Research, Charts & Company Announcements
Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on CANADIAN NATURAL RESOURCES. We currently have 36 research reports from 1 professional analysts.
|02Mar17 10:05||MKW||Canadian Natural Resources Limited Announces Quarterly Dividend|
|02Mar17 10:00||MKW||Canadian Natural Resources Limited Announces 2016 Fourth Quarter and Year End Results|
|14Feb17 10:00||MKW||Canadian Natural Resources Limited Announces 2016 Year End Reserves|
|02Feb17 10:00||MKW||Canadian Natural Resources Limited Horizon Update|
|03Mar16 10:05||MKW||Canadian Natural Resources Limited Announces Quarterly Dividend|
|03Mar16 10:00||MKW||Canadian Natural Resources Limited Announces 2015 Fourth Quarter and Year End Results and 2016 Budget|
|09Nov15 10:00||MKW||Canadian Natural Resources and PrairieSky Royalty Announce Combination of Royalty Businesses and Concurrent PrairieSky Financing|
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CANADIAN NATURAL RESOURCES
CANADIAN NATURAL RESOURCES
Commodity Price Update – Impact on Integrateds, Large Cap E&P, Oilsands
28 Sep 16
3Q16e WTI prices look set to average ~US$44.50/bbl vs. our $50.00/bbl prior estimate. We have also reduced our 4Q16e WTI forecasts by US$5.00 to US$50.00/ bbl, but left our 2016e+ oil & gas price deck largely unchanged. For the second time in three months we are increasing our forecasts for Canadian refined product premiums relative to New York Harbor.
CNRL 2Q16 Update
05 Aug 16
2Q16 CFPS of $0.85/share missed our $0.88 estimate due to infrastructure downtime. 2016 guidance is essentially unchanged except for a 35 mmcf/d reduction to gas production guidance. Horizon Phase 2B remains on track to reach full rates in November. CNQ has plenty of liquidity ($1.7 billion available credit plus $0.9 billion in securities). CNQ’s free cash flow yield in 2018e+, relative to sustaining capital, is vastly superior to its Canadian peers (see our note from July 7th). Top Pick ranking and $47.00/share target price maintained. Multiple expansion should occur as Horizon production grows.
Integrateds, Oilsands & Large Caps
20 Jul 16
The Fort McMurray wildfire took more than 1.2 mmbbl/d of oilsands production offline at one point, disrupting operations of many companies within our coverage universe. We expect production estimates for many oilsands producers (HSE, IMO, SU, ATH) to be more varied than usual with more variables to account for than usual (downtime, ramp up, sales volumes). SCO prices were boosted by the wildfire, with CNQ best positioned to have taken advantage, given the upgrader at Horizon was only mildly affected by wildfires. CVE, HSE and SU likely benefited from a positive FIFO impact. We estimate a positive FIFO impact of $4-5/bbl of throughput assuming a 30 day lag, with a larger positive FIFO impact on longer lags. We are generally close to consensus for most CFPS estimates, with the exception of Suncor, where we are estimating $0.34/share versus consensus at $0.44/share. There are no target price or ranking changes with this publication.
Sustaining Capital and Implied Free Cash Flow
07 Jul 16
We have analyzed recent Company estimates of sustaining capital. Relative to our approximations of sustaining capital, post Horizon expansion, at current prices CNQ offers a far better free cash flow yield than the Canadian Integrateds, even in a high case refining margin scenario (see charts on page 2). We are upgrading our ranking on CNQ to Top Pick from Outperform, increasing our target price by $3.00 to $47.00/share, while we have reduced our target prices for both HSE and CVE by $1.00/share, to $18.00/share. In our view CNQ is clearly better value than any of the Canadian Integrateds.
Strong trading leads to upgrades
22 Mar 17
On the back of today’s positive trading update and slightly upgraded profit forecasts for FY2017, FY2018 and FY2019 we have reviewed our DCF analysis. This has led to an increased DCF valuation per share of 1500p (from 1200p) which we have made our new target price (from 1200p). Both TFP and JC Paper have contributed to the upgrades shown in the table below as have favourable currency movements. With the potential for further upgrades due to capitalising 3DP costs to come we maintain our Add recommendation.
Small Cap Breakfast
21 Mar 17
First Sentinel—Investment company expecting NEX admission/introduction on 24 March. £636k raised pre-IPO. BioPharma Credit—Expected Gross Initial Acquisition Proceeds now c.$338m. Gross Cash Proceeds capped at $423m with placing and open offer. Results expected 23 March with admission now due 30 march. Tufton Oceanic Assets- The Company intends to invest in a diversified portfolio of second hand commercial sea-going vessels where the Investment Manager believes that an attractive opportunity exists in shipping. $150m raise. Admission 3 April.
South Disouq spuds
20 Mar 17
SDX Energy announced this morning that it has spudded the South Disouq (SD-1X) well in Egypt, targeting gas and oil across a number of intervals. This is a high impact event for SDX Energy, as current company 2P reserves of 4.7mmboe (post acquisition) would be dwarfed by success at South Disouq (we model a 65mmboe field of which SDX holds 55% WI), which could be developed quickly due to existing pipeline infrastructure passing through the block. Our valuation for South Disouq is 6.8p/share, although on success we would expect notable de-risking. Our core NAV is 42p with a full NAV (including South Disouq) of 57p/share. The well is due to take 30-45 days, so we would expect a result in mid late April.