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Parkmead’s portfolio has evolved to the point where it is now a full-cycle E&P company with a low-cost Dutch production base and a broad spectrum of high-quality UK growth opportunities, encompassing material development projects and an attractive range of risk/reward exploration. Recently, it has diversified into renewables, future proofing its equity story and opening up a new ‘investor-friendly’ avenue of growth. A core strength of this management team is its commercial acumen and portfolio-driven approach to optimising value. Parkmead has been in portfolio construction mode to date but is now well positioned to start crystallising its intrinsic value. We initiate with a risked-NAV based price target of 155p/sh. Investors would do well to get on-board with a management team that has a strong track record of delivering shareholder value.
Companies: Parkmead Group PLC
Edison Investment Research is terminating coverage on Diversified Gas & Oil (DGOC), Vermilion Energy (VET) and Circle Property (CRC). Please note you should no longer rely on any previous research or estimates for these companies. All forecasts should now be considered redundant.
Companies: Diversified Gas & Oil PLC
Panoro Energy (PEN NO)c; Target price of NOK23.00: Revisiting Gabon - BW Energy provided an update on Dussafu with FY20 production guidance expectation marginally below previous guidance (14.25 mbbl/d versus 15 16 mbbl/d) due to COVID-19 restrictions and OPEC+ quotas. This results in FY20 opex expected to be US$19/bbl which is slightly above the previous guidance of US$17-18/bbl. The drilling of DTM-7H, and the tie-in of DTM-6H and -7H, has been deferred to mid-2021 with first oil expected in 3Q21 and our estimate of the timing of the field production ramp-up has been delayed by one quarter. BWE continues to expect production from the Dussafu area to reach >30 mbbl/d in 2023 and ~40 mbbl/d in 2024. The Hibiscus development is expected to offer 15% IRR at
Companies: TGL TGA 88E FEC JSE LUPE LUNE LNDNF LYV NOG GB_NTRM NSTRY 3NO PANR P3K PTHRF PTAL TETY TETY AOI ENOG PEN SDX EGY
• In an Important development, PetroTal has signed a contract with an international oil trader for a pilot shipment to export 0.12 mmbbl into the Atlantic region using the Amazon river through Brazil. The shipment will be sold FOB Bretana, priced at the forward month Brent ICE price, and paid within two weeks of loading at Bretana. There are no subsequent oil price adjustments.
• At November 19, 2020, PetroTal had cash resources of US$9.8 mm, with accounts payable and accrued liabilities of ~US$39 mm, a reduction of ~US$11 mm from the end of 2Q20. The company has been paid US$5.5 mm for delivery of 0.192 mm bbl of oil to Petroperu in October. Production is constrained to ~5,000 bbl/d pending the reopening of the export pipeline.
• We understand that the pilot should start in December. This would not only provide ~US$5 mm in cash to PetroTal but also allow production to return to recent levels (11.5 mbbl/d), effectively unlocking the fundamental value of the asset.
Balance sheet considerations
The potential financial derivative liability has been reduced from US$22.5 mm at the end of June to US$17 mm at the end of September. Of the US$39 mm current payables 46% are not due before 2021 and we note that the company still holds US$13 mm in account receivables and US$4.7 mm in inventory.
Financials on “a back to normal” scenario with flat production
We are now assuming production remains constrained at 5 mbbl/d over 4Q20 with minimum capex with cashflow and receivables being used to repay the due payables over the period.
On production of just ~11.5 mbbl/d during 2021, we estimate operating cashflow of US$85 mm at US$48/bbl Brent. This would result in free cashflow of >US$40 mm assuming capex of US$20 mm to maintain production and US$20 mm to repay the remaining payables. This compares with a current market cap of just US$75 mm, suggesting FY21 free cashflow would represent over 50% of the current market cap in a no growth scenario assuming production can be exported.
Our target price of £0.45 per share represents 6x the current share price.
Companies: PetroTal Corp.
