our RENAV (from $2.21/sh to $2.54/sh) to account for this morning’s press release. We still consider our NAV assumptions conservative since over time LXE will have the opportunity to: 1) lower well costs using pad drilling and 2) decrease risk through successful delineation drilling. We have also updated our model to reflect 3Q17 financial and operating results.

Companies: LEUCROTTA EXPLORATION
  • 24 Oct 17
3Q17 preview and operations update

This morning, Leucrotta released a Fall operations update focused on its ongoing Montney activity. The biggest news item from the release was an update on longer-term production data from its A8-22 Lower Montney well. This well had an IP90 rate of 838 boe/d (40% oil & liquids). Given that A8-22 has both a higher IP90 rate (type curve of 521 boe/d) and a shallower decline (IP30 was 996 boe/d), we view these results as encouraging. 3Q17 production of ~3,000 boe/d (27% liquids) is largely in line with GMPFE estimates of 2,869 boe/d (28% liquids) and the street at 2,809 boe/d (29% liquids). Currently, LXE is producing around 3,200 boe/d however, management expects volumes to rise through 4Q17. As at September 30, 2017, the company estimates it has $28 mm in cash and working capital and an undrawn $20 mm credit facility. Management estimates that at year-end it will have ~$20mm in working capital (vs GMPFEe of $21mm) and an undrawn bank line. We have made some minor changes to our RENAV (from $2.21/sh to $2.54/sh) to account for this morning’s press release. We still consider our NAV assumptions conservative since over time LXE will have the opportunity to: 1) lower well costs using pad drilling and 2) decrease risk through successful delineation drilling. We have also updated our model to reflect 3Q17 financial and operating results.

Companies: LEUCROTTA EXPLORATION
  • 26 Jul 16
2Q16e Quarterly Preview

Some Recovery on Segmented Cash Flow Generation Over Q1 Though Still Down 56% Y/Y. In aggregate, the Intermediate, Mid, and Small Cap groups are expected to generate 2Q16e cash flow of $1,281 mm, $183 mm, and $53 mm, or $1.517 billion in total, that while depressed relative to the same period last year (~$2.647 billion combined), is up 17% sequentially from the prior quarter, largely on the strength of crude oil price recovery in the period. Severely weak natural gas pricing picture markedly reversed into summer, market likely to ignore financials for natural gas producers and look ahead to winter and formalization of sell-side 2018e estimates in coming months. Spot AECO natural gas prices recently crested C$2.60/mcf, and with a reasonable alignment of previously distressed NE BC Stn2 differentials, augmented by a withdrawal expected next week, view the market psyche as constructive and looking ahead, with the analogy that this market is shaping up to mirror 2012 still holding. That said, with crude oil poised to retest support levels, combined with strong stock price performance broadly observed YTD, we would characterize sentiment as slightly pessimistic in the near-term which could reduce or unwind momentum-based investment strategies that have worked thus far in 2016.

Companies: AAV ARX BTE BNP CPG ERF POU PEY PGF PWT PSK VII TOU VET WCP BNE CJ CR DEE JOY KEL LTS NVA PPY PMT PNE RRX RMP SRX SGY TOG TET ATU CKE GXE IKM LXE MQL PRQ SPE SKX TVE TVL YO ZAR

  • 26 Jul 16
2Q16e Quarterly Preview

Some Recovery on Segmented Cash Flow Generation Over Q1 Though Still Down 56% Y/Y. In aggregate, the Intermediate, Mid, and Small Cap groups are expected to generate 2Q16e cash flow of $1,281 mm, $183 mm, and $53 mm, or $1.517 billion in total, that while depressed relative to the same period last year (~$2.647 billion combined), is up 17% sequentially from the prior quarter, largely on the strength of crude oil price recovery in the period. Severely weak natural gas pricing picture markedly reversed into summer, market likely to ignore financials for natural gas producers and look ahead to winter and formalization of sell-side 2018e estimates in coming months. Spot AECO natural gas prices recently crested C$2.60/mcf, and with a reasonable alignment of previously distressed NE BC Stn2 differentials, augmented by a withdrawal expected next week, view the market psyche as constructive and looking ahead, with the analogy that this market is shaping up to mirror 2012 still holding. That said, with crude oil poised to retest support levels, combined with strong stock price performance broadly observed YTD, we would characterize sentiment as slightly pessimistic in the near-term which could reduce or unwind momentum-based investment strategies that have worked thus far in 2016.

