Research, Charts & Company Announcements
Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on ATHABASCA OIL CORP. We currently have 30 research reports from 1 professional analysts.
|09Feb17 22:32||MKW||Athabasca Oil Corporation Commences Cash Tender Offer and Related Consent Solicitation for Outstanding Canadian Dollar 7.50% Senior Secured Second Lien Notes due 2017|
|09Feb17 22:31||MKW||Athabasca Oil Corporation Announces Balance Sheet Refinancing and Strategic Update|
|31Jan17 21:48||MKW||Athabasca Oil Corporation Closes Transformational Acquisition of High Quality Thermal Oil Assets from Statoil ASA|
|11Mar16 03:38||MKW||Athabasca Oil Corporation Reports 2015 Year-end Results and Reserves|
|03Mar16 21:30||MKW||Athabasca Oil Corporation to Hold 2015 Year-End Conference Call|
|27Jan16 22:15||MKW||Athabasca Oil Announces C$475 Million (Net) Light Oil Joint Venture With Murphy Oil and Exceeds 2015 Corporate Exit Guidance|
|05Nov15 01:29||MKW||Athabasca Oil Corporation Reports Third Quarter 2015 Financial and Operating Results|
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Research reports on
ATHABASCA OIL CORP
ATHABASCA OIL CORP
Commodity Price Update – Impact on Integrateds, Large Cap E&P, Oilsands
28 Sep 16
3Q16e WTI prices look set to average ~US$44.50/bbl vs. our $50.00/bbl prior estimate. We have also reduced our 4Q16e WTI forecasts by US$5.00 to US$50.00/ bbl, but left our 2016e+ oil & gas price deck largely unchanged. For the second time in three months we are increasing our forecasts for Canadian refined product premiums relative to New York Harbor.
RECEIVES FINAL PAYMENT FROM BRION (PETROCHINA)
29 Aug 16
Athabasca announced that it has received the final payment ($139 mm) from Brion Energy Corporation (PetroChina) for consideration of the sale of ATH's remaining 40% stake in Dover in 2014, thus bringing to a conclusion the relationship between Athabasca and PetroChina that began with the announcement of the $1.9 billion oilsands JV transaction in late 2009.
2Q16 Results, Increased Montney Spending
11 Aug 16
Recent transactions (Murphy JV, bitumen royalty sale, term loan repayment) improve ATH’s liquidity ahead of a $550 mm debt maturity next year, with possible partial repayment YE16e. Hangingstone appears on track to near nameplate capacity by year-end. The 2H16e budget increased $60 mm to drill 12 new Placid Montney wells. Our estimates have been updated in lieu of new Light Oil division guidance for 2016e and beyond. Upgrading to Outperform. The shares are being discounted due to uncertainty over debt refinancing, Hangingstone ramp up, and Light Oil deliverability. Delivering against these expectations will be key for ATH’s stock.
2Q16 RESULTS, UPDATED GUIDANCE
27 Jul 16
Market Impact: Neutral. Quarterly disclosures were highlighted by an additional $60 mm added to Light Oil capex for 2016e, while perhaps unsurprisingly, production guidance was lowered due to disruptions at Hangingstone from wildfires, but ATH continues to expect nameplate capacity to be hit by year end. 2Q16 production (11.1 mboe/d) was slightly ahead of our expectations and CFPS slightly below (-$0.07/share diluted).
Integrateds, Oilsands & Large Caps
20 Jul 16
The Fort McMurray wildfire took more than 1.2 mmbbl/d of oilsands production offline at one point, disrupting operations of many companies within our coverage universe. We expect production estimates for many oilsands producers (HSE, IMO, SU, ATH) to be more varied than usual with more variables to account for than usual (downtime, ramp up, sales volumes). SCO prices were boosted by the wildfire, with CNQ best positioned to have taken advantage, given the upgrader at Horizon was only mildly affected by wildfires. CVE, HSE and SU likely benefited from a positive FIFO impact. We estimate a positive FIFO impact of $4-5/bbl of throughput assuming a 30 day lag, with a larger positive FIFO impact on longer lags. We are generally close to consensus for most CFPS estimates, with the exception of Suncor, where we are estimating $0.34/share versus consensus at $0.44/share. There are no target price or ranking changes with this publication.
20 Feb 17
Hayward Tyler Group* (HAYT): Trading update and financial position (CORP) | Petra Diamonds (PDL): Interim results (BUY) | Gemfields* (GEM): Interim results (CORP) | Premaitha Health* (NIPT): Middle East momentum (CORP) | Sound Energy (SOU): Acquisition update and TE-8 well spud (HOLD) | Proactis* (PHD): Interim trading on track (CORP) | 7digital* (7DIG): Automotive contract win (CORP)
The Slide Rule
12 Jan 17
What is The Slide Rule? The Slide Rule has been designed to dramatically simplify the identification of the best companies in the UK small/mid-cap sector by making a quantitative assessment of the relative potential of each company. At its core, The Slide Rule aims to identify those companies that create genuine shareholder value through strong returns on capital and solid growth, but also present a value opportunity with the potential tailwind of earnings momentum. Companies are assessed within a Quality, Value, Growth and Momentum (QVGM) framework.