EQTEC has announced today that the Company and Scott Bros. Enterprises Limited have agreed to extend the exclusivity period of the Billingham MOU until 18 December 2020. The Billingham MOU has been subject to previous extensions, as announced on 23 October 2019, 23 June 2020 and 18 September 2020.
Companies: EQTEC PLC (KEU1:FRA)EQTEC PLC (EQT:LON)
Pantheon announced that is has contracted a rig to drill the Talitha well and that drilling operations are expected to commence in January 2021. The well will target four independent reservoirs, in three separate trapping sequences, which the company estimates has the potential to contain in the region of a billion barrels of recoverable oil, although ongoing work is required to formally delineate the full potential of the targets.
Companies: Pantheon Resources plc
The Prime Minister vowed last week to “restore Britain's position as the foremost naval power in Europe” and promised an extra £16.5bn in defence spending over the next four years. Mr Johnson expects this investment to “spur a renaissance of British shipbuilding across the UK”, and specifically mentioned five locations where this would occur, including Belfast and Appledore – the location of InfraStrata's shipyards. Other supportive policy initiatives emanating from the government include Mr Johnson's pledge in October that offshore wind will power every home in the country by 2030. We believe this demonstrable support from the highest level of government vindicates InfraStrata's strategy, and demonstrates the significant opportunities available to the company as it bids on numerous shipbuilding and fabrication contracts. We reaffirm our Buy rating.
Companies: InfraStrata plc
Salt Lake Potash's AGM update reported that the Lake Way project is now 74% complete. Construction of the process plant is on-schedule with practical completion and first SOP production planned for Q1/21. Drawdown of the Senior Facility Agreement funds and repayment of the Taurus bridge loan is expected soon.
Companies: Salt Lake Potash Limited
Jersey Oil & Gas announced today that is has entered into an agreement to acquire the entire share capital of CIECO V&C (UK) Limited, which is currently owned by two international entities headquartered in Japan. The acquisition secures an additional 12% working interest in Licence P2170 (Blocks 20/5b & 21/1d), which provides Jersey Oil & Gas with 100% of the licence. The licence contains the majority of the Verbier oil discovery in addition to three drill ready prospects: Verbier Deep, Wengen and Cortina. The acquired entity has approximately £15M of tax losses which will provide value to Jersey Oil & Gas. Consideration will consist of £150k in cash and contingent payments of i) £1.5M upon field development plan approval of Verbier within P2170 (as already discovered) by the OGA ii) £1.0M upon the 1st anniversary of attainment of first oil. The acquisition is conditional on OGA approval amongst other technicalities, which we do not anticipate will be problematic. The acquired entity will be free of debts.
Companies: Jersey Oil & Gas PLC
GeoPark (GPRK US)C; Target price of US$20.00: Divesting non-core asset in Brazil - GeoPark is selling its 10% non-operated working interest in the Manati gas field in Brazil to Gas Bridge for US$27 mm. We do not see much upside to the Brazilian asset (in terms of growing reserves or through exploration opportunities) and this divestment may allow GeoPark to reallocate resources to its core operations. We would rather see management remaining focused on deploying capital on higher return assets such as Colombia and Ecuador. Even after this week’s share price appreciation, our Core NAV continues to be 60% above the current share price. Our unrisked NAV for the 2021 drilling programme is ~US$9.00 per share, which represents ~90% of the current share price.
Panoro Energy (PEN NO)c; Target price of NOK23.00: 2021 will be a transformational year - 2020 has been a difficult year for the oil and gas industry and 2021 is a turning point for Panoro. In Gabon, development activities at Ruche are expected to return to normal with gross production set to grow to 20 mbbl/d. The company will also appraise Hibiscus to test the 155 mmbbl upside case (=2x existing 2P reserves). The development of Hibiscus is expected to be sanctioned. Importantly, while the existing FPSO has a nominal oil processing capacity of 45-45 mbbl/d, processing expansion is possible which allows for a potential oil production plateau of 70 mbbl/d. We estimate the value of Panoro’s reserves in Dussafu at NOK10.40 per share. Derisking the contingent resources in Gabon could add ~NOK3 per share. We estimate that the upside at Hibiscus has a further unrisked NAV of ~NOK10 per share for a total unrisked NAV of NOK23 per share for the discovered and “to be appraised” volumes in Gabon. Overall, including Nigeria, South Africa and Tunisia, we estimate the unrisked value of the 2021 activities at NOK30 per share; which represents 2.3x the share price. Our target price of NOK23 per share has been set close to our ReNAV.
