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Going for gold
30 Aug 16
Silver Wheaton’s (SLW’s) Q216 earnings were within 2.5% of our forecast and almost 50% better than the previous quarter (Q116). Performance was buoyed by record gold sales, driven by the continued ramp up at Salobo, a record production performance at Sudbury (which was almost 6,000oz ahead of our expectations), continued outperformance at Antamina (for a third consecutive quarter) and inventory drawdown (for a second consecutive quarter). As a result of increased precious metals’ prices, as well as the purchase of an additional gold stream at Salobo (see below), we have increased our earnings expectations for Q316, Q416 and FY16 by 60.0%, 46.7% and 27.3%, respectively.
Forecasts weighted to H2
25 May 16
After four quarters in which the production of both gold and silver achieved successive new records, output attributable to Silver Wheaton (SLW) moderated in Q116 – albeit to only the second-best ever – with good quarterly performances (again) from Antamina and Salobo offset by headwinds at San Dimas and SLW’s ‘other’ assets. However, sales of material closely approximated production, with the result that inventories decreased by 0.9Moz AgE.
Buying future growth
18 Apr 16
On 30 March, Silver Wheaton (SLW) announced a bought deal whereby a syndicate of underwriters would buy 30,125,000 common shares in the company at a price of US$16.60/share for aggregate gross proceeds of c US$500m plus an over-allotment option of a further 4,518,000 shares at the same price for proceeds of an additional c US$75m. One day later, on 31 March, the deal size was increased by 10% pro rata and it closed on 7 April (at which point SLW also took the opportunity to close its normal course issuer bid). On 11 April, the over-allotment option was exercised in full to bring total aggregate proceeds to US$632.5m. This note updates Edison’s forecasts for FY16 by quarter and valuation in the light of the increased number of shares in issue and decreased forecast net debt.
24 Mar 16
Notwithstanding a maiden contribution from Antamina, a strong performance at Silver Wheaton’s (SLW) gold division was complemented by an equally impressive performance from its silver division, with records set in both the production and sales of precious metals, as each of its cornerstone assets (Salobo, Penasquito, San Dimas and Antamina) performed in tandem. Constancia – which is in the process of ramping up – also performed better than our expectations. As a result, attributable silver-equivalent (AgE) production was 47.7Moz for the full year cf our forecast of 44.8Moz (and guidance of 45.0Moz). Excluding impairments, Q4 was therefore the best quarter of FY15 and SLW’s best since Q314 (when the average silver price was US$18.98/oz).
Q415e results, Cotabambas analysis and CRA
15 Feb 16
Silver Wheaton’s (SLW) Q4/FY15 results are scheduled for release on 16 March and will include the Antamina gold stream for the first time. Average gold and silver prices in the three-month period were slightly below our previous forecasts, at US$1,104/oz (vs US$1,112/oz) and US$14.75/oz (vs US$14.87/oz), respectively. Notwithstanding the inclusion of Antamina, SLW’s continued production guidance of 230,000oz Au for FY15 is indicative of a very strong Q4 for the gold division, in particular. Q4 is also the quarter in which production can tend to be ‘flushed through’ into sales.
Q3 results and Antamina stream purchase
11 Nov 15
Excluding a US$154.0m impairment charge relating to its 777-mine gold stream beyond 2020 (which was in any case omitted from our long-term forecasts), Silver Wheaton’s (SLW) Q315 results were closely in line with our expectations. PBT was 3.5% higher than our forecast; PAT was 2.6% lower due to a higher than expected tax charge. More significantly, SLW has acquired a new silver stream from the world-class Antamina copper mine in Peru that has caused us to increase both our earnings forecasts and valuation.
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