PetroTal (PTAL LN/TAL CN)C; Target: £0.45: Initiating coverage – PetroTal is a production and reserve growth story in Peru with a market cap of ~£90 mm. Management’s experience of operating in the jungle and their deep in country relationships are key. Project execution has been excellent. The Bretaña field (48 mmbbl 2P reserves) was acquired from Gran Tierra in late 2017 with production of 1 mbbl/d achieved in 3Q18. By YE19 that figure had grown to >13 mbbl/d. While COVID-19 forced a shut down of the export infrastructure and Brent prices collapsed to ~US$20/bbl, PetroTal has managed to negotiate with Petroperu a reduction in transport fees and a rephasing of a contingent payment. With the recent US$18 mm equity raise strengthening the balance sheet and production expected to restart in July, PetroTal is returning to growth. Bretaña could produce 20 mbbl/d. PetroTal’s shares trade at ~ one quarter of our Core NAV of £0.46 per share and at one third of the company’s value based on its 2P reserves only (2P NAV of £0.28 per share). On flat production, the share price implies EV/DACF multiples of 1.0x in 2021 turning negative in 2022. Importantly PetroTal’s only material liabilities consist of (1) an oil linked contingent payment over three years to Petroperu on very flexible terms and (2) trade payables of US$49 mm with attractive payment terms. We forecast ~US$45 mm of capex (incl. servicing the payables) in 2H20. This is covered by (1) US$28 mm in cash from a recent equity raise plus collecting pending invoices from oil sales, (2) >US$10 mm of VAT receivables and (3) ~US$25 mm operating cash flow (US$11-12/bbl net backs) in 2H20 at US$38/bbl. At ~US$45/bbl and 12 mbbl/d in 2021, we forecast PetroTal generates ~US$90 mm cash flow with ~US$35 mm cash capex (incl. servicing the payables). Our target price of £0.45 per share (~our Core NAV) represents 4.5x the current share price.
i3 Energy (I3E LN): Corporate update | Parex Resources (PXT CN): Trading update in Colombia | Phoenix Global Resources (PGR LN): FY19 results | Royal Dutch Shell (RDSA/B LN): Dry hole in Brazil | IGas Energy (IGAS LN): Trading update | Serinus Energy (SEN LN): Deferred EBRD debt repayment | Union Jack (UJO LN): Additional interest in UK asset | SDX Energy (SDX LN): Update in Egypt and Morocco| ShaMaran Petroleum (SNM CN): Payment from KRG and debt restructuring | United Oil & Gas (UOG LN): Reserves and production update in Egypt | FAR (FAR AU): Not paying cash call in Senegal | Lekoil (LEK LN): Update in Nigeria | San Leon Energy (SLE LN): FY19 results | Savannah Energy (SAVE LN): Trading update | Victoria Oil & Gas (VOG LN): Trading update in Cameroon
Companies: SEN SDX PTAL PGR VOG PXT SAVE RDSA FAR
In this note, we analyze the indebtedness of 35 international E&Ps publicly listed in the UK, Canada, Norway, Sweden and the USA. For each company, we look at (1) cash position, (2) level and nature of debt (including covenants), (3) debt service and principal repayment framework and (4) Brent price required from April to YE20 to meet all the obligations and keep cash positions intact. We also estimate YE20 cash if Brent were to average US$20/bbl from April to YE20. While the oil demand and oil price collapse are of unprecedented historical proportions and the opportunities to cut costs much more limited than in 2014, most companies (with a few exceptions) entered the crisis in much better position than six years ago, with stronger balance sheets and often already extended debt maturities. In addition, this time around, many E&Ps have already been deleveraging for 1-2 years and are not caught in the middle of large developments that cannot be halted. The previous crisis also showed that debt providers could relax debt covenants for a certain period as long as interest and principal repayment obligations were met. This implies that as long as operations are not interrupted and counterparties keep paying their bills (Kurdistan), the storm can be weathered by most for a few quarters.