Pharos Energy (PHAR LN)c; Target price of £0.35: Low cost. Quickly scalable. High impact, quality exploration – Pharos is a £ mm market cap, ~12 mboe/d oil producer that acquired the Egyptian assets of Merlon in 2019. Under the stewardship of a blue-chip management team that turned Cairn Energy from a micro-cap into a successful E&P that returned US$4.5 bn to shareholders, Pharos has undergone a multi-faceted transformation, enhancing governance and rebalancing its asset portfolio. Given the recent macro challenges, this process appears to have gone unnoticed by many investors. Pharos now holds ~50 mmboe 2P reserves in Egypt and Vietnam. Vietnam provides stable cash flows even at low oil prices. Egypt production can be increased rapidly (up to x2.5 to 13 mbbl/d) with additional investment. Pharos also holds world class exploration assets in Israel, Egypt and Vietnam. With a healthy balance sheet (cash: ~US$38 mm, net debt:~US$36 mm), Pharos’ shares trade at EV/DACF multiples of 5,000 bbl/d, increasing production from the Shaikan field by~15%. FY20 gross production is expected to be at the upper end of the 35,000 – 36,000 bbl/d production guidance, with the field currently producing at ~39,000 bbl/d.
LEKOIL (LEK LN): Requisition from large shareholder to change the board of the company - LEKOIL has received a letter from Metallon, holding 15.4% of the company, requisitioning an extraordinary general meeting to vote on the replacement of the Chairman and the appointment of Michael Ajukwu, Thomas Richardson and George Maxwell as directors of the company.
Orca Exploration (ORC.A/B CN): 3Q20 results - 3Q20 WI production in Tanzania was 60.9 mmcf/d. At the end of September, Orca held US$79.2 mmm in working capital including US$98.5 mm in cash and long-term debt
of US$54.2 mm.
Tullow Oil (TLW LN): Capital Market Day – 2020 production to date averages 75 mbbl/d with FY20 production guidance of 73-77 mbbl/d. Assuming an oil price of US$45/bbl in 2021 and US$55/bbl flat nominal from 2022 onwards, Tullow expects to generate US$7 bn of operating cashflow over the next 10 years with capex of US$2.7 bn. The first phase of investment will start in 2Q21 with the commencement of a multi-well drilling programme in Ghana. In Suriname, the prospective Goliathberg-Voltzberg North-1 well will spud in 1Q21.
Victoria Oil & Gas (VOG LN): Positive licence update in Cameroon – The duration of the onshore Matanda licence has been extended by one year to December 2021. The gross unrisked prospective resources are now estimated at 1,196 bcf, up from 903 bcf previously. 19 gas prospects haven identified in shallower Tertiary-aged reservoirs, plus 7 prospects in deeper, Cretaceous-aged prospects. The Company believes the largest of these prospects has mean unrisked Prospective Resources of >65 bcf, with geological Chance of Success estimated at >40%.
Companies: VOG BPC ENQ GPRK JOG JYOGF TPC1 7M7 0GEA MAHAA PEN PHAR RBD REP SENX TLW
Oil rose to the highest in nearly three months with positive Covid-19 vaccine developments paving the way for a more sustained recovery in oil demand.
Futures rose 5% in New York this week for a third straight weekly gain as Pfizer Inc and BioNTech SE requested emergency authorisation of their Covid vaccine Friday. Moderna Inc also released positive interim results from a final-stage trial and said it is close to seeking emergency authorisation. Still, further gains were limited by broader market declines amid a dispute between the White House and the Federal Reserve over emergency lending programmes.
