Research, Charts & Company Announcements
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TOURMALINE OIL CORP
TOURMALINE OIL CORP
Tourmaline Announces Second Quarter Results
04 Aug 16
Tourmaline released second quarter financial and operating results that were in line with our forecast, characterized by another period of sequential unit cost reductions, and augmented by lower E&D capital investment, the latter while a traditional hallmark of second quarter results, nonetheless affirms our view that Tourmaline will demonstrate industry leading capital efficiencies ahead. There are no material changes to our 2016e forecast. We are increasing our 2017e volume forecast, now in line with guidance at 215,000 boe/d through a modestly increased cash flow budget on the current forward strip. We are increasing our 12-month target price to $45.00/sh. We rank the stock as a Top Pick and would continue to invest in Tourmaline at current levels.
2Q16e Quarterly Preview
26 Jul 16
Some Recovery on Segmented Cash Flow Generation Over Q1 Though Still Down 56% Y/Y. In aggregate, the Intermediate, Mid, and Small Cap groups are expected to generate 2Q16e cash flow of $1,281 mm, $183 mm, and $53 mm, or $1.517 billion in total, that while depressed relative to the same period last year (~$2.647 billion combined), is up 17% sequentially from the prior quarter, largely on the strength of crude oil price recovery in the period. Severely weak natural gas pricing picture markedly reversed into summer, market likely to ignore financials for natural gas producers and look ahead to winter and formalization of sell-side 2018e estimates in coming months. Spot AECO natural gas prices recently crested C$2.60/mcf, and with a reasonable alignment of previously distressed NE BC Stn2 differentials, augmented by a withdrawal expected next week, view the market psyche as constructive and looking ahead, with the analogy that this market is shaping up to mirror 2012 still holding. That said, with crude oil poised to retest support levels, combined with strong stock price performance broadly observed YTD, we would characterize sentiment as slightly pessimistic in the near-term which could reduce or unwind momentum-based investment strategies that have worked thus far in 2016.
Intermediates, Mid Caps & Small Cap Commodity Price Update
23 Jun 16
With this publication we highlight forecast revisions associated with our commodity price update (Natural Gas Update; Crude Oil Update), reaffirming a view of commodity price recovery in 2017e. In the interim until then, 2016e Canadian oil price realizations are up ~11% in the synthetic and Edmonton Light streams, with heavy WCS crude up ~20% which is amplified by Canadian oilsands output curtailments. While 2016e Canadian natural gas prices are projected to be ~20% lower, we expect much of this effect to be mitigated by strong hedging positions this year, and remain focused on price recovery next year with very strong increases reflected in both the strip and our revised forecast. Overall, broad valuations are flat to slightly higher coming out of this exercise, with oil/ liquids levered entities observing the highest 2017e CFO uptick. We remain constructive on the space, though the market will need to look past a trough of potentially weak pricing this summer.
Tourmaline Revises 2016 Production Guidance, Provides Operations Update
16 Jun 16
Tourmaline has lowered its 2016e production guidance by ~4% at the mid-point as a result of third party infrastructure issues and deferral of well completions due to low gas prices. We’ve adjusted our 2016e production outlook to the higher end of the revised range, which results in a 3% reduction to cash flow for the year. Our 2017e outlook is unchanged and remains conservatively below Management guidance. We have modestly reduced our 12-month target price to $43.50 per share (from $43.75 per share) and maintain our Outperform ranking.
Announces First Quarter Results, Impressive Record Cost Structure, Expect Market to Focus on Capital Discipline
05 May 16
Tourmaline released first quarter financial and operating results that were ahead of forecast. While CFO was materially ahead of expectations, the Company’s E&D capital investment in the period was substantially below our expectations, and we believe the market will see capital discipline as positive in the subsequent trading sessions, all else equal. We have increased our 12-month target price to $43.75/sh. We rank the stock as an Outperform and would invest at current levels.
30 Nov 16
Abzena (ABZA): Interim results indicate happy customers (BUY) | Horizonte Minerals* (HZM): Fund raise completed (CORP) | SacOil* (SAC): Half-year trading statement (CORP) | Revolution Bars (RBG): New openings (BUY) | Amino Technologies* (AMO): Multi operator FUSION roll out (CORP)
Small Cap Breakfast
29 Nov 16
Asia Pacific Investment Partner - the research-driven emerging and frontier markets real estate development business intends to float on AIM and conduct a placing in December RM Secured Direct Lending - The secured direct lending fund intends to float on the Main Market on 15 December raising up to £100m Diversified Oil & Gas— Schedule One now out. $60m to be raised. Expected admission 6 December. Creo Medical Group —UK based medical device company focused on surgical endoscopy, a recent development in minimally invasive surgery. Admission due 7 December. Fundraising details TBA.
24 Nov 16
Quixant* (QXT): Gaming gains (CORP) | SCISYS* (SSY): Bringing good news from Germany (CORP) | Hayward Tyler Group*: Contract wins (CORP) | Sound Energy (SOU): TE-7 flow rate and fund raise (BUY) | Water Intelligence* (WATR): Growth and improving returns in a defensive market (CORP) | Imaginatik* (IMTK): Interim trading update (CORP)
Small Cap Breakfast
28 Nov 16
Warpaint London—Schedule one update. Raising £2.5m at 97p. Expected mkt cap £62.6m vs revenues of £22.3m Walls & Futures REIT — Has raised £1m at £1 to acquire, refurbish or develop residential properties in the UK . Due to arrive on ISDX on 29 November Diversified Oil & Gas— Schedule One now out. $60m to be raised. Expected admission 6 December. Creo Medical Group —UK based medical device company focused on surgical endoscopy, a recent development in minimally invasive surgery. Admission due 7 December. Fundraising details TBA.