With (1) Brent price of about US$50/bbl in 1Q20, (2) reduced capex programmes, (3) material hedging programmes covering a large proportion of FY20 production at higher prices and (4) limited principal repayments in 2020, we find that most companies can meet all their costs and obligations in 2020 at Brent prices below US$40/bbl and often below US$35/bbl) from April until YE20 and keep their cash intact, allowing them to remain solvent at much lower prices for some time. In particular, Maha Energy and SDX Energy are cash neutral at about US$20/bbl. When factoring the divestment of Uganda, Tullow needs only US$9/bbl to maintain its YE20 cash equal to YE19. Canacol Energy, Diversified Gas and Oil, Independent Oil & Gas, Orca Exploration, Serica Energy and Wentworth Resources are gas stories not really exposed to oil prices and Africa Oil has hedged 95% of its FY20 production at over US$65/bbl.
Companies: AKERBP AOI CNE CNE DGOC EGY ENOG ENQ GENL GKP GPRK GTE HUR IOG JSE KOS LUPE MAHAA OKEA ORC.B PEN PHAR PMO PTAL PXT RRE SDX SEPL TETY TGL TLW TXP WRL
GeoPark (GPRK US)C; Target: US$20 - Delivering more with less | Diversified Gas and Oil (DGOC LN): Acquisition in the US and US$87 mm equity raise | Gran Tierra Energy (GTE LN/CN): 1Q20 results| Parex Resources (PXT CN): 1Q20 results | Trinity Exploration and Production (TRIN LN): FY19 results | Touchstone Exploration (TXP LN/CN): 1Q20 results | Condor Petroleum (CPI CN): 1Q20 results | Premier Oil (PMO LN): 1Q20 update and FY20 production guidance reduction | Serinus Energy (SEN LN): 1Q20 update | Valeura Energy (VLU LN/VLE CN): 1Q20 results |Caspian Sunrise (CASP LN): Production update in Kazakhstan | Genel Energy (GENL LN): 1Q20 update | Pharos Energy (PHAR LN): 1Q20 results | ShaMaran Petroleum (SNM CN/SS): 1Q20 update in Kurdistan | TransGlobe Energy (TGL LN/CN): 1Q20 results | Africa Oil (AOI SS/CN): 1Q20 results | Vaalco Energy (EGY LN/US): 1Q20 results | Kosmos Energy (KOS LN/US): 1Q20 results
Companies: KOS GPRK DGOC GTE PXT TRIN TXP CPI PMO SENX VLU CASP GENL PHAR SNM TGL AOI EGY KOS
88 Energy (88 LN/AU)/Premier Oil (PMO LN): Drilling update in Alaska | Eco (Atlantic) Oil & Gas (ECO LN/EOG CN): Update in Guyana | Maha Energy (MAHA-A SS): Acquisition in USA and production update | Parex Resources (PXT CN): Low capex programme and production update in Colombia | Total (FP FP): Significant discovery in Suriname | Aker BP (AKERBP NO): Small discovery on Norway | BP (BP LN): 1Q20 update and capex reduction | Providence Resources (PVR LN): US$3 mm equity raise | RockRose Energy (RRE LN): FY19 results, guidance revision | Royal Dutch Shell (RDSA/B LN): 1Q20 update | Valeura Energy (VLE CN/VLU LN) : Update in Turkey | Caspian Sunrise (CASP LN): Production update in Kazakhstan | JKX Oil & Gas (JKX LN): FY19 results | Nostrum Oil & Gas (NOG LN): Corporate update in Kazakhstan | Energean Oil & Gas (ENEOG LN): Progress at Edison E&P acquisition | Payment from Kurdistan received | TransGlobe Energy (TGL LN/CN): Operating update in Egypt | United Oil & Gas (UOG LN): Update in Egypt | Aker Energy: Postponing development in Ghana | Canadian Overseas Petroleum (COPL LN/XOP CN): US$63 mm legal claims by Essar against ShoreCan | Tullow Oil (TLW LN): RBL redetermination in line, no further principal repayment until 2021 and further capex reduction
Companies: 88E AKERBP BP/ CASP COPL DNO ENOG GENL GKP JKX MAHAA NOG PMO PXT PVR RDSA RRE TGL TLW UOG VLU
Companies: ATU CNQ PXT SRX TOU TVE ENB PD K TXG FM LUN TCN AIF ATA TCS ARE ARE CCL.B SIS SIS
Parex Resources (PXT-TSX); BUY, C$33.50
Companies: Parex Resources
Parex Resources (PXT CN); BUY, C$33.00: 3Q19 results, 2020 guidance roll-out reveals better than anticipated FCF | Chevron (CVX US) (not covered): Exiting Malampaya | Union Jack Oil (UJO LN) (not covered) & Reabold Resources (RBD LN): Upgraded volume estimate in the UK | Genel Energy (GENL LN); Speculative Buy, £3.20: Somaliland farm-out process | Aminex (AEX LN) (not covered) & Solo Oil (SOLO LN): 2020 capex budget in Tanzania
Companies: PXT CVX UJO RBD GENL AEX SOLO
Kosmos Energy (KOS LN/US) (not covered): 2Q19 results | Parex Resources (PXT CN); BUY, C$32.00: 2Q19 results | Providence Resources (PVR LN) (not covered): Working capital update
Companies: KOS PXT PVR
Canacol Energy (CNE CN) (not covered): Gas discovery in Colombia | Parex Resources (PXT CN)8; BUY, C$32.00: Andina Norte-1 tests 2,892 bbl/d, leading bid on 2 blocks in early Colombia bid round action | Renaissance Oil (ROE CN) (not covered): Issue of new equity | Total (FP FP) (not covered): Selling stake in Norwegian asset | Gulf Keystone Petroleum (GKP LN) (not covered): Payment update in Kurdistan
Companies: CNE PXT ROE GKP
Parex Resources (PXT CN)8 ; BUY, C$31.00: 1Q19 results in line, testing of up to four pay zones has commenced on Andina Norte-1 | Africa Oil (AOI CN/SS): BUY, C$2.60; 1Q19 results | ENI (ENI IM) (not covered): Discovery in Ghana
Companies: PXT AOI ENI
Parex Resources (PXT CN); BUY, C$30.00: 1Q19 estimated production c. 51,200 boe/d | Premier Oil (PMO LN); BUY; £1.45: Well test result in Mexico | Europa Oil & Gas (EOG LN) (not covered) & UK Oil & Gas (UKOG LN) (not covered): Sale of interest in PEDL143, UK | Union Jack Oil (UJO LN) (not covered) & UK Oil & Gas (UKOG LN) (not covered): Holmwood update, UK | Tlou Energy (TLOU LN) (not covered): Placement with Botswana based investors | Tower Resources (TRP LN) (not covered): Proposed bridging loan
Companies: PXT PMO EOG UJO UKOG TLOU TRP
Impact: Slightly positive. Parex continues to top expectations, matching up ideally with strong Brent crude prices and a narrow Vasconia differential.
