Research, Charts & Company Announcements
Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on ATHABASCA OIL CORP. We currently have 30 research reports from 1 professional analysts.
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Research reports on
ATHABASCA OIL CORP
ATHABASCA OIL CORP
Commodity Price Update – Impact on Integrateds, Large Cap E&P, Oilsands
28 Sep 16
3Q16e WTI prices look set to average ~US$44.50/bbl vs. our $50.00/bbl prior estimate. We have also reduced our 4Q16e WTI forecasts by US$5.00 to US$50.00/ bbl, but left our 2016e+ oil & gas price deck largely unchanged. For the second time in three months we are increasing our forecasts for Canadian refined product premiums relative to New York Harbor.
RECEIVES FINAL PAYMENT FROM BRION (PETROCHINA)
29 Aug 16
Athabasca announced that it has received the final payment ($139 mm) from Brion Energy Corporation (PetroChina) for consideration of the sale of ATH's remaining 40% stake in Dover in 2014, thus bringing to a conclusion the relationship between Athabasca and PetroChina that began with the announcement of the $1.9 billion oilsands JV transaction in late 2009.
2Q16 Results, Increased Montney Spending
11 Aug 16
Recent transactions (Murphy JV, bitumen royalty sale, term loan repayment) improve ATH’s liquidity ahead of a $550 mm debt maturity next year, with possible partial repayment YE16e. Hangingstone appears on track to near nameplate capacity by year-end. The 2H16e budget increased $60 mm to drill 12 new Placid Montney wells. Our estimates have been updated in lieu of new Light Oil division guidance for 2016e and beyond. Upgrading to Outperform. The shares are being discounted due to uncertainty over debt refinancing, Hangingstone ramp up, and Light Oil deliverability. Delivering against these expectations will be key for ATH’s stock.
2Q16 RESULTS, UPDATED GUIDANCE
27 Jul 16
Market Impact: Neutral. Quarterly disclosures were highlighted by an additional $60 mm added to Light Oil capex for 2016e, while perhaps unsurprisingly, production guidance was lowered due to disruptions at Hangingstone from wildfires, but ATH continues to expect nameplate capacity to be hit by year end. 2Q16 production (11.1 mboe/d) was slightly ahead of our expectations and CFPS slightly below (-$0.07/share diluted).
Integrateds, Oilsands & Large Caps
20 Jul 16
The Fort McMurray wildfire took more than 1.2 mmbbl/d of oilsands production offline at one point, disrupting operations of many companies within our coverage universe. We expect production estimates for many oilsands producers (HSE, IMO, SU, ATH) to be more varied than usual with more variables to account for than usual (downtime, ramp up, sales volumes). SCO prices were boosted by the wildfire, with CNQ best positioned to have taken advantage, given the upgrader at Horizon was only mildly affected by wildfires. CVE, HSE and SU likely benefited from a positive FIFO impact. We estimate a positive FIFO impact of $4-5/bbl of throughput assuming a 30 day lag, with a larger positive FIFO impact on longer lags. We are generally close to consensus for most CFPS estimates, with the exception of Suncor, where we are estimating $0.34/share versus consensus at $0.44/share. There are no target price or ranking changes with this publication.
The Slide Rule
12 Jan 17
What is The Slide Rule? The Slide Rule has been designed to dramatically simplify the identification of the best companies in the UK small/mid-cap sector by making a quantitative assessment of the relative potential of each company. At its core, The Slide Rule aims to identify those companies that create genuine shareholder value through strong returns on capital and solid growth, but also present a value opportunity with the potential tailwind of earnings momentum. Companies are assessed within a Quality, Value, Growth and Momentum (QVGM) framework.
The Monthly January 2017
09 Jan 17
Despite all the hullaballoo of the Brexit vote and the subsequent election of Donald Trump as the next US President, the UK stock market prospered last year, especially in the latter few months of 2016. The combination of a depreciating currency – making $ earnings more valuable in relative terms - and the Trump emphasis on infrastructure expenditure drove the stock market higher
Small Cap Breakfast
17 Jan 17
Global Energy Development (GED.L) — To be renamed Nautilus Marine Services. Schedule 1 from developer and seller of hydrocarbons and related products. Reverse takeover. Raising $10.5m via a convertible. Expected 9 Feb. Eco (Atlantic) Oil & Gas—TSX-V listed oil and gas exploration has announced its intention to float on AIM. Assets in Guyana and Namibia. Proposed £2m-£3m fundraise. Diversified Gas & Oil—According to LSE website first day of trading on AIM now expected for 30 January.
Minor delay but lower cost and better visibility enhance the investment profile
13 Jan 17
First oil at Stella is delayed by about a month, reducing the contribution of Stella to FY17 production by the same period. While this has an impact on FY17e free cash flow, this is negligible to our valuation. More importantly, FY17 opex are estimated at only US$18/boe, below our estimates of US$20/boe. There are opportunities to reduce opex further. Harrier is expected to reach first oil in 2018, one year earlier than we expected and at a cost of US$40 mm lower than we anticipated. The overall development cost is less than US$6.0/boe. Ithaca holds numerous discoveries around Stella that would be developed with a similar cost structure to Harrier.
16 Jan 17
We take a look at the rankings of the various countries in Africa that have a significant exposure to mining. We take the Transparency International corruption rankings as our starting point and modify these for exceptional geology and for current UK government travel warnings. Ghana, Botswana and Namibia come out as our top three, with Eritrea, Kenya and Zimbabwe at the bottom of our rankings.