Research, Charts & Company Announcements
Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on ARC RESOURCES LTD. We currently have 23 research reports from 1 professional analysts.
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ARC RESOURCES LTD
ARC RESOURCES LTD
Reports 2Q16 Results, Strategic Cardium Acquisitions, and Revised Guidance
29 Jul 16
ARC reported second quarter results that modestly trailed consensus expectations, with production impacted by pipeline restrictions in the quarter, while cash flow came up short due to the lower volumes and cash taxes in the period. More importantly the Company entered into two strategic acquisitions in the Cardium at accretive metrics that further builds out its working interest in the region, while allowing for increased control over the pace of development. The Board of Directors has approved a $60 mm increase to the E&D capital program, and coupled with the aforementioned acquisition, results in a bump to average annual production guidance to 118,000-122,000 boe/d. Incorporating the acquisitions and new guidance results in positive moves to our forecast. In keeping our 2017e EV/DACF multiple intact, we have increased our target price to $27.00 per share and have maintained our Outperform ranking.
2Q16e Quarterly Preview
26 Jul 16
Some Recovery on Segmented Cash Flow Generation Over Q1 Though Still Down 56% Y/Y. In aggregate, the Intermediate, Mid, and Small Cap groups are expected to generate 2Q16e cash flow of $1,281 mm, $183 mm, and $53 mm, or $1.517 billion in total, that while depressed relative to the same period last year (~$2.647 billion combined), is up 17% sequentially from the prior quarter, largely on the strength of crude oil price recovery in the period. Severely weak natural gas pricing picture markedly reversed into summer, market likely to ignore financials for natural gas producers and look ahead to winter and formalization of sell-side 2018e estimates in coming months. Spot AECO natural gas prices recently crested C$2.60/mcf, and with a reasonable alignment of previously distressed NE BC Stn2 differentials, augmented by a withdrawal expected next week, view the market psyche as constructive and looking ahead, with the analogy that this market is shaping up to mirror 2012 still holding. That said, with crude oil poised to retest support levels, combined with strong stock price performance broadly observed YTD, we would characterize sentiment as slightly pessimistic in the near-term which could reduce or unwind momentum-based investment strategies that have worked thus far in 2016.
28 Jun 16
We recently had the pleasure of hosting the ARC management team to run through the Company's latest presentation. Management remains focused on maintaining the Company's balance sheet strength with targeted debt to cash flow in the range of 1.0x to 1.5x. The Company remains active in terms of its hedge book and continues to layer on hedges through to 2020 in conjunction with planned infrastructure build outs.
Intermediates, Mid Caps & Small Cap Commodity Price Update
23 Jun 16
With this publication we highlight forecast revisions associated with our commodity price update (Natural Gas Update; Crude Oil Update), reaffirming a view of commodity price recovery in 2017e. In the interim until then, 2016e Canadian oil price realizations are up ~11% in the synthetic and Edmonton Light streams, with heavy WCS crude up ~20% which is amplified by Canadian oilsands output curtailments. While 2016e Canadian natural gas prices are projected to be ~20% lower, we expect much of this effect to be mitigated by strong hedging positions this year, and remain focused on price recovery next year with very strong increases reflected in both the strip and our revised forecast. Overall, broad valuations are flat to slightly higher coming out of this exercise, with oil/ liquids levered entities observing the highest 2017e CFO uptick. We remain constructive on the space, though the market will need to look past a trough of potentially weak pricing this summer.
Reports Strong 1Q16 Results
29 Apr 16
ARC reported strong first quarter results that came in ahead of both our expectations and the consensus in a difficult period that saw a precipitous drop in commodity prices.The Company capped off the first quarter in a position of strength both financially and operationally, with a pristine balance sheet and the Company’s Montney assets exceeding expectations. Management has maintained its previously announced 2016e guidance, although given first quarter results we would not be surprised to see positive revisions to annual guidance as the year progresses. First quarter results remain supportive of our view on this name as one of our top ideas in the yield space, and thus we have maintained our Outperform ranking along with our $22.00 per share target price.
08 Dec 16
Elderstreet stake acquired 02 GENERAL NEWS Globalworth premium In this issue Venture capital firm Draper Esprit has taken a 30.8% stake in venture capital trust manager Elderstreet. Both investment managers focus on the technology sector and they will be able to co-invest. Elderstreet has investments in a number of AIM-quoted companies through its VCTs. The purchase was funded by an issue of Draper Esprit shares worth just over £250,000. Simon Cook, the chief executive of Draper Esprit, is a former partner at Elderstreet so he knows the business and the people who run it, although he did leave more than 14 years ago. Cook has previously acquired portfolios from 3i and Cazenove, two other firms where he has worked. Draper Esprit has an option to acquire the remaining shares in Elderstreet, which has more than £25m under management. Adding Elderstreet to the group enables Draper Esprit to offer investors a range of EIS funds, VCTs and an ISA qualifying listed evergreen patient capital fund. The enlarged group has venture capital assets under management of more than £350m. At the end of September 2016, Draper Esprit had a net asset value of 352p a share, which is similar to the current share price. The June 2016 flotation price was 300p a share. Draper Esprit is quoted on Ireland’s Enterprise Securities Market as well as AIM.
01 Nov 16
Since our last outlook note, Quadrise has begun to supply MSAR for extended LONO sea trials, paving the way for commercial adoption from calendar H217 onwards. In August it signed a memorandum of understanding with clients in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA), which is a key enabler for progressing the production-to-combustion pilot there. In October it completed a placing and open offer raising a total of £5.25m (gross). This should enable it to transition comfortably to the commercial phase on successful completion of the LONO and KSA trials.
Raising Target Price to 2,500p per share
01 Nov 16
Royal Dutch reported clean EPS of US$0.35, nearly 50% ahead of consensus. More importantly, cash flow jumped QoQ to US$8.5bn which should go a long way to confirming Shell’s capacity to maintain the current dividend, despite the increase in gearing to 29.2%. Upstream returned to profitability on an underlying basis for the first time since 1Q15. We believe these results confirm our view that Shell’s dividend can and will be maintained at US$0.47 per quarter and we increase our Target Price to 2,500p per share, given further sterling weakness.
Conviction List Q4 2016
05 Oct 16
Since its inception in 2010, the Conviction List has outperformed the market in 13 of 18 periods and a reinvested Conviction List would have returned 255% against a Small Companies index that would have returned 130%. Our Conviction List returned 3.7% over the last quarter; this was set against the benchmark UK Small Companies index that returned 11.3% over the same period. Our Q4 portfolio reflects our outlook for a temporary sweet spot for UK growth during the second half of 2016. The downside risk from the uncertainty of the EU Referendum result has been countered by stimulus from the Bank of England, signs of a looser fiscal stance and an 18% YoY reduction in the Sterling Exchange Rate. Compressed corporate fixed income spreads continue to provide a valuation underpin for global equities.
Extending Lancaster along the Rona Ridge
23 Nov 16
In September 2016, the 205/21a-7 pilot well helped confirm a continuous oil column below Lancaster basement structural closure. Hurricane is looking to extend this play along the Rona Ridge through the exploration of analogues, Lincoln and Halifax. Management estimates combined gross unrisked prospective resource of over 500mmbbls, offering potential for a significant increase to the 300mmbls we currently assume for Lancaster. In our updated valuation, we incorporate the dilutive impact of Hurricane’s October 2016 fund-raise, offset by the inclusion of risked prospective value for Lincoln and Halifax. Our RENAV increases from 73p/share to 75p/share (+3%).