Cabot Energy (CAB LN)1 ; Speculative Buy, £0.06: Issue of new equity | Echo Energy (ECHO LN) (not covered): Flow test results in Argentina | Parex Resources (PXT CN); BUY, C$28.50: impressive year of reserve growth performance | Lundin Petroleum (LUPE SS) (not covered): Dry hole in Norway | RockRose Energy (RRE LN) (not covered): Update in the North Sea | Genel Energy (GENL LN); Speculative Buy, £3.00: Reserves update at Taq Taq in Kurdistan | Tethys Oil (TETY SS)1,6; HOLD, SEK85: 4Q18 results and dividend boost
Companies: ECHO PXT LUPE RRE GENL CAB TETY
Impact: Neutral, as this is consistent with what the company was previously intimating and highlights the commitment to the NCIB through reserve and year-end reporting season
Parex Resources (PXT CN); BUY, C$27.00: Andina-2 tests combined 3,800 bbl/d | Ophir Energy (OPHR LN): £0.55, HOLD; Rejection of Medco’s latest possible offer | Faroe Petroleum (FPM LN); TENDER, £1.60: Drilling update at Brasse | Lundin Petroleum (LUPE SS): Increased reserves and contingent resources | OMV (OMV AG) (not covered): 4Q18 trading update | ENI (ENI IM) (not covered): Transactions in the UAE | SDX Energy (SDX LN/CN)1,6: Update in Egypt
Companies: PXT OPHR FPM LUPE OMV ENI SDX
Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on Parex Resources.
We currently have 81 research reports from 4
A number of REITs have the ability to thrive in current market conditions and thereafter. Not only do they hold assets that will remain in strong demand, but they have focus and transparency. The leases and underlying rents are structured in a manner to provide long visibility, growth and security. Hardman & Co defined an investment universe of REITs that we considered provided security and “safer harbours”. We introduced this universe with our report published in March 2019: “Secure income” REITs – Safe Harbour Available. Here, we take forward the investment case and story. We point to six REITs, in particular, where we believe the risk/reward is the most attractive.
Companies: AGY ARBB ARIX BUR CMH CLIG DNL HAYD NSF PCA PIN PXC PHP RE/ RECI SCE SHED VTA
Caledonia, which operates the Blanket gold mine in Zimbabwe, announces today a second dividend increase for 2020 with an increase of their dividend from 7.5c a quarter to 8.5c a quarter – an annualised 34c/yr which currently yields 2.3%. This comes on the back of a first increase in January of this year when Caledonia raised its dividend from 6.9c/quarter.
Avation is a lessor of 48 commercial aircraft to a diversified airline client base. This morning, the group has released results for the nine months to 31 March 2020, which illustrate that the business remained profitable in Q3 FY 2020.
Phoenix copper today provides the results from the initial metallurgical test work to recover precious metals from the Empire deposit. Results from leaching with non-toxic ammonium thiosulfate (ATS) resulted in high gold recoveries of nearly 98% gold, and silver recoveries of between 70% and 80%. A full metallurgical report on this new work is available on Phoenix Copper's website.
Companies: CMCL AVAP PXC
Considering the environment, this sale is positive and marks the completion of the $15bn divestment programme started after the acquisition of the shale assets from BHP in 2018. Overall, BP’s strategy in downstream is to bring stable earnings, to offset volatility in upstream. In this regard, expanding renewables activities would seem appropriate to BP. While, BP has no competitive advantage in this field, exposure to renewables will allow the oil majors to keep their oil & gas activities.
Companies: BP Plc
Acquisitions and creditors update
Companies: Premier Oil
InfraStrata's acquisition of the iconic Harland & Wolff (H&W) shipyards in Northern Ireland has been transformational for the group, and with a carefully planned growth strategy, there is a clear route to cash breakeven in the short term. Over the medium to long term, these facilities could support a c£400m revenue business. With the company trading at a c30% discount to its H1/20A book value and c65% to its Adj NAV, we initiate with a Buy recommendation.
Oil posted its second weekly loss for the month, as a surge in US coronavirus cases clouds the demand outlook and casts doubts on the market's recovery.
Futures in New York slipped 3.2% this week. The price slump comes just days after oil closed above $40 for the first time since early March, and following a run of weekly gains that lifted oil from its historic plunge below zero in April. Texas -- the centre of the American oil industry -- halted its reopening as virus infections jumped, and Houston's intensive-care wards reached capacity. Bars in Texas and Florida were ordered to shut, and Arizona reported a surge in infections.
