Research, Charts & Company Announcements
Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on KELT EXPLORATION LTD. We currently have 28 research reports from 1 professional analysts.
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KELT EXPLORATION LTD
KELT EXPLORATION LTD
Reports Second Quarter Results, Further Expansion of Inga/ Fireweed Montney Footprint
11 Aug 16
Kelt released second quarter financial and operating results that exceeded our cash generation expectations. The Company will reallocate capital back to Alberta now that Alberta MRF royalty considerations accommodate renewed activity immediately, though resultant deliverability will not largely materialize until 2017e. A lower cost development premise should materialize in 2017e with a drilling program oriented towards penetrations on existing pads at that time. Our 12-month target price is elevated to $6.75/sh on receipt of this report and subsequent adjustments to our forward estimates to preserve our prior 12-month 2017e EV/DACF target multiple. We continue to rank the stock as an Outperform.
2Q16e Quarterly Preview
26 Jul 16
Some Recovery on Segmented Cash Flow Generation Over Q1 Though Still Down 56% Y/Y. In aggregate, the Intermediate, Mid, and Small Cap groups are expected to generate 2Q16e cash flow of $1,281 mm, $183 mm, and $53 mm, or $1.517 billion in total, that while depressed relative to the same period last year (~$2.647 billion combined), is up 17% sequentially from the prior quarter, largely on the strength of crude oil price recovery in the period. Severely weak natural gas pricing picture markedly reversed into summer, market likely to ignore financials for natural gas producers and look ahead to winter and formalization of sell-side 2018e estimates in coming months. Spot AECO natural gas prices recently crested C$2.60/mcf, and with a reasonable alignment of previously distressed NE BC Stn2 differentials, augmented by a withdrawal expected next week, view the market psyche as constructive and looking ahead, with the analogy that this market is shaping up to mirror 2012 still holding. That said, with crude oil poised to retest support levels, combined with strong stock price performance broadly observed YTD, we would characterize sentiment as slightly pessimistic in the near-term which could reduce or unwind momentum-based investment strategies that have worked thus far in 2016.
ANNOUNCES REVISED BORROWING BASE OF $185 MM
02 Jun 16
Impact: Neutral. The Company's reduced credit facility is within our expectations based on current commodity prices. Kelt is currently drawn 63% on the revised amount and we estimate the Company exiting 2016 with bank debt plus working capital deficiency of $143 mm reflecting ~77% of the facility.
01 Nov 16
Since our last outlook note, Quadrise has begun to supply MSAR for extended LONO sea trials, paving the way for commercial adoption from calendar H217 onwards. In August it signed a memorandum of understanding with clients in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA), which is a key enabler for progressing the production-to-combustion pilot there. In October it completed a placing and open offer raising a total of £5.25m (gross). This should enable it to transition comfortably to the commercial phase on successful completion of the LONO and KSA trials.
30 Nov 16
Abzena (ABZA): Interim results indicate happy customers (BUY) | Horizonte Minerals* (HZM): Fund raise completed (CORP) | SacOil* (SAC): Half-year trading statement (CORP) | Revolution Bars (RBG): New openings (BUY) | Amino Technologies* (AMO): Multi operator FUSION roll out (CORP)
GTL transaction not going ahead
01 Dec 16
Intelligent Energy (IEH) has announced that the deal to acquire the Energy Management Business of GTL will not now be consummated. The move leaves management free to concentrate on driving sales of commercially ready B2B products, which is a key element of its strategy. We adjust our FY17e revenue estimate while leaving our pre-exceptional losses and cash-flow forecasts unchanged.
24 Nov 16
Quixant* (QXT): Gaming gains (CORP) | SCISYS* (SSY): Bringing good news from Germany (CORP) | Hayward Tyler Group*: Contract wins (CORP) | Sound Energy (SOU): TE-7 flow rate and fund raise (BUY) | Water Intelligence* (WATR): Growth and improving returns in a defensive market (CORP) | Imaginatik* (IMTK): Interim trading update (CORP)
Operating profits and net cash position – restored; market outlook – precarious
01 Dec 16
The turnaround was noticeable Lonmin’s full-year (September-ending) results were ahead of consensus and AV’s estimates. Sales came in at $1.1bn (-14% yoy) as the average realised (USD-denominated) PGM prices and sales volumes were down yoy 12% and 2%, respectively. However, platinum sales (736koz) were much ahead of earlier guidance (700koz) – thanks to certain smelting/processing efficiencies, which helped more than offset the impact of reorganisation-related disruptions. After two consecutive years (FY14-15) of hefty operating losses, Lonmin finally reported an adjusted operating profit (even though feeble) of $7m. This was facilitated by the record weakness in the South African rand (down from ZAR12/$ in FY15 to ZAR14.77/$ in FY16) and ZAR1.3bn of cost savings – 86% higher than the earlier target. Disappointingly, Lonmin recognised $335m of asset impairments (vs. $1.8bn in FY2015), which resulted in a full-year net loss of $400m. But the turnaround in reported OCFs – inflow of $58m vs. an outflow of $12m – was a much-needed improvement, which, along with conservative capex (-35% yoy) of $87m, resulted in a net cash position of $173m (with no short-term repayments) vs. a net debt position of $185m (at end-FY15). But the guidance spells caution For FY17, management targets conservative platinum sales of 650-680koz, while unit costs are expected to remain under pressure – ZAR10,800-11,300/oz vs. ZAR10,748/oz achieved in FY16. On the other hand, capex plans would be aggressive – ZAR1.8bn (which includes ZAR400m for the tailings project – already delayed by almost two years) vs. ZAR1.3bn spent in FY16.
Raising Target Price to 2,500p per share
01 Nov 16
Royal Dutch reported clean EPS of US$0.35, nearly 50% ahead of consensus. More importantly, cash flow jumped QoQ to US$8.5bn which should go a long way to confirming Shell’s capacity to maintain the current dividend, despite the increase in gearing to 29.2%. Upstream returned to profitability on an underlying basis for the first time since 1Q15. We believe these results confirm our view that Shell’s dividend can and will be maintained at US$0.47 per quarter and we increase our Target Price to 2,500p per share, given further sterling weakness.