Companies: AAV ARX BTE BNP CPG ERF POU PEY PGF PWT PSK VII TOU VET WCP BNE CJ CR DEE JOY KEL LTS NVA PPY PMT PNE RRX RMP SRX SGY TOG TET ATU CKE GXE IKM LXE MQL PRQ SPE SKX TVE TVL YO ZAR

  • 23 Jun 16
Intermediates, Mid Caps & Small Cap Commodity Price Update

With this publication we highlight forecast revisions associated with our commodity price update (Natural Gas Update; Crude Oil Update), reaffirming a view of commodity price recovery in 2017e. In the interim until then, 2016e Canadian oil price realizations are up ~11% in the synthetic and Edmonton Light streams, with heavy WCS crude up ~20% which is amplified by Canadian oilsands output curtailments. While 2016e Canadian natural gas prices are projected to be ~20% lower, we expect much of this effect to be mitigated by strong hedging positions this year, and remain focused on price recovery next year with very strong increases reflected in both the strip and our revised forecast. Overall, broad valuations are flat to slightly higher coming out of this exercise, with oil/ liquids levered entities observing the highest 2017e CFO uptick. We remain constructive on the space, though the market will need to look past a trough of potentially weak pricing this summer.

Companies: ARX CPG ERF TOU POU CJ PPY SRX LXE

  • 23 Jun 16
Intermediates, Mid Caps & Small Cap Commodity Price Update

With this publication we highlight forecast revisions associated with our commodity price update (Natural Gas Update; Crude Oil Update), reaffirming a view of commodity price recovery in 2017e. In the interim until then, 2016e Canadian oil price realizations are up ~11% in the synthetic and Edmonton Light streams, with heavy WCS crude up ~20% which is amplified by Canadian oilsands output curtailments. While 2016e Canadian natural gas prices are projected to be ~20% lower, we expect much of this effect to be mitigated by strong hedging positions this year, and remain focused on price recovery next year with very strong increases reflected in both the strip and our revised forecast. Overall, broad valuations are flat to slightly higher coming out of this exercise, with oil/ liquids levered entities observing the highest 2017e CFO uptick. We remain constructive on the space, though the market will need to look past a trough of potentially weak pricing this summer.

Companies: ARX CPG ERF TOU POU CJ PPY SRX LXE

  • 27 May 16
Reports 1Q16 Results

Leucrotta’s first quarter results came in as expected, with little to no new operational information embedded in the release. Recall, during the period the Company announced encouraging results from its 8-22 light oil well at Mica along with a successful liquids-rich delineation well at East Doe, both in the Lower Montney turbidite play. With no material changes to our forecast, we have maintained both our Outperform ranking and target price of $2.00 per share.

Companies: LEUCROTTA EXPLORATION
  • 27 May 16
Reports 1Q16 Results

Leucrotta’s first quarter results came in as expected, with little to no new operational information embedded in the release. Recall, during the period the Company announced encouraging results from its 8-22 light oil well at Mica along with a successful liquids-rich delineation well at East Doe, both in the Lower Montney turbidite play. With no material changes to our forecast, we have maintained both our Outperform ranking and target price of $2.00 per share.

Companies: LEUCROTTA EXPLORATION

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  • 10 Feb 20
WHI First Light: Caspian Sunrise, Watchstone Group & Water Intelligence

Caspian Sunrise (CASP) – Corporate – Operational Update Market Cap £140m Share Price 7.7p Caspian Sunrise announced that the Deep Well A5 sidetrack has flowed for a period of 40 days and management stated it continues to believe that the well is capable of producing at a rate of at least 1,500 b/d. The company is focusing on ensuring flow is maintained by adjusting the wells choke size to maintain a constant reservoir pressure. The company stated it is planning to optimise the well through an acid job later in February and that the operation is expected to take three days. Watchstone Group (WTG) – Corporate – Pre-close trading update and planned capital return to shareholders Market Cap £68.4m Share Price 148.5p Watchstone has this morning released a pre-close update for the year ended 31 December 2019, as well as announcing a planned first tranche return of capital to shareholders by the end of June 2020, subject to approvals. Water Intelligence (WATR) – Corporate – FY trading update ahead of expectations Market Cap £44.2m Share Price 317.5p WATR has published another strong update this morning, demonstrating that the company is able to generate strong double digit growth in revenues while at the same time expanding margins. FY2019E results are reported to be well ahead of the prior year on both the sales and the profit lines (+27% and +36% respectively), while no less than 9% ahead of forecasts. Showing again that the company is able to grow sales and margins at the same time, PBT margins are up >150 basis points, while operating margins in the key Corporate activity are at 13.5% (also +150bp).

