Research, Charts & Company Announcements
Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on PAINTED PONY PETROLEUM. We currently have 33 research reports from 1 professional analysts.
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PAINTED PONY PETROLEUM
PAINTED PONY PETROLEUM
PAINTED PONY REACHES 30,000 BOE/D, TOWNSEND RAMP UP ON SCHEDULE
19 Sep 16
Impact: Slightly positive. While there will be no changes to our formal estimates as a result of this update, the underlying risk of the Company growing from 16,600 boe/d in 2Q16 to 40,000 boe/d by the end of the year is significantly reduced with confirmation of corporate volumes at 30,000 boe/d over the past 5 days.
2Q16 Results In Line, Incremental Capital Formally Added to 2H16e
12 Aug 16
Painted Pony reported 2Q16 production and cash flow that overlaid our estimates. As expected, the Company has formally increased its 2016 capital spending guidance to $199 mm from $179 mm previously, as a result of early commissioning of the AltaGas Townsend facility, which will naturally necessitate more wells to achieve the unchanged 40,000 boe/d 2016e exit marker. Current volumes through the Townsend facility are tracking the new ramp-up schedule while total corporate volume guidance of 23,000 boe/d in 3Q16e appears to be running hotter than our prior forecast. Based on reduced well costs reverberating through our RENAV methodology, we have increased our target price to $13.00/share.
Executes NE BC Montney Asset Exchange
28 Jul 16
Painted Pony announced that it has entered into an asset exchange agreement with a large industry partner consistent with Progress-Petronas. The exchange encompasses a mutual 15.4 net sections (9,856 net acres), primarily at Daiber, wells and a working interest in a facility owned and operated by Progress-Petronas. The deal will net Painted Pony an additional 5.4 mmcfe/d which will have to be tied-in to the Company’s infrastructure and will, most importantly, bestow 100% WI in the land and wells acquired in the swap. We have made no changes to our estimates in light of the deal and as such continue to offer an Outperform ranking and 12-month target price of $12.50 per share, recently revised in our Facts dated July 20, 2016, concurrent with the Company’s announcement of an early start-up of the 198 mmcf/d Townsend facility
2Q16e Quarterly Preview
26 Jul 16
Some Recovery on Segmented Cash Flow Generation Over Q1 Though Still Down 56% Y/Y. In aggregate, the Intermediate, Mid, and Small Cap groups are expected to generate 2Q16e cash flow of $1,281 mm, $183 mm, and $53 mm, or $1.517 billion in total, that while depressed relative to the same period last year (~$2.647 billion combined), is up 17% sequentially from the prior quarter, largely on the strength of crude oil price recovery in the period. Severely weak natural gas pricing picture markedly reversed into summer, market likely to ignore financials for natural gas producers and look ahead to winter and formalization of sell-side 2018e estimates in coming months. Spot AECO natural gas prices recently crested C$2.60/mcf, and with a reasonable alignment of previously distressed NE BC Stn2 differentials, augmented by a withdrawal expected next week, view the market psyche as constructive and looking ahead, with the analogy that this market is shaping up to mirror 2012 still holding. That said, with crude oil poised to retest support levels, combined with strong stock price performance broadly observed YTD, we would characterize sentiment as slightly pessimistic in the near-term which could reduce or unwind momentum-based investment strategies that have worked thus far in 2016.
Announces First Sales from Townsend Facility
20 Jul 16
Painted Pony announced first gas sales out of the Townsend facility with targeted ramp up to 50 mmcf/d in August, 100 mmcf/d in September, and 150 mmcf/d in October. Increased volumes forecasts paired with lower anticipated capital lease fees drives a 12% and 6% increase to our cash flow estimates in 2016e and 2017e respectively. Outperform recommendation is reconfirmed on an increased target price of $12.50 per share (previously $10.50 per share).
Strong trading leads to upgrades
22 Mar 17
On the back of today’s positive trading update and slightly upgraded profit forecasts for FY2017, FY2018 and FY2019 we have reviewed our DCF analysis. This has led to an increased DCF valuation per share of 1500p (from 1200p) which we have made our new target price (from 1200p). Both TFP and JC Paper have contributed to the upgrades shown in the table below as have favourable currency movements. With the potential for further upgrades due to capitalising 3DP costs to come we maintain our Add recommendation.
Small Cap Breakfast
21 Mar 17
First Sentinel—Investment company expecting NEX admission/introduction on 24 March. £636k raised pre-IPO. BioPharma Credit—Expected Gross Initial Acquisition Proceeds now c.$338m. Gross Cash Proceeds capped at $423m with placing and open offer. Results expected 23 March with admission now due 30 march. Tufton Oceanic Assets- The Company intends to invest in a diversified portfolio of second hand commercial sea-going vessels where the Investment Manager believes that an attractive opportunity exists in shipping. $150m raise. Admission 3 April.
Bang to rights
21 Mar 17
Tullow unexpectedly announced a US$750m rights issue on Friday at a 45.2% discount to the previous close. While this step confirms our investment thesis, the scale of the discount and the timing look like a slap in the face for investors and/or indicative of a weaker financial position than we are modelling. We publish revised estimates to reflect the impact of the issue and cut our Target Price to 215p per share (from 245p). We maintain our Hold recommendation.
Panmure Morning Note 22-03-2017
22 Mar 17
Acacia Mining and Endeavour Mining confirmed merger talks have now ended with Endeavour claiming an inability to “create adequate value for Endeavour shareholders”, most likely, we believe, given the disappointing ruling from the Tanzanian government on copper-gold concentrate sales. We were positive on the merger and believed a credible London listed Pan-African producer capable of challenging Randgold, would have been established. We make no change to our Hold recommendation today, and expect the shares to be marked lower in early trade.