While massive OPEC+ output cuts and a pickup in demand have helped crude climb from its April low, price gains have slowed this month. Infections continue to soar in many parts of the world, consumption is still a long way off pre-virus levels and many refiners are struggling with low margins.
Crude stockpiles in the US are at record highs, and there's a risk that US shale producers could start bringing back output. The number of rigs drilling for oil fell by 1 to 188, the lowest since June of 2009.
West Texas Intermediate for August slid 23 cents to settle at $38.49 a barrel in New York.
Brent for August fell 3 cents to close at $41.02 a barrel.
Still, the pessimism's being tempered by huge cuts to Russia's seaborne crude exports, a development that lifted oil earlier in the session. Shipments of the flagship Urals grade from its three main western ports are set to plunge by 40% next month, according to loading programmes seen by Bloomberg. The steep reductions underscore the OPEC+ alliance's commitment to eliminate the oil glut that built up earlier this year.
Other oil news:
Exxon Mobil Corp is preparing to cut jobs in the US as the oil giant focuses on a slimmed-down and more efficient organisational structure, according to people familiar with the matter.
Four automakers backing a California effort to curb tailpipe emissions will break with some big rivals in the legal battle over the Trump administration's relaxation of fuel efficiency standards.
Companies: FOG PVR 88E DGOC EME TRIN UOG
Implications of the gold-silver metallurgy at Empire, Idaho
Yesterday, Phoenix Copper published a metallurgical report on the leaching of its gold-bearing mineralisation from the Empire resource area in Idaho. This showed high recoveries for gold and silver using standard cyanide and non-standard Ammonium Thiosulphate leaching (comparable leach times, reagent consumption and recovery). The implications of these tests may be far ranging for Phoenix as it enables it to consider bringing forward precious metals production from the area, with the following benefits: 1) quicker permitting for a non-cyanide process; 2) cheaper reagents; 3) earlier establishment of mine site infrastructure to assist ongoing economic studies and; 4) cash flow in a robust gold price environment. More test work on the gold recovery process remains to be completed to establish the optimum leaching and recovery parameters. We still see fair value at 34p/sh (see research from 12/05/2020 for full details) but note that Phoenix management is actively seeking to bring forward value in its projects. In the meantime, we have drilling results and a (potential) resource upgrade to look forward to shortly from the Red Star lead-silver project as well as a funded resource drilling program to establish a whole resource for Empire – and not just the base metal-rich zones.
Companies: Sirius Real Estate
Enteq Upstream PLC (LON:NTQ) has released full-year (FY) results for the year-end March 2020 with commentary on the ongoing trading environment. The company reported revenues of around US$10.9mln, underlying adjusted EBITDA (earnings before tax interest depreciation and amortisation) of US$3.1mln,
Companies: Enteq Upstream
Rockfire Resources, the gold and copper exploration junior with projects in northern Queensland has recently commenced a major £0.8m drilling programme on Plateau, its most advanced project. Drilling is likely to be followed by a resource update in late 2020 and a scoping study in Q1 2021. We believe that the updated resource estimate could be commercially significant. This reflects the promising drilling results post July 2019’s resource assessment and the potential for the drilling programme to expand the resource base given the analogous Mt Wright mine geology 47 km to the NE. The new drilling programme will include diamond drilling for the first time which will enable deeper higher-grade targets to be targeted. The drilling programme has been underpinned by the recently announced £1m raise. We believe the scope for positive news flow in the coming months is excellent while the gold market backdrop should be supportive for gold exploration as well as production plays over the balance of 2020.
Companies: Rockfire Resources
Shearwater sells resilience and today's trading update shows us how resilient demand has been for its products and services. The Group has swung to EBITDA profitability and cash flow is well ahead of expectations. The macro themes of cyber security and remote working are supportive of robust demand levels going forward. We are maintaining our forecasts. Buy.
