Research, Charts & Company Announcements
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STRIKER EXPLORATION CORP
STRIKER EXPLORATION CORP
2Q16e Quarterly Preview
26 Jul 16
Some Recovery on Segmented Cash Flow Generation Over Q1 Though Still Down 56% Y/Y. In aggregate, the Intermediate, Mid, and Small Cap groups are expected to generate 2Q16e cash flow of $1,281 mm, $183 mm, and $53 mm, or $1.517 billion in total, that while depressed relative to the same period last year (~$2.647 billion combined), is up 17% sequentially from the prior quarter, largely on the strength of crude oil price recovery in the period. Severely weak natural gas pricing picture markedly reversed into summer, market likely to ignore financials for natural gas producers and look ahead to winter and formalization of sell-side 2018e estimates in coming months. Spot AECO natural gas prices recently crested C$2.60/mcf, and with a reasonable alignment of previously distressed NE BC Stn2 differentials, augmented by a withdrawal expected next week, view the market psyche as constructive and looking ahead, with the analogy that this market is shaping up to mirror 2012 still holding. That said, with crude oil poised to retest support levels, combined with strong stock price performance broadly observed YTD, we would characterize sentiment as slightly pessimistic in the near-term which could reduce or unwind momentum-based investment strategies that have worked thus far in 2016.
Striker Exploration Corp. Announces Business Combination With Gear Energy Ltd.
08 Jun 16
The transaction provides shareholders of Striker with a larger, more diversified and better capitalized combined entity that has an established production base from the Gear assets, which will provide stable cash flow in an improved commodity price environment to continue to delineate and develop Striker’s emerging Belly River play. The transaction is subject to the customary court and regulatory approvals along with the approval of both the Striker and Gear shareholders. That said, directors and officers of Striker and certain shareholders of Striker, whom in aggregate represent 33.2% of the outstanding shares, have unanimously approved the transaction and entered into voting support agreements with Gear. In light of the acquisition agreement, we have placed a Tender ranking on the stock while placing our target price under review, as we are currently restricted on Gear Energy due to our participation in the Company’s concurrent equity financing. Our revised target price would have been based on applying the 2.325x exchange ratio to our Gear target price.
Announces 1Q16 Results, No Update on Strategic Alternatives Process
27 May 16
Striker reported its 1Q16 financial results that were in line with our expectations in terms of production and spending, although trailed our thinking in terms of cash flow due to lower realized pricing and higher operating costs.
Announces Fourth Quarter Results
27 Apr 16
Striker reported its year-end financial results that were reasonably in line with expectations, apart from cash flow which trailed our thinking on the back of higher operating costs. Recall, reserves were reported in March and were largely flat across the PDP and 1P categories, although were up modestly on a 2P basis. There was no update to the Company’s previously announced strategic alternatives process nor has Management provided any guidance for 2016e. With only minor tweaks to our forecast we have maintained both our Speculative Buy ranking and $2.00 per share target price.
01 Nov 16
Since our last outlook note, Quadrise has begun to supply MSAR for extended LONO sea trials, paving the way for commercial adoption from calendar H217 onwards. In August it signed a memorandum of understanding with clients in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA), which is a key enabler for progressing the production-to-combustion pilot there. In October it completed a placing and open offer raising a total of £5.25m (gross). This should enable it to transition comfortably to the commercial phase on successful completion of the LONO and KSA trials.
GTL transaction not going ahead
01 Dec 16
Intelligent Energy (IEH) has announced that the deal to acquire the Energy Management Business of GTL will not now be consummated. The move leaves management free to concentrate on driving sales of commercially ready B2B products, which is a key element of its strategy. We adjust our FY17e revenue estimate while leaving our pre-exceptional losses and cash-flow forecasts unchanged.
GMP FirstEnergy ― UK Energy morning research package
30 Nov 16
Gran Tierra (GTE CN)1, 6; BUY, C$5.50: Equity financing and acquisition of two blocks from Ecopetrol | Northern Petroleum (NOP LN)1; SPECUATIVE BUY, £0.15: Farm out and equity issue | President Energy (PPC LN) (not covered): IFC Equity Subscription | Primeline Energy (PEH CN) (not covered): 2Q16 Results ended 30 September 2016 | Faroe Petroleum (FPM LN)6 ; BUY, £1.20: Oda update in Norway | Jersey Oil & Gas (JOG LN)1 ; Under Review: Placing | SacOil (SAC LN/SCL SJ)1 : SPECULATIVE BUY, £0.016, Trading Update
24 Nov 16
Quixant* (QXT): Gaming gains (CORP) | SCISYS* (SSY): Bringing good news from Germany (CORP) | Hayward Tyler Group*: Contract wins (CORP) | Sound Energy (SOU): TE-7 flow rate and fund raise (BUY) | Water Intelligence* (WATR): Growth and improving returns in a defensive market (CORP) | Imaginatik* (IMTK): Interim trading update (CORP)
Operating profits and net cash position – restored; market outlook – precarious
01 Dec 16
The turnaround was noticeable Lonmin’s full-year (September-ending) results were ahead of consensus and AV’s estimates. Sales came in at $1.1bn (-14% yoy) as the average realised (USD-denominated) PGM prices and sales volumes were down yoy 12% and 2%, respectively. However, platinum sales (736koz) were much ahead of earlier guidance (700koz) – thanks to certain smelting/processing efficiencies, which helped more than offset the impact of reorganisation-related disruptions. After two consecutive years (FY14-15) of hefty operating losses, Lonmin finally reported an adjusted operating profit (even though feeble) of $7m. This was facilitated by the record weakness in the South African rand (down from ZAR12/$ in FY15 to ZAR14.77/$ in FY16) and ZAR1.3bn of cost savings – 86% higher than the earlier target. Disappointingly, Lonmin recognised $335m of asset impairments (vs. $1.8bn in FY2015), which resulted in a full-year net loss of $400m. But the turnaround in reported OCFs – inflow of $58m vs. an outflow of $12m – was a much-needed improvement, which, along with conservative capex (-35% yoy) of $87m, resulted in a net cash position of $173m (with no short-term repayments) vs. a net debt position of $185m (at end-FY15). But the guidance spells caution For FY17, management targets conservative platinum sales of 650-680koz, while unit costs are expected to remain under pressure – ZAR10,800-11,300/oz vs. ZAR10,748/oz achieved in FY16. On the other hand, capex plans would be aggressive – ZAR1.8bn (which includes ZAR400m for the tailings project – already delayed by almost two years) vs. ZAR1.3bn spent in FY16.
Raising Target Price to 2,500p per share
01 Nov 16
Royal Dutch reported clean EPS of US$0.35, nearly 50% ahead of consensus. More importantly, cash flow jumped QoQ to US$8.5bn which should go a long way to confirming Shell’s capacity to maintain the current dividend, despite the increase in gearing to 29.2%. Upstream returned to profitability on an underlying basis for the first time since 1Q15. We believe these results confirm our view that Shell’s dividend can and will be maintained at US$0.47 per quarter and we increase our Target Price to 2,500p per share, given further sterling weakness.