Research, Charts & Company Announcements
Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on ARC RESOURCES LTD. We currently have 23 research reports from 1 professional analysts.
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ARC RESOURCES LTD
ARC RESOURCES LTD
Reports 2Q16 Results, Strategic Cardium Acquisitions, and Revised Guidance
29 Jul 16
ARC reported second quarter results that modestly trailed consensus expectations, with production impacted by pipeline restrictions in the quarter, while cash flow came up short due to the lower volumes and cash taxes in the period. More importantly the Company entered into two strategic acquisitions in the Cardium at accretive metrics that further builds out its working interest in the region, while allowing for increased control over the pace of development. The Board of Directors has approved a $60 mm increase to the E&D capital program, and coupled with the aforementioned acquisition, results in a bump to average annual production guidance to 118,000-122,000 boe/d. Incorporating the acquisitions and new guidance results in positive moves to our forecast. In keeping our 2017e EV/DACF multiple intact, we have increased our target price to $27.00 per share and have maintained our Outperform ranking.
2Q16e Quarterly Preview
26 Jul 16
Some Recovery on Segmented Cash Flow Generation Over Q1 Though Still Down 56% Y/Y. In aggregate, the Intermediate, Mid, and Small Cap groups are expected to generate 2Q16e cash flow of $1,281 mm, $183 mm, and $53 mm, or $1.517 billion in total, that while depressed relative to the same period last year (~$2.647 billion combined), is up 17% sequentially from the prior quarter, largely on the strength of crude oil price recovery in the period. Severely weak natural gas pricing picture markedly reversed into summer, market likely to ignore financials for natural gas producers and look ahead to winter and formalization of sell-side 2018e estimates in coming months. Spot AECO natural gas prices recently crested C$2.60/mcf, and with a reasonable alignment of previously distressed NE BC Stn2 differentials, augmented by a withdrawal expected next week, view the market psyche as constructive and looking ahead, with the analogy that this market is shaping up to mirror 2012 still holding. That said, with crude oil poised to retest support levels, combined with strong stock price performance broadly observed YTD, we would characterize sentiment as slightly pessimistic in the near-term which could reduce or unwind momentum-based investment strategies that have worked thus far in 2016.
28 Jun 16
We recently had the pleasure of hosting the ARC management team to run through the Company's latest presentation. Management remains focused on maintaining the Company's balance sheet strength with targeted debt to cash flow in the range of 1.0x to 1.5x. The Company remains active in terms of its hedge book and continues to layer on hedges through to 2020 in conjunction with planned infrastructure build outs.
Intermediates, Mid Caps & Small Cap Commodity Price Update
23 Jun 16
With this publication we highlight forecast revisions associated with our commodity price update (Natural Gas Update; Crude Oil Update), reaffirming a view of commodity price recovery in 2017e. In the interim until then, 2016e Canadian oil price realizations are up ~11% in the synthetic and Edmonton Light streams, with heavy WCS crude up ~20% which is amplified by Canadian oilsands output curtailments. While 2016e Canadian natural gas prices are projected to be ~20% lower, we expect much of this effect to be mitigated by strong hedging positions this year, and remain focused on price recovery next year with very strong increases reflected in both the strip and our revised forecast. Overall, broad valuations are flat to slightly higher coming out of this exercise, with oil/ liquids levered entities observing the highest 2017e CFO uptick. We remain constructive on the space, though the market will need to look past a trough of potentially weak pricing this summer.
Reports Strong 1Q16 Results
29 Apr 16
ARC reported strong first quarter results that came in ahead of both our expectations and the consensus in a difficult period that saw a precipitous drop in commodity prices.The Company capped off the first quarter in a position of strength both financially and operationally, with a pristine balance sheet and the Company’s Montney assets exceeding expectations. Management has maintained its previously announced 2016e guidance, although given first quarter results we would not be surprised to see positive revisions to annual guidance as the year progresses. First quarter results remain supportive of our view on this name as one of our top ideas in the yield space, and thus we have maintained our Outperform ranking along with our $22.00 per share target price.
The Slide Rule
12 Jan 17
What is The Slide Rule? The Slide Rule has been designed to dramatically simplify the identification of the best companies in the UK small/mid-cap sector by making a quantitative assessment of the relative potential of each company. At its core, The Slide Rule aims to identify those companies that create genuine shareholder value through strong returns on capital and solid growth, but also present a value opportunity with the potential tailwind of earnings momentum. Companies are assessed within a Quality, Value, Growth and Momentum (QVGM) framework.
The Monthly January 2017
09 Jan 17
Despite all the hullaballoo of the Brexit vote and the subsequent election of Donald Trump as the next US President, the UK stock market prospered last year, especially in the latter few months of 2016. The combination of a depreciating currency – making $ earnings more valuable in relative terms - and the Trump emphasis on infrastructure expenditure drove the stock market higher
Small Cap Breakfast
17 Jan 17
Global Energy Development (GED.L) — To be renamed Nautilus Marine Services. Schedule 1 from developer and seller of hydrocarbons and related products. Reverse takeover. Raising $10.5m via a convertible. Expected 9 Feb. Eco (Atlantic) Oil & Gas—TSX-V listed oil and gas exploration has announced its intention to float on AIM. Assets in Guyana and Namibia. Proposed £2m-£3m fundraise. Diversified Gas & Oil—According to LSE website first day of trading on AIM now expected for 30 January.
Minor delay but lower cost and better visibility enhance the investment profile
13 Jan 17
First oil at Stella is delayed by about a month, reducing the contribution of Stella to FY17 production by the same period. While this has an impact on FY17e free cash flow, this is negligible to our valuation. More importantly, FY17 opex are estimated at only US$18/boe, below our estimates of US$20/boe. There are opportunities to reduce opex further. Harrier is expected to reach first oil in 2018, one year earlier than we expected and at a cost of US$40 mm lower than we anticipated. The overall development cost is less than US$6.0/boe. Ithaca holds numerous discoveries around Stella that would be developed with a similar cost structure to Harrier.
10 for 17
09 Jan 17
As always at the start of a year, there are significant uncertainties about the year ahead but I think in 2017, the level of uncertainly has decisively moved up a gear. In fact, a leading economist at the LSE, Ethan Ilzetzki, was recently quoted as saying “I view the current global economic environment as the most uncertain in modern history”. Wow.