Research, Charts & Company Announcements
Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on CANADIAN OIL SANDS LTD. We currently have 35 research reports from 1 professional analysts.
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CANADIAN OIL SANDS LTD
CANADIAN OIL SANDS LTD
JANUARY SYNCRUDE PRODUCTION 296,100 BBL/D
01 Feb 16
Canadian Oil Sands posted January 2016 Syncrude production results to its website late Monday. Syncrude production averaged 296,100 bbl/d for the month. We had forecast 200,000 bbl/d. Evidently we had been assuming a slower recovery from the Coker 8-2 turnaround that began in December. We suspect January volumes also benefited from flush production that typically occurs at Syncrude in the weeks immediately after a coker turnaround is completed.
4Q15e Preview, Liquidity Analysis, & Bitumen Pricing Update
25 Jan 16
4Q15 results will be ugly, but 1Q16e is obviously shaping up to be much worse. We anticipate further capex budget reductions and have moved capex estimates below current guidance for several companies. Bitumen prices are single digits. If they go negative we suspect some bitumen producing projects could curtail output at least modestly. Liquidity Analysis: futures strip pricing would imply massive debt increases in 2016e-2017e for most names, but most names have sufficient liquidity arranged. We have reduced our ECA target price by US$2.00/share to more appropriately reflect commitments associated with non-core assets.
Suncor Increases Bid for COS
19 Jan 16
We are changing our COS ranking to Tender, with our new COS target price of $10.65/share based on a SU/COS exchange ratio of 0.28x from Suncor’s bid and our Suncor target price of $38.00/share. On a risk adjusted basis, we believe Suncor’s amended offer is fair to COS shareholders.
COS BOARD AND SEYMOUR SCHULICH AGREE TO INCREASED BID BY SUNCOR
18 Jan 16
Market Impact: We expect COS shares to trade close to the improved offer's 0.28 (COS/SU) exchange ratio, compared to January 15 closing share prices which implied a ratio of 0.240x. Suncor and COS announced this morning that both boards have agreed to a higher bid of 0.28 SU shares per COS share (previously 0.25 SU shares), with Mr. Seymour Schulich also committed to tendering his shares (~5%).
DEMANDS DISCLOSURE OF SU BID TENDER RESULTS
11 Jan 16
Canadian Oil Sands issued a press release this morning, stating that it believes Suncor has an obligation to disclose the results of the tender process to date, and claiming that results to date were an "overwhelming rejection" of the bid, even though right now only Suncor has the information on the tender results.
SUNCOR EXTENDS OFFER TO JANUARY 27TH
10 Jan 16
We expect the gap between COS's share price and the 0.25 bid ratio to close slightly on Monday morning (the share price ratio was 0.225x as of the close Friday), as Suncor's extension of the bid likely implies that the majority of shares have tendered, and that Suncor believes that getting the required two-thirds of COS shares tendered is within reach.
08 Dec 16
Elderstreet stake acquired 02 GENERAL NEWS Globalworth premium In this issue Venture capital firm Draper Esprit has taken a 30.8% stake in venture capital trust manager Elderstreet. Both investment managers focus on the technology sector and they will be able to co-invest. Elderstreet has investments in a number of AIM-quoted companies through its VCTs. The purchase was funded by an issue of Draper Esprit shares worth just over £250,000. Simon Cook, the chief executive of Draper Esprit, is a former partner at Elderstreet so he knows the business and the people who run it, although he did leave more than 14 years ago. Cook has previously acquired portfolios from 3i and Cazenove, two other firms where he has worked. Draper Esprit has an option to acquire the remaining shares in Elderstreet, which has more than £25m under management. Adding Elderstreet to the group enables Draper Esprit to offer investors a range of EIS funds, VCTs and an ISA qualifying listed evergreen patient capital fund. The enlarged group has venture capital assets under management of more than £350m. At the end of September 2016, Draper Esprit had a net asset value of 352p a share, which is similar to the current share price. The June 2016 flotation price was 300p a share. Draper Esprit is quoted on Ireland’s Enterprise Securities Market as well as AIM.
01 Nov 16
Since our last outlook note, Quadrise has begun to supply MSAR for extended LONO sea trials, paving the way for commercial adoption from calendar H217 onwards. In August it signed a memorandum of understanding with clients in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA), which is a key enabler for progressing the production-to-combustion pilot there. In October it completed a placing and open offer raising a total of £5.25m (gross). This should enable it to transition comfortably to the commercial phase on successful completion of the LONO and KSA trials.
Dividends reinstated; is it time to turn (more) optimistic?
08 Dec 16
Glencore continues to surprise the markets, earlier with its fast pace of asset disposals and now with the reinstatement of dividends. The following were the key details shared with investors in a meeting held on 1 December 2016: 1/ completed $6.3bn of asset disposals; 2/ reduced net debt (including readily marketable inventories) by $12.5bn over the last 18 months; 3/ reiterated trading’s 2016 EBIT guidance towards the upper end of the $2.5-2.7bn range; 4/ expects healthy annualised 2016 free cash flows – even at Q1 16 commodity price lows; at 2017 forward prices, FCFs are guided to be $6.5bn; 5/ dividends would be reinstated from 2017 – with $1bn to be paid in two equal tranches in H1 and H2; thereafter (i.e. 2018 onwards), $1bn would be a fixed annual dividend payment (banking on the stability of trading’s cash flows) plus a minimum 25% of FCFs from industrial activities. Production guided to grow Source – Investor Presentation December 2016 While copper would be negatively impacted by the end-of-life impact at Alumbera and the Ernest Henry divestment, the output for all other commodities is guided to be higher (in varying degrees).
Raising Target Price to 2,500p per share
01 Nov 16
Royal Dutch reported clean EPS of US$0.35, nearly 50% ahead of consensus. More importantly, cash flow jumped QoQ to US$8.5bn which should go a long way to confirming Shell’s capacity to maintain the current dividend, despite the increase in gearing to 29.2%. Upstream returned to profitability on an underlying basis for the first time since 1Q15. We believe these results confirm our view that Shell’s dividend can and will be maintained at US$0.47 per quarter and we increase our Target Price to 2,500p per share, given further sterling weakness.