Research, Charts & Company Announcements
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PERPETUAL ENERGY INC
PERPETUAL ENERGY INC
ANNOUNCES STRATEGIC DISPOSITION OF EASTERN ALBERTA SHALLOW GAS PROPERTIES
27 Sep 16
Impact: Positive. The transaction rids the Company of negative cash flow production within the context of an undercapitalized asset currently along with a reduction to the corporate asset retirement obligations. 2017e cash flow should increase by ~$10 mm, all else equal.
Second Quarter Results, Lower Cash Flow Outlook
11 Aug 16
Perpetual’s second quarter results came in largely as expected with negative cash flow in the period and limited capital spending. Management continued to focus on debt reduction in the period, swapping out a material portion of its senior notes for some of its TOU shares, while also selling its 30% interest in the Warwick Gas Storage LP. With 2H16e cash flows expected to remain in the red and below our prior thinking, our revised forecast reflects a 23% reduction to our 2017e cash flow outlook. We maintain our Market Perform ranking and have lowered our target price to $2.25 per share.
2Q16e Quarterly Preview
26 Jul 16
Some Recovery on Segmented Cash Flow Generation Over Q1 Though Still Down 56% Y/Y. In aggregate, the Intermediate, Mid, and Small Cap groups are expected to generate 2Q16e cash flow of $1,281 mm, $183 mm, and $53 mm, or $1.517 billion in total, that while depressed relative to the same period last year (~$2.647 billion combined), is up 17% sequentially from the prior quarter, largely on the strength of crude oil price recovery in the period. Severely weak natural gas pricing picture markedly reversed into summer, market likely to ignore financials for natural gas producers and look ahead to winter and formalization of sell-side 2018e estimates in coming months. Spot AECO natural gas prices recently crested C$2.60/mcf, and with a reasonable alignment of previously distressed NE BC Stn2 differentials, augmented by a withdrawal expected next week, view the market psyche as constructive and looking ahead, with the analogy that this market is shaping up to mirror 2012 still holding. That said, with crude oil poised to retest support levels, combined with strong stock price performance broadly observed YTD, we would characterize sentiment as slightly pessimistic in the near-term which could reduce or unwind momentum-based investment strategies that have worked thus far in 2016.
30 Nov 16
Abzena (ABZA): Interim results indicate happy customers (BUY) | Horizonte Minerals* (HZM): Fund raise completed (CORP) | SacOil* (SAC): Half-year trading statement (CORP) | Revolution Bars (RBG): New openings (BUY) | Amino Technologies* (AMO): Multi operator FUSION roll out (CORP)
Small Cap Breakfast
29 Nov 16
Asia Pacific Investment Partner - the research-driven emerging and frontier markets real estate development business intends to float on AIM and conduct a placing in December RM Secured Direct Lending - The secured direct lending fund intends to float on the Main Market on 15 December raising up to £100m Diversified Oil & Gas— Schedule One now out. $60m to be raised. Expected admission 6 December. Creo Medical Group —UK based medical device company focused on surgical endoscopy, a recent development in minimally invasive surgery. Admission due 7 December. Fundraising details TBA.
24 Nov 16
Quixant* (QXT): Gaming gains (CORP) | SCISYS* (SSY): Bringing good news from Germany (CORP) | Hayward Tyler Group*: Contract wins (CORP) | Sound Energy (SOU): TE-7 flow rate and fund raise (BUY) | Water Intelligence* (WATR): Growth and improving returns in a defensive market (CORP) | Imaginatik* (IMTK): Interim trading update (CORP)
High grade, low cost gold
28 Nov 16
High grades and low costs mean that, in our view, Scotgold’s Cononish project could generate more than £14m a year in EBITDA. In addition to advancing funding discussions based on the compelling bankable feasibility study mine plan (which at £950/oz gold price and 8% WACC gives a project NPV of £43.0m), the company is exploring optimisation opportunities, as well as the potential for a phased approach requiring lower up front capital. We are resuming coverage with a Buy recommendation and target price of 2.2p