Intermediates, Mid Caps & Small Caps
With this publication we briefly summarize our projections for 1Q16e quarterly results for the Junior E&P (Intermediate, Mid & Small Cap) segments of our coverage universe
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26 Apr 16
Domestic E&P Statistical Package and FD&A Review
With this publication we highlight various metrics and statistics forthcoming from yearend reserve books for our Domestic E&P coverage universe (Integrateds, Large Cap, Oilsands, Intermediate, Mid Cap, and Small Cap). Similar charts for YE2014 reserves can be found in our Statistical Package dated April 7, 2015.
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12 Apr 16
Resources Reports Year-End Financial Results, Updates Guidance
Yangarra reported year-end results with production, cash flow, capital expenditures, and net debt all largely as expected, as the Company had provided preliminary year-end estimates in an early January operations update. Recall the Company released its year-end reserve report one month ago as detailed in our Facts dated February 17, 2016. While previously alluding to a cash flow budget for 2016e, Management has put forth more formal guidance, with the Board of Directors approving a $24 mm capital budget that is expected to generate average annual production of 2,750- 3,000 boe/d. We have incorporated actual fourth quarter results and updated our forecast to align with Management’s new guidance. Based on the positive moves to our forecast we have maintained our Outperform ranking on a revised target price of $1.25 per share.
17 Mar 16
Yangarra Resources Reports 2015 Year-End Reserve Report
Current production volumes appear reasonably in line with our 1Q16e forecast. Yangarra reported year-end reserves which were up ~9% on a 2P basis, while the 2P NPV was up ~26% benefitting from improved economics as a result of the use of cemented liner technology, extended reach wells, and lower costs. We have updated our NAV methodology which continues to point towards considerable upside from current trading levels. We maintain our Outperform ranking on an elevated target price of $1.00 per share, which is based upon our updated NAV methodology on current strip pricing.
17 Feb 16
YANGARRA RESOURCES LTD. (YGR) ANNOUNCES 2015 YEAR END CORPORATE RESERVES INFORMATION
Impact: Slightly positive. Yangarra reported lower y/y reserves on a per share basis, but incorporated higher NPVs given improvements to play economics for the Company's core properties in central Alberta. For the year ended 2015, Deloitte has assigned PDP reserves of 5.6 mmboe, 1P reserves of 24.7 mmboe, and 2P reserves of 40.6 mmboe. This resulted in y/y per share growth of -18% for PDP, 3% for 1P, and -7% 2P. The Company noted significant improvements to economics throughout its central Alberta land base as a result of the use of cemented liner technology and extended reach wells, which helped boost corresponding NPVs despite a 40% decrease in Deloitte's US$ WTI forecast. Corresponding NPVs came in at $98 mm for PDP, $316 mm for 1P, and $500 mm for 2P based on Deloitte's year-end price deck.
16 Feb 16
Intermediate/Mid/Small Cap Commodity Price Update Impact
With this publication we highlight forecast revisions associated with our crude oil commodity price update. Concurrent within a dynamic time for E&Ps, some of which have already begun the process of 2016 capital budget downdrafts, revised estimates attempt to directionally capture a shift towards capital conservation, though severely weakened futures curves have influenced our thinking for the better part of 6 months anyway. We expect further capital investment reductions forthcoming from E&Ps in the coming weeks.
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08 Feb 16
YANGARRA RESOURCES LTD. (YGR) PROVIDES OPERATIONS UPDATE
Impact - neutral to slightly positive with no changes to the Company's previously released guidance while operationally the Company remains on track with recent well results looking to be in line to slightly ahead of our type curve assumptions.
07 Jan 16
New Commodity Price Outlook Impact
“Worse? How could they get any worse? Take a look around you, Ellen. We’re at the threshold of hell”. These are the words spoken by Clark Gris-wold in the holiday classic “Christmas Vacation”, and seem aptly suited for the general sentiment in the Canadian energy space at the moment as we roll out a summary of our regular forecast revisions extending from our most recent crude oil and natural gas price forecast update.
