Research, Charts & Company Announcements
Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on MEG ENERGY CORP. We currently have 36 research reports from 1 professional analysts.
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MEG ENERGY CORP
MEG ENERGY CORP
Commodity Price Update – Impact on Integrateds, Large Cap E&P, Oilsands
28 Sep 16
3Q16e WTI prices look set to average ~US$44.50/bbl vs. our $50.00/bbl prior estimate. We have also reduced our 4Q16e WTI forecasts by US$5.00 to US$50.00/ bbl, but left our 2016e+ oil & gas price deck largely unchanged. For the second time in three months we are increasing our forecasts for Canadian refined product premiums relative to New York Harbor.
2Q16 Update – Low Cost Growth Plans Outlined
03 Aug 16
MEG outlined two potential phases of brownfield growth that could add ~30 mbbl/d for <$750 mm. Beyond the 3.3 mbbl/d of proposed additions to be funded by $30 mm later this year (2016 capex budget of $170 mm unchanged), we suspect these will only proceed if MEG can fund without growing net debt. An outright sale of its 50% stake in Access still seems unlikely to us, but perhaps. MEG considers selling a partial stake. Almost half of 2H16e production now has WTI downside protected at ~US$45/bbl. No change to $7.00/share target price. Upgrading to Outperform.
Integrateds, Oilsands & Large Caps
20 Jul 16
The Fort McMurray wildfire took more than 1.2 mmbbl/d of oilsands production offline at one point, disrupting operations of many companies within our coverage universe. We expect production estimates for many oilsands producers (HSE, IMO, SU, ATH) to be more varied than usual with more variables to account for than usual (downtime, ramp up, sales volumes). SCO prices were boosted by the wildfire, with CNQ best positioned to have taken advantage, given the upgrader at Horizon was only mildly affected by wildfires. CVE, HSE and SU likely benefited from a positive FIFO impact. We estimate a positive FIFO impact of $4-5/bbl of throughput assuming a 30 day lag, with a larger positive FIFO impact on longer lags. We are generally close to consensus for most CFPS estimates, with the exception of Suncor, where we are estimating $0.34/share versus consensus at $0.44/share. There are no target price or ranking changes with this publication.
Sustaining Capital and Implied Free Cash Flow
07 Jul 16
We have analyzed recent Company estimates of sustaining capital. Relative to our approximations of sustaining capital, post Horizon expansion, at current prices CNQ offers a far better free cash flow yield than the Canadian Integrateds, even in a high case refining margin scenario (see charts on page 2). We are upgrading our ranking on CNQ to Top Pick from Outperform, increasing our target price by $3.00 to $47.00/share, while we have reduced our target prices for both HSE and CVE by $1.00/share, to $18.00/share. In our view CNQ is clearly better value than any of the Canadian Integrateds.
The Slide Rule
12 Jan 17
What is The Slide Rule? The Slide Rule has been designed to dramatically simplify the identification of the best companies in the UK small/mid-cap sector by making a quantitative assessment of the relative potential of each company. At its core, The Slide Rule aims to identify those companies that create genuine shareholder value through strong returns on capital and solid growth, but also present a value opportunity with the potential tailwind of earnings momentum. Companies are assessed within a Quality, Value, Growth and Momentum (QVGM) framework.
The Monthly January 2017
09 Jan 17
Despite all the hullaballoo of the Brexit vote and the subsequent election of Donald Trump as the next US President, the UK stock market prospered last year, especially in the latter few months of 2016. The combination of a depreciating currency – making $ earnings more valuable in relative terms - and the Trump emphasis on infrastructure expenditure drove the stock market higher
Small Cap Breakfast
17 Jan 17
Global Energy Development (GED.L) — To be renamed Nautilus Marine Services. Schedule 1 from developer and seller of hydrocarbons and related products. Reverse takeover. Raising $10.5m via a convertible. Expected 9 Feb. Eco (Atlantic) Oil & Gas—TSX-V listed oil and gas exploration has announced its intention to float on AIM. Assets in Guyana and Namibia. Proposed £2m-£3m fundraise. Diversified Gas & Oil—According to LSE website first day of trading on AIM now expected for 30 January.
Minor delay but lower cost and better visibility enhance the investment profile
13 Jan 17
First oil at Stella is delayed by about a month, reducing the contribution of Stella to FY17 production by the same period. While this has an impact on FY17e free cash flow, this is negligible to our valuation. More importantly, FY17 opex are estimated at only US$18/boe, below our estimates of US$20/boe. There are opportunities to reduce opex further. Harrier is expected to reach first oil in 2018, one year earlier than we expected and at a cost of US$40 mm lower than we anticipated. The overall development cost is less than US$6.0/boe. Ithaca holds numerous discoveries around Stella that would be developed with a similar cost structure to Harrier.