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RAGING RIVER EXPLORATION INC
RAGING RIVER EXPLORATION INC
Reports Solid Second Quarter Results
12 Aug 16
Raging River reported second quarter financial and operating results that were in line with our estimates, highlighted by positive earnings generation in the period, illustrative of a highly economic top line revenue and enviable cost structure, coupled with affirmation of a disciplined acquisition strategy since inception. There are essentially zero changes to our forward outlook. We reiterate a $13.50/sh 12-month target price and Outperform ranking.
2Q16e Quarterly Preview
26 Jul 16
Some Recovery on Segmented Cash Flow Generation Over Q1 Though Still Down 56% Y/Y. In aggregate, the Intermediate, Mid, and Small Cap groups are expected to generate 2Q16e cash flow of $1,281 mm, $183 mm, and $53 mm, or $1.517 billion in total, that while depressed relative to the same period last year (~$2.647 billion combined), is up 17% sequentially from the prior quarter, largely on the strength of crude oil price recovery in the period. Severely weak natural gas pricing picture markedly reversed into summer, market likely to ignore financials for natural gas producers and look ahead to winter and formalization of sell-side 2018e estimates in coming months. Spot AECO natural gas prices recently crested C$2.60/mcf, and with a reasonable alignment of previously distressed NE BC Stn2 differentials, augmented by a withdrawal expected next week, view the market psyche as constructive and looking ahead, with the analogy that this market is shaping up to mirror 2012 still holding. That said, with crude oil poised to retest support levels, combined with strong stock price performance broadly observed YTD, we would characterize sentiment as slightly pessimistic in the near-term which could reduce or unwind momentum-based investment strategies that have worked thus far in 2016.
Announces Operations Update, Forgan Land Consolidation and Increased 2016 Guidance, Approval for Rock Energy Acquisition
22 Jul 16
An increased 2016 budget prompts slight boost to production estimates, despite a modestly trailing 2Q16 production figure. Consolidation of land at Forgan is positive and consistent with Corporate aggregation strategy, further expanding the Viking footprint.
ANNOUNCES OPERATIONS UPDATE, FORGAN LAND CONSOLIDATION AND INCREASED 2016 GUIDANCE, APPROVAL FOR ROCK ENERGY (RE) ACQUISITION
21 Jul 16
Impact: Neutral. 2Q16 production slightly trailed both FirstEnergy and consensus estimates, however, a modestly increased 2016 budget should bring annual production volumes above our prior expectations.
Raging River Announces Corporate Acquisition of Rock Energy
02 Jun 16
Raging River has entered into an agreement to acquire Rock Energy in an all share deal valued at $109 mm (inclusive of $67 mm in debt). Through this transaction, the Company adds 2,550 boe/d (95% oil), of which 1,950 bbl/d is outside Raging River’s core Viking asset base and producing from Rock’s heavy oil assets primarily at Mantario. Our proforma forecast portrays the transaction as 8% accretive to 2017e CFPS all while maintaining the Company’s balance sheet flexibility and strong production growth profile. We have increased our target price to $13.25 per share and are maintaining our Outperform recommendation.
ANNOUNCES CORPORATE ACQUISITION OF ROCK ENERGY INC. (RE)
01 Jun 16
Impact: Positive. The corporate acquisition of Rock Energy adds another layer of high quality, light oil Viking inventory at Kerrobert complementary to Raging River's existing position. While the market may be initially uncertain of the heavy oil barrels acquired from the Mantario pool, we view this as an opportunistic transaction at a low in the commodity cycle that may ultimately reside only temporary at Raging River. Further, tax pools of $208 mm will aid in reducing the Company's payable cash taxes in the near term, with our initial estimates pegging the value of these pools at ~$20 mm, a testament to the profitability of the business despite deteriorating crude prices.
08 Dec 16
Elderstreet stake acquired 02 GENERAL NEWS Globalworth premium In this issue Venture capital firm Draper Esprit has taken a 30.8% stake in venture capital trust manager Elderstreet. Both investment managers focus on the technology sector and they will be able to co-invest. Elderstreet has investments in a number of AIM-quoted companies through its VCTs. The purchase was funded by an issue of Draper Esprit shares worth just over £250,000. Simon Cook, the chief executive of Draper Esprit, is a former partner at Elderstreet so he knows the business and the people who run it, although he did leave more than 14 years ago. Cook has previously acquired portfolios from 3i and Cazenove, two other firms where he has worked. Draper Esprit has an option to acquire the remaining shares in Elderstreet, which has more than £25m under management. Adding Elderstreet to the group enables Draper Esprit to offer investors a range of EIS funds, VCTs and an ISA qualifying listed evergreen patient capital fund. The enlarged group has venture capital assets under management of more than £350m. At the end of September 2016, Draper Esprit had a net asset value of 352p a share, which is similar to the current share price. The June 2016 flotation price was 300p a share. Draper Esprit is quoted on Ireland’s Enterprise Securities Market as well as AIM.
01 Nov 16
Since our last outlook note, Quadrise has begun to supply MSAR for extended LONO sea trials, paving the way for commercial adoption from calendar H217 onwards. In August it signed a memorandum of understanding with clients in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA), which is a key enabler for progressing the production-to-combustion pilot there. In October it completed a placing and open offer raising a total of £5.25m (gross). This should enable it to transition comfortably to the commercial phase on successful completion of the LONO and KSA trials.
Raising Target Price to 2,500p per share
01 Nov 16
Royal Dutch reported clean EPS of US$0.35, nearly 50% ahead of consensus. More importantly, cash flow jumped QoQ to US$8.5bn which should go a long way to confirming Shell’s capacity to maintain the current dividend, despite the increase in gearing to 29.2%. Upstream returned to profitability on an underlying basis for the first time since 1Q15. We believe these results confirm our view that Shell’s dividend can and will be maintained at US$0.47 per quarter and we increase our Target Price to 2,500p per share, given further sterling weakness.
Conviction List Q4 2016
05 Oct 16
Since its inception in 2010, the Conviction List has outperformed the market in 13 of 18 periods and a reinvested Conviction List would have returned 255% against a Small Companies index that would have returned 130%. Our Conviction List returned 3.7% over the last quarter; this was set against the benchmark UK Small Companies index that returned 11.3% over the same period. Our Q4 portfolio reflects our outlook for a temporary sweet spot for UK growth during the second half of 2016. The downside risk from the uncertainty of the EU Referendum result has been countered by stimulus from the Bank of England, signs of a looser fiscal stance and an 18% YoY reduction in the Sterling Exchange Rate. Compressed corporate fixed income spreads continue to provide a valuation underpin for global equities.
Extending Lancaster along the Rona Ridge
23 Nov 16
In September 2016, the 205/21a-7 pilot well helped confirm a continuous oil column below Lancaster basement structural closure. Hurricane is looking to extend this play along the Rona Ridge through the exploration of analogues, Lincoln and Halifax. Management estimates combined gross unrisked prospective resource of over 500mmbbls, offering potential for a significant increase to the 300mmbls we currently assume for Lancaster. In our updated valuation, we incorporate the dilutive impact of Hurricane’s October 2016 fund-raise, offset by the inclusion of risked prospective value for Lincoln and Halifax. Our RENAV increases from 73p/share to 75p/share (+3%).