Research, Charts & Company Announcements
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STRIKER EXPLORATION CORP
STRIKER EXPLORATION CORP
2Q16e Quarterly Preview
26 Jul 16
Some Recovery on Segmented Cash Flow Generation Over Q1 Though Still Down 56% Y/Y. In aggregate, the Intermediate, Mid, and Small Cap groups are expected to generate 2Q16e cash flow of $1,281 mm, $183 mm, and $53 mm, or $1.517 billion in total, that while depressed relative to the same period last year (~$2.647 billion combined), is up 17% sequentially from the prior quarter, largely on the strength of crude oil price recovery in the period. Severely weak natural gas pricing picture markedly reversed into summer, market likely to ignore financials for natural gas producers and look ahead to winter and formalization of sell-side 2018e estimates in coming months. Spot AECO natural gas prices recently crested C$2.60/mcf, and with a reasonable alignment of previously distressed NE BC Stn2 differentials, augmented by a withdrawal expected next week, view the market psyche as constructive and looking ahead, with the analogy that this market is shaping up to mirror 2012 still holding. That said, with crude oil poised to retest support levels, combined with strong stock price performance broadly observed YTD, we would characterize sentiment as slightly pessimistic in the near-term which could reduce or unwind momentum-based investment strategies that have worked thus far in 2016.
Striker Exploration Corp. Announces Business Combination With Gear Energy Ltd.
08 Jun 16
The transaction provides shareholders of Striker with a larger, more diversified and better capitalized combined entity that has an established production base from the Gear assets, which will provide stable cash flow in an improved commodity price environment to continue to delineate and develop Striker’s emerging Belly River play. The transaction is subject to the customary court and regulatory approvals along with the approval of both the Striker and Gear shareholders. That said, directors and officers of Striker and certain shareholders of Striker, whom in aggregate represent 33.2% of the outstanding shares, have unanimously approved the transaction and entered into voting support agreements with Gear. In light of the acquisition agreement, we have placed a Tender ranking on the stock while placing our target price under review, as we are currently restricted on Gear Energy due to our participation in the Company’s concurrent equity financing. Our revised target price would have been based on applying the 2.325x exchange ratio to our Gear target price.
Announces 1Q16 Results, No Update on Strategic Alternatives Process
27 May 16
Striker reported its 1Q16 financial results that were in line with our expectations in terms of production and spending, although trailed our thinking in terms of cash flow due to lower realized pricing and higher operating costs.
Announces Fourth Quarter Results
27 Apr 16
Striker reported its year-end financial results that were reasonably in line with expectations, apart from cash flow which trailed our thinking on the back of higher operating costs. Recall, reserves were reported in March and were largely flat across the PDP and 1P categories, although were up modestly on a 2P basis. There was no update to the Company’s previously announced strategic alternatives process nor has Management provided any guidance for 2016e. With only minor tweaks to our forecast we have maintained both our Speculative Buy ranking and $2.00 per share target price.
M&A coming to a company near you?
16 Mar 17
Markets have retained their relative strength over the last fortnight. We have seen a mixed reaction to the Budget last week, the passing of the Brexit Bill earlier in the week and the first interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve in the US yesterday. Against this backdrop, we have seen some notable M&A activity across a range of sectors which may move down the market capitalisation scale. We now face an extended period of heightened speculation but “no running commentary” regarding Brexit in the UK after Article 50 is triggered at the end of the month.
Strong trading leads to upgrades
22 Mar 17
On the back of today’s positive trading update and slightly upgraded profit forecasts for FY2017, FY2018 and FY2019 we have reviewed our DCF analysis. This has led to an increased DCF valuation per share of 1500p (from 1200p) which we have made our new target price (from 1200p). Both TFP and JC Paper have contributed to the upgrades shown in the table below as have favourable currency movements. With the potential for further upgrades due to capitalising 3DP costs to come we maintain our Add recommendation.
The Momentum Continues - 2017 to be a Good Year
16 Mar 17
Welcome to IIR’s second “Blue Book” for Junior Resource Companies. This publication covers over 60 resource companies that were present at the 121 Group’s 2017 Cape Town Conference, held at Welgemeende in the Gardens district on February 6-7, 2016. The summaries in the book have been prepared with the assistance of the 121 Group based in London/ Hong Kong and Gavin Wendt from Minelife in Sydney, with the introduction being prepared by Mark Gordon and Gavin Wendt. The company information is accurate as at the time of the conference – and further information on the companies can be provided upon request.
Bang to rights
21 Mar 17
Tullow unexpectedly announced a US$750m rights issue on Friday at a 45.2% discount to the previous close. While this step confirms our investment thesis, the scale of the discount and the timing look like a slap in the face for investors and/or indicative of a weaker financial position than we are modelling. We publish revised estimates to reflect the impact of the issue and cut our Target Price to 215p per share (from 245p). We maintain our Hold recommendation.
Panmure Morning Note 22-03-2017
22 Mar 17
Acacia Mining and Endeavour Mining confirmed merger talks have now ended with Endeavour claiming an inability to “create adequate value for Endeavour shareholders”, most likely, we believe, given the disappointing ruling from the Tanzanian government on copper-gold concentrate sales. We were positive on the merger and believed a credible London listed Pan-African producer capable of challenging Randgold, would have been established. We make no change to our Hold recommendation today, and expect the shares to be marked lower in early trade.