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14 Dec 15
FirstEnergy - DAILY RESEARCH SUMMARY
Canadian Natural Resources Limited (CNQ) Royalty Sale | PrairieSky Royalty Ltd. (PSK) Buying CNQ’s Royalty Assets and 3Q15 Results | Seven Generations Energy Ltd. (VII) Reports 3Q15 Financial Results Ahead of Expectations, Outlines 2016e Capital Budget of $1.10-$1.15 billion | Vermilion Energy Inc. (VET) Reports Third Quarter Results, Provides Preliminary 2016e Capital Spending Guidance | Yangarra Resources Ltd. (YGR) Announces 3Q15 Results In Line With Recently Revised Expectations | Tullow Oil Plc (TLW LN) & Africa Oil Corp. (AOI CN/SS): All Upstream Assets are Not Created Equal
YGR CNQ PSK VII VET TLW AOI ESI ENF
10 Nov 15
Yangarra Resources Provides Operations Update, TCPL Restrictions Continue to Take Toll on Sales Volumes
Yangarra provided an operations update with 2H15e production volumes coming in short of our expectations as the Company continues to work through ongoing TCPL restrictions in the region. That said, operationally the Company looks strong with significant cost reductions in both drilling and completions hitting the tape, and promising results from its latest 1.5 mile horizontal Cardium well, which should bode well for future development of the play.
26 Oct 15
INTERMEDIATES, MID CAPS & SMALL CAPS - 3Q15e Quarterly Preview
With this publication we briefly summarize our projections for 3Q15e quarterly results for our Junior E&P (Intermediate, Mid & Small Cap) coverage universe. Within the backdrop of continued weakness in the commodity price complex that saw the retrenchment of crude oil pricing during the quarter, after what was a short lived rally during the second quarter, we are anticipating yet another lacklustre reporting period in the Junior E&P space, with the key themes coming out of the quarter likely to be centered on further reductions to capital programs, ongoing takeaway capacity constraints, potential dividend cuts, reduced bank lines from fall credit reviews, continued weakness in the Station 2 and CREC natural gas price markers, and for some, the rollout of formal 2016e budgets.
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23 Oct 15
YANGARRA RESOURCES LTD. (YGR) PROVIDES OPERATIONS UPDATE
Impact - negative in the near-term given lower than anticipated 2H15 production volumes as a result of TCPL restrictions, although operationally the Company looks strong with significant cost reductions in both drilling and completions and promising results from its latest 1.5 mile horizontal Cardium well, while the Company's first glimpse at 2016e guidance is reasonably in line with our thinking
22 Oct 15
INTERMEDIATES, MID CAPS & SMALL CAPS - Crude Oil Downdraft, Though Remain Far More Constructive Than Current Forward Strip Would Suggest
With this publication we highlight forecast revisions stemming from an interim commodity price update centered around the crude oil pricing complex. Moves for crude oil weighted producers are significant, with 2016e cash flows down 12%-15%, and portended NAVs reduced sizably on the employment of a materially lower terminal value within the scope of the forecast period, though not reflective of the potential attrition in E&D capital investment and dividend policy should the current forward strip come to fruition in the cash market.
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31 Aug 15
Junior E&P 2Q15 Review
Within this publication we summarize changes to forward estimates coming off of the reporting of second quarter financial and operating results, highlighting equity price movements and a few valuation comparatives through to the end of 2016e.
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20 Aug 15
Yangarra Resources Second Quarter Results Impacted by TCPL Shut-ins
Yangarra reported second quarter results that materially trailed our expectations on all fronts, largely as a result of ongoing rolling TCPL sales line shut downs impacting the Company to the tune of ~650 boe/d, resulting in quarterly production that fell well short of our forecast.
12 Aug 15
INTERMEDIATES, MID CAPS & SMALL CAPS 2Q15e - Quarterly Preview
With this publication we briefly summarize our projections for 2Q15e quarterly results for our Junior E&P (Intermediate, Mid & Small Cap) coverage universe. In what could be viewed as the “Perfect Storm”, we are anticipating yet another weak reporting period in the Junior E&P space as continued deterioration of the commodity price complex will surely influence 2H15e capital investment plans, exacerbated by ongoing takeaway capacity constraints that have resulted in rolling shut-ins for many of the names that we cover, within the backdrop of an uncertain fiscal regime in Alberta in the interim. Typically the second quarter is already a relatively quiet period to begin with in terms of activity in the field due to the onset of spring breakup, though with most shuttering operations early in late February motivated in part to extract service cost deflation in a volatile pricing environment, activity specific to 2Q15e should be muted.
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23 Jul 15
Yangarra Resources First Quarter Results As Expected
Yangarra Resources reported first quarter results with production slightly behind expectations, although cash flow was in line with our thinking. With an operations update recently provided by the Company along with a concurrent financing, there was nothing new of significance in the quarterly release. Recall, at the end of April Yangarra announced a bought deal equity financing that will see the Company issue an aggregate of 9.9 mm common shares for gross proceeds of $20.0 mm.
15 May 15