Research, Charts & Company Announcements
Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on ADVANTAGE OIL & GAS LTD. We currently have 27 research reports from 1 professional analysts.
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ADVANTAGE OIL & GAS LTD
ADVANTAGE OIL & GAS LTD
Announces 2Q16 Financial Results as Expected, Grows Montney Footprint to 150 Net Sections
08 Aug 16
Advantage’s 2Q16 financial results were in line with expectations given a prior operational update in early July. The Company’s Montney land base now stands at 150 net sections given 12 (100% WI) new sections added to its Montney land base in 1H16, including 7 net sections around its core Glacier property estimated to boost the Company’s Montney well inventory by 10%. Based on implied returns of ~17% to our revised 12-month target price of $10.25 per share (up from $10.00 per share prior), we are tentatively revising our recommendation to Outperform.
ANNOUNCES 2Q16 FINANCIAL RESULTS AS EXPECTED, GROWS MONTNEY FOOTPRINT IN 1H16 TO 150 NET SECTIONS
05 Aug 16
Impact: Neutral to slightly positive. Advantage's 2Q16 financial results matched our expectations given a prior operational update, while 12 (100% WI) sections acquired in 1H16, particularly 7 net sections directly offsetting its core Glacier block, hold immediate drilling opportunities and will increase the Company's estimated drilling inventory here by ~10%.
2Q16e Quarterly Preview
26 Jul 16
Some Recovery on Segmented Cash Flow Generation Over Q1 Though Still Down 56% Y/Y. In aggregate, the Intermediate, Mid, and Small Cap groups are expected to generate 2Q16e cash flow of $1,281 mm, $183 mm, and $53 mm, or $1.517 billion in total, that while depressed relative to the same period last year (~$2.647 billion combined), is up 17% sequentially from the prior quarter, largely on the strength of crude oil price recovery in the period. Severely weak natural gas pricing picture markedly reversed into summer, market likely to ignore financials for natural gas producers and look ahead to winter and formalization of sell-side 2018e estimates in coming months. Spot AECO natural gas prices recently crested C$2.60/mcf, and with a reasonable alignment of previously distressed NE BC Stn2 differentials, augmented by a withdrawal expected next week, view the market psyche as constructive and looking ahead, with the analogy that this market is shaping up to mirror 2012 still holding. That said, with crude oil poised to retest support levels, combined with strong stock price performance broadly observed YTD, we would characterize sentiment as slightly pessimistic in the near-term which could reduce or unwind momentum-based investment strategies that have worked thus far in 2016.
Advantage Reports Strong Production Growth, Lower Operating Costs in 2Q16e
07 Jul 16
Advantage grew its corporate production to 35,000 boe/d including liquids volumes of 1,050 bbl/d in 2Q16, which is in line to slightly ahead of our prior forecast.Strong well performance, particularly from the Lower and Middle Montney, continued to drive reductions to the Company’s operating costs to $0.30/mcfe (down 14% over 1Q16 levels) and resulted in record low total cash costs of $0.60/ mcfe in the period.We have maintained both our Top Pick recommendation and $10.00 per share target price.
RECENT RESULTS STRENGTHEN OPERATIONAL & FINANCIAL FLEXIBILITY FOR PLANNED GROWTH TO 350 MMCFE/D (58,330 BOE/D)
06 Jul 16
Impact: Positive. In 2Q16e, Advantage's corporate and liquids production are consistent with our estimates while strong well performance, particularly in the Lower and Middle Montney, continued to drive reductions to the Company's operating costs to $0.30/mcfe (down 14%) and resulted in record low total cash costs of $0.60/mcfe in the period.
Reports First Quarter Results, Closes $100 mm Financing
06 May 16
Advantage reported first quarter financial and operating results that were in line to below expectations, with cash flow lower solely based on lower than anticipated realized hedging gains. The Company will have demonstrated one of the strongest y/y debt-adjusted growth rates in a while, keeping in mind that volumes are ~24% higher than that reported in 1Q16. The Company’s low cost structure remains intact. We have reduced our 12-month target price mildly to $10.00/sh and continue to offer a Top Pick ranking.
Strong trading leads to upgrades
22 Mar 17
On the back of today’s positive trading update and slightly upgraded profit forecasts for FY2017, FY2018 and FY2019 we have reviewed our DCF analysis. This has led to an increased DCF valuation per share of 1500p (from 1200p) which we have made our new target price (from 1200p). Both TFP and JC Paper have contributed to the upgrades shown in the table below as have favourable currency movements. With the potential for further upgrades due to capitalising 3DP costs to come we maintain our Add recommendation.
Small Cap Breakfast
21 Mar 17
First Sentinel—Investment company expecting NEX admission/introduction on 24 March. £636k raised pre-IPO. BioPharma Credit—Expected Gross Initial Acquisition Proceeds now c.$338m. Gross Cash Proceeds capped at $423m with placing and open offer. Results expected 23 March with admission now due 30 march. Tufton Oceanic Assets- The Company intends to invest in a diversified portfolio of second hand commercial sea-going vessels where the Investment Manager believes that an attractive opportunity exists in shipping. $150m raise. Admission 3 April.
Bang to rights
21 Mar 17
Tullow unexpectedly announced a US$750m rights issue on Friday at a 45.2% discount to the previous close. While this step confirms our investment thesis, the scale of the discount and the timing look like a slap in the face for investors and/or indicative of a weaker financial position than we are modelling. We publish revised estimates to reflect the impact of the issue and cut our Target Price to 215p per share (from 245p). We maintain our Hold recommendation.
Panmure Morning Note 22-03-2017
22 Mar 17
Acacia Mining and Endeavour Mining confirmed merger talks have now ended with Endeavour claiming an inability to “create adequate value for Endeavour shareholders”, most likely, we believe, given the disappointing ruling from the Tanzanian government on copper-gold concentrate sales. We were positive on the merger and believed a credible London listed Pan-African producer capable of challenging Randgold, would have been established. We make no change to our Hold recommendation today, and expect the shares to be marked lower in early trade.