Research, Charts & Company Announcements
Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on BAYTEX ENERGY CORP. We currently have 26 research reports from 1 professional analysts.
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BAYTEX ENERGY CORP
BAYTEX ENERGY CORP
2Q16 Results, Updated Guidance, Asset Divestitures
04 Aug 16
016 capex guidance was revised $32.5 mm lower at the midpoint to $200-$225 mm, a result of paring back the Eagle Ford development pace. Lower capex plus minor asset sales led to lower 2016e production guidance, down 2 mboe/d to 67-69 mboe/d. 2Q16 CFPS of $0.39/share (diluted) was in line with our prior $0.38/share estimate and higher than consensus at $0.34/share. Production was in line, while organic capex was much lower than we estimated ($36 mm versus our $59 mm estimate). No change to $7.50/share target price. Upgrading to Outperform.
2Q16e Quarterly Preview
26 Jul 16
Some Recovery on Segmented Cash Flow Generation Over Q1 Though Still Down 56% Y/Y. In aggregate, the Intermediate, Mid, and Small Cap groups are expected to generate 2Q16e cash flow of $1,281 mm, $183 mm, and $53 mm, or $1.517 billion in total, that while depressed relative to the same period last year (~$2.647 billion combined), is up 17% sequentially from the prior quarter, largely on the strength of crude oil price recovery in the period. Severely weak natural gas pricing picture markedly reversed into summer, market likely to ignore financials for natural gas producers and look ahead to winter and formalization of sell-side 2018e estimates in coming months. Spot AECO natural gas prices recently crested C$2.60/mcf, and with a reasonable alignment of previously distressed NE BC Stn2 differentials, augmented by a withdrawal expected next week, view the market psyche as constructive and looking ahead, with the analogy that this market is shaping up to mirror 2012 still holding. That said, with crude oil poised to retest support levels, combined with strong stock price performance broadly observed YTD, we would characterize sentiment as slightly pessimistic in the near-term which could reduce or unwind momentum-based investment strategies that have worked thus far in 2016.
RECEIVES TAX REASSESSMENT FROM CRA (ESTIMATED CASH AT STAKE ~$134 MM)
23 Jun 16
Market Impact: Perhaps slightly negative as the CRA has made its proposal official. It is important to note that unlike past CRA disputes with other Canadian oil & gas companies, BTE will not have to provide any security (typically 50% of the claim) as the claim is against commercial trusts, and some of those other disputes have been settled by reducing tax pools instead of paying cash. Nevertheless, until this dispute with the CRA is resolved, it have at least some impact on BTE's internal budgeting.
1Q16 Results, Lower Eagle Ford Costs
05 May 16
1Q16 results in line to slightly better than expectations. Marathon disclosures point to Eagle Ford 1Q16 well costs averaging ~US$0.8 mm less than BTE’s guidance. Some shut-in heavy oil production to be restarted, with possibly more if oil prices hold. Full-time salaries and director retainers reduced 10%. Target price increased $0.50 to $5.50/share, ranking unchanged at Market Perform
Strong trading leads to upgrades
22 Mar 17
On the back of today’s positive trading update and slightly upgraded profit forecasts for FY2017, FY2018 and FY2019 we have reviewed our DCF analysis. This has led to an increased DCF valuation per share of 1500p (from 1200p) which we have made our new target price (from 1200p). Both TFP and JC Paper have contributed to the upgrades shown in the table below as have favourable currency movements. With the potential for further upgrades due to capitalising 3DP costs to come we maintain our Add recommendation.
Small Cap Breakfast
21 Mar 17
First Sentinel—Investment company expecting NEX admission/introduction on 24 March. £636k raised pre-IPO. BioPharma Credit—Expected Gross Initial Acquisition Proceeds now c.$338m. Gross Cash Proceeds capped at $423m with placing and open offer. Results expected 23 March with admission now due 30 march. Tufton Oceanic Assets- The Company intends to invest in a diversified portfolio of second hand commercial sea-going vessels where the Investment Manager believes that an attractive opportunity exists in shipping. $150m raise. Admission 3 April.
South Disouq spuds
20 Mar 17
SDX Energy announced this morning that it has spudded the South Disouq (SD-1X) well in Egypt, targeting gas and oil across a number of intervals. This is a high impact event for SDX Energy, as current company 2P reserves of 4.7mmboe (post acquisition) would be dwarfed by success at South Disouq (we model a 65mmboe field of which SDX holds 55% WI), which could be developed quickly due to existing pipeline infrastructure passing through the block. Our valuation for South Disouq is 6.8p/share, although on success we would expect notable de-risking. Our core NAV is 42p with a full NAV (including South Disouq) of 57p/share. The well is due to take 30-45 days, so we would expect a result in mid late April.