Research, Charts & Company Announcements
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CRESCENT POINT ENERGY CORP
CRESCENT POINT ENERGY CORP
Closes $650 mm Financing, Preliminary 2017e Plans Highlight Return to Production Growth
20 Sep 16
Crescent Point successfully executed a ~$650 mm equity financing, with use of proceeds earmarked to accelerate 2016e and 2017e drilling activity levels. The 2016e budget increases to $1.1 billion, with commensurate average volumes moving to 167,000 boe/d. Management’s preliminary 2017e outlook includes a $1.4 billion capital program and an exit rate of between 175,000 to 177,000 boe/d. With the Company undertaking modest dilution in order to protect the Company’s balance sheet amidst the recent crude oil price glut we are reducing our target price to $25.00 per share and moving to an Outperform ranking.
Offers Solid 2Q16 Results
12 Aug 16
Crescent Point’s 2Q16e production and cash flow was modestly ahead of expectations in a relatively quiet quarter of operations that saw capital spending of only ~$90 mm. The Company announced two SE Saskatchewan asset acquisitions and a NW Alberta asset disposition for a net capital outlay of $221 mm. We are maintaining our target price of $29.00 per share and Top Pick ranking as the Company ramps up activity with 18 rigs currently running and a visible pathway to continue outperforming corporate guidance.
ANNOUNCES Q2 2016 RESULTS
11 Aug 16
Impact: Positive. The Company posted solid quarterly results with both production and cash flow coming in ahead of FirstEnergy and consensus estimates, and ideally through less spending than anticipated. A subsequent planned non-core disposition and two tuck-in acquisitions in 2Q16, carrying a net cost of $212 mm remains well inside of quarterly free cash flow of $278 mm, further highlighting the Company's dedication to grow within organic means. The Company looks primed to meet or exceed current 2016e production guidance with 18 rigs currently deployed.
2Q16e Quarterly Preview
26 Jul 16
Some Recovery on Segmented Cash Flow Generation Over Q1 Though Still Down 56% Y/Y. In aggregate, the Intermediate, Mid, and Small Cap groups are expected to generate 2Q16e cash flow of $1,281 mm, $183 mm, and $53 mm, or $1.517 billion in total, that while depressed relative to the same period last year (~$2.647 billion combined), is up 17% sequentially from the prior quarter, largely on the strength of crude oil price recovery in the period. Severely weak natural gas pricing picture markedly reversed into summer, market likely to ignore financials for natural gas producers and look ahead to winter and formalization of sell-side 2018e estimates in coming months. Spot AECO natural gas prices recently crested C$2.60/mcf, and with a reasonable alignment of previously distressed NE BC Stn2 differentials, augmented by a withdrawal expected next week, view the market psyche as constructive and looking ahead, with the analogy that this market is shaping up to mirror 2012 still holding. That said, with crude oil poised to retest support levels, combined with strong stock price performance broadly observed YTD, we would characterize sentiment as slightly pessimistic in the near-term which could reduce or unwind momentum-based investment strategies that have worked thus far in 2016.
Intermediates, Mid Caps & Small Cap Commodity Price Update
23 Jun 16
With this publication we highlight forecast revisions associated with our commodity price update (Natural Gas Update; Crude Oil Update), reaffirming a view of commodity price recovery in 2017e. In the interim until then, 2016e Canadian oil price realizations are up ~11% in the synthetic and Edmonton Light streams, with heavy WCS crude up ~20% which is amplified by Canadian oilsands output curtailments. While 2016e Canadian natural gas prices are projected to be ~20% lower, we expect much of this effect to be mitigated by strong hedging positions this year, and remain focused on price recovery next year with very strong increases reflected in both the strip and our revised forecast. Overall, broad valuations are flat to slightly higher coming out of this exercise, with oil/ liquids levered entities observing the highest 2017e CFO uptick. We remain constructive on the space, though the market will need to look past a trough of potentially weak pricing this summer.
ANNOUNCES Q1 2016 RESULTS AND RECORD PRODUCTION
12 May 16
The Company posted strong first quarter results with both production and cash flow coming in ahead of FirstEnergy and consensus estimates, and ideally through less spending than anticipated. With spring break-up field conditions being better than expected so far this year and ~66% of its 2016e capital budget still remaining we believe this is setting up for future upward revisions to its guidance, particularly with continued strength in the crude oil quote.
30 Nov 16
Abzena (ABZA): Interim results indicate happy customers (BUY) | Horizonte Minerals* (HZM): Fund raise completed (CORP) | SacOil* (SAC): Half-year trading statement (CORP) | Revolution Bars (RBG): New openings (BUY) | Amino Technologies* (AMO): Multi operator FUSION roll out (CORP)
Small Cap Breakfast
29 Nov 16
Asia Pacific Investment Partner - the research-driven emerging and frontier markets real estate development business intends to float on AIM and conduct a placing in December RM Secured Direct Lending - The secured direct lending fund intends to float on the Main Market on 15 December raising up to £100m Diversified Oil & Gas— Schedule One now out. $60m to be raised. Expected admission 6 December. Creo Medical Group —UK based medical device company focused on surgical endoscopy, a recent development in minimally invasive surgery. Admission due 7 December. Fundraising details TBA.
GTL transaction not going ahead
01 Dec 16
Intelligent Energy (IEH) has announced that the deal to acquire the Energy Management Business of GTL will not now be consummated. The move leaves management free to concentrate on driving sales of commercially ready B2B products, which is a key element of its strategy. We adjust our FY17e revenue estimate while leaving our pre-exceptional losses and cash-flow forecasts unchanged.
01 Nov 16
Since our last outlook note, Quadrise has begun to supply MSAR for extended LONO sea trials, paving the way for commercial adoption from calendar H217 onwards. In August it signed a memorandum of understanding with clients in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA), which is a key enabler for progressing the production-to-combustion pilot there. In October it completed a placing and open offer raising a total of £5.25m (gross). This should enable it to transition comfortably to the commercial phase on successful completion of the LONO and KSA trials.
24 Nov 16
Quixant* (QXT): Gaming gains (CORP) | SCISYS* (SSY): Bringing good news from Germany (CORP) | Hayward Tyler Group*: Contract wins (CORP) | Sound Energy (SOU): TE-7 flow rate and fund raise (BUY) | Water Intelligence* (WATR): Growth and improving returns in a defensive market (CORP) | Imaginatik* (IMTK): Interim trading update (CORP)