Small Cap Breakfast
16 Feb 17
Saffron Energy—Schedule One update. Raising £2.5m, expected Mkt Cap £7.7m. Admission due 24 Feb. Italian Oil & Gas Play Guinness Oil & Gas Exploration—Publication of prospectus. Seeking to raise £50m and invest in 15 exploration companies at launch, with plans to grow the portfolio to 30 positions during its lifetime. Issue closing 23 Feb. Arix Bioscience — Intention to float on the main market from the global healthcare and life science Company supporting medical innovation. Raised £52m in Feb 16 with investors including Woodford Investment Management
Playing the long term, with short-term risks
16 Feb 17
After the publication of the annual results, we update our view and highlight the key points. Q4 16 key highlights As a reminder, the company reported results 30% below expectations at $400m for Q4 16. By division: 1) In upstream, underlying replacement costs profit came to $400m, vs. a loss a year earlier of $728m and a loss of $224m in Q3 16, reflecting the ongoing lower costs which have benefited from simplifications, efficiencies and lower exploration write-offs. In the US, the loss is still $147m. Production came in at 2.19mbpd, down 5.5% yoy due to disposals and up 1.8% on an underlying basis thanks to ramp-ups. One of the key events during the quarter was the renewal of BP’s onshore concession in the UAE with a 10% interest in the ADCO onshore oil concession. In terms of outlook, production should be higher in 2017 and will depend on the timing of project start-ups, acquisitions, divestments, and OPEC quota. Also the Abu Dhabi concession will be visible as from Q1 17. 2) In downstream, replacement costs profit came to $877m, down from $1.2bn a year ago and $1.4bn in Q3 16. The US division showed a loss of $371m vs a gain of $1.25bn. Non-US Fuel business earnings halved to $417m due to the weaker refining environment as well as the impact from the particularly large turnaround at the Whiting refinery. In lubricants, profit rose to $357m, reflecting the continued strong performance in its growth markets and premium brands as well as simplifications and greater efficiencies. The margin should remain unchanged for Q1 17. 3) Rosneft. Underlying replacement costs profit came to $135m, down from $235m a year ago, affected by the increased government take. Production was at 1.15mbpd, up from 1.03mbpd a year ago. This reflects the completion of the acquisition of Bashneft and Rosneft’s increased stake in the PetroMonagas venture. BP received a dividend of $322m after deduction of the withholding tax, in July 2016. On the Macondo oil spill, the charge taken for the Q4 16 pre-tax was $530m. This reflects BP’s latest estimates for claims including business economic loss. The pre-tax cash outflow on costs related to the oil spill for the full year 2016 was $7.1bn. Cash flow Excluding the Gulf of Mexico payment, the operating cash flow was $4.5bn. Underlying operating cash flow excluding the oil spill-related payment was $17.8bn for the full year. Proceeds during the year and the scrip dividend were not enough to cover capex and the cash dividend. Gearing at the end of the year increased to 27% ($35.5bn debt), in the high range of the group’s target of 20-30%. Organic capital was $16bn, below original guidance of $17bn to $19bn. Capex in 2017 should be close to $16-17bn. Divestment proceeds should be higher in 2017, close to $5bn and then reducing by $2-3bn per year after 2018. The total costs of the Deepwater payment should fall to $2bn in 2018 and then $1bn per year as from 2019. In 2017, this should be close to $5bn. All in all, including the latest acquisitions, cash flow break-even should be close to $60/bbl in 2017.
Share & share alike
14 Feb 17
The rally in the last fortnight, highlighted in the table, reflects a continued flow of positive updates and economic news. The FTSE 250, Small cap and Fledgling indices have reached record highs. We are in the lull ahead of results for those companies with a December year end, a welter of economic data regarding the UK economy, the State of the Union address in the US on 28 February and the UK Budget on Wednesday 8 March. We will learn at that stage the latest forecasts from the Office of Budget Responsibility. As highlighted previously, the reaction to corporate updates will continue to set the tone.
GMP FirstEnergy ― UK Energy morning research package
17 Feb 17
Enquest (ENQ LN): Speculative Buy, £0.65: Kraken FPSO in the field and hooked up in the North Sea | Ithaca Energy (IAE LN/CN)6: BUY, £1.40: Stella First Hydrocarbons in the North Sea | Bowleven (BLVN LN) (not covered): Denies claims made by Crown Ocean Capital