Companies: CASP WTG WATR

  • 13 Feb 20
Premier Oil

Schemes approved by debt holders

Companies: Premier Oil
  • 10 Feb 20
Cenkos: Oil & Gas Sector -- Ithaca Energy, BP Plc, Eco (Atlantic) Oil & Gas, Chrysaor, President Energy, Wentworth Resources, EnQuest, RockRose Energy, Valeura Energy, Echo Energy, TransGlobe Energy, Victoria Oil & Gas, Hurricane Energy, Touchstone Explora

Oil declined for the fifth straight week as the spreading coronavirus clouded the demand outlook and OPEC awaited Russia's decision on whether to cut production. Futures in New York fell 2.4% for the week, posting the longest weekly losing streak since 2018. Chinese refiners are processing 15% less crude than before the outbreak as the infection crimps demand. Meanwhile, Russia hesitated to accept a proposal by OPEC+ to cut output by 600,000 barrels a day. Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak promised an answer to the proposal in “days”. In the US, gasoline futures rose to the highest in more than a week after Phillips 66 shut the sole fuel-making unit at its Bayway refinery in New Jersey, the largest on the East Coast. Futures rose 1.7% to settle at $1.5239 per gallon. Majors including Total SA and BP Plc projected a significant hit to global oil demand this year due to the virus, compounding fears of a supply glut plunging the market's structure into a bearish contango. Both state-owned and private refineries in China have scaled back processing by at least 2 million barrels a day over the past week, said people with knowledge of operations at the nation's largest complexes. So-called throughput could fall further as demand for aviation and transportation fuels continues to shrink as entire cities remain locked down and travel is restricted, the people said. West Texas Intermediate for March delivery fell 63 cents to settle at $50.32 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent for April delivery lost 46 cents to settle at $54.47 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange putting the premium over WTI at $3.92.

Companies: FOG PVR EME TRIN 88E

  • 10 Feb 20
The Industrial Revelation


Companies: CGS HAYD HTG OXIG RSW RNO SCPA TWD TRI ZTF GHH

  • 11 Feb 20
Buchan Asset Overview – That’s How You Do It!

Jersey supported by Rockflow Resources, petroleum consultants, has estimated that the development of the Buchan field has a potential to recover 58.5 mmb, 81.2 mmb and 99.3 mmb of oil under low, mid and high cases respectively. We met recently with Jersey and Rockflow to better understand the Buchan field and its forward looking production potential. We have gained confidence in the company’s resource estimates and we have outlined our reasons for that in this note. We have also provided our first success case estimate of the value of the field, which is $692M or $8.52/b based on the assumptions detailed in this note and the mid-case resource estimate. Given the early stage nature of the development project (project scoping phase, unfunded and no field development plan approval from the OGA) we believe a reasonable fair value for the company would include circa 10% of our success case valuation estimate, which adjusting for balance sheet items, amounts to 268p/sh.

Companies: Jersey Oil And Gas
  • 11 Feb 20
WHI First Light: Solid State, Walker Greenbank, Serinus Energy and Jersey Oil & Gas

Solid State (SOLI) – Corporate – Powering ahead from solid foundations Market Cap £53.7m Share Price 633p Solid State is a manufacturer of computing, power and communications products, and value added distributor of electronic components. This morning we have published a 24pp note setting out our investment thesis following a strong period for the group. Interim results in December demonstrated the strength of progress being delivered, putting the group well on track to meet our FY 2020E expectations and moving back into a net cash position for the first time since the acquisition of Pacer in 2018. Walker Greenbank (WGB) – Corporate – Full year trading update in line; strategic progress emerging Market Cap £50.4m Share Price 71p Walker Greenbank is a higher-end interior furnishings business with well-established global brand names and manufacturing facilities in the UK. The Group has this morning released a full year trading update, confirming that results for the year to 31 January 2020 will be in line with expectations. Against a challenging wider market backdrop, Morris & Co, Clarke & Clarke, core licensing and digital fabric printing have performed strongly, with the year-end net cash position standing at c.£1.0m (ex IFRS 16). Serinus Energy (SENX) – Corporate – Moftinu 1004 Well Successfully Tested at 6.0 mmcf/d Market Cap £24.5m Share Price 10.3p Serinus has announced that the Moftinu 1004 well produced on test at a maximum stable rate of 6.0 mmcf/d (1,000 boe/d) with no progressive pressure decrease throughout the test, which was undertaken with a 40/64” choke. Jersey Oil & Gas (JOG) – Corporate – Buchan Note Published by WHI Market Cap £21.8m Share Price 103p WHI view: Jersey supported by Rockflow Resources, petroleum consultants, has estimated that the development of the Buchan field has a potential to recover 58.5 mmb, 81.2 mmb and 99.3 mmb of oil under low, mid and high cases respectively. We met recently with Jersey and Rockflow to better understand the Buchan field and its forward looking production potential. We have gained confidence in the company's resource estimates and we have outlined our reasons for that in a note published today.