Even with vaccines on the horizon, a recovery in oil demand faces obstacles with governments under pressure to tighten restrictions and curb the spread of the virus. UK Prime Minister, Boris Johnson's officials are considering tougher pandemic rules placed on broader regions of England next month after a national lockdown is set to end and the country returns to its tiered system. Meanwhile, the shift toward working from home may have a lasting chill on gasoline demand, according to Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City President Esther George.
The recent climb in headline prices has been accompanied by significant moves in timespreads, where traders bet on the price of oil in different months. The spread between West Texas Intermediate for December 2021 delivery and the following month moved to backwardation, while the closely watched gap between December 2021 and 2022 WTI contracts is close to also flipping.
West Texas Intermediate for December delivery, which expired Friday, rose 41 cents to settle at $42.15 a barrel.
The January contract rose 52 cents to end the session at $42.42 a barrel.
Brent for January settlement gained 76 cents to $44.96 a barrel. The contract rose 5.1% this week.
Pfizer and BioNTech's vaccine could be the first to be cleared for use, but first it must undergo a thorough vetting. The filing could enable its use by the middle to the end of December, the companies said in a statement. Yet, it could take at least three weeks for a US Food and Drug Administration decision.
Companies: FOG PVR 88E DGOC EME TRIN UOG
Acquisition of CIECO P2170 interest
Companies: JOG JYOGF TPC1
Shanta Gold (AIM: SHG) has announced this morning its production and operational results for the quarter ended 30th September 2020 – see Fig 1. Overall this was a robust performance (from one of the most consistent operators in the sector) in the face of the pandemic and a very busy quarter for the company at corporate level. QoQ production fell to 19,973 oz and AISC rose to $883/oz – both caused by a temporary drop in grade – but the ongoing strength in the gold price resulted in a 16% and 46% increase in EBITDA QoQ and YTD respectively. There was an increase in net debt to $5.1m which can be explained by the $7.1m cash outlay for the West Kenya projects as well as the reduction in the hedge book (they also have $5.9m of gold dore in the gold room). The company remains on track to hit its full year guidance of 80-85koz of production at an AISC of $830-880/oz which would make it the third year in a row they have hit their unaltered guidance for the year. This would be a remarkable achievement for a major gold miner operating in a developed market let alone one operating in the South West corner of Tanzania. Likewise the fact the company has recorded zero lost time injuries makes it nearly three years in a row with no LTIs. With the greenlight for Singida and a scoping study completed for the West Kenya Project during the quarter, the company can look forward to leveraging this operational expertise across a larger and longer life production base (c.220Koz of annualised production). We continue to believe the market is still to wake up to this given a market cap of US$219m, next to no debt and EBITDA annualising at $90m.
Companies: Shanta Gold Limited
Hargreaves’ AGM statement confirms a positive start to FY21, building on the resilient FY20 performance. Trading is in line with expectations, the Industrial Services business has won a number of new contracts, and Hargreaves Land is said to be close to announcing the completion of its first plot sale at Blindwells. In our view, the shares are yet to reflect the earnings growth forecast for the next three years or the prospect of a 20p total dividend, which is expected to be paid first in FY22 as previously restricted HRMS profits are distributed. A further update on trading will be provided in early December, ahead of interims at the end of January.
Companies: Hargreaves Services plc
Savannah’s acquisition of a key strategic Nigerian gas asset with strong growth potential has been ignored by the market. Its significant exploration success in Niger has also gone unrewarded. Delivery of the strong free cash flow potential these assets offer will re-rate the shares, which are materially undervalued. Management’s tenacity in getting the Seven Energy acquisition across the line alongside the impressive early progress with the acquired assets should give investors confidence. We initiate with a Buy rating and risked-NAV based price target of 49p/sh.
Companies: Savannah Energy Plc