Research, Charts & Company Announcements
Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on TRILOGY ENERGY CORP. We currently have 22 research reports from 1 professional analysts.
Frequency of research reports
Research reports on
TRILOGY ENERGY CORP
TRILOGY ENERGY CORP
Announces Second Quarter Financial and Operating Results
08 Aug 16
While the quarter modestly trailed our expectations, Trilogy’s spending represented only 11% of cash flow while reining in operating costs, and observing only modest production declines which should situate the Company well for 2H16e where more drilling activity is planned. With this release, we have made no material changes to our estimates, though note that operational catalysts will be ramping up in 2H16e. Sustained improvements to drilling costs may lead to a bump to our reinvestment efficiencies as more capital is deployed throughout the year. We are increasing our 12 month target price to $6.00 per share while electing to maintain our Market Perform ranking on the stock.
ANNOUNCES SECOND QUARTER FINANCIAL AND OPERATING RESULTS
05 Aug 16
Impact: Neutral. While the quarter trailed our expectations, Trilogy has managed to hold spending under cash flow while reining in operating costs, which should situate the Company well for 2H16e where more drilling activity is planned.
2Q16e Quarterly Preview
26 Jul 16
Some Recovery on Segmented Cash Flow Generation Over Q1 Though Still Down 56% Y/Y. In aggregate, the Intermediate, Mid, and Small Cap groups are expected to generate 2Q16e cash flow of $1,281 mm, $183 mm, and $53 mm, or $1.517 billion in total, that while depressed relative to the same period last year (~$2.647 billion combined), is up 17% sequentially from the prior quarter, largely on the strength of crude oil price recovery in the period. Severely weak natural gas pricing picture markedly reversed into summer, market likely to ignore financials for natural gas producers and look ahead to winter and formalization of sell-side 2018e estimates in coming months. Spot AECO natural gas prices recently crested C$2.60/mcf, and with a reasonable alignment of previously distressed NE BC Stn2 differentials, augmented by a withdrawal expected next week, view the market psyche as constructive and looking ahead, with the analogy that this market is shaping up to mirror 2012 still holding. That said, with crude oil poised to retest support levels, combined with strong stock price performance broadly observed YTD, we would characterize sentiment as slightly pessimistic in the near-term which could reduce or unwind momentum-based investment strategies that have worked thus far in 2016.
ANNOUNCES AMENDMENTS TO ITS CREDIT FACILITY; BORROWING BASE LOWERED, COVENANTS RELAXED
17 May 16
Impact: Neutral to slightly negative. The re-determination to $300 mm removes some margin of error for Trilogy and brings total borrowing capacity closer to our net debt estimate exiting 2Q16e, which is not ideal. That being said, our current estimates have Trilogy spending at or below cash flow for the remainder of the year on both FirstEnergy and current forward strip pricing, which should assist with deleveraging efforts moving into 2017e.
1Q16 Results Behind Expectations, Resource Preservation Theme of Capital Program
06 May 16
Given natural declines and voluntary shut-in of uneconomic production, Trilogy’s production was 2% shy of our expectations, alongside a slightly higher natural gas bias. Cash flow of $9.1 mm or $0.07 per share was behind FirstEnergy and consensus estimates of $0.10 per share. Capital spending of $22.3 mm outpaced cash flow as the Company addressed expiry issues in the Duvernay while taking advantage of notably improving well costs in its Montney oil and gas plays.
Strong trading leads to upgrades
22 Mar 17
On the back of today’s positive trading update and slightly upgraded profit forecasts for FY2017, FY2018 and FY2019 we have reviewed our DCF analysis. This has led to an increased DCF valuation per share of 1500p (from 1200p) which we have made our new target price (from 1200p). Both TFP and JC Paper have contributed to the upgrades shown in the table below as have favourable currency movements. With the potential for further upgrades due to capitalising 3DP costs to come we maintain our Add recommendation.
Small Cap Breakfast
21 Mar 17
First Sentinel—Investment company expecting NEX admission/introduction on 24 March. £636k raised pre-IPO. BioPharma Credit—Expected Gross Initial Acquisition Proceeds now c.$338m. Gross Cash Proceeds capped at $423m with placing and open offer. Results expected 23 March with admission now due 30 march. Tufton Oceanic Assets- The Company intends to invest in a diversified portfolio of second hand commercial sea-going vessels where the Investment Manager believes that an attractive opportunity exists in shipping. $150m raise. Admission 3 April.
Bang to rights
21 Mar 17
Tullow unexpectedly announced a US$750m rights issue on Friday at a 45.2% discount to the previous close. While this step confirms our investment thesis, the scale of the discount and the timing look like a slap in the face for investors and/or indicative of a weaker financial position than we are modelling. We publish revised estimates to reflect the impact of the issue and cut our Target Price to 215p per share (from 245p). We maintain our Hold recommendation.
Panmure Morning Note 22-03-2017
22 Mar 17
Acacia Mining and Endeavour Mining confirmed merger talks have now ended with Endeavour claiming an inability to “create adequate value for Endeavour shareholders”, most likely, we believe, given the disappointing ruling from the Tanzanian government on copper-gold concentrate sales. We were positive on the merger and believed a credible London listed Pan-African producer capable of challenging Randgold, would have been established. We make no change to our Hold recommendation today, and expect the shares to be marked lower in early trade.