Companies: SENX WGB JOG SOLI

  • 12 Feb 20
Cenkos: 88 Energy Ltd -- Charlie-1 On Schedule

Potentially the biggest onshore well of 2020, the Charlie-1 appraisal well is on track to spud in late February. The well will intersect seven stacked intervals, targeting gross mean prospective resources of 1.6bnbbls (480mmbbls net to 88 Energy). All the permits required to drill the Charlie-1 well have been approved, with mobilisation of the Nordic Rig#3 due to begin in approximately 10 days. We believe the drilling of the Charlie-1 well will be a defining moment for 88 Energy as it looks to prove the conventional potential of the Project Icewine acreage. We look forward to one of the most anticipated onshore wells of 2020, targeting what we believe is the largest resource of any onshore well over the next 12 months.

Companies: 88 Energy
  • 06 Feb 20
Hurricane Energy

Operational update – work programme changes

Companies: Hurricane Energy
  • 14 Feb 20
Hydrodec*

2019 year-end trading update

Companies: Hydrodec Group
  • 03 Feb 20
Hardman & Co Monthly: February 2020

We recently published a paper, Share ownership: For the many, not the few, based on a statistical survey of share ownership, produced jointly with Argus Vickers, the share analysis service. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) has now issued its equivalent survey. This paper compares its results with ours. Although there are, inevitably, differences in the detail, the two surveys reach the same conclusions.

Companies: AVO AGY ARBB CLIG DNL FLTA GDR MCL NSF PCA PIN PXC PHP RECI RMDL STX SCE TON VTA

  • 02 Sep 19
LIBERUM: Sylvania Platinum* - Results beat, Grasvally disposal but light on dividend

Sylvania has reported FY19 results (June Y/E) of $6.37/sh versus expectations of $5.95/sh due to a lighter tax expense than assumed. They have entered into a binding agreement to sell Grasvally for R115m ($7.6m at current FX), which should be settled in the next eight months.

Companies: Sylvania Platinum
  • 30 Jan 20
Q4: buyback slows down

While the earnings were slightly below consensus, the focal point of the release is on the pace of the buyback programme. After sending a cautious statement last quarter, management has reduced the next tranche of the buyback to $1bn (vs. $2.5-2.75bn in the past). Pointing to a synchronised downturn (lower oil, gas prices as well as lower refining and chemical margins) which is below expectations, management is giving the priority to its balance sheet.

Companies: Royal Dutch Shell
  • 06 Feb 20
Hurricane Energy - Revised work programme at GWA and GLA

Hurricane Energy has announced an operational update with a programme focused on maximising the Aoka Mizu FPSO’s oil throughput capacity. In the Greater Warwick Area (GWA), partners concluded that it will not be possible to tie back the Lincoln Crestal Well to the FPSO in 2020. However, they are seeking regulatory consent to delay the abandonment of the Lincoln Crestal Well to obtain interference data during well testing in 2020 from one or more sub-vertical wells that are planned to be drilled and tested, to determine the maximum vertical extent of the Lincoln field. In the Greater Lancaster Area (GLA), an accelerated work programme is planned with an additional production well in 2020, in addition to drilling one or more sub-vertical wells in 2021 to determine the maximum extent of the Lancaster field. If successful, and subject to regulatory consents, the well would be tied back to the FPSO in 2021, with provisional first oil in Q122.

Companies: Hurricane Energy
  • 12 Feb 20
Lamprell

New digital partnership with Akselos

Companies: Lamprell
  • 18 Jul 18
Quarterly Research Outlook

In Q2, UK equities regained some of their poise after the draw down in Q1, although uncertainty around Brexit continued to grab the headlines. On the back of this, investor concern about the UK economy has been understandable in recent months given a number of negative data points. However, we see reasons for optimism for UK Plc with wage growth supporting an improving outlook for the consumer and business investment holding up. That said, continuing UK political disruption clearly remains a risk going forward.

Companies: AMER EMR HMI JOG PDG ABBY AMS AVON BLVN PIER CGS CALL CSRT TIDE DTG DEMG ELM EMR FPM FPO GTLY GENL INCE GEEC HDY HMI HAYD HEAD HILS HTG HUR IBPO IOG INDI JHD JOG LAM MACF MKLW NAH OXIG PCA APP CAKE PDG RBW REDD RSW RNO RKH ROR SUS SCPA SHG KCT TRAK TRI VTC ZTF