Research, Charts & Company Announcements
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RAGING RIVER EXPLORATION INC
RAGING RIVER EXPLORATION INC
Reports Solid Second Quarter Results
12 Aug 16
Raging River reported second quarter financial and operating results that were in line with our estimates, highlighted by positive earnings generation in the period, illustrative of a highly economic top line revenue and enviable cost structure, coupled with affirmation of a disciplined acquisition strategy since inception. There are essentially zero changes to our forward outlook. We reiterate a $13.50/sh 12-month target price and Outperform ranking.
2Q16e Quarterly Preview
26 Jul 16
Some Recovery on Segmented Cash Flow Generation Over Q1 Though Still Down 56% Y/Y. In aggregate, the Intermediate, Mid, and Small Cap groups are expected to generate 2Q16e cash flow of $1,281 mm, $183 mm, and $53 mm, or $1.517 billion in total, that while depressed relative to the same period last year (~$2.647 billion combined), is up 17% sequentially from the prior quarter, largely on the strength of crude oil price recovery in the period. Severely weak natural gas pricing picture markedly reversed into summer, market likely to ignore financials for natural gas producers and look ahead to winter and formalization of sell-side 2018e estimates in coming months. Spot AECO natural gas prices recently crested C$2.60/mcf, and with a reasonable alignment of previously distressed NE BC Stn2 differentials, augmented by a withdrawal expected next week, view the market psyche as constructive and looking ahead, with the analogy that this market is shaping up to mirror 2012 still holding. That said, with crude oil poised to retest support levels, combined with strong stock price performance broadly observed YTD, we would characterize sentiment as slightly pessimistic in the near-term which could reduce or unwind momentum-based investment strategies that have worked thus far in 2016.
Announces Operations Update, Forgan Land Consolidation and Increased 2016 Guidance, Approval for Rock Energy Acquisition
22 Jul 16
An increased 2016 budget prompts slight boost to production estimates, despite a modestly trailing 2Q16 production figure. Consolidation of land at Forgan is positive and consistent with Corporate aggregation strategy, further expanding the Viking footprint.
ANNOUNCES OPERATIONS UPDATE, FORGAN LAND CONSOLIDATION AND INCREASED 2016 GUIDANCE, APPROVAL FOR ROCK ENERGY (RE) ACQUISITION
21 Jul 16
Impact: Neutral. 2Q16 production slightly trailed both FirstEnergy and consensus estimates, however, a modestly increased 2016 budget should bring annual production volumes above our prior expectations.
Raging River Announces Corporate Acquisition of Rock Energy
02 Jun 16
Raging River has entered into an agreement to acquire Rock Energy in an all share deal valued at $109 mm (inclusive of $67 mm in debt). Through this transaction, the Company adds 2,550 boe/d (95% oil), of which 1,950 bbl/d is outside Raging River’s core Viking asset base and producing from Rock’s heavy oil assets primarily at Mantario. Our proforma forecast portrays the transaction as 8% accretive to 2017e CFPS all while maintaining the Company’s balance sheet flexibility and strong production growth profile. We have increased our target price to $13.25 per share and are maintaining our Outperform recommendation.
ANNOUNCES CORPORATE ACQUISITION OF ROCK ENERGY INC. (RE)
01 Jun 16
Impact: Positive. The corporate acquisition of Rock Energy adds another layer of high quality, light oil Viking inventory at Kerrobert complementary to Raging River's existing position. While the market may be initially uncertain of the heavy oil barrels acquired from the Mantario pool, we view this as an opportunistic transaction at a low in the commodity cycle that may ultimately reside only temporary at Raging River. Further, tax pools of $208 mm will aid in reducing the Company's payable cash taxes in the near term, with our initial estimates pegging the value of these pools at ~$20 mm, a testament to the profitability of the business despite deteriorating crude prices.
The Slide Rule
12 Jan 17
What is The Slide Rule? The Slide Rule has been designed to dramatically simplify the identification of the best companies in the UK small/mid-cap sector by making a quantitative assessment of the relative potential of each company. At its core, The Slide Rule aims to identify those companies that create genuine shareholder value through strong returns on capital and solid growth, but also present a value opportunity with the potential tailwind of earnings momentum. Companies are assessed within a Quality, Value, Growth and Momentum (QVGM) framework.
The Monthly January 2017
09 Jan 17
Despite all the hullaballoo of the Brexit vote and the subsequent election of Donald Trump as the next US President, the UK stock market prospered last year, especially in the latter few months of 2016. The combination of a depreciating currency – making $ earnings more valuable in relative terms - and the Trump emphasis on infrastructure expenditure drove the stock market higher
Small Cap Breakfast
17 Jan 17
Global Energy Development (GED.L) — To be renamed Nautilus Marine Services. Schedule 1 from developer and seller of hydrocarbons and related products. Reverse takeover. Raising $10.5m via a convertible. Expected 9 Feb. Eco (Atlantic) Oil & Gas—TSX-V listed oil and gas exploration has announced its intention to float on AIM. Assets in Guyana and Namibia. Proposed £2m-£3m fundraise. Diversified Gas & Oil—According to LSE website first day of trading on AIM now expected for 30 January.
Minor delay but lower cost and better visibility enhance the investment profile
13 Jan 17
First oil at Stella is delayed by about a month, reducing the contribution of Stella to FY17 production by the same period. While this has an impact on FY17e free cash flow, this is negligible to our valuation. More importantly, FY17 opex are estimated at only US$18/boe, below our estimates of US$20/boe. There are opportunities to reduce opex further. Harrier is expected to reach first oil in 2018, one year earlier than we expected and at a cost of US$40 mm lower than we anticipated. The overall development cost is less than US$6.0/boe. Ithaca holds numerous discoveries around Stella that would be developed with a similar cost structure to Harrier.
10 for 17
09 Jan 17
As always at the start of a year, there are significant uncertainties about the year ahead but I think in 2017, the level of uncertainly has decisively moved up a gear. In fact, a leading economist at the LSE, Ethan Ilzetzki, was recently quoted as saying “I view the current global economic environment as the most uncertain in modern history”. Wow.