Research, Charts & Company Announcements
Research Tree provides access to ongoing research coverage, media content and regulatory news on IMPERIAL OIL LTD. We currently have 32 research reports from 1 professional analysts.
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IMPERIAL OIL LTD
IMPERIAL OIL LTD
Commodity Price Update – Impact on Integrateds, Large Cap E&P, Oilsands
28 Sep 16
3Q16e WTI prices look set to average ~US$44.50/bbl vs. our $50.00/bbl prior estimate. We have also reduced our 4Q16e WTI forecasts by US$5.00 to US$50.00/ bbl, but left our 2016e+ oil & gas price deck largely unchanged. For the second time in three months we are increasing our forecasts for Canadian refined product premiums relative to New York Harbor.
2016 Investor Day: Even Lower Sustaining Capital
22 Sep 16
IMO’s sustaining capex estimate is down 25% to $0.9 billion/year, and growth capex through 2020e is now expected to average ~50% less than a year ago, so there is even more room for IMO to return more cash to shareholders (perhaps beginning later this year?). Syncrude output for August was a new record (>375 mbbl/d) due to flush production, while Kearl has produced 280-290 mbbl/d in some weeks. Acquisition opportunities will be hard pressed to compete with IMO’s internal slate of SA-SAGD projects in our view. Target price increased by $3.00 to $43.00/share to reflect lower sustaining capital costs.
2016 INVESTOR DAY NOTES
21 Sep 16
Market Impact: Should be positive, given a reduced capex outlook, lower sustaining capital requirements, and a positive update on 3Q16e Syncrude volumes. The stock is underperforming today as we write this note, but from our perspective we observed no negative updates this morning.
10 MBBL/D NORMAN WELLS FIELD BEING MARKETED
12 Sep 16
Market Impact: Neutral. IMO has decided to investigate selling its legacy Norman Wells light oil field, which has generated a fine return for the Company since the $500 mm expansion began producing in 1985, yielding >250 mmbbl of light oil since.
Balance Sheet Maintained Despite Outages
08 Aug 16
2Q16 non-GAAP CFPS of $0.14/share dil. missed expectations, as two of its refineries underwent major planned turnarounds. Despite relatively low oil prices, planned downtime at two refineries and two oilsands projects, and the forest fires, IMO’s net debt was virtually unchanged sequentially, and $0.2 billion lower than we had forecast, as capex was low, product inventories built up in 1Q16 in preparation for refinery downtime were drawn down, and “other cash items” were once again a significant positive contributor. 2016e capex forecast reduced from $1.8 billion (original guidance) to $1.6 billion. Market Perform ranking and $40.00/share target price maintained.
Strong trading leads to upgrades
22 Mar 17
On the back of today’s positive trading update and slightly upgraded profit forecasts for FY2017, FY2018 and FY2019 we have reviewed our DCF analysis. This has led to an increased DCF valuation per share of 1500p (from 1200p) which we have made our new target price (from 1200p). Both TFP and JC Paper have contributed to the upgrades shown in the table below as have favourable currency movements. With the potential for further upgrades due to capitalising 3DP costs to come we maintain our Add recommendation.
Small Cap Breakfast
21 Mar 17
First Sentinel—Investment company expecting NEX admission/introduction on 24 March. £636k raised pre-IPO. BioPharma Credit—Expected Gross Initial Acquisition Proceeds now c.$338m. Gross Cash Proceeds capped at $423m with placing and open offer. Results expected 23 March with admission now due 30 march. Tufton Oceanic Assets- The Company intends to invest in a diversified portfolio of second hand commercial sea-going vessels where the Investment Manager believes that an attractive opportunity exists in shipping. $150m raise. Admission 3 April.
South Disouq spuds
20 Mar 17
SDX Energy announced this morning that it has spudded the South Disouq (SD-1X) well in Egypt, targeting gas and oil across a number of intervals. This is a high impact event for SDX Energy, as current company 2P reserves of 4.7mmboe (post acquisition) would be dwarfed by success at South Disouq (we model a 65mmboe field of which SDX holds 55% WI), which could be developed quickly due to existing pipeline infrastructure passing through the block. Our valuation for South Disouq is 6.8p/share, although on success we would expect notable de-risking. Our core NAV is 42p with a full NAV (including South Disouq) of 57p/share. The well is due to take 30-45 days, so we would expect a result in mid late April.