Companies: Shearwater Group
Petropavlovsk PLC (LSE: POG) have released their FY2019 results and Q1 trading update this morning. The company had already released production numbers for last year. Overall the numbers reflected a strong operational performance although various financial/other parameters thwarted positive changes below the EBITDA line. Conversely net cash from operations reduced by 43% due to lower cash from prepayment as part of the group’s forward sale facility with the banks, yet net debt came down to $561m. . We show the key figures in Table 1.
Solid State is a manufacturer of computing, power and communications products, and value added distributor of electronic components. This morning, the group has provided a further update on trading in light of the present COVID-19 backdrop, ahead of full year results to 31 March 2020 due to be released on 30 June.
Cadence today provides and update on the Amapá iron ore project in Brazil. The Amapá JV (EV Mineração S.A.), in which Cadence can earn an initial 20% of the project, is understood to be on track to begin shipping stockpiled iron ore from late Q2 / early Q3 2020. Finalisation of the negotiation with the secured creditors still needs to be reached, but the Amapá JV partners are engaging constructively. In preparation for shipping, a trucking contractor has been hired to move key equipment to site and a shipping manager and shipping broker have been engaged.
This morning's update from CSSG confirms the positive direction of travel highlighted when the company published H1 results in March. With comparators still challenging (because of one-off work in the prior year), and “light” Covid-19 impacts in recent months, the expected £1.6m EBITDA flagged by the company seems a creditable number, still within touching distance of historical performance in both EBITDA and PBTA terms. Net cash, moreover, even after three months of the Covid-19 crisis, is reported to still be higher than the £2.4m which the company reports it had at the start (which in turn represents an increase on the £2.3m as at 31 December 2019). Not surprisingly, having suspended payment of the dividend a couple of months ago, the Board is now proposing to have another look at this question, at least in relation to the half year dividend.
PTY's announcement this morning flags a change in the CFO role with the new appointee benefiting from extensive experience in developing digital businesses to their full potential, both in overall and in financial leadership positions. His arrival follows on from highly proactive action led by the previous finance director, delivering a platform for growth once the current uncertain circumstances have abated.
Companies: KDNC CSSG PTY SOLI
Warren Buffett once said that as an investor, it is wise to be ‘fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful’. Fear is not in short supply right now.
Companies: OPM ALU ANCR BLV CONN CRC STU GATC HAT LEK MMH MCB MWE NXR NTBR NOG PAF PEG RFX SRC TEF TEG TPT VTU WYN XLM
Jubilee Metals (JLP) – Corporate – H2 Update - Continued transformational improvements
Market Cap £90m Share Price 4.5p
Today Jubilee, the chrome and Platinum Group Metals (PGM) producer in South Africa with its Kabwe base metal refinery currently under construction in Zambia, provides an update on its H2 numbers for the six month period ending December 31st 2019. Revenues increased 74% (£25.0m from £14.4m in H1 2019) with operational earnings also increasing to £8.3m in H2 (from £5.6m). In H2 the company also brought the Kabwe copper (cobalt) plant into production from third party material with a view to also producing zinc in Q2 2020.
Verditek (VDTK) – Corporate – Continued trials, new sales appointment
Market Cap £4.9m Share Price 2.25p
We note this morning's RNS from VDTK, which outlines a wide range of trials, development agreements and potential outlets for their strong but light solar product. The RNS amply illustrates the potential broad reach of VDTK's product, taking in industrial, retail, telecoms and transportation products among others. With the company anticipating crystallising these opportunities in FY2020E, with commercialisation to follow, potential drivers remain safety, practicality and cost.
Companies: Jubilee Platinum Verditek
Velocys has announced the appointment of Worley as its global engineering partner to manage the delivery of its fully integrated technology package. Velocys has also given details of the full suite of licenced technology partners to deliver the package in the UK and the USA. These are a strong group of partners with each one having successfully demonstrated their technology at commercial scale with similar feedstocks to those planned at Bayou and AltAlto. With the company now offering an improved negative carbon intensity on its Bayou project, it is clear that progress is being made.