Research, Charts & Company Announcements
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GIBSON ENERGY INC
GIBSON ENERGY INC
Announces 0.8 mmbbl of New Storage at Edmonton
07 Sep 16
Gibson has announced two new 400,000 bbl tanks at the Company’s Edmonton Terminal which are expected to be in service in 2Q18. This will take Gibsons’ total available storage capacity to 1.7 million barrels at Edmonton. Gibsons has also suggested its Logistics segment should see a modest improvement in 3Q16e. However, its Wholesale segment has been adversely impacted by adverse weather conditions, which means there will not be a material q/q improvement in 3Q16e. We have notched down 2016e EBITDA by 6% to $247 mm, 2017e EBITDA is unchanged at $381 mm and 2018e EBITDA has been increased by 4% to $412 mm.
IS GIBSON ENERGY (GEI) IN PLAY?
11 Aug 16
A news report in the Financial Post claimed that Gibson Energy was approached by Asia Pacific Private Equity of Singapore with an offer of $19.94/share. Neither Gibson nor Asia Pacific Private Equity confirmed the letter, but the specific identity of the bidder and share price quoted in the article lead us to believe that it is correct.
Reports 2Q16 Results; Adj. EBITDA $44 mm (FCC $46/Consensus $53 mm)
04 Aug 16
Although Gibson posted 2Q results below “Street” estimates, we think the worst may be behind the Company. The decline in earnings was primarily due to lower product revenue as a result of prolonged lower commodity prices and production outages (such as the Fort McMurray fires) limiting Gibsons’ customer’s activity. Gibsons reinforced its growth capital spending guidance of $225 mm in FY2016 and between $200 mm and $300 mm in FY2017. We have lowered the 12-MTP by $1.00 to $18.75/share, but maintain our Outperform ranking.
REPORTS 2Q16 RESULTS; ADJ. EBITDA $44 MM (FCC $46/CONSENSUS $53 MM)
02 Aug 16
Impact: Below "Street" estimates, but we think the worst may be behind Gibson. On August 2, 2016, Gibsons released its first quarter financial results with adjusted EBITDA of $44 mm, slightly below our estimate of $46 mm and below consensus of $53 mm. The decline in earnings is primarily due to lower product revenue as a result of prolonged lower commodity prices and production outages limiting Gibsons' customer's activity. Gibsons also reinforced its growth Capital spending guidance of $225 mm in FY2016 and between $200 mm-$300 mm in FY2017.
Exploring Potential Sale of Industrial Propane Business
21 Jul 16
On July 20, 2016, Gibson Energy announced that it was exploring a potential sale of its industrial propane business. In 2014 and 2015, respectively, the Industrial Propane business generated EBITDA of $43 and $41 mm. We expect a run rate of $40-$47 mm in EBITDA from 2016- 2018. Looking at comparables Amerigas, Ferrelgas and Parkland (PKI-T), we believe a ~10x EV/EBITDA valuation would be appropriate, leading us to value this business at $400-$500 mm, which would provide Gibson with sufficient cash to complete its ~$440 mm 2016-2017 growth program without adding additional debt.
Provides FirstEnergy with a Corporate Update
23 Jun 16
Gibson’s CFO Sean Brown and Manager, Investor Relations Cam Deller provided FirstEnergy with a corporate update, highlighting corporate restructuring, capital focus/direction, and current market trends. The new reporting structure is intended to better reflect the internal business structure and improve transparency for investors.Gibson is focusing a majority (>90%) of its growth capital on its Infrastructure business segment in 2016 and 2017, primarily with tank storage in Edmonton and Hardisty, effectively increasing the company’s cash flows sourced from take-or-pay contracts. Our DDM valuation remains at $19.75/share and we retain our Outperform ranking.
08 Dec 16
Elderstreet stake acquired 02 GENERAL NEWS Globalworth premium In this issue Venture capital firm Draper Esprit has taken a 30.8% stake in venture capital trust manager Elderstreet. Both investment managers focus on the technology sector and they will be able to co-invest. Elderstreet has investments in a number of AIM-quoted companies through its VCTs. The purchase was funded by an issue of Draper Esprit shares worth just over £250,000. Simon Cook, the chief executive of Draper Esprit, is a former partner at Elderstreet so he knows the business and the people who run it, although he did leave more than 14 years ago. Cook has previously acquired portfolios from 3i and Cazenove, two other firms where he has worked. Draper Esprit has an option to acquire the remaining shares in Elderstreet, which has more than £25m under management. Adding Elderstreet to the group enables Draper Esprit to offer investors a range of EIS funds, VCTs and an ISA qualifying listed evergreen patient capital fund. The enlarged group has venture capital assets under management of more than £350m. At the end of September 2016, Draper Esprit had a net asset value of 352p a share, which is similar to the current share price. The June 2016 flotation price was 300p a share. Draper Esprit is quoted on Ireland’s Enterprise Securities Market as well as AIM.
01 Nov 16
Since our last outlook note, Quadrise has begun to supply MSAR for extended LONO sea trials, paving the way for commercial adoption from calendar H217 onwards. In August it signed a memorandum of understanding with clients in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA), which is a key enabler for progressing the production-to-combustion pilot there. In October it completed a placing and open offer raising a total of £5.25m (gross). This should enable it to transition comfortably to the commercial phase on successful completion of the LONO and KSA trials.
Raising Target Price to 2,500p per share
01 Nov 16
Royal Dutch reported clean EPS of US$0.35, nearly 50% ahead of consensus. More importantly, cash flow jumped QoQ to US$8.5bn which should go a long way to confirming Shell’s capacity to maintain the current dividend, despite the increase in gearing to 29.2%. Upstream returned to profitability on an underlying basis for the first time since 1Q15. We believe these results confirm our view that Shell’s dividend can and will be maintained at US$0.47 per quarter and we increase our Target Price to 2,500p per share, given further sterling weakness.
Conviction List Q4 2016
05 Oct 16
Since its inception in 2010, the Conviction List has outperformed the market in 13 of 18 periods and a reinvested Conviction List would have returned 255% against a Small Companies index that would have returned 130%. Our Conviction List returned 3.7% over the last quarter; this was set against the benchmark UK Small Companies index that returned 11.3% over the same period. Our Q4 portfolio reflects our outlook for a temporary sweet spot for UK growth during the second half of 2016. The downside risk from the uncertainty of the EU Referendum result has been countered by stimulus from the Bank of England, signs of a looser fiscal stance and an 18% YoY reduction in the Sterling Exchange Rate. Compressed corporate fixed income spreads continue to provide a valuation underpin for global equities.
GTL transaction not going ahead
01 Dec 16
Intelligent Energy (IEH) has announced that the deal to acquire the Energy Management Business of GTL will not now be consummated. The move leaves management free to concentrate on driving sales of commercially ready B2B products, which is a key element of its strategy. We adjust our FY17e revenue estimate while leaving our pre-exceptional losses and cash-flow forecasts unchanged.