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Commercial progress and financial discipline
24 Oct 16
Carbios has reported H116 results showing solid progress on scaling up and industrialisation, with good cash management. As expected, losses continue to increase during this process. Although we expect this pattern to continue to the end of the Thanaplast project in mid-2017, we believe that, with €7m net cash at 30 June, Carbios is sufficiently funded until the project’s completion. We have updated our forecasts and our valuation range is unchanged at €23-37 per share.
VSA Agri Monthly
28 Jun 16
VSA Agri Thought for the Month It is hard to forecast the precise impact on UK farming from the recent Brexit vote but we would highlight a few areas: Subsidies: Annual subsides of c£3bn are currently paid to UK farmers. Farming Minister George Eustice has previously said that support would be maintained following a Brexit vote. Farmers will be anxious to see this happen. However, money may be saved through a cap on the maximum payout for the largest farms. Regulation: How will regulations change as we exit the EU Common Agricultural Policy? Farmers will look for regulations to be simplified and more tailored to the UK. Exports: A weaker currency should increase the attractiveness of UK farming exports, offset by any increased cost from raw material imports and any newly imposed trade tariffs. Labour: UK farming is heavily reliant on seasonal agricultural workers, many from other EU states. The UK government has previously looked to encourage the employment of more UK workers on-farm but how will things change for those bringing in workers from abroad?
VSA Agri Monthly
28 Jul 16
VSA Agri Thought for the Month Leading Brexiteer Andrea Leadsom was appointed Secretary of State for the Department of Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA) this month. Perhaps one of the most unenviable jobs in the new UK government, given the importance of EU subsidies to the country’s farming sector. Agra Europe estimated last year that up to 90% of UK farms would not survive without them. Given that the EU Common Agricultural Policy has long been criticised by environmentalists and free-market proponents alike, leaving the scheme is likely to be viewed positively by many. But what comes next? We believe we are likely to see some sort of reduction of subsidies (particularly for the largest farms and most uneconomic activities) as well as greater exposure to foreign imports through additional free trade agreements. We feel a focus on technology and a push for “efficiency” will also be high on the agenda, which could provide a boost to AgTech companies developing products in this area.
N+1 Singer - Morning Song 18-10-2016
18 Oct 16
1Spatial delivered a soft first half performance showing slower revenue development in its higher-margin Geospatial business, thereby impacting overall adjusted EBITDA. The group has a strong order book (of which the Geospatial component is up 30% y-o-y) and has built up a solid pipeline of opportunities which it expects to convert in the next six months. As such, the group is maintaining guidance for the year, albeit performance will be heavily H2-weighted. We believe the 1.1x EV/Sales and 6.2x EV/EBITDA Jan’17 rating does not reflect the potential of an IP-rich, productised business that is leveraging partnerships to scale growth – but recognise that stronger revenue traction is required to buoy confidence and drive the re-rating of the shares.
N+1 Singer - Morning Song 09-09-2016
09 Sep 16
Summit continues to make strong progress with its utrophin modulation and C. difficile infection (CDI) programmes. Ezutromid has commenced a Phase II proof-of-concept trial (PhaseOut DMD) in the UK, with the first muscle biopsy data expected Q2/Q3 2017. A placebo controlled trial is expected to start in H2 2017, assuming positive interim data from the PhaseOut DMD trial. Ridinilazole Phase III options are currently being evaluated for CDI and we expect an update later in the year. We remain positive on the group’s future prospects and its significant market potential.
Pharmaceuticals made the pace
28 Jul 16
Management lifted FY guidance after another strong quarter. Sales weakened 1% to €11,883m (volumes: +4%; prices: -2%; FX: -4%) in Q2, but the gross profit margin improved further (57.5% after 56.1%). EBITDA grew +12% to €2,952m and net profit attributable to shareholders rose +19% to €1,448m. Despite the stronger operating performance, operating CF stood fairly unchanged at €1,982m as NWC outflow strongly moved up from €-205m to €-374m, hit by significantly higher other changes in working capital (€-773m after €-51m). Investing CF moved from €-527m to €-1,245m driven by higher outflows for current and non-current financial assets. Financing CF swung from €334m to €-3,235m primarily due to the more than €3bn swing in debt moving from net gross debt proceeds of €2,349m to net gross debt repayments of €-950m. Management adjusted the detailed 2016 guidance, now expecting sales of €46-47bn (above €47bn) and EBITDA before one-offs is seen to increase at a high single-digit (mid-single) percentage.